Season's First Potential Wintry Storm and Arctic Outbreak

[WildWisconsinWeather]

I could live with the last few OP GFS run. Looks like about 2" here on this run.

 

ULL is a bit west for sure on this run. Looking at the track itself, it resembles a Clipper on steroids! lol

 

It reminds me a lot of December 19, 2008 so far, just kind of a nice little overrunning/bowling ball west to east swath of warning snows in spots at least.

[Money]

Check out this cold air....holy crap

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014110700/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_22.png

[Tom]

^{_{Hey Tom, I have a question.  Why is the snow so far to the north of the main energy?  The low placement seems good for Nebraska to get good snow but the snow is all up in South Dakota.  I'm a bit confused.}}

The snow develops near the baraclinic zone where the most frontogenesis and lift is occuring.  You can have a SLP dig deep into the Pan Handle like it is doing here and then wrap up into a tight storm system as it heads NNE when the storm begins to mature.  What I see happening on the 18z GFS Par compared to the 00z GFS are the errors correcting from its 18z run where it had almost 2 pieces of energy: 1st in N MO, 2nd near Amarillo, TZ @ 00z Tuesday.  Now, tonight's 00z GFS Par is showing 1 main SLP near Amarillo, TX and therefore that piece of energy is the main component which tells the model wants to take a southern route.

 

The world of weather is def not easy to understand...this is just what I notice after ready wx maps over the years and what makes sense and what doesn't.

[Grizzcoat]

It doesn't look great for us down in the Iowa city/Cedar Rapids area. But I'm very used to being just a bit too far south. It's amazing how consistently storms track just a bit north of here. Gfs gives me an inch or two, which for November is actually not bad

Feel the same here in the DSM area. Domink -- RIP.

I will be surprised if EURO (hoping) moves South. The energy for this system-- where is it located now??

[Tom]

Give me a couple inches so its enough to cover the grass and keep things white around here when the arctic air hits and I'll be happy.  Heck, that would make November above normal for snowfall!  Ha!

[Tom]

Feel the same here in the DSM area. Domink -- RIP.

I will be surprised if EURO (hoping) moves South. The energy for this system-- where is it located now??

N Pacific, just south of the Aleutian islands....

[Money]

GGEM out to HR 48 so far. Ukie should be out in 10 mins or so.

[Money]

http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/492_100.gif

[WildWisconsinWeather]

GGEM out to HR 48 so far. Ukie should be out in 10 mins or so.

 

I think the UKIE will still be north, I'm kind of worried, though the 12z run was weird, the low weakened considerably as it got into Wisconsin despite being the furthest NW of the models, I think it must've run into the blocking and got squashed a bit as a result.  Hoping for a tick south on the GEM and/or Euro.

[Money]

http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/133_100.gif

[Money]

GGEM is 3 MB stronger and a tad north so far through 84 compared to 12z. 

[james1976]

If a southward trend is possible then man, I will be sitting very good. Already looking like a great birthday gift from Mother Nature!

[Tom]

00z GFS has high temps in the upper 10's for N NE/IA on Saturday!  Redic

[bud2380]

Ggem thru 84 hours. Looks similar to 12z run to me.

[Money]

http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/134_100.gif

 

S. WI bullseye again 

[Money]

and

 

http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/135_100.gif

[Money]

UKMET

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_072_0000.gif

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_096_0000.gif

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.gif

[bud2380]

Wow, gem would have to be near record snowfall for early November.

[Money]

Just to show you how much snow falls on the GGEM. 33 MM=1.3 QPF with more that fell before and after that frame. 

[WildWisconsinWeather]

UKMET

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_072_0000.gif

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_096_0000.gif

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.gif

 

Appears to be slower than a lot of other guidance, maybe by 6 hours.

[Geos]

Looks like far N IL gets a little love from the GGEM as the low passes to the east.

 

 

[james1976]

Seems to me that the models are in fairly good agreement. Quite amazing with it being 3 1/2 to 4 days out.

[Scott26]

Looks like far N IL gets a little love from the GGEM as the low passes to the east.

 

cmc_snow_acc_east_25.png

Wow, what a hit for Wisconsin. Truthfully I would be happy with any accumulating snow. It's still so early in the season it's rare to have any accumulation whatsoever yet.

[Money]

Widespread 6-10+ with locally higher amounts for S. MN/N. IA and S. WI on the GFS/Parallel GFS/GGEM

[clintbeed1993]

Models continue to shaft Nebraska and I continue to cry a little inside.

[Money]

Seems to me that the models are in fairly good agreement. Quite amazing with it being 3 1/2 to 4 days out.

 

Starts snowing in IA/MN/WI in about 72 hours according to the GGEM.

[The Snowman]

The N IL area is in that spot where it's enough snow to coat the ground and shovel, but a nuisance accumulation, if you know what I mean. It's snow that you have to shovel and clear off, but not worth clearing off because it's not a big storm.

Therefore, I'll pull the storm-isn't-fully-sampled-yet card and hope for a trend in some direction

[Money]

The N IL area is in that spot where it's enough snow to coat the ground and shovel, but a nuisance accumulation, if you know what I mean. It's snow that you have to shovel and clear off, but not worth clearing off because it's not a big storm.

Therefore, I'll pull the storm-isn't-fully-sampled-yet card and hope for a trend in some direction

 

Didn't you guys get enough last year? 

[Geos]

Models continue to shaft Nebraska and I continue to cry a little inside.

 

Hope that the Arctic front comes down quicker than forecast. That will force the storm to cut a further south in the Plains then. Maybe then you could get in on some lighter snows at least.

[WildWisconsinWeather]

The N IL area is in that spot where it's enough snow to coat the ground and shovel, but a nuisance accumulation, if you know what I mean. It's snow that you have to shovel and clear off, but not worth clearing off because it's not a big storm.

Therefore, I'll pull the storm-isn't-fully-sampled-yet card and hope for a trend in some direction

 

I can't count how many times it happened here last winter (nuisance pixie dust type of snow), esp later in the winter.  When combined with three to four of every five days being bitter cold and blustery, it just wore on you since there were few big storms.

[Money]

I can't count how many times it happened here last winter (nuisance pixie dust type of snow), esp later in the winter.  When combined with three to four of every five days being bitter cold and blustery, it just wore on you since there were few big storms.

 

Don't think we had a storm over 6 inches last year, but we ended up with about 50-60 in S. WI on the season. It seemed like in Dec. there was a 2-3 week stretch where we had clipper after clipper bringing like 1-2 inches every other day. 

[WildWisconsinWeather]

Don't think we had a storm over 6 inches last year, but we ended up with about 50-60 in S. WI on the season. It seemed like in Dec. there was a 2-3 week stretch where we had clipper after clipper bringing like 1-2 inches every other day. 

 

December around here actually had the most exciting storms, it seemed like January and February we got nickle and dimed with the northern edge of storms bringing an inch or two of very light powdery snow.

[Tom]

Don't think we had a storm over 6 inches last year, but we ended up with about 50-60 in S. WI on the season. It seemed like in Dec. there was a 2-3 week stretch where we had clipper after clipper bringing like 1-2 inches every other day. 

This year is going to be much different, phased and amplified systems will be more common....also, wouldn't be surprised to see a Clipper train when you see the PV park itself near Hudson Bay throughout the season.

[Geos]

I can't count how many times it happened here last winter (nuisance pixie dust type of snow), esp later in the winter.  When combined with three to four of every five days being bitter cold and blustery, it just wore on you since there were few big storms.

 

What did you get for the New Years storm that last 2.5 days?

[WildWisconsinWeather]

What did you get for the New Years storm that last 2.5 days?

 

MKE got over 6", don't remember what I got, but I think there was a bit of a gradient between the airport and the northern/western burbs (usually the reverse gradient of what that storm yielded).

[Money]

GGEM shows snow for S. WI/N. IA/S.MN from HR 72 until HR 100 or so. 24-30 hours of straight snow. 

[Geos]

To show the baroclinic zone.

 

 

 

Interesting... GGEM showing a little LES surprise at the end!

 

 

[Grizzcoat]

Last winter by Dec 20th here in C.IA the local media was complaining on how long the winter was. What?? Where I grew up along the Northshore along Superior in MN (where Duluth had 127 consecutive days last winter with at least 14" of snow on the ground) -- people would laugh at that the fact the most amount on the ground here in DSM last winter was 6"---

It's going to be a looooooooooong winter. Please.

[Money]

MKE AFD doesn't even really mention this storm at all:

 

THE GFS HAS A STRONGER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS WISCONSIN
TUESDAY...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF IS WEAKER AS AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
DROPS TOWARDS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES FROM CANADA.

THE 12Z GFS HAS MODERATE AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION FAR SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH MUCH LIGHTER AMOUNTS ON THE 00Z
ECMWF. TEMPERATURES/THICKNESS VALUES ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE BASE OF A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES...WITH A SHORTWAVE MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY THAT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A COLD NORTH
FLOW ACROSS WISCONSIN. THIS WILL RESULT IN COLD TEMPERATURES.

 

Then the hazardous weather outlook says this: 

 

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

[WildWisconsinWeather]

It's quiet in here, expected more discussion on the early returns of the Euro.