January 2021 weather observations for the PNW

[Phil]

17 minutes ago, Cloud said:

It’s so freaking bizarre... Sacramento and San Jose are colder than Seattle and Portland. 

Elevation matters, more-so than latitude over most of the CONUS.

It snowed twice at 4000ft in the NC mountains while I was there 2nd week of Jan. Several inches on the ground w/ lows in the middle teens despite Canada torching at the time.

Back home up north in MD there wasn’t even a single snowflake during that timeframe, and lowest temp was 23°F. Really was something..went from snowpack to bare ground over ~ 5 miles driving out of the hills.

[GHweatherChris]

Satellite and radar shows the system to be moving in earlier than modeled to my untrained eye.

[umadbro]

GFS lighter on precip and snow totals than the NAM

[Timmy Supercell]

The snow kicks in tonight! I don't expect a full on storm not until the end of January. But maybe up to half foot over the course of a few days.

[Timmy Supercell]

KLMT got down to 10 this morning. 15 now.

One of my coldest lows this season.

[Jesse]

4 minutes ago, umadbro said:

GFS lighter on precip and snow totals than the NAM

Yeah but what do you think about all the losers posting right now 

[Phil]

19 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Actually not too unusual to see January tornado events in a Nina. 2011 had a big outbreak at New Years, 2008 had a big outbreak (which famously produced an EF3 tornado in Wisconsin) and 1999 had a massive outbreak with a high risk from the SPC. Of course all three of those years were also crazy tornadic in the spring as well.

Yeah that’s not the most reassuring set of potential analogs on that front.

[FroYoBro]

14 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Satellite and radar shows the system to be moving in earlier than modeled to my untrained eye.

Yeah, I was surprised to see radar echoes already showing up near Corvallis. Might just be virga for a while though. 

[BLI snowman]

13 minutes ago, Phil said:

Yeah that’s not the most reassuring set of potential analogs on that front.

A healthy Nina or post-Nina spring seems to be the most ideal setup for the worst tornado outbreaks. 1917, 1925, 1957, 1965, 1974, 1999, 2008, and 2011 to name a few. Today's tornado looks like a one-off, though, which is kinda unusual.

[High Desert Mat?]

Was 9 when I woke up this morning. All the way up to 12 now. Still a solid 4” on the ground from Friday’s storm. 

[Blizzard777]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

The PV actually hasn’t split yet. It’s just displaced and strung out.

Wave-1/displacement SSWings can be prolonged affairs.

Well now, that’s how I feel “displaced and strung out”.  Now I know why.

Some high clouds and I’m assuming another spectacular sunrise if your looking east.

30* with a dp of 25*

[Perturbed Member]

 

3km NAM precip rates look pretty strong from that band. Hopefully we can get the precip moving in a bit earlier than modeled. 

[GHweatherChris]

Seattle NWS is not on board for anyone but Snowmizer now.

[TheNewCulverJosh]

Will this webcam turn wet or white??  I am guessing they get a bunch of 37 degree rain.

https://www.visitredding.com/webcam

[MossMan]

I had a 12 second actual snow pelletish shower a bit ago! Woo Hoo! 

Currently 32 and cloudy. 

[Blizzard777]

13 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

Was 9 when I woke up this morning. All the way up to 12 now. Still a solid 4” on the ground from Friday’s storm. 

Brother headed over to his La Pine place.  4 inches as well 

[MossMan]

[FroYoBro]

Sitting at 34 degrees with a 32 dewpoint. Should be a pretty good setup to see my first snowflakes of the season today. Not expecting much stickage at this point though.

[TheNewCulverJosh]

This isn't most of us, but it's a good read.  Wish Pendleton knew how to be this descriptive.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
409 AM PST Tue Jan 26 2021

.DISCUSSION...A dangerous winter storm with historically significant
snowfall is expected to impact parts of Northern California,
including Interstate 5, late today into Wednesday morning, with
snow impacts continuing into Thursday night before tapering off.
Our message to those considering traveling this evening into early
Wednesday morning around Mount Shasta City area including on
Interstate 5 is simple--please don`t travel during this timeframe.
Conditions will be very dangerous with heavy snowfall, very low
visibility, and dangerously cold wind chills as low as 10 degrees.
Snow and wind impacts will reach into Southern Oregon as well,
though not expected to wield the type of impact that`s expected in
Siskiyou County. More to follow on that.

Satellite imagery this morning shows a well developed low pressure
system over the offshore waters moving towards the coast.
Precipitable water values are significant, about an inch along the
offshore front. As the associated front moves towards the coast, the
surface pressure gradient will tighten and southerly winds will
increase across the forecast area. These winds, in combination with
the approaching front and moisture, will fuel heavy precipitation
into favored upslope areas like the Coast Range, the Siskiyous,
and heaviest in the vicinity of Mount Shasta and Mount Shasta
City. The front will run into a cold air mass, so much of this
heavy precipitation will be in the form of snow. Moisture
transport values are in the top 10 percent of what one might
expect for this time of year, and this is especially notable given
the cold air mass. Usually the highest moisture systems have
higher snow levels.

All of this adds up to heavy snow later today into Wednesday, up to
2 inches per hour this evening through tonight, impacting portions
of Interstate 5 from south of Dunsmuir north through Weed to around
Grenada. Strong winds will accompany the snow at times, especially
in the vicinity of Weed. Most of Siskiyou County is in a Winter
Storm Warning, and we have Warnings out for the higher terrain of
Joesphine County as well. Heavy precipitation rates and the
aforementioned cold air mass could deliver significant snowfall to
valley floors in the Illinois Valley, portions of Douglas County
above 1500 ft, the Klamath River Valley (including Seiad Valley,
Happy Camp), and elevations above 1500 ft in Jackson County. We
have Winter Weather Advisories out for these areas. There`s no
doubt the south winds will dry out portions of Jackson County as
is typical, so some areas will see little to no snowfall. Still,
it only takes a few hours of snow to cause impacts, and some areas
won`t see as much drying with the south wind such as the higher hills
east of Talent and Ashland, and we`ll leave the Advisory out for
those reasons. East of the Cascades can be even trickier in these
situations, and most areas will see snowfall into Wednesday. We`ve
highlighted the most significant snowfall areas with a Winter
Weather Advisory including portions of Highways 140, 97, and 139.
The Cascades will see significant snow as well, particularly near
Crater Lake.

Winds, as mentioned, will be hefty and will compound any impacts
that snowfall delivers, especially in the Weed area along Interstate
5...and in areas east of the Cascades. A High Wind Warning has been
issued for portions of the coast--specifically for areas south of
Cape Blanco--with the latest data pinging Gold Beach and Port Orford
with gusts to 60+ mph. Additionally the high resolution HRRR model
is showing very gusty conditions in the Rogue Valley today,
especially in the area foothills. These impacts have been rolled
into the Winter Weather Advisory for that area.

The winter weather impacts continue Wednesday into Thursday night as
low pressure remains just west of the CA/OR coastline and spreads
deep southerly flow and snowfall into many of the same areas that
see heavy snowfall later today into tonight. Snowfall rates, and
thus impacts, won`t be as significant as today/tonight, but
continued heavy, wet snow in areas will add weight to
trees/powerlines, etc. Snow levels will also increase some during
this time as the air mass warms some, but not by much. Continued
gusty south winds are expected as well. A shortlived reprieve from
precipitation can be expected Friday. The longer-term discussion
follows. Keene

Long-term discussion from the previous AFD for Friday through
Sunday...The next system will be arriving from the west by Friday
evening and Friday night.

Like the previous storm systems, this one will likely be
arriving from the north with a cooler airmass. However, ensembles
suggest this weekend storm system isn`t as anomalously cold as the
storm on the 24th and the upcoming one on the 26th.  Snow levels
will likely be around 3500 feet.  We see little change in the snow
levels based on the distribution of the ensemble members this
weekend.

The other important feature of this storm is that it has some
important components of an atmospheric river.  About 66% percent of
the global ensemble forecast system(GEFS) members incorporate a
weak to moderate atmospheric river this weekend.  None of the GEFS
members show exceptionally high water vapor transport for this
weekend. Overall, impacts are not expected to be as high because the
potential for low level snow and flooding is low with the storm
system this weekend.

[paulb/eugene]

Will be rooting for Red Bluff and Redding to get record snowfall as there’s not much to talk about here.  
High cloud shield has arrived in timely manner to limit insolation but just not cold enough to begin with here in south valley.

was looking forward to interesting weather later on in February.  Ensemble means trending toward arctic airmass heading to MT/Dakotas instead of here. 
 

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS is juuuuuust a bit less crazy in the 300+ hour period compared to the 00Z run.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12z is very much in the winter cancel camp. 

[Deweydog]

There’s a sale at Penney’s!

[BLI snowman]

Hoping it can at least get kinda chilly in central Saskatchewan. 

[Timmy]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z GFS is juuuuuust a bit less crazy in the 300+ hour period compared to the 00Z run.

Looks arguably better than the 06z late in the run

[FroYoBro]

A light easterly breeze can now be felt here. Nice to see the dewpoint slowly drop at pdx over the last couple of hours. 

 

C'MON SNOWFLAKES!

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Timmy said:

Looks arguably better than the 06z late in the run

Yes... appears so.   But I usually only compare the 00Z and 12Z runs.     Its too confusing to keep track of the crazy 06Z and 18Z runs.

[Christensen87]

CFS finally jumped on board for the arctic outbreak after Feb 7th. 

[Phil]

Exact placement of TPV less important than the fact there’s legitimate arctic air entering the CONUS on the majority of the guidance for early February. 12z GFS still gets -41C 850mb temperatures into ND/MN, which would be among the coldest air masses ever recorded over the lower-48 for that timeframe.

[BLI snowman]

Nice miss to our east at the end. Looks chilly down to about Des Moines (Iowa).

[Perturbed Member]

Precip is a bit sped up now. WRF shows the precip starting around 1 PM. 1-4 PM for the main band. 

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

Exact placement of TPV less important than the fact there’s legitimate arctic air entering the CONUS on the majority of the guidance for early February. 12z GFS still gets -41C 850mb temperatures into ND/MN, which would be among the coldest air masses ever recorded over the lower-48 for that timeframe.

I doubt this is the coldest temps ever recorded in mid-February...

 

[Deweydog]

7 minutes ago, Phil said:

Exact placement of TPV less important than the fact there’s legitimate arctic air entering the CONUS on the majority of the guidance for early February. 12z GFS still gets -41C 850mb temperatures into ND/MN, which would be among the coldest air masses ever recorded over the lower-48 for that timeframe.

I think February 11th would be considered mid February.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I doubt this is the coldest temps ever recorded in mid-February...

 

He said airmass.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

He said airmass.

Seems like they always have record setting air masses lately.  

Side note... the record low in Fargo ND for February is -47 and -34 for March.    And -13 in April... lovely.  

[BLI snowman]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I doubt this is the coldest temps ever recorded in mid-February...

 

Minnesota has hit -50 as late as March 2 before....

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Seems like they always have record setting air masses lately.  

Side note... the record low in Fargo ND for February is -47 and -34 for March.

All time record low for Oregon was set on February 10th. -54

[TT-SEA]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

All time record low for Oregon was set on February 10th. -54

I heard there are some valleys in eastern Oregon that get pretty cold.   Peter Sinks UT too!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I heard there are some valleys in eastern Oregon that get pretty cold.   Peter Sinks UT too!

It was -4 in Burns, OR this morning!

Oklahoma s all time low of -30 was set February 10,2011. It can get cold in February too!

[Deweydog]

The timing of today’s system all the sudden gives it a bit of a 1-18-96 feels.