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February 2021 PacNW Weather Discussion


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I just experienced the craziest day of my life. Normal, routine doctor's visit quickly spiraled into a seven hour stay in the ER for a MRI scan to check for malignant tumors or multiple sclerosis. Tha

Downvote this post if you want snow.

Good morning,  As you know, back in late December I decided to end my jovial "ranting" here among you soulless bastard's to focus on more personal matters.  Well despite my better judgement

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1 minute ago, JBolin said:

Anybody (Rob, Jim, Phil, etc) have any idea what type of pattern elicited the nearly 4' of snow in San Francisco in (I believe) 1886?

Is that 4 feet or 4 inches?  I know we had a great event here in mid January 1886.  Could have been a southern extension of that.  Probably big time offshore blocking.  -NAO usually keeps cold from getting very south over the West.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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28 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:
With dewpoints in the negative values, IF we had moisture/snow with wet bulb cooling could you imagine how cold PDX could potentially get? We're talking single digits if we had a strong enough system with lots of moisture and strong east wind.

Everything would have to line up just right to give PDX single digits. Hasn’t happened since 1989. But maybe. If a snowy system managed to make it in the snow would also be very dry powder, not wet snow.

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

It's all about the -NAO driven sideways trough back digging into us.  One thing I have been skeptical about is the ECMWF and GEM wanting to progress the bottom part of the block inland so fast with a Kona low there in combo with the sideways trough over southern Canada. Pretty hard to ignore this kind of model consensus at this time frame.  We'll see.

I'm sure it's possible... unusual pattern. Do you know of any historical examples where a far west-based -NAO worked out like that? Without a significant block on the Pacific side?

Low. Solar.

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1 minute ago, Omegaraptor said:

Everything would have to line up just right to give PDX single digits. Hasn’t happened since 1989. But maybe. If a snowy system managed to make it in the snow would also be very dry powder, not wet snow.

It’s been that long since single digit DPs in Portland? We’ve had multiple times over the past couple years with DPs in the -10 to 5 degrees range. October 2019 even had -4 DP...had a DP of -10 in late February 2019. 

Warm Season Stats

+80s-0

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-0.39”

Warm Season Rainfall-0.39”

Warmest high temp-63

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Just now, TacomaWaWx said:

It’s been that long since single digit DPs in Portland? We’ve had multiple times over the past couple years with DPs in the -10 to 5 degrees range. October 2019 even had -4 DP...had a DP of -10 in late February 2019. 

Oh my bad, I thought Rob was talking about single digit temps. Lol

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2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

I'm sure it's possible... unusual pattern. Do you know of any historical examples where a far west-based -NAO worked out like that? Without a significant block on the Pacific side?

Not for sure.  The analogs have been pointing to late January 1980.  That was a really solid, but mostly dry cold snap.  Dropped to 11 IMBY on that one.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 52

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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19 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

How much snow did you end up with in January?

36" at my house from 1 storm. We are at about 40% of seasonal average now. What is weird is the 30 - 60 day break between storms this season. Its like a continuation of our summer time ridge for the second winter in a row. 

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1 minute ago, AlTahoe said:

36" at my house from 1 storm. We are at about 40% of seasonal average now. What is weird is the 30 - 60 day break between storms this season. Its like a continuation of our summer time ridge for the second winter in a row. 

So the models that showed 300+ inches were wrong?  😀

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

So the models that showed 300+ inches were wrong?  😀

Those GFS while fun to look at are always really far off. Usually 20-33% of the depicted totals is what happens. Mammoth ended up with about 100" from the storm so 33%. GFS is always 3F to cold as well. 

 

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12 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Is that 4 feet or 4 inches?  I know we had a great event here in mid January 1886.  Could have been a southern extension of that.  Probably big time offshore blocking.  -NAO usually keeps cold from getting very south over the West.

Sorry, 4" 

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15 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

36" at my house from 1 storm. We are at about 40% of seasonal average now. What is weird is the 30 - 60 day break between storms this season. Its like a continuation of our summer time ridge for the second winter in a row. 

I can't imagine 36 inches in one storm. That is how much I got for the whole month, and there were a few times where it snowed hard.  At least it seemed like it snowed hard.  If I ever see a 36 inch snowstorm, I may redefine what I think heavy snow is.  

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No action for here on the EC. Maybe a sub-40F high tho? This location is so bad for Arctic cold & snow most years. 2-25-19 was so fukkin' rare.

1613174400-GZ8LF3WBw7g.png

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 49 (Most recent: Apr 12, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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Just now, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

I can't imagine 36 inches in one storm. That is how much I got for the whole month, and there were a few times where it snowed hard.  At least it seemed like it snowed hard.  If I ever see a 36 inch snowstorm, I may redefine what I think heavy snow is.  

I think we had 40 inches here in a 24-hour period in February 2019.    Its not real fun.   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, JW8 said:

Can you post the 00Z to compare against, por favor?

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-1612483200-1612483200-1613779200-10.gif

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

I think we had 40 inches here in a 24-hour period in February 2019.    Its not real fun.   

That would be amazing to watch, but a lot of work to clear.  I can only imagine the berm on my driveway after such a big snow.  And the berms are always compact and icy, even if it is a relatively dry snow.

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4 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

No action for here on the EC. Maybe a sub-40F high tho? This location is so bad for Arctic cold & snow most years. 2-25-19 was so fukkin' rare.

1613174400-GZ8LF3WBw7g.png

High of 37 in mid-February isn't half bad. I bet 850mb temps at EUG never got below -8C in February 2014. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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15 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

I can't imagine 36 inches in one storm. That is how much I got for the whole month, and there were a few times where it snowed hard.  At least it seemed like it snowed hard.  If I ever see a 36 inch snowstorm, I may redefine what I think heavy snow is.  

Back in Dec 08 Coeur d'Alene got 37 inches from one storm over 36 hours. Everybody should experience that at least once. 

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I know Tim got 40-50" during that storm, but he just made a claim he got more in 24-hrs than the Oregon all time record. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Most we've had in a day was a pathetic 21" in January 2012. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I know Tim got 40-50" during that storm, but he just made a claim he got more in 24-hrs than the Oregon all time record. 

I think it took more like 30 hours for him. Makes sense he'd remember the total and feel like it basically fell in one day.

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Everett Snowfall

 

2018-19: 24.75"

2019-20: 10.5"

 

1/10: 0.5"

1/12: 5.5"

1/13: 1"

1/14: 1.5"

1/15: 2"

 

 

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Some people hate snow...They would not fit in well here. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Remember that guy from Tucson who showed up around February 2019. He was like a good luck charm. Bet he's seen more snow than PDX this winter. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

High of 37 in mid-February isn't half bad. I bet 850mb temps at EUG never got below -8C in February 2014. 

Springfield would be around 40F in this setup with downsloping.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 49 (Most recent: Apr 12, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Remember that guy from Tucson who showed up around February 2019. He was like a good luck charm. Bet he's seen more snow than PDX this winter. 

Oh I forgot about him! Everyone was annoyed cause he kept getting excited about his weather and we were like 'huh?, what is there to be excited about?'.

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Remember that guy from Tucson who showed up around February 2019. He was like a good luck charm. Bet he's seen more snow than PDX this winter. 

He showed up last winter right before the big January 2020 bust. We both use another weather forum as well, I showed him this forum and he decided to join. 

FWIW, he normally lives near Miami but was going to school in Tucson.

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1 minute ago, Omegaraptor said:

He showed up last winter right before the big January 2020 bust. We both use another weather forum as well, I showed him this forum and he decided to join. 

FWIW, he normally lives near Miami but was going to school in Tucson.

Miami.  Talk about a sucky climate to live in 

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I remember getting snowed in at Sequoia Nat Park in March 1979 when 2-3 feet of snow falling overnight.  We were Nordic skiing near Mono Rock overlook out in exposed area when terrifying thunder snow hit.  My brothers and I had moments earlier laughed at the lightning hazard sign as if it were impossible to have lightning in winter.

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1 minute ago, Omegaraptor said:

He showed up last winter right before the big January 2020 bust. We both use another weather forum as well, I showed him this forum and he decided to join. 

FWIW, he normally lives near Miami but was going to school in Tucson.

No wonder why he thought Tucson had a cold winter climate. lol

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Pretty complex and fascinating stuff. It all really depends how much energy is being shunted to AK as the pacific and the big a** block merges. 

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7 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Springfield would be around 40F in this setup with downsloping.

For some perspective, most people agree late February 2018 was not a bad stretch. I don't think anyone would be disappointed if we saw something similar. At one point 850mb temps bottomed out around -10C at SLE.

 

PDX had 3 sub 40 highs (34,37.39)

EUG had 1 (37)

SLE never had a max below 40 during that stretch. 

It was a little later in the month, so there is more potential from a climo perspective next week, but once we get past the first ten days of February it gets pretty tough to have a sub-40 high at the lowest levels, especially with full sunshine. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 52.02"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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42 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

I'm sure it's possible... unusual pattern. Do you know of any historical examples where a far west-based -NAO worked out like that? Without a significant block on the Pacific side?

February 1936, March 1960, and December 1983? At least to a 21st century extent, the pattern looks kinda similar and none of those were super -PNA driven.

March 3, 1960 is subtly one of the most incredible winter weather days in U.S. history. Literally the entire northern tier of states was under a snowstorm at the same time. 

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14 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

No wonder why he thought Tucson had a cold winter climate. lol

I don't know, Miami NWS actually has a falling iguana hazard (as a joke) but I believe they issued one last year after overnight temps dropped to around 26F. 

So screw Tucson or (guy) has a warped sense of "cold", I have beer in my fridge colder than Tucson. 

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12 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

I think it took more like 30 hours for him. Makes sense he'd remember the total and feel like it basically fell in one day.

Almost all of it fell from about noon to noon (2/11 to 2/12).

We never officially measured... just guessing based on our heights and trying to walk in the yard which was almost impossible.   I am sure we had 4 feet on the ground on 2/12... but had about 8 inches on the ground before that storm.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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7 minutes ago, luvssnow_seattle said:

I dream of that!!!

The year before we got upwards of 2 feet of heavy wet snow and it froze. That one was worse. The Dec 08 event was champagne powder, so it was easy to shovel.

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