January 2021 weather observations for the PNW

[SilverFallsAndrew 13439]

GFS does get very close to full on arctic outbreak, but still having issues with that low that kind of meanders around. Arctic air definitely makes it into NW Washington though. Get that thing to dig and we are totally in business. Great runs today.

[Kayla 3521]

Wow. Keep in mind this an ensemble MEAN 12 days out. Truly remarkable agreement.

[Cloud 1140]

16 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

0.39” so far this morning...5.06” on the month. 

SEA is on track to have most rainfall first 15 days of the month by Friday. In fact, if the numbers are to come true, it’ll be by Wednesday night. Just insanely wet to start the month. 

[SilverFallsAndrew 13439]

Gets there by the end, and with that low hanging off the S. Oregon coast, low level cold has probably been pouring through the gorge for days at this point. 

[SilverFallsAndrew 13439]

3 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Wow. Keep in mind this an ensemble MEAN 12 days out. Truly remarkable agreement.

Looks like the timing has moved forward a bit, which is always great to see. 

[hawkstwelve 5609]

Not horrible...

[wxmet 793]

EPS looks textbook.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth 2778]

6 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Not horrible...

Toward the end the ridge goes a bit further west, like the GEFS, but the 200 hpa winds are still coming down NNW from Alaska, with a bit of onshore component to it.  Wouldn't think that would cause a major warm up.

[TT-SEA 1981]

12Z EPS at day 15... block is continuing to move westward at a good clip in the 10-15 day period.

 

 

 

[Deweydog 13395]

Just now, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Toward the end the ridge goes a bit further west, like the GEFS, but the 200 hpa winds are still coming down NNW from Alaska, with a bit of onshore component to it.  Wouldn't think that would cause a major warm up.

#killtheblob

#stopthesteal

[Deweydog 13395]

Pretty crazy sh*t from yesterday’s KING TIDE event at the coast.

https://komonews.com/news/local/watch-herd-of-elk-run-from-wave-during-high-tide-on-cannon-beach?fbclid=IwAR0ldXsFTcLQ3O6clna9EgWAxST3KO4zMcbCOJjtXpaLXCrOuxOTQKNJTHw

[Jesse 8021]

2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Pretty crazy sh*t from yesterday’s KING TIDE event at the coast.

https://komonews.com/news/local/watch-herd-of-elk-run-from-wave-during-high-tide-on-cannon-beach?fbclid=IwAR0ldXsFTcLQ3O6clna9EgWAxST3KO4zMcbCOJjtXpaLXCrOuxOTQKNJTHw

I thought that wasn't for a few more days.

[wxmet 793]

9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z EPS at day 15... block is continuing to move westward at a good clip in the 10-15 day period.

 

Good setup for some overrunning events.

[Timmy 1943]

1 minute ago, Jesse said:

I thought that wasn't for a few more days.

It was pretty bad yesterday for some reason, today through weds should be worse... not a good time to have beach front property ( I know, woe is me). I wish it were easy to share videos here but one wave took out a good chunk of a neighbors yard in rockaway.

[Jesse 8021]

2 minutes ago, Timmy said:

It was pretty bad yesterday for some reason, today through weds should be worse... not a good time to have beach front property ( I know, woe is me). I wish it were easy to share videos here but one wave took out a good chunk of a neighbors yard in rockaway.

I think sharing videos has gotten a lot easier since the upgrade. Sharing pics definitely has.

Glad we didn't miss it. Thinking about heading out there later this week.

[Skagit Weather 421]

5 minutes ago, Jesse said:

I thought that wasn't for a few more days.

I think even though the highest tides aren't until later this week, the fact that there were 5-7 meter waves forecast yesterday made up for the minimal difference in actual tidal level.

[Deweydog 13395]

2 minutes ago, Timmy said:

It was pretty bad yesterday for some reason, today through weds should be worse... not a good time to have beach front property ( I know, woe is me). I wish it were easy to share videos here but one wave took out a good chunk of a neighbors yard in rockaway.

Yeah, my wife had some video on the Facebook from yesterday in the Ocean Park area where some houses were surrounded by the surf.  Came up higher than the ones a couple years ago which were pretty much unprecedented.

[Timmy_Supercell 2065]

3 minutes ago, Jesse said:

I think sharing videos has gotten a lot easier since the upgrade. Sharing pics definitely has.

Lower resolution pics though. I didn't mind sharing imgur links on here which seems like the site rejects after the upgrade.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth 2778]

8 minutes ago, wxmet said:

Good setup for some overrunning events.

First time the EPS has shown more than just a trace of snow for the West side.

[Timmy 1943]

Here is a screenshot

[Deweydog 13395]

9 minutes ago, Jesse said:

I thought that wasn't for a few more days.

I think they max out today and tomorrow at Astoria but the SW’erly fetch and low offshore pressures should enhance things a little further.

Yesterday must have just been a perfect storm...

[Jesse 8021]

4 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Yeah, my wife had some video on the Facebook from yesterday in the Ocean Park area where some houses were surrounded by the surf.  Came up higher than the ones a couple years ago which were pretty much unprecedented.

Sea level rise?

[Timmy 1943]

Just now, Deweydog said:

I think they max out today and tomorrow at Astoria but the SW’erly fetch and low offshore pressures should enhance things a little further.

Yesterday must have just been a perfect storm...

I hope so, not looking forward to the bill. Our property is surrounded by riprap and we have been lucky enough to not have to replace any for the last couple years we have owned it.  That will likely change this week.

[SilverFallsAndrew 13439]

3 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

First time the EPS has shown more than just a trace of snow for the West side.

That is impressive. 

[Timmy 1943]

3 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Sea level rise?

The aerial photo from the 1960’s of our property looks essentially the same now.  Although we are on the north side of a jetty so sand does get deposited there.

[Timmy 1943]

impressive 

[TigerWoodsLibido 5265]

[TigerWoodsLibido 5265]

[Deweydog 13395]

1 minute ago, Jesse said:

Sea level rise?

Dunno.  Turns out I was thinking of 2018 instead of 2019 (these sh*t Januaries run together).  This video from the north peninsula always impressed me.

January is always the big tide month, but it seems like there has been a lot more encroachment during these cycles of late.  

[Timmy_Supercell 2065]

Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said:

2.2" here is probably an underestimation, but looks perfect elsewhere.

[Jesse 8021]

13 minutes ago, Timmy said:

I hope so, not looking forward to the bill. Our property is surrounded by riprap and we have been lucky enough to not have to replace any for the last couple years we have owned it.  That will likely change this week.

Mo money mo problems.

[SilverFallsAndrew 13439]

14 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Mo money mo problems.

There is definitely a tremendous amount of white privilege flexing that goes on in this forum. 

[Timmy 1943]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

There is definitely a tremendous amount of white privilege flexing that goes on in this forum. 

My dad was a janitor with 5 kids. Step off.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth 2778]

[Jesse 8021]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

There is definitely a tremendous amount of white privilege flexing that goes on in this forum. 

I wouldn’t call it that. And I’m sure Timmy would agree with B.I.G.

[Deweydog 13395]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

There is definitely a tremendous amount of white privilege flexing that goes on in this forum. 

You should set up some model riding outreach programs.

[SilverFallsAndrew 13439]

Just now, Timmy said:

My dad was a janitor with 5 kids. Step off.

That was not entirely directed at you, you are not the only one posting constantly about lake houses, cabins, jet skis, and trips to TRI CITIES. . 

Having money is not a bad thing. It just cracks me up sometimes how unrepresentative of the population as a whole this forum is. Nothing inherently wrong with that. 

[SilverFallsAndrew 13439]

2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

You should set up some model riding outreach programs.

Only if I can use STIMULUS funds. 

[SilverFallsAndrew 13439]

Now cue everyone's "I picked myself up by the bootstraps," rags to riches story. 

[Omegaraptor 2144]

Just got home a couple hours ago from my wisdom tooth removal. Glad to see the models are looking good. Think Cold and SNOW!

[SilverFallsAndrew 13439]

2 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Just got home a couple hours ago from my wisdom tooth removal. Glad to see the models are looking good. Think Cold and SNOW!

C'mon!

[Deweydog 13395]

2 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Just got home a couple hours ago from my wisdom tooth removal. Glad to see the models are looking good. Think Cold and SNOW!

I’m pretty sure I went to the dentist in December 2008...

[Cloud 1140]

CPC is onboard!

 

[Jginmartini 3376]

55 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Pretty crazy sh*t from yesterday’s KING TIDE event at the coast.

https://komonews.com/news/local/watch-herd-of-elk-run-from-wave-during-high-tide-on-cannon-beach?fbclid=IwAR0ldXsFTcLQ3O6clna9EgWAxST3KO4zMcbCOJjtXpaLXCrOuxOTQKNJTHw

As well as this in Rockaway!  See if this workshttps://www.facebook.com/132966913411693/posts/4954549921253344/

 

[SouthHillFrosty 946]

[Jesse 8021]

Just now, Cloud said:

CPC is onboard!

 

I don’t know, those warm anomaly contours in Alaska aren’t shaped in quite the right way to give us a TRUE arctic blast at day 14. Might have to settle for 1,600’ snow levels in that period but it’s good to see the improvement folks!!

[MossMan 9472]

7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Now cue everyone's "I picked myself up by the bootstraps," rags to riches story. 

Did somebody say Lake House???

Summer fun!! For the last 3 generations in my family! 

[Jginmartini 3376]

46 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

First time the EPS has shown more than just a trace of snow for the West side.

That there would TICK me off! 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth 2778]

2 minutes ago, Jesse said:

I don’t know, those warm anomaly contours in Alaska aren’t shaped in quite the right way to give us a TRUE arctic blast at day 14. Might have to settle for 1,600’ snow levels in that period but it’s good to see the improvement folks!!

Ensemble means feature a transition to a longwave pattern more typical during a  
La Nina winter with a building 500-hPa ridge across much of Alaska, a  
downstream trough at the higher latitudes of western North America, and a  
developing ridge over the Southeast. The ECMWF ensemble mean is the fastest  
with this transition but there is good agreement among ensemble means that this  
occurs around day 10. This predicted pattern change is likely to result in  
colder temperatures across the western and north-central CONUS during week-2,  
making a two-category change necessary from the 6-10 day period. This would be  
a major change from the previous 30 days when temperatures averaged as much as  
+10 degrees F above normal across the Northern Rockies and Northern Great  
Plains. In contrast to a colder pattern over the West, a gradual warming trend  
is expected for the Gulf Coast States as 500-hPa heights increase.  
Teleconnections upon a large positive 500-hPa anomaly at 45N-155W, common among  
all ensemble means, was used as guidance in the week-2 temperature outlook.    
However, probabilities are tempered due to the variable temperature pattern  
within the 7-day period. 

[einsteinjr 100]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Did somebody say Lake House???

Summer fun!! For the last 3 generations in my family! 

Kinda Andrew's point...

That Bernie Sanders guy was onto something.