December 2014 Observations for the Pacific Northwest

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I'm calling it now...The reload isn't going to happen.

[Deweydog]

Looks like the south Cascades are going to expand to include Portland and bring them a couple feet of snow. Central Cascades might reach out to about Renton and Federal Way

That SHOULD help with snow totals.

 

Good stuff.

[Front Ranger]

Definitely looking moister overall, but temps are extremely borderline for most of Sunday night. It's not easy to get below 35 in the lowlands with onshore flow and relatively light precip rates.

 

Borderline setup in a borderline climate. Whodathunkit. If some sort of CZ can setup, that's usually the best bet.

[Deweydog]

I'm calling it now...The reload isn't going to happen.

Battle ground set up looks possible but history tells us another full latitude retrogression is and wasn't realistically in the cards.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Battle ground set up looks possible but history tells us another full latitude retrogression is and wasn't realistically in the cards.

Yep....

[TT-SEA]

Twas a gorgeous day here thanks to a stationary hole in the cloud cover... sunny here from start to finish.

 

http://s18.postimg.org/ms8qtopx5/VIS1_SEA.gif

[Bryant]

I'm calling it now...The reload isn't going to happen.

Based off of your gut feeling? All the ingredients are there. The models can't figure out 48-72 hours from now, let alone the timeframe for the reload.

[Gradient Keeper]

I just got home.... both 18z Op/Parallel weren't really that close to a reload.... We have to remember of course that's 7-10 days away.... I also see the Op wasn't nearly as impressive with the initial "blast" especially in duration. Parallel is quite a bit colder.. We'll see what 00z shows, but when the shortwave has already developed nearing the southeast Alaska Coast models are probably locked in on the first trough and I'd really hate to see 00z water it down too.... I wasn't impressed with 12z GFS Ensembles 500mb heights either. HR 192 - 384 not a lot of cold members to be honest.

[luvssnow_spokane]

I just got home.... both 18z Op/Parallel weren't really that close to a reload.... We have to remember of course that's 7-10 days away.... I also see the Op wasn't nearly as impressive with the initial "blast" especially in duration. Parallel is quite a bit colder.. We'll see what 00z show

s, but when the shortwave has already developed nearing the southeast Alaska Coast models are probably locked in on the first trough and I'd really hate to see 00z water it down too....

I wasn't impressed with 12z GFS Ensembles 500mb heights either. HR 192 - 384 not a lot of cold members to be honest.

Bummer but at least honest and realistic. Thanks!

[Phil]

I'm calling it now...The reload isn't going to happen.

Zzzzzzz

[richard mann]

.. "derision"

 

— Well that's, clear enough. (.. No delineation necessary, here.)

[ShawniganLake]

Zzzzzzz

I'm thinking you still think it is coming?

[Parksvillewx]

Environment Canada just issued a weather statement for my area..

 

Maybe I'll pick up some strait effect snow.

 

 

Issued at 2014-12-26 23:52 UTC by Environment Canada:
Special weather statement issued for:
   East Vancouver Island, B.C. (081300)

Current details:
Cold Arctic air arriving Sunday.

A strong ridge of high pressure from Yukon will advance southward towards the British Columbia coast on Sunday morning.

The ridge will spread cold Arctic air along coastal regions bringing temperatures down to 5 to 10 degrees below seasonal normal values by Monday. The ridge will also create strong pressure gradients along the coast and generate intense northeasterly Arctic outflow winds through mainland valleys and inlets beginning Sunday morning. The freezing temperatures are forecast to persist for several days.

The public is advised to monitor future forecasts and warnings as warnings may be required or extended.

Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment Canada at www.weatheroffice.gc.ca.

[Gradient Keeper]

4:09 PM IR Analysis
We can now monitor the coming pattern change in real-time with IR/WV Loop. The well modeled shortwave and accompanying trough is nearing southeast Alaska. It is forecast to turn southeast tonight, then more southward Saturday. Kona low has strengthened rapidly the past 24 hours and as it slowly drifts northward will bottom out later tonight. High pressure off the coast it projected to slide a bit closer to 130 W probably around 132 W. The Aleutian ridge is sliding northeast and amplifying over Alaska. I always like seeing things unfold instead of always having to rely on models for initialization or tracking a low pressure area, trough, or arctic front. Let's see exactly how well south this trough digs over the next 48 hours.
http://sat.wrh.noaa.gov/satellite/alternative.php?wfo=pqr&area=nw&type=ir&size=4
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?ir_enhanced+12
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?ir_common+12

 

 

 

[ShawniganLake]

Environment Canada just issued a weather statement for my area..

 

Maybe I'll pick up some strait effect snow.

Some models have been flirting with the idea of at least enough enhancement for some flurries later Sunday and Monday. The risk looks fairly minor at this point.

[MikeInEverett]

What does Phil think about the models not showing much of a reload anymore?

[ShawniganLake]

What does Phil think about the models not showing much of a reload anymore?

I am not much for debating things, but it doesn't really seem like the modelling as a whole has shifted that much when looking at the long range, possible reload situation.

[MossMan]

What does Phil think about the models not showing much of a reload anymore?

Zzzzzz....from the sound of it. Whatever that means.

[MikeInEverett]

I am not much for debating things, but it doesn't really seem like the modelling as a whole has shifted that much when looking at the long range, possible reload situation.

I just based that on what people were posting here, I haven't been able to actually check the models. Everyone sounded sorta disappointed with the models today so that's why I said that. Lol,

[seattleweatherguy]

Weather is unpredictable before 3 days out and even inside 3 days is a problem sometimes. I think Phil means wait it out and see if things do change for the better.

[Gradient Keeper]

[Model Countdown]
Next up....
00z NAM 1 hour 4 minutes
----------------------------------
00z GFS 2 hours 44 minutes
00z GEM 4 hours 4 minutes
00z ECMWF 5 hours 14 minutes

[Gradient Keeper]

18z Ensembles were awful..... onto 00z !

[Snow]

[MikeInEverett]

New 7 day forecast from Mark Nelsen for PDX. Snow on Monday and Friday. Highs just barely get above freezing most of next week. ❄

 

http://lmgcorporate.com/kptv/weather/ibs_web_7-day.jpg

Do you think we will be that warm on Friday? Hopefully that reload comes in so it will be around 33 with snow

[luvssnow_spokane]

There is likely to be no reload based on the models as of today. Not looking good.... Hope they improve.

[Snow]

[Snow]

There is likely to be no reload based on the models as of today. Not looking good.... Hope they improve.

I think they will. For this first cold event, this past Tuesday the models moved all the cold air east then brought it back during the 00z runs. All hope was deemed lost but it was all brought it back. The 12z GFS-Regular was actually very good this morning.

[luvssnow_spokane]

I think they will. For this first cold event, this past Tuesday the models moved all the cold air east then brought it back during the 00z runs. All hope was deemed lost but it was all brought it back. The 12z GFS-Regular was actually very good this morning.

Love your confidence. Based on what I am seeing in the models and decades of seeing the opposite results of what you are calling for I have my doubts. I will be watching and hopeful though. On to the next run...

[snow_wizard]

Talk about deja vu! Go back in time 5 or 6 days to when the ECMWF ensemble was showing a cold pattern for early next week and the GFS was showing absolutely nothing. We all know which ensemble ended up being (or will end up being) correct. Why on Earth would anyone assume this time will be any different?

[snow_wizard]

Love your confidence. Based on what I am seeing in the models and decades of seeing the opposite results of what you are calling for I have my doubts. I will be watching and hopeful though. On to the next run...

This line of reasoning doesn't make a lot of sense since we have basically had no problem getting Arctic outbreaks over the past 13 months or so. Our big problem has been with snow. The chances of the cold reload are pretty decent IMO. I really think the GFS is getting lost by "overthinking" small details. The GFS ensemble has been clueless beyond day 6 or so as of late.

[luvssnow_spokane]

This line of reasoning doesn't make a lot of sense since we have basically had no problem getting Arctic outbreaks over the past 13 months or so. Our big problem has been with snow. The chances of the cold reload are pretty decent IMO. I really think the GFS is getting lost by "overthinking" small details.

Possibly...

[Phil]

Weather is unpredictable before 3 days out and even inside 3 days is a problem sometimes. I think Phil means wait it out and see if things do change for the better.

[Deweydog]

This smile has colder/snowier version of 12-08 written all over it.

[snow_wizard]

So you don't have any real thoughts on how this will evolve?

 

The other possibility is you think we will like the outcome. Hmmm....

[Phil]

Wave-wave interactions are a b**tch to model..the roller coaster ride is far from over..

[luvssnow_spokane]

Wave-wave interactions are a b**tch to model..the roller coaster ride is far from over..

Exactly!! but I am sure that is not what some people wanted to hear/read...

[Deweydog]

Exactly!! but I am sure that is not what some people wanted to hear/read...

Huh? People love to hear the models are jacked up when the models aren't showing what they want to see.

[Front Ranger]

0z NAM has the shortwave slightly further west at 24 hours.

[Snow]

[snow_wizard]

18z NAM has the shortwave slightly further west at 24 hours.

Did you mean 0z?

 

I see it is a hair further west. Any little difference could be a big deal. At first I thought the chances were slim for snow with the initial cold shot, but now it appears there is a chance.