December 2014 Observations for the Pacific Northwest

[snow_wizard]

That is impossible that virtually means the whole western hemisphere is colder than normal! where did el nino go?

Agreed it's impossible, but I think the Nino is getting way too much attention given how weak it is. Such overblown warmth this month with only a weak Nino suggests to me payback is coming.

[Phil]

Ummmm....What about this CFSv2?

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaT2m.20141211.201501.gif

That's a grouping of 25-30 of its past runs/ensembles. In truth, the model is flipping like a fish out of water from day to day.

[snow_wizard]

The MJO phase diagrams suggest things will be favorable for a NW cold wave somewhere in the very late Dec to early Jan time frame.  I know Phil is less than keen on that tool, but I'm going to buy it based on past experience.

[Phil]

The MJO phase diagrams suggest things will be favorable for a NW cold wave somewhere in the very late Dec to early Jan time frame. I know Phil is less than keen on that tool, but I'm going to buy it based on past experience.

You should read TheNewBigMack's update in the MJO thread. He explains these things much better than I can.

[HighlandExperience]

Agreed it's impossible, but I think the Nino is getting way too much attention given how weak it is. Such overblown warmth this month with only a weak Nino suggests to me payback is coming.

 

I hope/wishcast you are right.

 

The CFS-V2..might be just a tad overdone on January..

 

A Younger Dryas encore? Lol

 

Perhaps payback will come late December/Early January.

[snow_wizard]

It will be interesting to see how things pan out for Seattle with the wind potential tonight.  The operational GFS runs have pretty much shown the low will be greatly weakened by the time it's in position for major wind in Seattle.  The WRF is close to being impressive with the potential though.  Could be anywhere from a bust to close to what the NWS is forecasting.

[Phil]

I hope/wishcast you are right.

 

 

Perhaps payback will come late December/Early January.

I'm thinking early/mid January? December isn't gonna do much unless you live in the east, imo

[snow_wizard]

I hope/wishcast you are right.

 

 

Perhaps payback will come late December/Early January.

 

Past history is full of such examples.  I call the chances for something good in January way above average this winter.

[snow_wizard]

I'm thinking early/mid January? December isn't gonna do much unless you live in the east, imo

 

Could very well be.  I just can't totally rule out late Dec though.

[westiztehbest]

That CFS run with the northern hemisphere engulfed in blue is a beautiful sight.  

[seattleweatherguy]

Lol. It's called a feedback loop, and it's almost certainly an error. It has happened in the geologic past, though.

ya never know what mother nature has in store. perhaps that would be a precursor to an ice age?

[seattleweatherguy]

Agreed it's impossible, but I think the Nino is getting way too much attention given how weak it is. Such overblown warmth this month with only a weak Nino suggests to me payback is coming.

I really hope so. So far this year got a trace of snow on the grass none on cement. For some reason my location just has a hard time getttng snow to stick. When most people get an inch or two I get a trace or a little more.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

That's a grouping of 25-30 of its past runs/ensembles. In truth, the model is flipping like a fish out of water from day to day.

 

Okay that makes some sense.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Portland NWS backing off on the wind a bit, saying gusts to 50mph are the most likely scenario most places. Which basically puts it on par with October's storm. I wasn't terribly impressed with that one. 

[seattleweatherguy]

It will be interesting to see how things pan out for Seattle with the wind potential tonight.  The operational GFS runs have pretty much shown the low will be greatly weakened by the time it's in position for major wind in Seattle.  The WRF is close to being impressive with the potential though.  Could be anywhere from a bust to close to what the NWS is forecasting.

One day someone has to teach me fast how to read these things like WRF somehow I see still 40-45 gusts im probably wrong and too conservative.

[Snow]

Portland NWS backing off on the wind a bit, saying gusts to 50mph are the most likely scenario most places. Which basically puts it on par with October's storm. I wasn't terribly impressed with that one. 

 

I'm not sure why they backed off when the new 12z GFS and EURO runs have come in even stronger than the old 00z runs.

[ShawniganLake]

Past history is full of such examples.  I call the chances for something good in January way above average this winter.

I think the chances for January have been good for some time, regardless of the warmth the past couple of days. 

 

When it comes to talking about payback, how do we know that the warmth this week isn't payback for the cold last week?

Or the warmth this summer wasn't payback for the cold summers of a few years ago.  It seems like an impossible thing to put a time stamp on. 

[antipex]

Portland NWS backing off on the wind a bit, saying gusts to 50mph are the most likely scenario most places. Which basically puts it on par with October's storm. I wasn't terribly impressed with that one. 

 

I live a few floors up in a building completely exposed to the south, and while not a major one, October's storm was by far the strongest I've experienced since I moved into this place three years ago. It was exciting, yet at times the gusts were a bit nerve-wracking and were causing the building to creak and move. The October storm was also the first to cause a power outage here after a couple hours of intensely flickering lights.

[seattleweatherguy]

I think over time it evens out. However sometimes it may take 30 years

[ShawniganLake]

I'm not sure why they backed off when the new 12z GFS and EURO runs have come in even stronger than the old 00z runs.

Realism.  Winds aren't going to gust to 75mph in Portland as the wrf and yourself have suggested.

[antipex]

I'm not sure why they backed off when the new 12z GFS and EURO runs have come in even stronger than the old 00z runs.

 

Somehow I think they're still skittish after the Winter Storm Warning bust last month. At this point the best course of action would be to continue with what they've got... we'll just have to wait and see what happens this afternoon.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Mark Nelsen just posted his thoughts. He is a little more bullish now on the wind potential. He mentions that if you look at our major wind events they are generally in the afternoon and produce very warm temperatures. He expects valley temps to bounce into the low-mid 60s this afternoon. That will make 4 straight 60s at SLE. I wonder the last time if ever that's happened in December.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Strongest winds at 10am in Oregon were in Southern Oregon with Sexton Summit gusting to 45mph. In Central Oregon a few places were gusting to 40.

[ShawniganLake]

One day someone has to teach me fast how to read these things like WRF somehow I see still 40-45 gusts im probably wrong and too conservative.

Looks like you are reading it okay to me.  The conservative approach is probably to way to go. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

There have not been a ton of record highs in NW Oregon over the last couple of days even though it has been very warm.

[Snow]

Realism.  Winds aren't going to gust to 75mph in Portland as the wrf and yourself have suggested.

 

It might not but gust up to 50 mph is not a good forecast. Gust to 65 mph or even 60 mph would have been a better forecast.

[BLI snowman]

Portland NWS backing off on the wind a bit, saying gusts to 50mph are the most likely scenario most places. Which basically puts it on par with October's storm. I wasn't terribly impressed with that one. 

 

Odd that the Seattle NWS has gone overboard with their forecasts while the Portland NWS has been on the money. Usually it's the opposite.

[Snow]

Somehow I think they're still skittish after the Winter Storm Warning bust last month. At this point the best course of action would be to continue with what they've got... we'll just have to wait and see what happens this afternoon.

 

Yeah your right, they don't want to have eggs on their faces again and are being conservative as a result.

[ShawniganLake]

It might not but gust up to 50 mph is not a good forecast. Gust to 65 mph or even 60 mph would have been a better forecast.

A sporadic 60, maybe a 65, would seem like a reasonable expectation.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Odd that the Seattle NWS has gone overboard with their forecasts while the Portland NWS has been on the money. Usually it's the opposite.

Can't win'em all... 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Eugene is gusting to 28mph now and their temp has shot up to 59.

 

Redmond and Pendleton now gusting over 50mph.

[Prairiedog]

GFS has been very consistent with the wind analysis and the other models pretty much caught up.  Only a few (very few) people have said winds would be 70+ for the Portland area.  There hasn't been any "substantial" downgrade at all.  Perhaps 5-10mph at best, but predicting winds that close is like predicting exact snowfall.  It's going to get windy here.  There are going to be power outages here.  That makes it significant and substantial for some people.  Is it a top tier windstorm, no.  Was the potential there, yes.  But none of the models really predicted anything more than what its showing now.  Seems that there are extremists on both ends of this. 

[Snow]

Eugene winds S 23 G33 as of 11:54 am.

 

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?sid=KEUG

[Snow]

Wow, sunny skies right now in PDX. This should warm the atmosphere even more and help the stronger winds up above mix easier to the ground. Everything is coming together for a great Sou'Wester. I am expecting a peak wind gust of 75 mph somewhere in the Willamette Valley.

[Snow]

Lebanon, OR just east of Corvallis is gusting now to 53 mph.

 

http://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KORLEBAN11

[seattleweatherguy]

..HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON
TO 4 AM PST FRIDAY...

* SOME AFFECTED LOCATIONS INCLUDE...SEATTLE...BELLEVUE...
TACOMA... OLYMPIA...CENTRALIA...EVERETT...WHIDBEY ISLAND...
PORT TOWNSEND...AND BELLINGHAM.

* TIMING...HIGH WINDS ARE LIKELY TO FIRST DEVELOP ACROSS GRAYS
HARBOR...THURSTON...PIERCE...AND LEWIS COUNTIES AFTER 4 PM
THIS AFTERNOON. THE REMAINING LOWLANDS INCLUDING PUGET SOUND
AND THE NORTH INTERIOR WILL HAVE HIGH WIND GUSTS DEVELOPING
AFTER 6 PM THIS EVENING.

* WIND...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR
AND PUGET SOUND WILL RAPIDLY RISE TO 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
60 MPH THIS EVENING...THEN GRADUALLY EASE LATER IN THE EVENING.
AREAS FROM ADMIRALTY INLET NORTHWARD WILL HAVE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WIND OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 65 MPH...SLOWLY
EASING AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR ALONG
SHORLINES AND LOCATIONS EXPOSED TO SOUTHERLY WIND. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...WINDS THIS STRONG WILL TOPPLE LARGE TREES.
WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR GIVEN THE
SATURATED SOILS FROM RECENT HEAVY RAIN. STRONG WINDS COULD
IMPACT THE EVENING COMMUTE...ESPECIALLY FROM SEATTLE
NORTHWARD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS THAT A HAZARDOUS WIND EVENT IS IMMINENT
OR OCCURRING.

IF YOU PLAN TO USE AN ALTERNATE SOURCE OF HEAT OR ELECTRICITY
DURING POWER OUTAGES...OBSERVE ALL SAFETY PRECAUTIONS TO AVOID
CARBON MONOXIDE POISONING...ELECTROCUTION...OR A FIRE. PORTABLE
GENERATORS SHOULD ONLY BE USED OUTDOORS IN A DRY AND WELL
VENTILATED AREA. DO NOT USE A BARBECUE GRILL TO HEAT YOUR HOME AS
IT CAN LEAD TO CARBON MONOXIDE POISONING AND/OR A FIRE.

[antipex]

Up to 60 here finally, sunny as could be!

[MossMan]

Heavy rain in Everett.

Up here in Stanwood as well! Very dark, and heavy rain.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

 Even a gust of 50 mph with all this wet ground will cause problems.

[antipex]

Wind is at S 30 G 41 in Salem on the hour.