February 2014 in the PNW

[Jesse]

PDX is currently at 22 degrees with wind gusts near 40mph and a windchill of 4f. It's been awhile since we've seen conditions like that there.

[snow_wizard]

Dramatic ENSO cooling as of late due to the strengthening Walker Cell:

 

 

 

The Nino could be in trouble.  The 30 day SOI is at 14 now.  I'm pretty stunned at the recent turn of events.

[Weather101]

Wow... this is what Sunday looks like now???

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/00/nam_namer_084_sim_radar.gif

uh oh

[snow_wizard]

Along Lake Washington Blvd as well... and in downtown Bellevue.

 

Not surprising a bunch of California yuppies would plant palms.  We just need a good old fashioned January to take care of it.  This cold snap will probably take out a few.

[Gradient Keeper]

The low isn't even that far out. Can't we just start tracking it in real time at this point?

Water Vapor Loop looks interesting.... Very volatile pattern evolving.

[East Dubzz]

Could the cold be suppressing the precipitation further south? Or is that not how it works over here? Sorry, I know our weather is much different than yours, that's why I'm asking.

[TT-SEA]

Not surprising a bunch of California yuppies would plant palms.  We just need a good old fashioned January to take care of it.  This cold snap will probably take out a few.

 

 

I doubt it Jim.

 

They will be just fine.

[TT-SEA]

Could the cold be suppressing the precipitation further south? Or is that not how it works over here? Sorry, I know our weather is much different than yours, that's why I'm asking.

 

 

Exactly what the models are showing... no warm air push and therefore no precipitation over the weekend.

[brody]

Down to 19.6 F here now 

[Phil]

The Nino could be in trouble. The 30 day SOI is at 14 now. I'm pretty stunned at the recent turn of events.

What Niño are you referring to, exactly? We've been dead neutral for a few years.

 

The big transition beginning in the stratosphere right now will allow the MJO/tropical circulations to "unload" this summer, aided by the Solar maximum..forcing us into a weak or moderate El Niño by October or November 2014.

 

This graphic explains why the QBO is so important in regards to uplift/instability in the tropics, hence the MJO:

 

http://img834.imageshack.us/img834/7809/z90g.jpg

[TT-SEA]

Actually... the NAM shows the temperatures moderating after tomorrow.

 

NAM MOS which has been running cold has SEA at 30 tomorrow... then 36 on Friday... and then all the way up to 41 on Saturday.

 

The cold is peaking now.  

 

The dewpoints stay low... in the 20s... but the air temperature starts to moderate.

[HighlandExperience]

Actually... the NAM shows the temperatures moderating after tomorrow.

 

NAM MOS which has been running cold has SEA at 30 tomorrow... then 36 on Friday... and then all the way up to 41 on Saturday.

 

The cold is peaking now.

 

Another lame transition

[peregrinator]

00Z RGEM is very different from the NAM. Has snow starting in the Willamette Valley by 7AM tomorrow, and then continuing almost nonstop throughout the run, even as far north as PDX. Flurries get as far north as the Canadian border, although there isn't a huge amount of accumulation north of OLM.

 http://i.imgur.com/j7CpD18.gif

[FroYoBro]

Wow, the GFS is completely different from the NAM. Looks more like the Euro. 

[TT-SEA]

Wow, the GFS is completely different from the NAM. Looks more like the Euro. 

 

This is so confusing.

 

NAM does SUCK with frontogenesis though.

[HighlandExperience]

Wow, the GFS is completely different from the NAM. Looks more like the Euro.

 

Nam is out to lunch. Might be on sum crack.

[TT-SEA]

00Z GFS is even way north of the 12Z GFS!

[Poulsbo Snowman]

Actually... the NAM shows the temperatures moderating after tomorrow.

 

NAM MOS which has been running cold has SEA at 30 tomorrow... then 36 on Friday... and then all the way up to 41 on Saturday.

 

The cold is peaking now.  

 

The dewpoints stay low... in the 20s... but the air temperature starts to moderate.

 

 

I don't buy what you're selling.

[Snowman Josh]

Tim = Someone I could do without anymore on this forum.

 

Listening to him constantly think he is the god of everything is so tiring. You can call him out on something he is wrong about and he tries to twist it into a lie.

 

I remember my first beer!! I was 12. This is how Tim acts.

[BLI snowman]

This is so confusing.

 

NAM does SUCK with frontogenesis though.

 

NAM sucks with a lot of things.

 

Literally the only model that's backtracking for now, after showing a way different solution 18 hours ago.

[TT-SEA]

Tim = Someone I could do without anymore on this forum.

 

Listening to him constantly think he is the god of everything is so tiring. You can call him out on something he is wrong about and he tries to twist it into a lie.

 

I remember my first beer!! I was 12. This is how Tim acts.

 

 

 

Rough.

 

I said 30-35 for the parade about 20 times on here.   It was 32 in downtown Seattle today.    Can't twist that.

[Jesse]

I don't buy what you're selling.

 

No one should.

[TT-SEA]

PDX better gear up for some snow tomorrow!   

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_namer_024_precip_p03.gif

[HighlandExperience]

00Z GFS is even way north of the 12Z GFS!

This was bound to happen.

[FroYoBro]

So Portland either gets nothing if you follow the NAM or a huge snowstorm if you follow the GFS. 

[TT-SEA]

No one should.

 

I just reported what the 00Z NAM MOS showed.    Was not selling anything.

[TT-SEA]

This was bound to happen.

 

Should know... it always trends north.    

 

We doubt it at times... but it almost never fails.

[Jesse]

00Z GFS is perfect. Frame it. Don't change a thing.

[Snowman Josh]

I just reported what the 00Z NAM MOS showed.    Was not selling anything.

 

Tim is a joke to this forum. Can't believe he is married. Must be one tolerant woman. Don't pass the know it all crap to your kids please.

[Snow]

GAME WINNER BY OOZ GFS!

[TT-SEA]

Despite the northward trend... the Seattle area still ends up with absolutely nothing.   

[TT-SEA]

Tim is a joke to this forum. Can't believe he is married. Must be one tolerant woman. Don't pass the know it all crap to your kids please.

 

Really?    Throwing personal insults.    Real nice.      

 

BH - please delete this crap.   

[Snow]

My prayer this morning has been answered!

[Poulsbo Snowman]

I just reported what the 00Z NAM MOS showed.    Was not selling anything.

It's not what you're saying.  Rather, it's the way you do it.  Almost taunting the board at every opportunity.  You're a smart guy--you know what I mean. 

[Deweydog]

Despite the northward trend... the Seattle area still ends up with absolutely nothing.   

 

At least a couple of us here will die a painful death from cancer.  

[epiceast]

00z GFS second low is looking strong and on track to go reasonably far south.

[Perturbed Member]

00z GFS shows the low take pretty much the ideal track for PDX. Looks like might be accumulating snow up to Olympia, unless the low comes in even further north.

[TT-SEA]

It's not what you're saying.  Rather, it's the way you do it.  Almost taunting the board at every opportunity.  You're a smart guy--you know what I mean. 

 

That was nothing more than information with the NAM MOS.      I hate having to filter model data on here to protect sensitive people.    Just report what it shows.    It is what it is.

[Jesse]

00z GFS shows the low take pretty much the ideal track for PDX. Looks like might be accumulating snow up to Olympia, unless the low comes in even further north.

 

Let's not push it.

[TT-SEA]

At least a couple of us here will die a painful death from cancer.  

 

More than a couple.