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July 2021 PNW Weather Discussion


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We are very fortunate so far with the smokes. Have to see how long this’ll last, there’s really no offshore flow to be seen for the foreseeable future so it will continue to keep the smoke east of the Cascades. 

 

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25 minutes ago, Cloud said:

We are very fortunate so far with the smokes. Have to see how long this’ll last, there’s really no offshore flow to be seen for the foreseeable future so it will continue to keep the smoke east of the Cascades. 

 

Sky is beautiful here!  Interesting little cloud formation too...

20210718_133052.jpg

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Sky is beautiful here!  Interesting little cloud formation too...

20210718_133052.jpg

Looks busy. Though I'm sure by your telling the line only took about 5 minutes. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Spent the past few days on the Central Oregon Coast. Sunny all 3 days. Highs hit about 70 yesterday right off the beach. That big marine push never materialized. SLE hit 81 and 82 on the coolest days. 

Temps to remain around average the next 7 days. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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8 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

That is exactly how I feel about winter in the middle of January! 

This summer has morphed into being very pleasant.   We have the best weather in the country now.   I hope it takes its sweet time.  :)

Every cloud that exists without your permission fuels my soul.

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15 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looks busy. Though I'm sure by your telling the line only took about 5 minutes. 

Honestly... not even 5 minutes.     Super easy.   People are really efficient at the launch here.  

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30 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Every cloud that exists without your permission fuels my soul.

Band of cool-looking high clouds now... interestingly the ECMWF has been showing this in that exact spot this afternoon for like 5 days now.  I have noticed it on every run.   

20210718_151005.jpg

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Nice day.  I think we peaked in temperature here today. It hit 69F and is now 68F.  And as advised, I checked ten miles inland to see what a non-sea-level temp is; 75F.

Have a stupendous Sunday everyone. 

Look what I found out of pure luck,  A pre-production, 2022 Jeep Grand Wagoneer.  These aren't for sale until autumn.  It was being tested alongside an Escalade, and a Navigator.  Everyone was looking at the Grand Wagoneer and lots of thumbs up by people at the parks today.  Beautiful day to test drive those luxury SUVs.   I would like to think these test-drivers and journalists aren't from this area and they are seeing the PNW in it's perfect state.  Beautiful views of the Cascade's and Olympics for them to get some real glamour shots of these vehicles.

ajmccusajeepgrandwagoneerwhite22newtestdrive.jpg

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9 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

Nice day.  I think we peaked in temperature here today. It hit 69F and is now 68F.  And as advised, I checked ten miles inland to see what a non-sea-level temp is; 75F.

Have a stupendous Sunday everyone. 

Look what I found out of pure luck,  A pre-production, 2022 Jeep Grand Wagoneer.  These aren't for sale until autumn.  It was being tested alongside an Escalade, and a Navigator.  Everyone was looking at the Grand Wagoneer and lots of thumbs up by people at the parks today.  Beautiful day to test drive those luxury SUVs.   I would like to think these test-drivers and journalists aren't from this area and they are seeing the PNW in it's perfect state.  Beautiful views of the Cascade's and Olympics for them to get some real glamour shots of these vehicles.

ajmccusajeepgrandwagoneerwhite22newtestdrive.jpg

Much warmer here... and a very light wind making it feel even warmer.  Not sure about 10 miles inland... but we are only 15 miles from downtown Seattle and it's 80 degrees.    Perfect PNW summer weather.

 

Screenshot_20210718-152051_Google.jpg

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Really nice weather. If we weren't coming off the driest spring on record and hottest June/temps of all time, this would be enjoyable. As is all we have are another 60 days or so of torture. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Band of cool-looking high clouds now... interestingly the ECMWF has been showing this in that exact spot this afternoon for like 5 days now.  I have noticed it on every run.   

20210718_151005.jpg

They are fascinating!!!

5D00CADE-6525-4EC9-B53C-7045DF1B7030.jpeg

C3F867EB-844C-43AA-8084-D64E260107B6.jpeg

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15 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Absolutely beautiful day out on Point Ruston in Tacoma. Even saw some seals poking their head out of the water!

20210718_134443.jpg

20210718_134349.jpg

Orca came down along Maury island southbound then around the south tip of Vashon and on up north along the Colvos passage earlier today (11:30-12:30).  I relaxed in the sun at Browns Point across the way and watched them with binoculars.  Great way to spend part of the day!!! 
 

By the way love Point Ruston!!! 

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23 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

18z is absolutely gorgeous. Highs 65-80 and lows 50-60 with lots of marine layers. Wish it could be region-wide

 

gfs-deterministic-KSEA-daily_tmin_tmax-6631200.png

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Another 90-burger!

8EF2D747-1AC9-45B0-9C05-B5855730D300.webp

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 50 (Most recent: Apr 14, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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2 hours ago, Jginmartini said:

It was so gross in Montana with all the smoke and temperature pushing 96*  in locations.   Caught a break Wyoming though (Devils Tower area).  
Got to enjoy Close Encounters in the KOA theater smoke free 🛸
 

Back home and currently 79*

A8046475-D5B8-46C6-8295-5E29E0521C94.jpeg

4545C168-47CE-43F9-B79A-E1CEB1E64094.jpeg

Expecting the worst through Montana in 12 days.     It will be par for the course for us... always seems to be that way on our summer trip.

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

 

BB44B61A-8C5B-44C4-8A2F-44586A7BD619.png

Warmer than I thought... and it was 3 degrees too cold today.    

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Warmer than I thought... and it was 3 degrees too cold today.    

GFS is probably too warm, verbatim. Euro maybe a tad cool.

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2 minutes ago, Phil said:

GFS is probably too warm, verbatim. Euro maybe a tad cool.

Usually the way it goes.

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Just now, Cloud said:

62 on the 28th is what? 11am?

Yes... its not the high.   Seems like we need to mention that every time.  

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Yes... its not the high.   Seems like we need to mention that every time.  

It’s still a spectacular run! It may be a bit too cool, so I’ll take anywhere between this and the GFS. Lovely weather

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8 minutes ago, Cloud said:

It’s still a spectacular run! It may be a bit too cool, so I’ll take anywhere between this and the GFS. Lovely weather

Today could not have been nicer... I would not have wanted it 1 degree warmer or 1 degree cooler.   😀

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12 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Today could not have been nicer... I would not have wanted it 1 degree warmer or 1 degree cooler.   😀

At home I avoided 80 with a high of 79 so it’s now 5 straight days of sub-80 weather. Can’t complain! 

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13 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Wow, you have 5 more 90+ days than EUG.

EUG hit 90 on several of their 5 min obs after 5pm. We will wait and see, but the airport may have officially hit it today. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Looks like EUG officially hit 89. 88/53 at SLE for a +1 departure. Those 1991-2020 climatic norms are softening the blow!

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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27 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

As we all know, the GFS has Tim-biased temps.

SEA is not hitting 88 tomorrow.

Apparently it showed highs in the 60s.    I was just posting it in response to that.   I know it has a warm bias.   Although it's probably always in the 60s on the water of the Puget Sound.

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Apparently we have been going through some really cold wet summer troughing recently according to someone who has disappeared from the forum. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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21 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looks like EUG officially hit 89. 88/53 at SLE for a +1 departure. Those 1991-2020 climatic norms are softening the blow!

Low temps are helping, as expected. OLM hit 47 this morning.

A forum for the end of the world.

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As advertised... this pattern is effective at completely wiping out the marine layer even on the coast.      But it will shift east enough by Tuesday and Wednesday to bring back the marine layer particularly in the central Sound area.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-6620400.png

COD-GOES-West-subregional-Pac_NW.02.20210719.031617-over=map-bars=.gif

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Tuesday and Wednesday look very similar to last Thursday... sunny on the coast but low clouds hanging on most of the day right over King County. 

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-total_cloud-6904800.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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37 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Apparently we have been going through some really cold wet summer troughing recently according to someone who has disappeared from the forum. 

I know right. It was a rain/snow mix here on Saturday morning. 🥶

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To be fair to Jim…I don’t think he mentioned anything about it being wet. I think he was forecasting cool and dry overall. 
 Unless…you’re talking about Phil? He’s been around lately. 

Monthly rainfall-0.00”

Warm season rainfall-5.26”

+80s-27

+85s-9

+90s-3

+100s-2

Highest temp-106

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14 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

To be fair to Jim…I don’t think he mentioned anything about it being wet. I think he was forecasting cool and dry overall. 
 Unless…you’re talking about Phil? He’s been around lately. 

Never called for wet weather. So that rules me out as a suspect.

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3 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Expecting the worst through Montana in 12 days.     It will be par for the course for us... always seems to be that way on our summer trip.

Smoke hasn’t actually been that bad except for that day that he drove through. Heat was brutal today though. 99 in town and 95 in my backyard. Hottest temps since August 2018.

Expecting some storms tomorrow and even some actual stratiform rain on Tuesday with much more reasonable temps so things will likely be improving next week. Signs of a pattern change around day 10 as well to more of a NW flow pattern which would really help push the smoke out.

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Cold Season 2020/21:

Total snowfall: 140.0"

Highest daily snowfall: 12.0"

Highest snow depth: 20.0"

Coldest high: -7.0º

Coldest low: -21º

Number of subzero days: 12

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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