February 2014 in the PNW

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Through Friday morning at 4am

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d2/snow24.36.0000.gif

 

This puts Salem in the bullseye. 8-10" for my location.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Here is what the RPM has to say...

 

http://www.cascadeaccess.com/~mnelsen/RPM_72_SNOW_00z.jpg

[Shadow]

I am right on the edge of this.

[Skagit Weather]

I'm a bit nervous about the WRF-GFS. Shows the precip missing Portland entirely tomorrow, just barely. It was still a huge improvement over the 12z run but still.I hope this low spreads precip much further north than predicted. 

Yeah, like 200-250 miles north.

[brody]

Here is what the RPM has to say...

 

http://www.cascadeaccess.com/~mnelsen/RPM_72_SNOW_00z.jpg

SWEET, there is a 1/2" blob over the Kitsap peninsula but D****T that doesnt help me

[Poulsbo Snowman]

That blob might be my inch!

[Perturbed Member]

00z RPM http://www.cascadeaccess.com/~mnelsen/web_RPM_Text_00z_PDX.jpg

[TT-SEA]

Through Friday at 4 p.m.

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d2/snow48.48.0000.gif

[TT-SEA]

That blob might be my inch!

 

Have those words ever been written together like that?    

[Poulsbo Snowman]

Have those words ever been written together like that?    

Oops.  I need to watch what I say in here.

[TT-SEA]

00z RPM http://www.cascadeaccess.com/~mnelsen/web_RPM_Text_00z_PDX.jpg

 

 

Dewpoint up to 34 by Saturday afternoon?    Odd with an east wind still being shown.

 

And 40 degrees on Friday?

 

I have no idea how this model does in these situations.

[MossMan]

Currently 16 degrees at my house and dropping rapidly. Going to be one very cold night! I was working outside in Pasco this morning where it was about 10 degrees with a 15 to 20MPH wind, now that was brutal cold!!

[FroYoBro]

Dewpoint up to 34 by Saturday afternoon?    Odd with an east wind still being shown.

 

And 40 degrees on Friday?

 

I have no idea how this model does in these situations.

Yeah, the temperature on Friday is ridiculous with snow cover and east wind. 

[GobBluth]

Rpm looks much too quick of a warm up.

[snow_wizard]

We certainly need the traditional northward trend to happen this time!  I'll never forget the dramatic jump northward in Nov 2010.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Through Friday at 4 p.m.

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d2/snow48.48.0000.gif

 

4"+ from Eugene to the south metro area. The E. Wind is going to kill a lot of the precip near the gorge. 

[HighlandExperience]

We certainly need the traditional northward trend to happen this time!  I'll never forget the dramatic jump northward in Nov 2010.

 

I guess we better start praying 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

We certainly need the traditional northward trend to happen this time!  I'll never forget the dramatic jump northward in Nov 2010.

 

Apples to oranges comparison.

[Jesse]

4"+ from Eugene to the south metro area. The E. Wind is going to kill a lot of the precip near the gorge. 

 

Is that why the RPM showed 7.5" for Hood River?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

NWS has just upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning for the South Willamette Valley.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Is that why the RPM showed 7.5" for Hood River?

 

February 28, 1996 look it up...

[weatherfan2012]

What Niño are you referring to, exactly? We've been dead neutral for a few years.

The big transition beginning in the stratosphere right now will allow the MJO/tropical circulations to "unload" this summer, aided by the Solar maximum..forcing us into a weak or moderate El Niño by October or November 2014.

This graphic explains why the QBO is so important in regards to uplift/instability in the tropics, hence the MJO:http://img834.imageshack.us/img834/7809/z90g.jpg

yeah the pacific ssts have not been any where close to an el nino look this year as you said it been dead neuture the past 2 years.which had been a great enso call by you.

[Jesse]

February 28, 1996 look it up...

 

PDX had a high of 39 that day and Salem was 48. Your point?

[TT-SEA]

Through Saturday at 4 p.m.

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d2/snow72.72.0000.gif

[luminen]

Fairbanks reporting 13F and freezing drizzle. Their NWS even issued an advisory for a large part of the interior for freezing drizzle. Very odd!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

PDX had a high of 39 that day and Salem was 48. Your point?

 

Snowed quite a bit in Eugene that morning. It was forecast to make it all the way to PDX. Very strong offshore flow and dry air evaporated everything north of Albany...Of course now I realize gradients will be slackening a bit tomorrow...

[brody]

Early look at KSEA NWS AFD 

 

9PM SEATTLE NWS AFD..... A MAJOR SNOW STORM WILL SLAM THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND LEAVE POINTS FROM OLM DRY, COLD AND WISHING FOR MORE OUT OF LIFE....GOODNIGHT

[GHweatherChris]

Early look at KSEA NWS AFD 

 

9PM SEATTLE NWS AFD..... A MAJOR SNOW STORM WILL SLAM THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND LEAVE POINTS FROM OLM DRY, COLD AND WISHING FOR MORE OUT OF LIFE....GOODNIGHT

Thats about all the need to say.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Whats the Canadian saying?

[epiceast]

Whats the Canadian saying?

too far south to be a serious contender

[brody]

Whats the Canadian saying?

Eh?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Whats the Canadian saying?

Eh.

[TT-SEA]

Whats the Canadian saying?

 

I am still waiting... its stuck at 12 hours,

[Snow]

OOZ GFS for tomorrow at 4pm. Can you believe it's only 19 hours away. The afternoon/evening commute is going to be a mess and the public doesn't know yet.

 

http://oi59.tinypic.com/123slf4.jpg

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Hard to imagine we go all weekend with no snow with so much happening so close. That dont happen to often when it rains.

[TT-SEA]

Hard to imagine we go all weekend with no snow with so much happening so close. That dont happen to often when it rains.

 

What is this 'rain' you speak of??

[SilverFallsAndrew]

OOZ GFS for tomorrow at 4pm. Can you believe it's only 19 hours away. The afternoon/evening commute is going to be a mess and the public doesn't know yet.

 

http://oi59.tinypic.com/123slf4.jpg

 

Ummmm...There are winter storm watches and warnings.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

What is this 'rain' you speak of??

when portland gets a big rain storm so do we most of the time. Most..

[brody]

Hard to imagine we go all weekend with no snow with so much happening so close. That dont happen to often when it rains.

With that much action so close Tim would say it might as well be Minnesota for all we care 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

What is this 'rain' you speak of??

Just thinking as though this was all rain and how it would play out.