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January 2021 weather observations for the PNW


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GFS does get very close to full on arctic outbreak, but still having issues with that low that kind of meanders around. Arctic air definitely makes it into NW Washington though. Get that thing to dig and we are totally in business. Great runs today.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0.5"                        2020-21: 27.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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No idea this was going to happen today! Mcminnville  

Some pics on the way up to my property.  The ones on the road are 1/4 mile down the road and the gate is the beginning of my 120 acre land.

Posted Images

16 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

0.39” so far this morning...5.06” on the month. 

SEA is on track to have most rainfall first 15 days of the month by Friday. In fact, if the numbers are to come true, it’ll be by Wednesday night. Just insanely wet to start the month. 

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Gets there by the end, and with that low hanging off the S. Oregon coast, low level cold has probably been pouring through the gorge for days at this point. 

prateptype_cat.na.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0.5"                        2020-21: 27.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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3 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Wow. Keep in mind this an ensemble MEAN 12 days out. Truly remarkable agreement.

330814697_ScreenShot2021-01-11at12_36_49PM.thumb.png.8b5a8dfe2773eea16407140c5053e0ba.png

Looks like the timing has moved forward a bit, which is always great to see. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0.5"                        2020-21: 27.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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12Z EPS at day 15... block is continuing to move westward at a good clip in the 10-15 day period.

 

 

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-1662400.png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-1610366400-1610366400-1611662400-20.gif

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Toward the end the ridge goes a bit further west, like the GEFS, but the 200 hpa winds are still coming down NNW from Alaska, with a bit of onshore component to it.  Wouldn't think that would cause a major warm up.

#killtheblob

#stopthesteal

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z EPS at day 15... block is continuing to move westward at a good clip in the 10-15 day period.

 

Good setup for some overrunning events.

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1 minute ago, Jesse said:

I thought that wasn't for a few more days.

It was pretty bad yesterday for some reason, today through weds should be worse... not a good time to have beach front property ( I know, woe is me). I wish it were easy to share videos here but one wave took out a good chunk of a neighbors yard in rockaway.

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2 minutes ago, Timmy said:

It was pretty bad yesterday for some reason, today through weds should be worse... not a good time to have beach front property ( I know, woe is me). I wish it were easy to share videos here but one wave took out a good chunk of a neighbors yard in rockaway.

I think sharing videos has gotten a lot easier since the upgrade. Sharing pics definitely has.

Glad we didn't miss it. Thinking about heading out there later this week.

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5 minutes ago, Jesse said:

I thought that wasn't for a few more days.

I think even though the highest tides aren't until later this week, the fact that there were 5-7 meter waves forecast yesterday made up for the minimal difference in actual tidal level.

Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018)   Wettest Day: 2.43 (2012)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 6.9"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" 

2020-21: 0"

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2 minutes ago, Timmy said:

It was pretty bad yesterday for some reason, today through weds should be worse... not a good time to have beach front property ( I know, woe is me). I wish it were easy to share videos here but one wave took out a good chunk of a neighbors yard in rockaway.

Yeah, my wife had some video on the Facebook from yesterday in the Ocean Park area where some houses were surrounded by the surf.  Came up higher than the ones a couple years ago which were pretty much unprecedented.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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3 minutes ago, Jesse said:

I think sharing videos has gotten a lot easier since the upgrade. Sharing pics definitely has.

Lower resolution pics though. I didn't mind sharing imgur links on here which seems like the site rejects after the upgrade.

Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
 
2020-2021 - 07.50"
Nov '20 - 00.20" (5%)
Dec '20 - 04.40" (44%)
Jan '21 - 02.90"
 
2021 Thunderstorms
--/--,
 
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 10 (2020), 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011)
1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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9 minutes ago, Jesse said:

I thought that wasn't for a few more days.

I think they max out today and tomorrow at Astoria but the SW’erly fetch and low offshore pressures should enhance things a little further.

Yesterday must have just been a perfect storm...

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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4 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Yeah, my wife had some video on the Facebook from yesterday in the Ocean Park area where some houses were surrounded by the surf.  Came up higher than the ones a couple years ago which were pretty much unprecedented.

Sea level rise?

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Just now, Deweydog said:

I think they max out today and tomorrow at Astoria but the SW’erly fetch and low offshore pressures should enhance things a little further.

Yesterday must have just been a perfect storm...

I hope so, not looking forward to the bill. Our property is surrounded by riprap and we have been lucky enough to not have to replace any for the last couple years we have owned it.  That will likely change this week.

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3 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

First time the EPS has shown more than just a trace of snow for the West side.

image.thumb.png.4a73f56d2f92ae0a713a2ea458c351d5.png

That is impressive. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0.5"                        2020-21: 27.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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3 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Sea level rise?

The aerial photo from the 1960’s of our property looks essentially the same now.  Although we are on the north side of a jetty so sand does get deposited there.

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1611748800-VjcWn7sNDLw.png

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 30 (Most recent: Jan 24, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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1611705600-1h09VzQEBmY.png

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 30 (Most recent: Jan 24, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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1 minute ago, Jesse said:

Sea level rise?

Dunno.  Turns out I was thinking of 2018 instead of 2019 (these sh*t Januaries run together).  This video from the north peninsula always impressed me.

January is always the big tide month, but it seems like there has been a lot more encroachment during these cycles of late.  

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said:

1611748800-VjcWn7sNDLw.png

2.2" here is probably an underestimation, but looks perfect elsewhere.

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Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
 
2020-2021 - 07.50"
Nov '20 - 00.20" (5%)
Dec '20 - 04.40" (44%)
Jan '21 - 02.90"
 
2021 Thunderstorms
--/--,
 
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 10 (2020), 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011)
1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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13 minutes ago, Timmy said:

I hope so, not looking forward to the bill. Our property is surrounded by riprap and we have been lucky enough to not have to replace any for the last couple years we have owned it.  That will likely change this week.

Mo money mo problems.

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14 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Mo money mo problems.

There is definitely a tremendous amount of white privilege flexing that goes on in this forum. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0.5"                        2020-21: 27.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

There is definitely a tremendous amount of white privilege flexing that goes on in this forum. 

My dad was a janitor with 5 kids. Step off.

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

There is definitely a tremendous amount of white privilege flexing that goes on in this forum. 

I wouldn’t call it that. And I’m sure Timmy would agree with B.I.G.

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

There is definitely a tremendous amount of white privilege flexing that goes on in this forum. 

You should set up some model riding outreach programs.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Just now, Timmy said:

My dad was a janitor with 5 kids. Step off.

That was not entirely directed at you, you are not the only one posting constantly about lake houses, cabins, jet skis, and trips to TRI CITIES. ;)

Having money is not a bad thing. It just cracks me up sometimes how unrepresentative of the population as a whole this forum is. Nothing inherently wrong with that. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0.5"                        2020-21: 27.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

You should set up some model riding outreach programs.

Only if I can use STIMULUS funds. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0.5"                        2020-21: 27.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Now cue everyone's "I picked myself up by the bootstraps," rags to riches story. 🤣

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0.5"                        2020-21: 27.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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2 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Just got home a couple hours ago from my wisdom tooth removal. Glad to see the models are looking good. Think Cold and SNOW!

C'mon! ;)

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0.5"                        2020-21: 27.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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2 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Just got home a couple hours ago from my wisdom tooth removal. Glad to see the models are looking good. Think Cold and SNOW!

I’m pretty sure I went to the dentist in December 2008...

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Just now, Cloud said:

CPC is onboard!😍

 

I don’t know, those warm anomaly contours in Alaska aren’t shaped in quite the right way to give us a TRUE arctic blast at day 14. Might have to settle for 1,600’ snow levels in that period but it’s good to see the improvement folks!!

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7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Now cue everyone's "I picked myself up by the bootstraps," rags to riches story. 🤣

Did somebody say Lake House???

Summer fun!! For the last 3 generations in my family! 

F3933C5E-C23A-4025-BA5A-DBC5F73D3017.jpeg

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2 minutes ago, Jesse said:

I don’t know, those warm anomaly contours in Alaska aren’t shaped in quite the right way to give us a TRUE arctic blast at day 14. Might have to settle for 1,600’ snow levels in that period but it’s good to see the improvement folks!!

Ensemble means feature a transition to a longwave pattern more typical during a  
La Nina winter with a building 500-hPa ridge across much of Alaska, a  
downstream trough at the higher latitudes of western North America, and a  
developing ridge over the Southeast. The ECMWF ensemble mean is the fastest  
with this transition but there is good agreement among ensemble means that this  
occurs around day 10. This predicted pattern change is likely to result in  
colder temperatures across the western and north-central CONUS during week-2,  
making a two-category change necessary from the 6-10 day period. This would be  
a major change from the previous 30 days when temperatures averaged as much as  
+10 degrees F above normal across the Northern Rockies and Northern Great  
Plains. In contrast to a colder pattern over the West, a gradual warming trend  
is expected for the Gulf Coast States as 500-hPa heights increase.  
Teleconnections upon a large positive 500-hPa anomaly at 45N-155W, common among  
all ensemble means, was used as guidance in the week-2 temperature outlook.    
However, probabilities are tempered due to the variable temperature pattern  
within the 7-day period. 
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