November 2021 Observations and Discussion

[MIKEKC]

34 minutes ago, Clinton said:

@Tom you mentioned a storm around the 7th using the BSR.  I've noticed that the models keep hinting at cut-off low coming out of the SW and moving across the country close to that time frame.  Long ways out still but if it gets ahold of some gulf moisture and with a cool pattern in place, it could be the first Winter storm for you guys up north.  Thought it might be worth a mention and a good early call for you if it goes that way.

Clinton, that good ole Canadian Model has that storm you are talking about. The 0Z run has us shoveling...

Lets see how high the rain gauges go today and tomorrow. (NWS has us in the 2-3 inch range) This will be a slow moving 2-day storm here in KC and your area off to the SE of the City. Very wet storm. Beautiful track on it. 

My flower beds are still in full bloom, still no frost and/or freeze. That may be about to change next week. Last year I lost the flower beds in mid OCT. 

[Clinton]

5 minutes ago, MIKEKC said:

Clinton, that good ole Canadian Model has that storm you are talking about. The 0Z run has us shoveling...

Lets see how high the rain gauges go today and tomorrow. (NWS has us in the 2-3 inch range) This will be a slow moving 2-day storm here in KC and your area off to the SE of the City. Very wet storm. Beautiful track on it. 

My flower beds are still in full bloom, still no frost and/or freeze. That may be about to change next week. Last year I lost the flower beds in mid OCT. 

The euro and Euro control had a similar track but I think we'll be to warm here this time.  It has been nice to have a warm Oct and be able to get out spend time outside.  As far as the next 2 days you couldn't realistically ask for a better storm for us, slow moving and a ton of moisture.  I'm still surprised that our farm ponds are still not full even with all the recent rains, the hot dry September really did a number on them.

[Tom]

1 hour ago, Clinton said:

@Tom you mentioned a storm around the 7th using the BSR.  I've noticed that the models keep hinting at cut-off low coming out of the SW and moving across the country close to that time frame.  Long ways out still but if it gets ahold of some gulf moisture and with a cool pattern in place, it could be the first Winter storm for you guys up north.  Thought it might be worth a mention and a good early call for you if it goes that way.

Give or take a couple days, that period and around Veterans Day is interesting.  One thing about this pattern, it just doesn’t wanna stop!  Remember those pesky southern/central ridges that seemingly always showed up in years past???  2021 is definitely different and KC appears to have a magnet.  I’m excited for you guys down there and also@Andie @OKwx2k4…esp, down over OK…

[Niko]

Here come the flakes next week:

NOAA:

Winds will back from NE to N/NW on Saturday, but not before
favorable fetch sets up over southern Lake Huron. Expect
drizzly/showery conditions along the southern Huron shoreline most
of the day while precip diminishes from west to east elsewhere.
Heights rebound Sunday with inbound ridge brining a brief warm up
and dry conditions after zonal flow ensues. Sizable PV anomaly
churns over central Canada on Monday and Tuesday with marked cooling
trend into the midweek timeframe. May even see a few wet flakes
early Tuesday with any light precip that arises from passing surface

[tStacsh]

14 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Not that I wouldn't love to see another Nov of '98 wind-bomb, but save it for winter and let the snow be on SMI.

Are we even following the same forum? This pattern has been anything BUT endless cutters to our west. If anything it's been quite the opposite.

Kinda surprised to see this from GRR this pm (and not even their resident winter enthusiast "WDM")

 

I just meant a heavy snow event up there.  Models are so far off right now in the long range, who knows what to think?  GFS has a huge SE ridge and big cutter near the end of the run.  Euro is completely different 7-10 days out.  GFS has several days in the 60's NOV 6-10.  I HIGHLY DOUBT that will happen, but it would fit the trend of Fall so far.  Cold shots followed by a period of nice warmth.  But that happens in a very active pattern.  

[Clinton]

It's good to this map start to color up.  @CentralNebWeatheryou might be first up.

[CentralNebWeather]

3 minutes ago, Clinton said:

It's good to this map start to color up.  @CentralNebWeatheryou might be first up.

Whoa.  I am draining the sprinkler system this week.  Going to pick up some leaves tomorrow when we have some sunshine.  Many days of lows in the 20's starting Sunday night.  Hard freeze for sure, and hopefully some snow.  Thanks for posting the map.  Much appreciated.

[CentralNebWeather]

12Z Euro at 120 hours.  Nice little band of snow on Monday morning.  

[Hawkeye]

[james1976]

1 hour ago, CentralNebWeather said:

12Z Euro at 120 hours.  Nice little band of snow on Monday morning.  

Shove it this way after you're done with it!

[CentralNebWeather]

26 minutes ago, james1976 said:

Shove it this way after you're done with it!

As always, long way out so I don't ever assume anything.  We are getting to the time of year when we have had big storms.  Not saying this will be big.  Halloween of 1991 is still the standard in this area of early season storms/blizzards.  After that, Nov. 11th of 2000 was a big snow producer.  

[jaster220]

2 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

As always, long way out so I don't ever assume anything.  We are getting to the time of year when we have had big storms.  Not saying this will be big.  Halloween of 1991 is still the standard in this area of early season storms/blizzards.  After that, Nov. 11th of 2000 was a big snow producer.  

It's really really difficult to get early season storms here in SMI. By early here, that would be before gun deer season which opens on the 15th. The earliest big storm would have to be Nov 2-3, 1966. A freakishly early storm that kicked-off one of the top 5 winters for this region.

 

[Niko]

NOAA:
A pattern shift commences for the late weekend as a Pacific jet
impinges upon the region and forces downstream ridging overhead.
Currently looking at a dry forecast for the holiday Sunday with the
lake effect shutting off as winds back to the northwest and
eventually west. The jet stream sinks south during the early week,
sending a strong but moisture-lacking cold front across the Great
Lakes. Still some spread regarding timing of the front, but looking
at temperatures tumbling well below normal during the early week and
staying there through the bulk of next week.

 

Looks like November is going to enter like an "Lion."

[jaster220]

54 minutes ago, Niko said:

NOAA:
A pattern shift commences for the late weekend as a Pacific jet
impinges upon the region and forces downstream ridging overhead.
Currently looking at a dry forecast for the holiday Sunday with the
lake effect shutting off as winds back to the northwest and
eventually west. The jet stream sinks south during the early week,
sending a strong but moisture-lacking cold front across the Great
Lakes. Still some spread regarding timing of the front, but looking
at temperatures tumbling well below normal during the early week and
staying there through the bulk of next week.

 

Looks like November is going to enter like an "Lion."

The question remains. Will that lion roar with some active wx? Not too excited for just cold coming and squatting on me with a few flurries off of Lk Michigan. I know that's much more typical tho around here with early season Plains blasts. 

[Mr Marine Layer]

4 hours ago, Niko said:

NOAA:
A pattern shift commences for the late weekend as a Pacific jet
impinges upon the region and forces downstream ridging overhead.
Currently looking at a dry forecast for the holiday Sunday with the
lake effect shutting off as winds back to the northwest and
eventually west. The jet stream sinks south during the early week,
sending a strong but moisture-lacking cold front across the Great
Lakes. Still some spread regarding timing of the front, but looking
at temperatures tumbling well below normal during the early week and
staying there through the bulk of next week.

 

Looks like November is going to enter like an "Lion."

Will October go out like a lamb?

[Tom]

Great Minds Think Alike...where did you hear this???

Quote

 

 

 

Judah Cohen

 

@judah47

·

Oct 26

 

Weather models are predicting new month-new weather pattern across North America. Ridging in the west & troughing in the east will help erase negative #snow cover anomalies in Eastern Canada & brings the first snowfall forecasts of the season for Northeast US, alas not impressive

 

Well, on a technical note, as we embark on the open of a new month with a new N.A. 500mb pattern...does that result in a new storm track/pattern for the CONUS???  Nope!  The pattern that keeps on giving....#SouthernStream.  Let's dive in....

Last night's 0z EPS sniffing out both storm dates on my calendar....however, there is a sneaky surprise lead wave that is/has been showing up over the past couple days right as we open the month.  Not 1, Not 2...but 3 systems are poised to effect our Sub through the end of Week 2 and the one showing up in the LR towards Veteran's Day has my attention (BIGLY Attention). 

Wrt storm dates, there is now a TX PanHandle Cutter showing up between the 1st-4th, followed by the 4 corners/SW energy between the 7th-9th (Cutter #2)....and finishing off with a Bang during the later parts of Week 2???  @jaster220, to answer your question, it doesn't appear that storm systems will be lacking.  Of course, storm tracks are TBD but the fact that they keep showing up over, or near, our region continues the theme that began during the early parts of Oct.

06z EPS members suggesting a wintry component over the Plains...1st snow on deck???

 

[CentralNebWeather]

Nice eye candy.  Fun to look at.  One of my farmer friends follows this man and just posted it.  

 

[IMoveALot_Weather]

NW flow.

[jaster220]

34 minutes ago, FAR_Weather said:

NW flow.

The wx life you chose

[someweatherdude]

GFS is doing its best to not give KC its first freeze through the entire run while the Eruo and Canadian both take the freezing temps all the way down to the Red River (or thereabouts).

[Niko]

Could the first snowflakes of the season fall during the first week of November here in SMI?! Looks there is a chance for that happening......

NOAA:

A cold front is still on pace to sweep through the region late
Sunday into early Monday as a strong Pacific jet sinks south and
east across the northern CONUS. The degree of dry air that likely
works in Sunday will keep precip chances low during frontal passage.
The front will however bring temps below normal through the week
with 850mb temps settling around -5C. Highs in the 40s and lows in
the 30s will be common next week. There is good agreement among mid
range guidance for the next wave to move through on Tuesday,
bringing the next precip chances. Depending on timing, some snow
showers will be possible with this wave.  

 

[Clinton]

34 minutes ago, Niko said:

Could the first snowflakes of the season fall during the first week of November here in SMI?! Looks there is a chance for that happening......

NOAA:

A cold front is still on pace to sweep through the region late
Sunday into early Monday as a strong Pacific jet sinks south and
east across the northern CONUS. The degree of dry air that likely
works in Sunday will keep precip chances low during frontal passage.
The front will however bring temps below normal through the week
with 850mb temps settling around -5C. Highs in the 40s and lows in
the 30s will be common next week. There is good agreement among mid
range guidance for the next wave to move through on Tuesday,
bringing the next precip chances. Depending on timing, some snow
showers will be possible with this wave.  

 

Good luck!  It's about time to get some flakes flying, I think the colder weather next week get everyone excited for winter. 

[Niko]

51 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Good luck!  It's about time to get some flakes flying, I think the colder weather next week get everyone excited for winter. 

Thanks buddy, but tbh, I don't want anything big yet. I prefer end of November to be the target date for snow. In the meantime, a few snowshowers flying in the air early November is always welcome by me. It puts you in the Holiday spirit.

[Madtown]

13 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Nice eye candy.  Fun to look at.  One of my farmer friends follows this man and just posted it.  

 

I'd take this over this way. Nice little start to the season.

[Mr Marine Layer]

Things look to get interesting over there next week.

[Niko]

Looks active next week! That low has an fantastic track. Just wish it was in the latter part of November, not early.

[IMoveALot_Weather]

1 hour ago, Niko said:

Looks active next week! That low has an fantastic track. Just wish it was in the latter part of November, not early.

Getting an early start on the horrible jet stream for me.

[tStacsh]

2 hours ago, Niko said:

Looks active next week! That low has an fantastic track. Just wish it was in the latter part of November, not early.

yep wasted rain storm.  Just not enough super cold air yet anywhere except northern parts may get some decent snows soon.  

[Hawkeye]

The upcoming week of cold has trended to also be very uneventful around here.  That's fine, though, as I'd rather the big events wait til winter.

[GDR]

Here’s to a winter that is not two weeks away!

[Mr Marine Layer]

Looks like chances for some NE snow next week have diminished. 

[james1976]

2 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

The upcoming week of cold has trended to also be very uneventful around here.  That's fine, though, as I'd rather the big events wait til winter.

Schnack still has 40s from the 1st-8th and 20s for lows.

[OKwx2k4]

On 10/27/2021 at 7:32 AM, Tom said:

Give or take a couple days, that period and around Veterans Day is interesting.  One thing about this pattern, it just doesn’t wanna stop!  Remember those pesky southern/central ridges that seemingly always showed up in years past???  2021 is definitely different and KC appears to have a magnet.  I’m excited for you guys down there and also@Andie @OKwx2k4…esp, down over OK…

You nailed it. Whstever weak ridging we have seen since the July cold wave has been met with an attacking trough. This pattern is awesome. Plus, there's an open doir for late season phasing out SW like the good ole days. Im excited.

[OKwx2k4]

Just estch the models going forward from right now on. The bering sea is getting wrecked and has been and getting cold dumped on it for weeks.

Cold futures have great weight. Especially going past 11/5 or so.

White Thanksgiving for 1/2 of the nation?

Sorry for typos in above post.

[CentralNebWeather]

 

[CentralNebWeather]

 

[jaster220]

1 hour ago, CentralNebWeather said:

 

..and so it begins

[CentralNebWeather]

 

[Tom]

It seems like it was yesterday when we were all baking in the endless heat and humidity from this past summer, esp up north and west across our Sub.  Those day are history and engraved in our memory, but what is coming next week is what some of us have been yearning for a LONG time.  Next will feature a week of "firsts" for a lot of us....1st snows?  1st Freeze?  1st Lake Effect Snows?  1st cold wave....???  Let's see what the models are showing....

0z Euro...

 

 

 

We open up Novembrrrrr......chilly nights ahead where HP is centered over the heartland of the nation underneath clear skies and perfect radiational cooling conditions...

 

 

 

[CentralNebWeather]

 

[Clinton]

50 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

 

Great way to open November it should be beautiful!

[CentralNebWeather]

[CentralNebWeather]

 

[CentralNebWeather]

 

[CentralNebWeather]

[jaster220]

Hmm. First time hearing about this:

GRR:

Quote

.MARINE...
Issued at 1125 AM EDT Sun Oct 31 2021

Winds and waves will become hazardous to small craft as the day
continues. Webcams show the whitecaps increasing as the cold front
passes. These conditions will likely persist into Tuesday. Water
temperatures remain in the upper 50s over the majority of the lake
surface, which will help support some lake- enhanced rain showers
today. Waterspout potential is leaning toward unlikely on the
nomogram with lake-850 delta T of 15C and a convective cloud depth
of less than 5000 feet.

Just when you kinda figured you'd seen it all..

[Mr Marine Layer]

None of the white stuff yet :(

[OmahaSnowFan]

This weeks chilly, then that’s a lotta red…

One big storm around mid month but it’s rain unless you’re in the western Dakotas and there’s no cold air behind it as temps are still above normal after the system passes

[Tom]

1 hour ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

This weeks chilly, then that’s a lotta red…

One big storm around mid month but it’s rain unless you’re in the western Dakotas and there’s no cold air behind it as temps are still above normal after the system passes

Remember that LR GFS temp map you posted a while back (Oct 17th) that showed a blow torch to end Oct and open Nov?  It's pretty obvious that it isn't turning out quite that well...I know your just posting these maps to show the warmth but why not show some balance when its not??  Personally, I'm not perfect and make bad calls but in all fairness, I've gotten a lot better highlighting both sides of the spectrum.  I have posted on the record warmth in Oct, esp around the GL's region, but going against those who seek colder weather and snow isn't necessarily fair. I dunno if your doing it on purpose or not but I don't think I've seen you post or comment when the weather turns cold.

 

I'm pretty sure I got ridiculed by some (quietly) on here when I was calling for a major trough 2-3 weeks back that would develop across the eastern CONUS to close out Oct.  That was during a time when the models had zero clue and it ended up verifying.  Turned out to be a D**n good LR call. 

Speaking on the topic of LR maps, the one you're showing above.  Are you posting that to prove or predict it'll be warm???  Again??  My call, after the Veteran's Day system (give or take a day or two), I'm watching for your area to get a blast of real chilly air as the pattern will have a winter bite in the air .  I made a LR call about a week ago to look for a storm during this period and its prob going to verify as well.

BTW, you can call me out anytime, I don't mind taking constructive criticism.  That's how I grow.  I'll be honest, I like hearing your side of the story the more I read your comments.  I welcome the balance on this forum.  Happy Monday!

 

 

 

[Tom]

Welcome to Novembrrr!  Lake effect snows have fired up to our north...I didn't realize this, but IndianHead Mtn Ski Resort combined with neighboring Blackjack Mtn into Big Snow Resort.  Let it snow...

https://www.bigsnow.com/live-cams

Current conditions at

Ironwood, Gogebic-Iron County Airport (KIWD)

Lat: 46.53°NLon: 90.13°WElev: 1230ft.

Light Snow

34°F

1°C

Humidity	76%
Wind Speed	W 14 mph
Barometer	30.03 in (1018.2 mb)
Dewpoint	27°F (-3°C)
Visibility	10.00 mi
Wind Chill	25°F (-4°C)
Last update	1 Nov 1:56 am CDT