January 2021 weather observations for the PNW

[smerfylicious]

Just imagine if that slid SE a couple hundred miles...a man can dream...

[Meatyorologist]

It's also possible that a transient period of zonal flow could be necessary for a pattern reset. That happened as recently as January 2019.

[Gradient Keeper]

Safe to say the warm first 3 weeks of January will be coming an abrupt halt. Winter is FINALLY here!

[Meatyorologist]

R.I.P., Blob.

P stands for Pain, in this regard.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Having seizures, time for bed.

[Meatyorologist]

Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Having seizures, time for bed.

Get some rest. Hope you feel better in the morning.

[Meatyorologist]

A very de-amplified Pacific. Fairly negative -AO. This zonal pattern is advanced by a few days compared to the 00z. Maybe by the final frames we can see us break out of it.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Some March 2012 type potential in the long range. 

[Meatyorologist]

Height contours are pretty much sinusoidal in nature. Very flat Pacific with a calm SE Asia.

[mtep]

Happy to see some more hope for next week as it gets closer.

[Meatyorologist]

Extension.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Extension.

Phil said it would retract. 

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Phil said it would retract. 

I'd trust him over a long range GFS run. Could also be a transient feature before a retraction.

[Meatyorologist]

End of the run does get noticeably more blocky. Would rely on some retrogression, though.

[AlTahoe]

Yeah I don't think my house is going to get 140" of snow in the next 15 days. Thanks for playing GFS. Hopefully I can score 24-36" though as it looks like we go right back to ridging after this. 

[umadbro]

The 06z GFS is sliding in a new rug under our feet.

[FroYoBro]

41 degrees with some light rain moving off to the east. There is still a sliver of hope! 

[jakerepp]

1 hour ago, AlTahoe said:

Yeah I don't think my house is going to get 140" of snow in the next 15 days. Thanks for playing GFS. Hopefully I can score 24-36" though as it looks like we go right back to ridging after this. 

I'd put better odds of you getting 100'' than I would on Monterey getting a trace amount of snowfall. I lived in Salinas for 13 years and the lowest I can remember the snow level on Mt. Toro was probably 2500-3000'. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

5 hours ago, Kolk1604 said:

Much snowier run. Thru next Friday

I’m back to being in the pretty lavender zone!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Hopefully the 12z won't crap on us. Maybe just fart a bit.

[MossMan]

Currently 38 degrees.,

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Have a feeling hood canal area is going to get hit hard sometime over the next week.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Overcast, 37˚F, overnight low 36.

[MossMan]

8 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Hopefully the 12z won't crap on us. Maybe just fart a bit.

If it does it better smell like roses! 

[AlTahoe]

1 hour ago, jakerepp said:

I'd put better odds of you getting 100'' than I would on Monterey getting a trace amount of snowfall. I lived in Salinas for 13 years and the lowest I can remember the snow level on Mt. Toro was probably 2500-3000'. 

Snow levels actually get down to around 1000' in that area on Monday so the hills could get a dusting. I grew up in Morgan Hill and it snowed in town 3 times as a kid. We went sledding once on Redwood retreat road (Mt Madonna) in a really cold storm (Dec 1998?) and that was only at 1900' 

[MossMan]

9 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Have a feeling hood canal area is going to get hit hard sometime over the next week.

Also Arlington north! 

[jakerepp]

2 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

Snow levels actually get down to around 1000' in that area on Monday so the hills could get a dusting. I grew up in Morgan Hill and it snowed in town 3 times as a kid. We went sledding once on Redwood retreat road (Mt Madonna) in a really cold storm (Dec 1998?) and that was only at 1900' 

Morgan Hill!

I only ever remember driving through there on the way to SJC. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

Actually a hair more than the 06z through Wednesday night for Puget Sound...

Quite a bit more here! If it verifies, Sunday will be just a warning shot and the main action will come later.

[jakerepp]

1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

Actually a hair more than the 06z through Wednesday night for Puget Sound...

Most of this falls on Tuesday morning and Wednesday morning.

At this point, if we could squeeze 3'' out, I'd be pretty thrilled. 

[The Blob]

1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

For Oregon folks...

 

I could live with this

[Jesse]

Great 06z run. Looks like the 12z is in keeping with these better trends.

[SalemDuck]

The GEM’s track for Tuesday is perfection.

[Jesse]

Just some really good laset minute trends Andrew.

@SilverFallsAndrew

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

That gfs snow map shows about 10 inches here. I've lived here long enuff to know that is possible in this pattern.  We got smashed here in 2007 2008 winter with all the cold troughs and fronts over running after the trough. We had 48 inches that season followed by 54 in 08 09. Crazy couple years.

[Jesse]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

That gfs snow map shows about 10 inches here. I've lived here long enuff to know that is possible in this pattern.  We got smashed here in 2007 2008 winter with all the cold troughs and fronts over running after the trough. We had 48 inches that season followed by 54 in 08 09. Crazy couple years.

I can still remember your area getting smacked in just about every setup in 2007-08. Hood canal is a very interesting microclimate.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, Jesse said:

I can still remember your area getting smacked in just about every setup in 2007-08. Hood canal is a very interesting microclimate.

It also has a very sharp cut off line from the hood canal snow belt. My place is between gold mountain and the Olympics so we get good cold air damming. And are really protected from sw winds.  It's only about 8 miles to the base of the Olympics.  

[MossMan]

07/08 was no good until April around here...Hoping to avoid that but it’s not looking good. 

[snow_wizard]

37 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Great 06z run. Looks like the 12z is in keeping with these better trends.

I love how the stuff next week just keeps getting colder.  This is probably in reaction to the Western Pacific MJO wave emerging much more quickly than previously expected.  I wouldn't be surprised if everything just keeps trending better  next week and beyond.  I'm just thrilled to be getting some fairly cold weather now.  I've actually got a good string of chilly min temps going now.  Right now tomorrow night looks like legit cold.

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, MossMan said:

07/08 was no good until April around here...Hoping to avoid that but it’s not looking good. 

This run is actually pretty solidly cold.

[wxmet]

UKMET 12z is unimpressed.