January 2021 weather observations for the PNW

[Blizzard777]

33 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

 

Vancouver totals keep getting cut back. Rough time for the neighbors 

Lol, as we discussed. Never good to be the in the target zone!!!   So as long as we stay quiet perhaps our location will be chosen on the final hour of the event! 

[SouthHillFrosty]

2 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

Lol, as we discussed. Never good to be the in the target zone!!!   So as long as we stay quiet perhaps our location will be chosen on the final hour of the event! 

We can pray!! We live in a donut hole unfortunately!

[ShawniganLake]

Nice to feel the north wind today. 
 

many ensemble members show arctic air in the BC interior going forward. At least it’s nearby

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

19 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

12z Euro shows lowland snow chances practically all next week...

Sunday morning: SW WA/NW OR

Sunday night/Monday morning: N Sound, CZ-signature over Central Sound, light snow NW OR

Tuesday morning: Light snow NW Interior

Tuesday night/Wednesday morning: NW OR to BLI

Thursday morning: Light snow in the Central Sound

Friday night: A little more light snow around Puget Sound

That is a lot of opportunities for surprises. 

Winter over by next weekend?

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Out one week. Pretty good bet a lot of the Oregon low elevations will be seeing flakes.

[TT-SEA]

Some chilly nights next week per the 12Z ECMWF...

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Some chilly nights next week per the 12Z ECMWF...

 

Brrrrr... Highs in the low 40s.

[FroYoBro]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Brrrrr... Highs in the low 40s.

What did you expect, highs in the 20s? 
 

You aren’t very good at this weather thing. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, FroYoBro said:

What did you expect, highs in the 20s? 
 

You aren’t very good at this weather thing. 

Some impressive stuff. 

[AlTahoe]

Interesting to note that the Euro just joined the GFS on the mega storm for my area. Gfs was two days ahead of the Euro again like the previous pattern change. Way to go GFS! Assuming the storm actually happens 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Did the 12z EURO still show 2" of snow for Sacramento? 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Did the 12z EURO still show 2" of snow for Sacramento? 

And maybe YOLO county too?

Hell, even the I-5 corridor in San Joaquin, Stanislaus, Merced, Fresno, and Kings counties could all see flakes...absolutely insane.

Here's the ensemble out to 300hrs

[SouthHillFrosty]

4 minutes ago, 1000'NorthBend said:

0.14” of rain this morning, sitting at comfy 39.7°F. 

Why specifically does that area do poorly with snow (and rain?) in comparison to other lowland Puget Sound locations? Assuming it has something to do with the Olympics but not sure of specifics.

With a low coming in from the north, we often get shadowed from precipitation since the precipitation cannot reach around the bottom of the Olympic mountains! There is a couple other factors also but that is the main detractor.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Meteograms should hopefully be fun.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

9 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

And maybe YOLO county too?

Hell, even the I-5 corridor in San Joaquin, Stanislaus, Merced, Fresno, and Kings counties could all see flakes...absolutely insane.

Here's the ensemble out to 300hrs

Time to take a trip to find some real winter!

[Cloud]

19 minutes ago, 1000'NorthBend said:

0.14” of rain this morning, sitting at comfy 39.7°F. 

Why specifically does that area do poorly with snow (and rain?) in comparison to other lowland Puget Sound locations? Assuming it has something to do with the Olympics but not sure of specifics.

It’s all about the trajectory of the storm. Our really good snowstorms typically comes from the N. If it slides in from the NW, the south sound will typically be shadowed by the Olympics. If it comes in from the W (making a slight detour to out then curve back in over the Olympics) then Central sound will be shadowed. 
 

The Olympics can be great but it can also be a pain for snow lovers. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

5 minutes ago, Cloud said:

It’s all about the trajectory of the storm. Our really good snowstorms typically comes from the N. If it slides in from the NW, the south sound will typically be shadowed by the Olympics. If it comes in from the W (making a slide detour to out then curve back in over the Olympics) then Central sound will be shadowed. 
 

The Olympics can be great but it can also be a pain for snow lovers. 

Exactly just dependent on the area. For the South Sound, some of the best snow storms normally coming in from the south. If it comes in from the south, nobody down here misses out and get's shadowed. 

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS...

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z EPS...

 

Well that sucks.

[Cloud]

4 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Exactly just dependent on the area. For the South Sound, some of the best snow storms normally coming in from the south. If it comes in from the south, nobody down here misses out and get's shadowed. 

Yeah, the southern track storms or the  ones we usually see tend to pack more juicy moisture. Imo for snow to work out with these storms we have have cold in place already. Typically overrunning and will scour out the cold sooner with the southern component. But they will produce a lot of snow. 

the “perfect” track happens to be storms sliding in from the north and making landfall south of the Olympics. Lots of cold air then being wrapped around it. Only downside to this track is Whatcom will miss out. I believe a lot of our Feb 2019 storms took this path. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

That Super Bowl Sunday storm in 2017 was memorable, even though we didn't get much snow from it down here. Great event for parts of Western Washington, but even Astoria on the N. Oregon Coast had some pretty good snowfall with it. If I recall, I believe Jesse went out there during the event. Of course Tom Brady also caused quite a stir that evening, leading his Patriots to a compelling come from behind Super Bowl victory! It poured all evening down here, we got over 2" of rain, and then as the front moved through it switched over to snow and we got a couple inches. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

7 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Yeah, the southern track storms or the  ones we usually see tend to pack more juicy moisture. Imo for snow to work out with these storms we have have cold in place already. Typically overrunning and will scour out the cold sooner with the southern component. But they will produce a lot of snow. 

the “perfect” track happens to be storms sliding in from the north and making landfall south of the Olympics. Lots of cold air then being wrapped around it. Only downside to this track is Whatcom will miss out. I believe a lot of our Feb 2019 storms took this path. 

That is true. Very hard to get however

[bainbridgekid]

Just noticed how snowy the 12z NAM is for Oregon.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, bainbridgekid said:

Just noticed how snowy the 12z NAM is for Oregon.

 

That doesn't even make sense. Way more snow over the valley than even in the mountains, unless just doesn't go out far enough and the front hasn't made it that far east yet. 

[Perturbed Member]

Starting to get a bit more agreement on this midweek system. GEM doesn't think there will be as much precip extending form the NE side of the low but it has been on its own with that. 

Could get pretty fun if that thing tracks favorably.

[FroYoBro]

3 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Just noticed how snowy the 12z NAM is for Oregon.

 

Does it think the valley is actually the cascades? Lol. 

[Perturbed Member]

5 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Just noticed how snowy the 12z NAM is for Oregon.

 

This is probably more realistic.

[Cloud]

4 minutes ago, 1000'NorthBend said:

 

Thank you both, appreciate the breakdown. Geology-wise, I always loved how unique our glaciated coastal mountain range is. And growing up near the north end of the Kitsap Peninsula you learn plenty about it’s impact on rain/clouds in the surrounding areas, but it’s fascinating to learn about its effect on snow potential. My respect for the Olympics continues to grow!

Obviously it affects rain too! But because it rain here so much we rarely talk about the shadowed effect in places that are impacted by it. Our typical southern track storms impacts Sequim, which averages only 16" of rain annually due to the Olympics rain shadow.

[Perturbed Member]

WRF for Sunday. Not seeing how the surface temps can get that low with the light southerly breeze.

 

[Phil]

9 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Phil said it would retract. 

It already did/is. Upcoming GOA/Aleutian blocking is a consequence of that.

There’s another extension starting sometime in early February, right after this -PNA/cold period peaks. But it’s shorter lived/lower in amplitude vs the previous extension in Dec/early Jan, and the odds of cold/winter storms increase yet again mid-Feb.

[Phil]

51 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Time to take a trip to find some real winter!

Bro you’re all over the d**n place.

[Omegaraptor]

The winter of 2016-17 is when I became a weather weenie. I had no idea back then how lucky we got with that one. Probably not going to see anything like it again for a long time.

[Blizzard777]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Some chilly nights next week per the 12Z ECMWF...

 

Still haven’t put on my faucet covers.  This forecast warrants at least finding them and putting them on my workbench to be ready. 

[AlTahoe]

Just now, Omegaraptor said:

The winter of 2016-17 is when I became a weather weenie. I had no idea back then how lucky we got with that one. Probably not going to see anything like it again for a long time.

It was the wettest winter ever recorded in the Sierra by a considerable margin over 1982-1983. 

[AbbyJr]

Is phase 6 a favourable MJO phase for arctic air in the PNW during -ENSO/+QBO? Or is it only phase 7 or both?

[Omegaraptor]

6 minutes ago, Phil said:

It already did/is. Upcoming GOA/Aleutian blocking is a consequence of that.

There’s another extension starting sometime in early February, right after this -PNA/cold period peaks. But it’s shorter lived/lower in amplitude vs the previous extension in Dec/early Jan, and the odds of cold/winter storms increase yet again mid-Feb.

At first you said late Jan, then moved your prediction to first week of Feb, and now mid-Feb. The goalposts just keep getting pushed further and further back.

[MossMan]

Got to give props to Chris...He has not wavered one bit with his pessimistic outlook for months now and he is going to be correct it’s looking like. Shades of gray do not cut it with me. I’m no longer on board...again. 

[TacomaWaWx]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Got to give props to Chris...He has not wavered one bit with his pessimistic outlook for months now and he is going to be correct it’s looking like. Shades of gray do not cut it with me. I’m no longer on board...again. 

He can see the future on top of his high horse. 

[TacomaWaWx]

Up to 0.12” on the day...8.51” on the month and 44 degrees. The last week or so has felt a lot like January compared to the first half of the month which was rather Novemberish. 

[MossMan]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Well that sucks.

Massive letdown.