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November 2021 Observations and Discussion


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KC may be looking at it's first freeze over the next few nights.  But it'll be close.  If we don't hit it, we'll have to wait probably another week for our next shot.  Average around here is October 28th (although several nearby locations are before that).  Going back to 1950, the latest I can find is November 19th.  90% of the time, it occurs by November 10th.  

Note: A local reporting station in the suburb of Prairie Village hit 31.9 this morning, but that's not official.  

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59 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

I would pay good money for a good snowstorm (All snow, temp 28 or under 8+ inches)  or long duration bitter cold LES event this year.    

This weeks pattern is a bonafide Long Duration LES event that should cycle a few times…hopefully you guys in the snow belts get to see several to develop in the winter.

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26º here this morning.  The airport dropped to 22º.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Nice to read everyone experiencing the change in the weather.  
Texas has never been known for iits Fall, but today is one of those days that signal the change.   
 

The weather is very quiet and a heavy dark overcast.  This makes the yellow on the tips of the trees brighter.  We’re at 54* this morning and they expect a light frost tonight at 38-39*.  Having experienced this many times the temps are slowly changing and we’ll see our first freeze soon.  
 

Rain tonight and tomorrow all day.  A good slow soaker. That cold rain should just do the trick!   

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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42 minutes ago, someweatherdude said:

KC may be looking at it's first freeze over the next few nights.  But it'll be close.  If we don't hit it, we'll have to wait probably another week for our next shot.  Average around here is October 28th (although several nearby locations are before that).  Going back to 1950, the latest I can find is November 19th.  90% of the time, it occurs by November 10th.  

Note: A local reporting station in the suburb of Prairie Village hit 31.9 this morning, but that's not official.  

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Euro EPS control has two systems that bear watching for wintry precip. The first is in the 10-11 day period and it currently shows this for accumulating snowfall --

image.thumb.png.185f4f25129c953e4ae9df329788bd38.pngThe 2nd is at the end of the run - day 15 and shows this for 24 hr totals -(I understand it probably will not transpire like this, likely further N if anything, but it's fun going back into winter tracking mode after 8 months off). image.thumb.png.4d3117f842d397c2df131699d6ef53f5.png

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Now that was a hard freeze. All the way down to 22.0 this morning IMBY.

All the flowers etc are wilted/droopy and a majority of the trees are raining leaves even though there's no wind. Our neighbor's 40 foot tall Maple looks like it could drop it's entire load of leaves just today with how fast they're coming down.

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2 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

I always get interested when I see a low in SE Colorado.  

For SMI, that would be a SLP over Indy or just north. Even if it goes due N from there, that translates to "bomb storm" and brings with it the likelyhood of high winds, backside snows, and other fun-n-games for The Mitt.

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 7.7"  Largest Storm: 4.2" (11/27)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" 

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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1 hour ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Now that was a hard freeze. All the way down to 22.0 this morning IMBY.

All the flowers etc are wilted/droopy and a majority of the trees are raining leaves even though there's no wind. Our neighbor's 40 foot tall Maple looks like it could drop it's entire load of leaves just today with how fast they're coming down.

Had that here in 2017 iirc

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 7.7"  Largest Storm: 4.2" (11/27)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" 

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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1 minute ago, Clinton said:

12z GFS staying with a big one @FAR_Weather

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_37.png

KFAR special? Tis the season for west cutters. Remains to be seen if any "future blocking" could shift the nature of these mid-Nov systems. Was it last Feb's biggie that began on models as an MSP special but trended to a DTW to CLE special?

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 7.7"  Largest Storm: 4.2" (11/27)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" 

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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4 minutes ago, james1976 said:

That would be an awesome bday gift for me if it tracked further south!

I knew it was your B Day!  Haha, yup...this would be the start of an interesting middle part of November.  

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6 hours ago, Tom said:

This weeks pattern is a bonafide Long Duration LES event that should cycle a few times…hopefully you guys in the snow belts get to see several to develop in the winter.

Yep, check out the parade of pin-wheeling troughs over The Mitt

 

2021-11-02 12pm Surf.jpg

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 7.7"  Largest Storm: 4.2" (11/27)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" 

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Marshall may well have had 1st (legit) flakes this pm per this obs

image.png.1575cebb096d5a948e52c24816f6f6b2.png

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 7.7"  Largest Storm: 4.2" (11/27)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" 

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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First one of the year! 

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
710 PM CDT Tue Nov 2 2021

WIZ005-030815-
/O.NEW.KGRB.WW.Y.0011.211103T0100Z-211103T1500Z/
Vilas-
Including the cities of Eagle River and Lac Du Flambeau
710 PM CDT Tue Nov 2 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CDT WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow showers expected. 2 to 5 inches possible
  over the northeast half of Vilas county with less elsewhere.

* WHERE...Vilas County.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM CDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the Wednesday morning commute.

 

 

AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
719 PM CDT Tue Nov 2 2021

New Information added to update section

.UPDATE...
Issued at 719 PM CDT Tue Nov 2 2021

Decided to issue a Winter Weather Advisory for Vilas county
for 2 to 5 inches of lake effect snow.

Mesoscale models suggest that winds at 850 and 925 mb will veer
more to the north this evening creating more favorable conditions
as cold northwest winds blow over a longer stretch of Lake
Superior waters. Duluth and Marquette radar have returns at more
than 8000 ft above the ground and forecast sounding suggest that
cloud tops of 10,000` are possible. This should produce periods of
at least moderate snow in Vilas county tonight. It should
diminish Wednesday morning.
&&

 

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The U.P. got their first taste of LES and they sure added up near MQT...this map shows 8-12" on the east side of the U.P...

 

1.png

 

While on the topic of snow, Alaska has been inundated by Ol' Man Winters early grip yet again this year....massive amounts of snow at a record setting pace near Homer/Valdez area.  I'm sure we'll see some snowy scenes on the show "Alaska The Last Frontier" come spring time next year when the new episodes are released.

https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news/alaskans-brace-for-a-record-12-feet-of-snow-in-two-days

 

Oh, ya...about that Vet's day storm....0z Euro for eye candy...Dakota's special...

2.png

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0z EPS snow mean not shying away from spreading the "white gold" from north to south...#blocking 

1.gif

 

Enjoy the Indian Summer wx thats on tap for this weekend, bc we are about to get a real taste of winter post Vet's Day.  All the models are locking in on a colder/wintry pattern for the eastern CONUS for the 2nd half of November.  I sure as heck am going to finish up all my chores outdoors this weekend.  It'll feel real nice with sunny skies and low 60's in the forecast.  The fall colors are exploding in my neighborhood and actually rather vibrant.  Great wx to see the last of the colors before the wind/storm later next week.

 

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9 minutes ago, Clinton said:

This morning I have my first frost and freeze of the season.  Skies cleared overnight and the temp has dropped to 28.

Nice to have that combo both happen at the same time!  Coldest morning of the season here as well (28F).

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1 hour ago, Clinton said:

The GFS has been trending further east.  6z GFS with a Vetrans Day bomb.

prateptype_cat.us_mw.png

I skimmed through the EPS/GEFS members and there are a few in the bunch that support this idea.

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4 minutes ago, Tom said:

I skimmed through the EPS/GEFS members and there are a few in the bunch that support this idea.

The air behind this system is cold.  We could go from 20 degrees above normal ahead of the storm to 20 degrees below normal behind it.

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Eastern Iowa has outperformed the forecast this morning.  It has dropped down to 21º here in the city.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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First off I had the first snow fall of the season it mostly melted on contact. There was a total of 0.04" of rain and melted snow here overnight. While it was the coldest night of this fall season so far it was still warmer here than at the airport. The low here was 29 while at the airport they reported a low of 25 so far. At this time it is clear here and 29 there is trace amounts of snow and ice on the roofs and cars here.
 

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9 hours ago, james1976 said:

Vets Day storm prolly gonna be a Dakotas special. Not surprising this early in the season. Get ready @FAR_Weather!

Mehh we'll see lol. I got burned on way too many "Dakotas specials" last year to enjoy this right now.

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>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 2.8"

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16 minutes ago, Niko said:

White ground attm as if it snowed. Crystal clear skies, no wind at all and a cold temp at 29F. Hello November!

There is a combination of frost, snow and ice here as there was a couple of snow showers mixed with rain and then it became clear and thus the frost.

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4 minutes ago, westMJim said:

There is a combination of frost, snow and ice here as there was a couple of snow showers mixed with rain and then it became clear and thus the frost.

Best combo for November standards.

Btw: Congrats on ur first flakes. No flakes made here yesterday, but up north, look-out. Some places had some healthy amounts.

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Snowfall as of today Nov, 2021 is: 6.2"

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Pretty good agreement so far on a healthy storm late next week in the upper Midwest.  GRR NWS mentions "gales of November".  Unfortunately it will be too warm here for anything exciting winter wise (unless something drastically changes in track).  But good luck to the early winners of fall up north and west!

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6 hours ago, Tom said:

The U.P. got their first taste of LES and they sure added up near MQT...this map shows 8-12" on the east side of the U.P...

 

1.png

 

While on the topic of snow, Alaska has been inundated by Ol' Man Winters early grip yet again this year....massive amounts of snow at a record setting pace near Homer/Valdez area.  I'm sure we'll see some snowy scenes on the show "Alaska The Last Frontier" come spring time next year when the new episodes are released.

https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news/alaskans-brace-for-a-record-12-feet-of-snow-in-two-days

 

Oh, ya...about that Vet's day storm....0z Euro for eye candy...Dakota's special...

2.png

Got a feeling the UP will be buried in LES early this winter.  Especially with a brief warmup coming.  Warmer Lake is ripe for heavy events.  Looks like a pattern change coming by next weekend.  

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This is from Lezaks blog this morning discussing the storm next week.  It may not be a hard cutter

Then, by mid-next week, a negatively tilted trough will zip out into the middle of the nation. A negatively tilted trough "tilts" to the right, and a positively tilted trough leans from northeast to southwest, or to the left. Negatively tilted troughs are much more energetic, and this one needs to be watched closely next week. I will discuss this in more detail on the air tonight. This system will likely be a strong storm, but it may end up tracking north of KC. I am not sold on that yet, so let's see how the models trend.

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9 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

Ok, i'll post it.  Guaranteed to happen.  👌

The Euro is much more progressive with the energy, but it's a long way out and models will flop around a lot.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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3 hours ago, Clinton said:

Euro Control slowed down the main energy and was further SE.  More model flopping ahead.

1636653600-rVuBW9J2zZs.png

Best time of the year bud has arrived weatherwise, when we get to watch the models flip flop in anticipation of a storm track 😅

 

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Snowfall as of today Nov, 2021 is: 6.2"

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Temps are dropping like a rock. Already down to the mid 30s. Lows tanite will be falling easily in the 20s once again (mid to upper 20s). Hard Freeze on tap! Tbh, looking forward to this "Indian Summer" coming up this weekend and especially early next week. Will kinda feel like a break from the chill that we are experiencing now, b4 the next batch arrives soon.

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Snowfall as of today Nov, 2021 is: 6.2"

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Boy, are the models flip flopping run-to-run and the blocking is certainly adding another layer of confusion for them.  For instance, you can see the trend in the 0z GEFS over the past 7 runs.  The culprit...a stronger Archipelago HP and stronger western U.S. ridge.  The year of high lat blocking is playing a role...I'm also seeing more ensemble members shifting SE.  The year of the "SE trend"?  Hmmmm...could be something to watch in the models as the season of storm tracking has begun.  This is going to be my first legit system of the season that officially kicks off "storm tracking"...check that off the bucket list....I'll probably start a storm thread in the next day or two.

 

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image.png

 

0z EPS...I'm really diggin' the expansive coverage of snow over Canada...nature laying down the foundation...

2.gif

 

Looking down the road, towards the start of the Holiday season...is that foundation going to support a colder pattern???  LR GEFS....Warm Arctic = Cold CONUS....Bonus = Snowy times???  The signals are certainly pointing towards a wintry pattern, unlike we have seen in recent years.  I think the last time we had a cold Thanksgiving holiday week was back in '13 or '14.  I do remember one of those years putting up my Christmas Lights and it was pretty darn cold outside.

 

1.png

 

How about the Euro Weeklies from Monday?  Trending even colder/snowier as we get closer to the aforementioned period above...

5.png

 

30-day snow mean...

6.png

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