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January 2015 Observations and Discussion

Tom

By Tom
in East of the Rockies

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Geos
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That is one massive West Coast ridge on the 8th! Can clearly see where the air is coming from for our area.   Took these snow pictures today within a radius of 10 miles. 10° and falling out there righ

Tom
Tom

This type of cold after a warm December is going to be a rude awakening for a lot of people.  Can't wait to see Lake Michigan steaming like a hot cup of tea!

Tom
Tom

Fantastic comeback victory!  I went to this bar down the street from the UC called "West End".  It's the official Hawks bar.  The atmosphere was awesome.  This team never gives up that's for sure and

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gabel23 Mentor

gabel23

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This is my first winter out here in NE.  I am used to Northeastern winters.

 

What part of the northeast you come from and what brings you to nebraska?? Believe me, we sometimes see some impressive winter storms, we have just been in a rut the past couple winters!!

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Snowlover76 Newbie

Snowlover76

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What part of the northeast you come from and what brings you to nebraska?? Believe me, we sometimes see some impressive winter storms, we have just been in a rut the past couple winters!!

I grew up in a small town in Tioga County near Binghamton, NY, we averaged 85-95" there, then I moved to Long Island in 2007 where we get 35" a year but lately we had a streak of 50+ inch winters. although I think they've had 4" so far there.

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clintbeed1993 Enthusiast

clintbeed1993

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I grew up in a small town in Tioga County near Binghamton, NY, we averaged 85-95" there, then I moved to Long Island in 2007 where we get 35" a year but lately we had a streak of 50+ inch winters. although I think they've had 4" so far there.

 

The 35 a year will feel like the 85 once you spend a couple winters in this god awful state.  We are lucky to get 20 inches total anymore.

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Jaycee Explorer

Jaycee

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The 35 a year will feel like the 85 once you spend a couple winters in this god awful state. We are lucky to get 20 inches total anymore.

You will, however enjoy the severe weather if your a fan. I've lived in 8 different states now, and there is truly nothing like it. Storms are wicked here.

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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Hopefully the Euro is onto something...GGEM had a couple runs as well.  I was showing last week comparisons to the infamous Blizzard of '78 that hit the Lower Lakes after a tranquil pattern mid January that eventually went into over drive in late January for the rest of Winter .  Euro Ensembles from last week were showing this scenario and now they are coming back.

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Tony Enthusiast

Tony

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Something else to think about, the EPO during the biggest events in this region and thus Jan 67, Dec 74, Jan78, Jan 99, Dec 2000, Last Jan 5th and in every case the epo had just gone negative a day or so before the storm or day of. Let's see how this plays out down the road to see if it has any merit.

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Tony Enthusiast

Tony

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Here Blizzard, Blizzard, Blizzard....

 

00z Euro with a 980mb Bomb in W OH @ HR 210...

Wow, 2 feet in some locations and this coming from the Euro is impressive. Look at the cold pool that is surrounding this storm system, also impressive!!

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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Something else to think about, the EPO during the biggest events in this region and thus Jan 67, Dec 74, Jan78, Jan 99, Dec 2000, Last Jan 5th and in every case the epo had just gone negative a day or so before the storm or day of. Let's see how this plays out down the road to see if it has any merit.

This storm would fit the pattern to develop a monster on the heels of a pattern change.  Sort of like the Christmas Eve storm system but the cold wasn't around.  I can see the models flip flop around as there are massive changes happening in the atmosphere going forward.  All I know for certain is that there are going to be a lot of "eyes" watching this system over the next week!  Haha

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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Tom, speaking of the Christmas storm, the Euro also had a whopper for that time frame but backed off of it. This time around looks to be a different scenario though. 

During that period, the AO/NAO were near neutral and no cold air whatsoever in North America.  Remember, the PV established itself in Eurasia back in December but this time it has a piece of it in North America.  Also, that system on Christmas Eve had so many variables (2 separate pieces of energy, phasing, cold air, etc)  This system comes out in 1 piece out of the Rockies and forms in the Plains.  With the teleconnections supporting a slow/phased system, I'm more optimistic about this one than any other storm we tracked this year.  I have been waiting for all the variables to come together to form a monster, it seems like they may be aligning right.  Good thing the PNA will be near neutral so it having it cut up the OV/Lower Lakes seems reasonable.

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Hawkeye Grand Master

Hawkeye

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The best-case Euro solution would still miss those of us farther nw, but at least it would be interesting and would clobber some to the east.  The GFS this morning continues to show absolutely nothing but boring garbage suppression.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Niko Veteran

Niko

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My area gets smoked with nearly 2ft or more. Way too early to get excited over this massive storm. Its still a week away. If by Tuesday or at the latest Wednesday it still showing like this, then, look-out. Until then, it will be fun tracking this monster and lots can change.

Currently have a nice snowpack and with more snow Sunday in the forecast, will just keep adding to the beauty. The warm-up that was expected is probably not happening. My highs are now low to mid 30's for Saturday with late pm snowshowers with possible snow accumulations. Now, if you want to call that a warm-up :lol: , that's fine.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN Insane!

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024: Trace

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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Run to Run variability this far out is expected, therefore, its best to utilize the ensembles to give us an "idea" of where this storm would track.  Taking a look at the 12z Euro Ensembles, I'd say nearly 50% of them show some type of snow shield from KS/NE towards the OV/Lakes region.  500mb maps continue to point towards some sort of Pan Handle Hook or Cutter.

 

I think the GFS is over powering the HP which crushes the energy in the Rockies.  Once the models get better handling on the Blocking by this weekend we should see some better agreement amongst the models.

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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To see Euro 850 ensembles map showing -8/-10C departures this far out is incredible...whoever has a deep snow pack by this time is going to set record low temps and would likely be the coldest air of the season.  Could the PV make a visit this year???

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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January 1-15th will likely end up colder for the nation as a whole compared to last year.  In fact, the entire month this year will likely blow last year out of the water.  Just incredible to see back to back January's with this much cold.  The kind of severe cold coming to close out the month is probably comparable to the intense shots that came last year but covering much more real estate.

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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CPC issued its new Feb and FMA Outlooks...Feb looks like the NW NAMER ridge is in place, FL stays warm which may be indicating some weak SE ridge.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/off_temp_small.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/off_prcp_small.gif

 

From the way this CPC outlook looks going forward into the Spring, its lining up close to what the JAMSTEC was showing.  Will wait till the new run comes in later this month.  One thing the CPC is seeing is a nice active sub tropical jet.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead01/off01_temp_small.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead01/off01_prcp_small.gif

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Geos Proficient

Geos

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In some winters past, January can be tamer on the precipitation side of things in the Midwest, while it is colder than normal. Many times things have picked back up during the last week of the month and into February. Have seen several times, periods that run from January 25th to the first week of March turn out quite snowy.

 

As far as today, it was downright mild out there. High of 36°. Snow compacted down some.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Maxim Newbie

Maxim

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In some winters past, January can be tamer on the precipitation side of things in the Midwest, while it is colder than normal. Many times things have picked back up during the last week of the month and into February. Have seen several times, periods that run from January 25th to the first week of March turn out quite snowy.

 

As far as today, it was downright mild out there. High of 36°. Snow compacted down some.

Makes me wonder how warm Saturday might get...

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clintbeed1993 Enthusiast

clintbeed1993

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In some winters past, January can be tamer on the precipitation side of things in the Midwest, while it is colder than normal. Many times things have picked back up during the last week of the month and into February. Have seen several times, periods that run from January 25th to the first week of March turn out quite snowy.

 

As far as today, it was downright mild out there. High of 36°. Snow compacted down some.

 

In my short time on this earth I can attest to this as well.  Seems like January wants to mimic November in terms of precipitation most years.  February and March seem to bring more storminess.

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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In some winters past, January can be tamer on the precipitation side of things in the Midwest, while it is colder than normal. Many times things have picked back up during the last week of the month and into February. Have seen several times, periods that run from January 25th to the first week of March turn out quite snowy.

 

As far as today, it was downright mild out there. High of 36°. Snow compacted down some.

East Asia is about to go through hyper activity over the next 2 weeks.  I remember back in December, that part of the world was bombarded week after week and its about to cycle back through that active period.  Fun times ahead.

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gosaints Collaborator

gosaints

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From a well respected met on americanwx.

 

"This pattern as its showing itself to be generally is not going to be conducive for a lot of the subforum to receive any appreciable snows. Something will have to drastically change in February and beyond to bring the snows and I, frankly, just don't see anything good happening for the next two to three weeks.  Beyond that as we get some changeable conditions across the Midwest, likely between Arctic shots of air, we may be able to pull something good through.  But if I were hedging my bets the best snows the rest of the Winter will be Southeast of a Kansas City- Detroit zone.  And I seriously hope that I am wrong but I am a bit fearful.  We'll get a few clippers here and there in this area but I just don't see a big threat of organized snow storms for most of us in Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Northern Illinois.  

 

And I'll be the first one to admit I thought we'd see a fairly decent snow season across most of the Central/Eastern Midwest... so far for January we are off and running good compared to the norms but there just doesn't appear to be to much more in the pipeline for the month around here and that means we'll likely finish below normal when all is said and done.  

 

The biggest concern might be the near record cold coming at the very tail end of the month, that is some mean lookin' cold but without a decent/fresh snowpack the cold might underperform.... at least I hope that it does.  Temps in the mid/upper 20s below zero generally are good for nothing and cause to many problems.  

 

Sorry I am just rambling.  Its also been interesting to note this Winter that in November (before Winter technically I know) those snow systems performed a bit better than expected, nothing in December here, and the couple systems we've had in January have been a bit of a dud... certainly performed a bit worse than I expected.  I just don't want a dud for February, at least we will be off to a cold looking February as it stands now... just want some moisture and organized system to go with it.  Okay back to your regularly scheduled programming. 

"
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