Rubus Leucodermis Posted July 9, 2021 Report Share Posted July 9, 2021 52/70˚F for the day. Now 68. Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 9, 2021 Report Share Posted July 9, 2021 44 minutes ago, Phil said: Given what happened last month, I’d think anyone capable of empathy would be hoping for cool/wet weather. I would like some rain. Not that it matters. And this is another stupid preference related comment. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted July 9, 2021 Report Share Posted July 9, 2021 2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: I would like some rain. Not that it matters. And this is another stupid preference related comment. I live in a humid continental climate with DRY summers. It can rain in October. Preferences mean nothing. Nature does what she wants. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted July 9, 2021 Author Report Share Posted July 9, 2021 4 hours ago, Phil said: Only caveat here…we have descending easterly shear (oncoming -QBO) which is not necessarily favorable for a stout NPAC High (speaking statistically only..each year is unique). Still, Niña/-QBO winters tend to be zonal in the absence of a source for wave driving/stratospheric disruption. Though the years which do manage profuse wave driving are often top notch for mobile polar high production and cold loading. Sooooo..... February 2021? IIRC the LR seasonal EPS was spitting out some weaker solutions for the SPV this coming winter. One of the big blunders of this most recent season was how the PV at all sensible layers of the atmosphere was confined and strong. The only reason it ended the way it did was because of that SSW event in mid January. I like our chances this upcoming winter, and believe me when I say I am counting the days, just like many on this forum. 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted July 9, 2021 Report Share Posted July 9, 2021 Abnormally high amount of hypocrisy in here today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted July 9, 2021 Report Share Posted July 9, 2021 6 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: Sooooo..... February 2021? IIRC the LR seasonal EPS was spitting out some weaker solutions for the SPV this coming winter. One of the big blunders of this most recent season was how the PV at all sensible layers of the atmosphere was confined and strong. The only reason it ended the way it did was because of that SSW event in mid January. I like our chances this upcoming winter, and believe me when I say I am counting the days, just like many on this forum. I’m already seeing visions of massive ensemble improvement dancing in my head. 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted July 9, 2021 Report Share Posted July 9, 2021 91/44. The next 5 days will no doubt take my stretch to over 20 highs 90+. 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 9, 2021 Report Share Posted July 9, 2021 TRADES. 2 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted July 9, 2021 Report Share Posted July 9, 2021 72/51 Currently 65 and has clouded up again. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted July 9, 2021 Report Share Posted July 9, 2021 3 minutes ago, MossMan said: 72/51 Currently 65 and has clouded up again. 74/51 here today and clear still. Looks like the clouds spilling over into your area are from the thunderstorms over the north cascades. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 9, 2021 Report Share Posted July 9, 2021 I have been seeing 74° in the Kirkland area. I think that was about it for high temps on the eastside. Another really nice summer day. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted July 9, 2021 Report Share Posted July 9, 2021 78 here today. Might be the last sub-80 for awhile. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted July 9, 2021 Report Share Posted July 9, 2021 High of 80 at PDX, ended up not really underperforming at all. 0 departure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakeinthevalley Posted July 9, 2021 Report Share Posted July 9, 2021 4 hours ago, Omegaraptor said: https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=36.2466&lon=-116.817#.YOeIPBZlCEe Holy crap! NWS has 131°F forecast in Death Valley Meh. I hit 117.2f in Salem. Not impressed... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted July 9, 2021 Report Share Posted July 9, 2021 24 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: 78 here today. Might be the last sub-80 for awhile. Probably at least a week. Which this time of year is not unusual at all. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted July 9, 2021 Report Share Posted July 9, 2021 11 minutes ago, Front Ranger said: Probably at least a week. Which this time of year is not unusual at all. Shades of '55. 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 9, 2021 Report Share Posted July 9, 2021 While SEA was -3 on the day... OLM came in perfectly normal at 0. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 9, 2021 Report Share Posted July 9, 2021 The 00Z GFS does not look like it wants to bring back the late week trough either. 00Z run yesterday on top and new 00Z run on the bottom for late next week... Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 9, 2021 Report Share Posted July 9, 2021 38 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: Shades of '55. Someone on here said that the old saying that summer begins on July 5th would flipped around this year and be completely opposite with summer ending on July 5th. That is not really working out well. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 9, 2021 Report Share Posted July 9, 2021 25 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: The 00Z GFS does not look like it wants to bring back the late week trough either. 00Z run yesterday on top and new 00Z run on the bottom for late next week... Hilarious no matter how the pattern changes upstream, I end up under a ridge. Always. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 9, 2021 Report Share Posted July 9, 2021 25 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Someone on here said that the old saying that summer begins on July 5th would flipped around this year and be completely opposite with summer ending on July 5th. That is not really working out well. I hope this past week has taught you how to properly interpret an ensemble mean. Those warm 850mb temps really translated to the surface. I say this because the pattern in the long range is structurally favorable for continued marine intrusion (followed by actual troughing later). Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 9, 2021 Report Share Posted July 9, 2021 Well, the GGEM improved. Technically it scores higher than the GFS, so.. 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 9, 2021 Report Share Posted July 9, 2021 15 minutes ago, Phil said: I hope this past week has taught you how to properly interpret an ensemble mean. Those warm 850mb temps really translated to the surface. I say this because the pattern in the long range is structurally favorable for continued marine intrusion (followed by actual troughing later). What? First of all... your point was that the mean showed warm 850mb temps but that was skewed by some very warm members and most members were cold. You literally said that. Which could be true... but its often not and its used as a rationalization by some when desperate. Particularly in the winter. Secondly... this past week has been pretty normal in terms of the marine layer cloud coverage. The highs out here for the last 7 days have been 79, 84, 82, 77, 84, 76, and 74. And that averages out to warmer than normal. A normal marine layer week usually ends up cooler than normal. SEA has been +1 over the last week including today. And now the marine influence will be less going forward. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted July 9, 2021 Report Share Posted July 9, 2021 43 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: While SEA was -3 on the day... OLM came in perfectly normal at 0. 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 9, 2021 Report Share Posted July 9, 2021 5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: First of all... your point was that the mean showed warm 850mb temps but that was skewed by some very warm members and most members were cold. You literally said that. Which could be true... but its often not and its used a rationalization by some when desperate. Particularly in the winter. That wasn’t my point. At least not my entire point. I would know since it came from my brain. And the marine influence looks to return in about 6 days (and do so more profusely compared to this week). That 4CH retrogrades very quickly on most guidance. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 9, 2021 Report Share Posted July 9, 2021 I will say that I did not account for a stronger marine influence since late last week on a few days and it was cooler than I expected despite being warmer than normal overall. But Saturday, Sunday, and Tuesday were straight up warm. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted July 9, 2021 Report Share Posted July 9, 2021 Looks like this area might have a shot at the upper 40s tonight. That would feel downright invigorating right now. 1 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 9, 2021 Report Share Posted July 9, 2021 2 minutes ago, Phil said: That wasn’t my point. At least not my entire point. I would know since it came from my brain. And the marine influence looks to return in about 6 days. That 4CH retrogrades very quickly. Maybe... but I don't think you should try and guess at our marine inversions. They can be very tricky. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted July 9, 2021 Report Share Posted July 9, 2021 4 minutes ago, Phil said: That wasn’t my point. At least not my entire point. I would know since it came from my brain. And the marine influence looks to return in about 6 days (and do so more profusely compared to this week). That 4CH retrogrades very quickly on most guidance. Yeah...the onshore flow is going to be pretty consistent. It never really goes away other than becoming more of a NW wind onshore flow. NW is what brings the really good upwelling along the coast. BTW...that was a good call on my part talking about the STTs falling along the coast after they spiked a little bit back. But I'm never right you know. The second paragraph was not directed at you. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 9, 2021 Report Share Posted July 9, 2021 4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Maybe... but I don't think you should try and guess at our marine inversions. They can be very tricky. When it shows up at 850mb, that’s usually indicative of some kind of marine influence in the boundary layer. And I know how to read a sounding. Whether said modeled soundings are accurate is another story. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted July 9, 2021 Report Share Posted July 9, 2021 21 minutes ago, Phil said: Well, the GGEM improved. Technically it scores higher than the GFS, so.. It's pretty obvious the trough is still on the table. We'll just have to wait and see. Some will take this to mean I'm saying we will freeze our our arses off in a week or so. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 9, 2021 Report Share Posted July 9, 2021 7 minutes ago, Phil said: And the marine influence looks to return in about 6 days (and do so more profusely compared to this week). That 4CH retrogrades very quickly on most guidance. You really don't understand. The best way to get cold days in the summer is with stratiform rain or with a strong inversion and low clouds all day. Cold 850mb temps can weaken the inversion with more sunshine and we can end up close to normal. There is absolutely no way you can predict a strong inversion locking in at a week out... but the pattern on the ECMWF and GFS don't show anything like what you are describing after day 6. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 9, 2021 Report Share Posted July 9, 2021 Just for the fun... here is the 12Z ECMWF for next Saturday. No marine layer at all... not even on the coast. Not saying its guaranteed to be right. But the ECMWF is by far the best tool we have for predicting marine layer clouds and it does not show the marine layer increasing "profusely" more than what we had over the last week. That is just a false statement. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 9, 2021 Report Share Posted July 9, 2021 1 minute ago, TT-SEA said: You really don't understand. The best way to get cold days in the summer is with stratiform rain or with a strong inversion and low clouds all day. Cold 850mb temps can weaken the inversion with more sunshine and we can end up close to normal. There is absolutely no way you can predict a strong inversion locking in at a week out... but the pattern on the ECMWF and GFS don't show anything like what you are describing after day 6. Could be. We’ll see. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted July 9, 2021 Report Share Posted July 9, 2021 Kind of interesting to look at the average max for the first 8 days of July. Only 76.5 degrees. I don't think many expected anything close to that low when we were looking at that period in late June. Just sayin. I hate to have to point this out, but I'm sick of being told I'm crazy. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 9, 2021 Report Share Posted July 9, 2021 8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Yeah...the onshore flow is going to be pretty consistent. It never really goes away other than becoming more of a NW wind onshore flow. NW is what brings the really good upwelling along the coast. Are you saying we won't have offshore flow? Seems pretty obvious. Onshore flow is basically a permanent feature all summer... even when its warm. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted July 9, 2021 Report Share Posted July 9, 2021 2 hours ago, Phil said: TRADES. ENSO SSTs have already been falling for a few days in response to this. Looking good. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 9, 2021 Report Share Posted July 9, 2021 20 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Kind of interesting to look at the average max for the first 8 days of July. Only 76.5 degrees. I don't think many expected anything close to that low when we were looking at that period in late June. Just sayin. I hate to have to point this out, but I'm sick of being told I'm crazy. Dude... you were touting some majestic cold troughs. For the end of June... for the holiday weekend... for the first week of July and the second week of July. Absolutely none of that happened. The marine layer was more substantial than most people anticipated... but that is not why people are calling you out. It was funny on Monday night you were talking about all this amazing cold air coming inland from the coast and the next day it was 82 in Seattle. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 9, 2021 Report Share Posted July 9, 2021 9 minutes ago, Phil said: Could be. We’ll see. The 12Z EPS actually looked similar late next week... so maybe. But the models might continue to back off on the troughing as well. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted July 9, 2021 Report Share Posted July 9, 2021 Heat builds back in tomorrow. Most locations will be around 90 and many spots west of the Cascades could be seeing 5-6 90+ days in a row. Pretty incredible how sustained the heat has been. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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