Money Posted December 19, 2014 Report Share Posted December 19, 2014 Not until Monday it won't be sampled Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted December 19, 2014 Report Share Posted December 19, 2014 also it is hard to tell where the rain snow line is going to be. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 19, 2014 Report Share Posted December 19, 2014 Tom hoe does the Euro ensembles look ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 19, 2014 Report Share Posted December 19, 2014 I am just gonna ride the JMA Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 19, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 19, 2014 Tom hoe does the Euro ensembles look ?Sorry, been out at the pool catching some rays before I leave back for Chicago late tonight. 12z Euro ensembles looking good for Wisco. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 19, 2014 Report Share Posted December 19, 2014 this would be a curveball MQT's latest guess: THERE IS ALSO AQUESTION OF IF THIS SYSTEM WILL GO FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST AND TURNINTO AN EAST COAST STORM RATHER THAN A GREAT LAKES STORM. LOOKING ATTHE NEW ECMWF...IT CONTINUES TO GO WITH A GREAT LAKES SYSTEM...BUTTHE 500 MB TROUGH BECOMES VERY NEGATIVELY TILTED. HAVE A FEELING THEFURTHER SOUTH AND EAST SOLUTION MAY VERIFY WITH THE EAST COAST STORMTHOUGH AND HOPEFULLY LATER MODEL RUNS WILL BE ABLE TO FIGURE THISOUT. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 19, 2014 Report Share Posted December 19, 2014 I'm sitting pretty on that map. Lock it in! 1/2 in. is still a white Christmas right? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 19, 2014 Report Share Posted December 19, 2014 GB EVENTUALLY THE PROGS SHIFT THIS DEEP UPPER LOW JUST EAST OF THEAREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR A COMPLETE TRANSITION TO SNOW FROM WESTTO EAST...BUT BY THEN THE SURFACE LOW IS LIFTING OVER LOWERMICHIGAN AND THE MAJORITY OF THE SYSTEM PCPN SHIFTS NORTHEAST ASWELL. TRACK OF THE DEVELOPING H850 LOW WOULD SUPPORT MORE SNOWOVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WHILE FURTHER SNOW ACCUMULATION MAYWRAP AROUND THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS WILL BE ON THEINCREASE TO POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY LEVELS AT LEAST. DEPENDING ONSNOWFALL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND GOING SNOW THURSDAY...VARIOUSHEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED INCLUDING WIND ADVISORY HEADLINES WHERESNOW NOT AN ISSUE. AT THIS TIME...NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN APPEARSTO BE MOST IMPACTED FROM THIS SYSTEM DUE TO MORE SNOW IS ANTICIPATEDBEFORE THE WINDS INCREASE. WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE MODELCONSISTENCY FROM RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL BEFORE ADDINGBETTER DETAIL OF THE IMPACTS TO AFFECT THE REGION. THE WARMERSOLUTIONS IF CORRECT MAY ALSO IMPACT THE RIVER AND LAKE ICECONDITIONS.DUE TO LIMITED CONFIDENCE ISSUES WITH DAYS 3-5...LOW CONFIDENCEISSUES EXPECTED FOR DAY 6-7...DUE TO LACK OF CONSISTENCY WITH ATRAILING SYSTEM ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. RUNS 24 HOURS AGO WEREWELL SOUTH...BUT MORNING RUNS TRACK THE SYSTEM BACK OVER THEGREAT LAKES REGION WITH THE ECMWF MUCH MORE ROBUST WITH A WINTEREVENT NEXT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.ANYONE WITH TRAVEL PLANS NEXT WEEK SHOULD STAY TUNED TO THE LATESTFORECASTS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshoe Posted December 19, 2014 Report Share Posted December 19, 2014 Nope. 1" officially I'm sitting pretty on that map. Lock it in! 1/2 in. is still a white Christmas right? Quote WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 19, 2014 Report Share Posted December 19, 2014 GFS/NAM starting/started on time HR 84 NAM (lol) http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/18/nam_namer_084_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 19, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 19, 2014 12z GGEM...after reading one of the Disco's someone posted here, they talked about how the 12z GGEM had a quicker solution with the southern wave. You can see that energy in the map below. The Euro has a tendancy to hold back energy in the Rockies to long and the GGEM may be a bit to fast along with the GFS. However, if that energy kicks out quicker, the southern piece has more time to develop and phase. Obviously, a quicker phase is what we want so that is something to pay attn to as the model runs come in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 19, 2014 Report Share Posted December 19, 2014 Big changes on the 18z GFS already compared to 12z Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 19, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 19, 2014 FWIW, even when we get better sampling by Sunday (ish), until this storm starts getting its act together in the central CONUS and when all the moving parts start to phase, this storm can still throw a curve ball. These type of cyclone's almost always have some way of wrecking havoc in the modeling 24-48 hours before the event. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 19, 2014 Report Share Posted December 19, 2014 lol, compare the 12z and 18z GFS and have a laugh. HR 102 18z GFS http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/gfs_namer_102_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshoe Posted December 19, 2014 Report Share Posted December 19, 2014 Posted about the models on TTB 2pm EST December 19: NOAA is experiencing a large data outage that is affecting all American models including the GFS, NAM, GEFS, and GEPS. The ECMWF, CMC, JMA, and NAVGEM are unaffected. 3:00pm EST: Apparently the backup server also has problems. The 18z NAM is late, implying problems will continue until further notice. 18z GFS may fail to come in entirely. All depends on when NOAA fixes these data issues. Must be North Korea! 4 Quote WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 19, 2014 Report Share Posted December 19, 2014 18z GFS looks a lot like 12z GFSP and 12z GGEM http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/gfs_namer_114_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 19, 2014 Report Share Posted December 19, 2014 24 HR QPF http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/gfs_namer_126_precip_p24.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 19, 2014 Report Share Posted December 19, 2014 Looks like a good 4-8 inch storm in E. WI with 8+ up near GB. Long way to go with this yet though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 19, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 19, 2014 Look at the trough dig on the leeward side of the Rockies, something I thought that would be pronounced as we move forward due to the ridge building more on the west coast. The re-curving system in the GOA is helping carve out a deeper trough in Central CONUS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 19, 2014 Report Share Posted December 19, 2014 18z PAR GFS is gonna be another huge hit for someone http://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/gfs_namer_096_1000_850_thick_l.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 19, 2014 Report Share Posted December 19, 2014 105 http://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/gfs_namer_105_1000_850_thick_l.gif 12z HR 111 http://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/gfs_namer_111_1000_850_thick_l.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted December 19, 2014 Report Share Posted December 19, 2014 there is a fantastic article on the weather centre's weather blog highlighting the christmas storn and andrew has said that the storm will go neg tilt and he also has showed about which states will get snow from eastren wisconsin to illinois getting acclumated snow with illinois are significant where totals surpass the 6+ benchmark. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 19, 2014 Report Share Posted December 19, 2014 Never really gets stronger til it's up in N. MI 108 http://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/gfs_namer_108_1000_850_thick_l.gif Still has a track in the W. part of MI though. It's been very consistent. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 19, 2014 Report Share Posted December 19, 2014 Posted about the models on TTB 2pm EST December 19: NOAA is experiencing a large data outage that is affecting all American models including the GFS, NAM, GEFS, and GEPS. The ECMWF, CMC, JMA, and NAVGEM are unaffected. 3:00pm EST: Apparently the backup server also has problems. The 18z NAM is late, implying problems will continue until further notice. 18z GFS may fail to come in entirely. All depends on when NOAA fixes these data issues. Must be North Korea! Anybody else having issues with Instant Weather Maps?? Last nights 00Z run was slow--- now it seems shot. 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFanOMA Posted December 19, 2014 Report Share Posted December 19, 2014 Local met. that has been posting on this strom just said he's done posting the operational GFS. Said it's worthless. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 19, 2014 Report Share Posted December 19, 2014 And the last frame HR 120 Something like that would be intense. Nice moisture connection from the Atlantic Ocean. You don't usually see that unless a system is moving really slow. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chances14 Posted December 19, 2014 Report Share Posted December 19, 2014 there is a fantastic article on the weather centre's weather blog highlighting the christmas storn and andrew has said that the storm will go neg tilt and he also has showed about which states will get snow from eastren wisconsin to illinois getting acclumated snow with illinois are significant where totals surpass the 6+ benchmark.i assume you are refering to this article. http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2014/12/christmas-eve-potentially-significant_19.html If so, he never states in the artilcle what he thinks the storm is going to do. He is just describing what each model is showing right now Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 20, 2014 Report Share Posted December 20, 2014 This is reminiscent of the Christmas blizzard of 2009. That one was a larger storm but I recall that storm showing up to 2 feet of snow in e Iowa on the models about 4-5 days out only to shift significantly further west. Could happen here too if this phases earlier as Tom stated Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted December 20, 2014 Report Share Posted December 20, 2014 This is reminiscent of the Christmas blizzard of 2009. That one was a larger storm but I recall that storm showing up to 2 feet of snow in e Iowa on the models about 4-5 days out only to shift significantly further west. Could happen here too if this phases earlier as Tom stated That storm was quite nondescript locally, mostly a heavy soaking cold rain, I think we saw an inch or two of snow at some point, but that was a weird storm, but an easy one to forget in Milwaukee. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
centralweather44 Posted December 20, 2014 Report Share Posted December 20, 2014 This is reminiscent of the Christmas blizzard of 2009. That one was a larger storm but I recall that storm showing up to 2 feet of snow in e Iowa on the models about 4-5 days out only to shift significantly further west. Could happen here too if this phases earlier as Tom statedI would take it. Ended up with a foot of snow here and a storm I will never forget pushing. I can almost guarantee it ain't going to happen but man would that be something. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshoe Posted December 20, 2014 Report Share Posted December 20, 2014 This is reminiscent of the Christmas blizzard of 2009. That one was a larger storm but I recall that storm showing up to 2 feet of snow in e Iowa on the models about 4-5 days out only to shift significantly further west. Could happen here too if this phases earlier as Tom stated Over an inch of rain and 5" of snow. I remember coming home to snow as hard as concrete on the driveway. Quote WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 20, 2014 Report Share Posted December 20, 2014 18z DGEX has a bomb in Illinois! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted December 20, 2014 Report Share Posted December 20, 2014 18z DGEX has a bomb in Illinois! You would be the last person I'd expect to mention the DGEX, that's a weenie model. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted December 20, 2014 Report Share Posted December 20, 2014 18z DGEX has a bomb in Illinois!i don't see it being a bomb over illinois. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted December 20, 2014 Report Share Posted December 20, 2014 was just noticing that a member on accuweather fourms said that southren illinois getting 15 inches of wrap around snow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted December 20, 2014 Report Share Posted December 20, 2014 berine rayno in his video on accuweather sees that the northren low shifting south putting in/oh in the heaviest snow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 20, 2014 Report Share Posted December 20, 2014 was just noticing that a member on accuweather fourms said that southren illinois getting 15 inches of wrap around snow. We'll that person was right... Thought I'd show the last map of the 12km NAM. Showing the system to the north wrapping the cold air ahead of the system. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 20, 2014 Report Share Posted December 20, 2014 I noticed that on the nam that it seemed like it was showing like it could potentially phase sooner. I wish we could see the next few frames of the nam 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 20, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 20, 2014 I noticed that on the nam that it seemed like it was showing like it could potentially phase sooner. I wish we could see the next few frames of the namHowever, it is the 84HR of the NAM...but I know what your saying. Let's hope this kind of trend continues. Sure looks like it wants to begin the process of phasing and cut early. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted December 20, 2014 Report Share Posted December 20, 2014 I love how we can't even see what the GFS is doing because of the issues on Instant Weather Maps. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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