Grizzcoat Posted November 12, 2021 Report Share Posted November 12, 2021 Just two yeas ago on this day DSM recorded it's 3rd earliest below zero occurrence with a -1F. Only the epic cold blast behind the Halloween Blizzard of 1991 has an earlier occurrence. It caught me off guard as I was checking the climo. Fresh 3" of snow and clear skies.... 4 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 12, 2021 Author Report Share Posted November 12, 2021 It's a surprise to see LOT with the "Heavy Snow" wording in my grid this morning...a sign of things to come down the road. Man, we have seen some dynamic systems this autumn and I'm looking forward to seeing my first flakes later today! 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 12, 2021 Report Share Posted November 12, 2021 Love the Metars coming out here-- almost certain Blizzard conditions in Sioux Lookout, the -SN carried by the observer doesn't met METAR specs (1/2 mile Vis or less in Snow should be moderate snow (SN) - but it's not here, hence the wind causing the limits in vis. That BLSN was reported in both is likely not due to automated sensors. Vertical Vis in Sioux Lookout is a dead give a way. FTR-Vertical Visibility - The distance an observer can see vertically into an undefined ceiling, or the height corresponding to the top of a ceiling light projector beam, or the height at which a ceiling balloon disappears during the presence of an indefinite ceiling. 3 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 12, 2021 Author Report Share Posted November 12, 2021 Rise n Shine....we are going to finish off this work week looking and feeling like Winter has arrived for many of us across the MW/GL's. It'll be interesting to see how strong these instability snow showers develop this afternoon as the cold ULL trough rotates through right when we get peak intensity during the daytime hours. Congrats to @james1976 for nature delivering a nice B Day gift for ya! On another note, last night's 0z Euro suggesting the seasons coldest air of the season to begin sliding down south out of Canada into the Upper MW by Day 9/10...the expansive snow cover that is to develop will certainly aid in keep natures freezer in tact. I'm encouraged to see those snow holes being filled, unlike in years of the past. @FAR_Weather...daytime highs in the 10's???? Novembrrrr chill is on the way and right on my target period of post Nov 20th. Mind you, the models had zero cold during this period but have started to flip colder. This is also a clue to me of this year's LRC cycle length. I'll dive into more of this during the weekend but I think I got a good idea of the cycle length. I want to see a few more days of model runs to hone in on it. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 12, 2021 Report Share Posted November 12, 2021 ^^-- yep near -40F below the avg's in the Prairie Provinces at the time Tom talks about. Above Avg temps for NOV for many locations are going to be wiped away in the next 10 days to even or even below. 2 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 12, 2021 Author Report Share Posted November 12, 2021 0z EPS showing a reversal in temps over North America by Day 10....caused by what appears to be a split in the Polar Vortices....on Black Wednesday, taking a gander at the Northern Hemispheres 500mg pattern, we have developed the North American Vortex. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted November 12, 2021 Report Share Posted November 12, 2021 I'm seeing the first light snow of the season early this morning. 3 2 3 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 12, 2021 Report Share Posted November 12, 2021 2 hours ago, Tom said: 0z EPS showing a reversal in temps over North America by Day 10....caused by what appears to be a split in the Polar Vortices....on Black Wednesday, taking a gander at the Northern Hemispheres 500mg pattern, we have developed the North American Vortex. With a bare ground? Yeah, no thanks. Disgusting. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted November 12, 2021 Report Share Posted November 12, 2021 They really backed off on LES for my area. Too warm still. Oh well, maybe the clipper will drop an inch or two. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted November 12, 2021 Report Share Posted November 12, 2021 Here at my house I recorded a total of 0.24" of rain yesterday and overnight. With some clearing it dropped down to 37 here and 36 at GRR before the clouds moved back in. At this time it is mostly cloudy and 39 here. Yesterdays wind did a number on the leaves on the trees in my area and while the Oak still have a lot of leaves on them the other trees are either bare or still have a few clinging to them. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted November 12, 2021 Report Share Posted November 12, 2021 My grids keep getting warmer for Tuesday. Now up to 67 for the forecast high. 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted November 12, 2021 Report Share Posted November 12, 2021 Had some sleet pellets earlier but looks like has switched over to a few flurries. The best part is the strong wind is taking off all my leaves on my tree in the front yard AND blowing them down the street so no raking for me! 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted November 12, 2021 Report Share Posted November 12, 2021 Just saw my first snowflakes* of the season this morning! (*the weather kind) 2 Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted November 12, 2021 Report Share Posted November 12, 2021 6 hours ago, Grizzcoat said: ^^-- yep near -40F below the avg's in the Prairie Provinces at the time Tom talks about. Above Avg temps for NOV for many locations are going to be wiped away in the next 10 days to even or even below. That's funny bc when I go through the 0Z maps for at least my location, it shows the average of the temps for the next 10 days comes out to .8 degrees above average. Now that's less than the 4.2 degrees above average we've been the first 11 days of the month, but it's not wiping it out or putting us below average. In fact we're still going to average above average for the next 10 days if you take the brutally cold Euro. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted November 12, 2021 Report Share Posted November 12, 2021 3 minutes ago, mlgamer said: Just saw my first snowflakes* of the season this morning! (*the weather kind) not the ones freaking out and pissed off at Big Bird? 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 12, 2021 Author Report Share Posted November 12, 2021 IMG_1259.MP4 4 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted November 12, 2021 Report Share Posted November 12, 2021 Been getting on and off heavy rain, hail and some snow mixed in. It is not a nice day outside at this time. With this mix it is now 37. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted November 12, 2021 Report Share Posted November 12, 2021 Fatties in Nebraska City 20211112_133418.mp4 4 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 12, 2021 Report Share Posted November 12, 2021 Euro control Turkey Day morning-- and Black Friday morning 2 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted November 12, 2021 Report Share Posted November 12, 2021 Ripping fat flakes. Car and grass is turning white. Roads are slushy. 33 degrees. Lot of melting though. Snowing harder than all of last year. 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 12, 2021 Report Share Posted November 12, 2021 Today's "day" high was 34F at DSM (was 37F just after midnight). Avg first 34F or lower high is 11/14. A list of recents- 3 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted November 12, 2021 Report Share Posted November 12, 2021 24 minutes ago, tStacsh said: Ripping fat flakes. Car and grass is turning white. Roads are slushy. 33 degrees. Lot of melting though. Snowing harder than all of last year. IMG_6129.MOV 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 13, 2021 Report Share Posted November 13, 2021 1 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 13, 2021 Author Report Share Posted November 13, 2021 Let's see if someone up north can log their first sub zero night of the season with fresh snow OTG...potent cold shot later next weekend... 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted November 13, 2021 Report Share Posted November 13, 2021 I am not sure how much snow fell but at 8 AM I have 2" on the ground. If the temperatures had been about 5° Colder yesterday and last night we would have had a real big time snowstorm as there were times of heavy snow and even several rumbles of thunder. I will post the total water content of yesterdays rain and snow as soon as the snow at the top of my funnel melts so far there is a total of 0.65" in the gauge tube. At this time there is a light mist falling and the current temperature here is 33. 4 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 13, 2021 Report Share Posted November 13, 2021 Good morning from Navarre, Florida, I have a friend getting married today so I got to come back to the Florida panhandle. The weather here is fantastic 73/54. I hate that I'm missing some wintery weather back home, I here there are some scattered snow showers in the forecast with a high of 40. Thanksgiving and the following days look exciting in the long range, hopefully the models start to figure some things out over the weekend. 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted November 13, 2021 Report Share Posted November 13, 2021 It took a while but the snow that collected at the top of my rain gauge has now melted (inside of the house) and the numbers are 1. Snow on the ground at observation time 2" now get this total rain and melted snow fall for yesterday and overnight 0.96" So you can just guess how much snow would have fallen if it was 1. It was all snow. 2. it was about 5 degrees colder Bottom line the areas north and north west of Grand Rapids missed a major snow storm by several degrees 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted November 13, 2021 Report Share Posted November 13, 2021 48 minutes ago, westMJim said: I am not sure how much snow fell but at 8 AM I have 2" on the ground. If the temperatures had been about 5° Colder yesterday and last night we would have had a real big time snowstorm as there were times of heavy snow and even several rumbles of thunder. I will post the total water content of yesterdays rain and snow as soon as the snow at the top of my funnel melts so far there is a total of 0.65" in the gauge tube. At this time there is a light mist falling and the current temperature here is 33. It took a while but here at my house the total of rain and snow for yesterday and overnight was 0.96" 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 13, 2021 Report Share Posted November 13, 2021 Skies are overcast in mby w temps in the 30s. First "Snow" of the season is on the way for SMI. It also remains BN tempwise, except for one day next week, when readings approach the mid to upper 50s, then, temps drop once again. Big drop expected the week after, along w storminess. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 13, 2021 Report Share Posted November 13, 2021 54 minutes ago, Clinton said: Good morning from Navarre, Florida, I have a friend getting married today so I got to come back to the Florida panhandle. The weather here is fantastic 73/54. I hate that I'm missing some wintery weather back home, I here there are some scattered snow showers in the forecast with a high of 40. Thanksgiving and the following days look exciting in the long range, hopefully the models start to figure some things out over the weekend. Have fun amigo and go for a swim since you are there. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 13, 2021 Author Report Share Posted November 13, 2021 3 hours ago, Clinton said: Good morning from Navarre, Florida, I have a friend getting married today so I got to come back to the Florida panhandle. The weather here is fantastic 73/54. I hate that I'm missing some wintery weather back home, I here there are some scattered snow showers in the forecast with a high of 40. Thanksgiving and the following days look exciting in the long range, hopefully the models start to figure some things out over the weekend. Have fun in the sunshine state! I, to, traveled this morning and flew to The Valley of the Sun! 71F and sunny with 80’s all weekend into next week. Nothing but blue skies and perfect temps and calm conditions here through Thanksgiving. Enjoy the trip! We were cruising at 40,000 ft at 570 mph. Got here in record time on a westerly trip to AZ in just 3 hours! These new Dreamliner's are amazing planes to fly. Wow, I was impressed. This is the first time that American Airlines used this aircraft to my knowledge on flights to AZ. I think it’s to maximize passenger capacity bc of the lack of pilots? Snow bird season has begun…and holidays! IMG_1264.MP4 IMG_1271.MP4 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted November 13, 2021 Report Share Posted November 13, 2021 2 hours ago, someweatherdude said: Latest GFS has things looking pretty average around here for the foreseeable future ... if it's correct. I guess that's better than the blowtorch that was October (and November 2020). Hopefully we can eek out a measurable snow by the end of the month. Same with the Euro. November is going to be another flop too. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted November 13, 2021 Report Share Posted November 13, 2021 October last year was actually 2-4 degrees below average for most of the region. November was definitely a mess though. Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 14, 2021 Report Share Posted November 14, 2021 I know, I know, we're a whopping 3 days past the anniversary of the storm and tragic ending. But, do yourself a favor and catch this new docu-film. This is better than anything I remember seeing on the event, and prolly as good or better than a (good) History channel episode. 4 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 14, 2021 Report Share Posted November 14, 2021 8 hours ago, someweatherdude said: Latest GFS has things looking pretty average around here for the foreseeable future ... if it's correct. I guess that's better than the blowtorch that was October (and November 2020). Hopefully we can eek out a measurable snow by the end of the month. Whether this ends up being accurate or not, I've learned over the years here that it's never a good sign when Major Tom goes west. Especially for me since I'm in the same general storm track-way as Chi-town. The rare exception is when a clipper comes in from the NW and just misses his backyard but gets SMI. Kinda like tomorrow's event, and that biggie back in Dec of 2017 that gave this region 8-12" 1 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted November 14, 2021 Report Share Posted November 14, 2021 Bumped up to a high of 70 now in my grids! Short lived warmth before it falls back into the mid 40s on Wednesday 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 14, 2021 Report Share Posted November 14, 2021 41 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said: Bumped up to a high of 70 now in my grids! Short lived warmth before it falls back into the mid 40s on Wednesday Need a little 1911 action. The 11-11-11 storm 110 yrs ago was a wild one. Generating record warm high temps on the front end, and record low high temps on the backside. Nothing like a little 60+ degree flip in 24 hrs in the S. Plains region. In SMI, it is notorious for an event that (ridiculously) added two more "11's" when a twister destroyed a small community west of my home town at exactly 11:11pm. Storm system was crazy with blizzard, F4 twister and many smaller ones, and some backside LES snows as well as eye-popping temperature plummets in the nations mid-section. Here's the 8 am surface maps for the 11th and 12th. And then, just two years after, the Great White Hurricane of 1913 featured three separate storms combining over a 5 day period in the GL's wreaking havoc of immense proportions. Here's a map of how the first merger took place. The monster tho, came about later in Jan of '78 fashion on the eastern lakes. Wx like this would be awesome to experience. 5 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 14, 2021 Report Share Posted November 14, 2021 I just started clicking on my wx model links due to the clipper. LR maps are a crap-shoot in mid-winter, let alone this early when climo is kinda, well, hostile. But apparently the GFS recently flashed a system just before Thanksgiving that reminds me of how models were portraying the 11-26-18 storm 3 years ago. That system was a let-down as the models were spitting out like 9-14" for Marshall, but the WAA over-performed (an early season curse) and a lot of qpf fell before we finally went over to snow. Would love to see this gain some traction: 2 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OttumwaSnomow Posted November 14, 2021 Report Share Posted November 14, 2021 44 minutes ago, jaster220 said: I just started clicking on my wx model links due to the clipper. LR maps are a crap-shoot in mid-winter, let alone this early when climo is kinda, well, hostile. But apparently the GFS recently flashed a system just before Thanksgiving that reminds me of how models were portraying the 11-26-18 storm 3 years ago. That system was a let-down as the models were spitting out like 9-14" for Marshall, but the WAA over-performed (an early season curse) and a lot of qpf fell before we finally went over to snow. Would love to see this gain some traction: Spots near Oskaloosa IA had 23 inches that storm nov 2018, I believe 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 14, 2021 Report Share Posted November 14, 2021 Great share Jaster on the Fitz!!! Great piece. I've seen other documentaries on it and that was one of the best. Most of the others I have seen don't agree with the "official" report. Most seem to think it was thrust into the bottom (shoal) by a large wave and split apart. Whatever the cause, it happened extremely fast. Sinking imo would at least allow a mayday call. 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.