November 2021 Observations and Discussion

[OmahaSnowFan]

My parents are sitting in the sandbox in their backyard

Meanwhile it’s jumped to 73.1 IMBY after a slow start to the warming this morning with high clouds. 

[GDR]

Heat wave let down here off by about 12°

[Madtown]

hit 33 for a high here....forecasted 39

[GDR]

Up 1 degree to 56 far from 67 

[tStacsh]

I'd take a cold northwest flow right now into December.  

[james1976]

Underperformed here today. Forecast was upper 50s. Ended up in the low 50s with a lot of mid level clouds. Local met has 30s for highs the next 10 days except a couple low 40s. Normal high right now is 46. So we look to be below normal for the next 10 days.

[jaster220]

My car thermometer lights up a snowflake icon when temps dip below 40F. It's been LIT morning and evening for days now. Harbinger of our winter ahead?

[jaster220]

This is ofc, just another GFS "this is what could happen if every wx star aligns perfectly" kind of run so take it fwiw. Every time we had systems last winter, the cold never pressed south. New year, new winter. Let's see what it's made of shall we? The next "exam" for the models is looming early next week. We're in the time-frame for them to be sniffing something if it's going to happen.

 

Not hard to believe WMI is going to do well going forward as we get truly cold air to come down and play.

Quote

...Next major system early next week

A digging 140 knot jet core (into the Pacific Northwest) on Sunday
helps develop our next major system that moves into this area
later Sunday into Monday. This will bring rain showers to the area
later Sunday into early Monday. Behind that system`s cold front,
which will come through here during the day on Monday, is by far
the coldest air of the season. It looks like we will have our
first day with highs below freezing on Tuesday. Do expect
significant lake effect snow showers with this system. With air
that cold, the snow may stay on the ground for a few days too.

Quote

Long range solutions show this pattern breaking by the beginning of next work
week as a potent wave drops out of British Columbia into the central
Plains. Strengthening surface low pressure tied to this wave then
tracks into the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley Monday into Tuesday. Too
early to try to nail down specifics but will be something to watch
over the coming days.

 

I'm more stoked about what lies ahead than usual at this time of year. Got a good vibe goin about this looming pattern..

[Niko]

Next week will be by far the coldest I have seen thus far this season and for many peeps on here as well. BRRR!! Now, can there be a storm in the mix and we are golden.

[Clinton]

AO and NAO are about to go negative, it's just a matter of time before the models latch on consistently.  Ensembles are beginning to do so already.

[jaster220]

1 hour ago, Niko said:

Next week will be by far the coldest I have seen thus far this season and for many peeps on here as well. BRRR!! Now, can there be a storm in the mix and we are golden.

Your fave dude Joe "B" Bastardi in his weekend outlook mentions the risk of that storm bringing NYC a rare white Thanksgiving. Said the last time was '89 (analogs anyone?), and before that was like 1938. Showed some maps of the cold plunge over the east next week and it looked like Barney is on the move! 

[Niko]

2 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Your fave dude Joe "B" Bastardi in his weekend outlook mentions the risk of that storm bringing NYC a rare white Thanksgiving. Said the last time was '89 (analogs anyone?), and before that was like 1938. Showed some maps of the cold plunge over the east next week and it looked like Barney is on the move! 

Yes sir! I remember that year in the back of my mind as if it were yesterday. So,Thanksgiving Eve, 1989, my family and I were in Astoria, Queens shopping in Greek stores (buying meat, Greek cheese and all sorts of food to prepare for our big get-together w family the next day. I remember sitting in the back seat while my father had the radio on in the car and suddenly I hear snow is coming by midnight. At that time it was about 8:30pm or so. I was shocked at how early and weird it would be to have a White Thanksgiving, but it happened. NYC received a whopping 4.7" and spots in Whitestone, Queens got even more (where I used to live at that time). Long Island did well also. But, unfortunately, that Winter turned out sucky. The only good part was December, when temps were frigid and I mean teens for highs considerably (and there was a time when high temps remained in the single digits) and near zero at night and below a few nights (some snowy scenes here and there), but that was it. Afterwards towards the end of the month, Winter decided to leave and never came back again that season.

[james1976]

@ClintonGFS is teasing the end of the month system you've been calling for.

[Grizzcoat]

Starting to think the rest of NOV may not be as cold as some here thought and that DEC may be a bust by nearly all forecasters (at least the ones I follow). Nearly all have seen a below avg Dec for Upper Midwest / Plains but if PP is on to something (and he usually is) it very well could be another disappointing start to winter for many (esp those in the W). The E folks in MI should do OK. Just some rambles as my gut is telling me not so fast with a cold DEC. FTR- PP had the Upper Plains/Midwest cold for DEC, now I don't think he is as confident.

 

From PP at Accu-WX-

Looking ahead toward December we check out the stratospheric polar vortex and the tropospheric vortex. We find that these are not coupling. The polar vortex in the stratosphere is growing stronger in late November and early December, which keeps the very cold air circulating around the pole with no transfer down due to a negative AO and displaced polar vortex. This means a wavy pattern may persist into early December; therefore, the current pattern may go on through the first week of December with more and more support for upper troughs reaching the East and mild, dry weather in the Southwest. We need to be ready in case there is coupling, then a more zonal, milder pattern may arise in week two or week three of December with less big storms in the East and more wet and snow for the West.

 

[Tom]

9 hours ago, jaster220 said:

This is ofc, just another GFS "this is what could happen if every wx star aligns perfectly" kind of run so take it fwiw. Every time we had systems last winter, the cold never pressed south. New year, new winter. Let's see what it's made of shall we? The next "exam" for the models is looming early next week. We're in the time-frame for them to be sniffing something if it's going to happen.

 

Not hard to believe WMI is going to do well going forward as we get truly cold air to come down and play.

 

I'm more stoked about what lies ahead than usual at this time of year. Got a good vibe goin about this looming pattern..

Ditto to the above...I'll also add to this comment that the pattern heading into the close of Nov and opening of DEC favors the eastern part of our Sub compared to the western Sub.  The idea of the west coast ridge poking eastward won't be a benefit to winter wx fans out in the Plains, but our region looks better.  

0z Euro/EPS painting some decent LES potential with the Sun/Mon potent system...

 

Bundle up for Turkey Day....might be one of those ideal Thanksgiving feasts when you have family together while the fireplace is going in the background.   Meanwhile, I'll have the patio deck wide open letting in a nice warm breeze.  

 

[Tom]

1 hour ago, Grizzcoat said:

Starting to think the rest of NOV may not be as cold as some here thought and that DEC may be a bust by nearly all forecasters (at least the ones I follow). Nearly all have seen a below avg Dec for Upper Midwest / Plains but if PP is on to something (and he usually is) it very well could be another disappointing start to winter for many (esp those in the W). The E folks in MI should do OK. Just some rambles as my guy is telling me not so fast with a cold DEC. FTR- PP had the Upper Plains/Midwest cold for DEC, now I don't think he is as confident.

 

From PP at Accu-WX-

Looking ahead toward December we check out the stratospheric polar vortex and the tropospheric vortex. We find that these are not coupling. The polar vortex in the stratosphere is growing stronger in late November and early December, which keeps the very cold air circulating around the pole with no transfer down due to a negative AO and displaced polar vortex. This means a wavy pattern may persist into early December; therefore, the current pattern may go on through the first week of December with more and more support for upper troughs reaching the East and mild, dry weather in the Southwest. We need to be ready in case there is coupling, then a more zonal, milder pattern may arise in week two or week three of December with less big storms in the East and more wet and snow for the West.

 

Sadly, this sorta fits my long standing call of an early DEC pullback and now that could be extended into mid DEC if these LR signals continue.  This threat is more-so for those farther west as you alluded to above.

[GDR]

#BuildTheGlacier……
#2WeeksAfterThat……

[Tom]

Both EPS/GEFS are beginning to sniff out a "cutter" during the Thanksgiving period and then another one around the 29th/30th...could be an eventful finish to the month for the eastern Sub.  -NAO block will certainly aid in this pattern.  I'll dive into this a bit more later...meantime, I'll prob get up early on Friday and look west to see the Lunar Eclipse...best viewing will be the western U.S.

https://www.space.com/beaver-moon-lunar-eclipse-longest-of-century-phases

[Clinton]

18 minutes ago, Tom said:

Both EPS/GEFS are beginning to sniff out a "cutter" during the Thanksgiving period and then another one around the 29th/30th...could be an eventful finish to the month for the eastern Sub.  -NAO block will certainly aid in this pattern.  I'll dive into this a bit more later...meantime, I'll prob get up early on Friday and look west to see the Lunar Eclipse...best viewing will be the western U.S.

https://www.space.com/beaver-moon-lunar-eclipse-longest-of-century-phases

It was cool to here Gary mention the storm I have been predicting for the 29/30th on the news last night.  He also discussed how terrible the models are at this point in time in his blog yesterday, they can't digest the blocking.

[Tom]

2 minutes ago, Clinton said:

It was cool to here Gary mention the storm I have been predicting for the 29/30th on the news last night.  He also discussed how terrible the models are at this point in time, they can't digest the blocking.

Does he mention at all what part of the 1st cycle this storm correlates to?

[Clinton]

7 minutes ago, Tom said:

Does he mention at all what part of the 1st cycle this storm correlates to?

Oct 10th/11th, and if you remember there was a cutter just ahead of that storm.

[westMJim]

The overnight low here was 41 but the temperature has been going up all night and now it is 53 here at my house. 

[Niko]

Warm Front will usher temps here today to rise well into the 50s. Some locales could be in the low 60s. That will have to come w showers unfortunately and limited sun, but, it will feel great anyways being outside.

Note: Next week, temps might be at freezing for the first time this season for highs, or at least slightly above. Certainly will be the coldest air of the season thus far. Models are still in the air w a storm system at that time. As @Clintonsaid above in his statement, "computer models cannot digest that blocking yet", so we wait and see what happens. So far, my forecast calls w that system early next week snow/rain mix going to all snow or snowshowers.

[GDR]

[tStacsh]

Up to 60 here and a warm rain drizzle, feels nice outside.  Interested in Monday/Tuesday time frame for a possible decent LES event.  Chances of any  synoptic snowstorms seem to be sometime in the distant future.  But I'll take colder air and LES any day.  LES is so much nicer to snowblow and enjoy.  

[james1976]

Latest GFS cuts the end of month system thru IA (imagine that) and dumps snow from NE-MN.

[jaster220]

29 minutes ago, james1976 said:

Latest GFS cuts the end of month system thru IA (imagine that) and dumps snow from NE-MN.

2 weeks out. Pointless to make anything good or bad of that portrayal. I know we all want that first true storm. I sure do after Sunday's little appetizer. Sadly, just as those 384hr GFS snow maps are useless, the Op GFS runs beyond about 72 hrs aren't any better.

[Clinton]

29 minutes ago, james1976 said:

Latest GFS cuts the end of month system thru IA (imagine that) and dumps snow from NE-MN.

 

Just now, jaster220 said:

2 weeks out. Pointless to make anything good or bad of that portrayal. I know we all want that first true storm. I sure do after Sunday's little appetizer. Sadly, just as those 384hr GFS snow maps are useless, the Op GFS runs beyond about 72 hrs aren't any better.

That storm goes with a prediction I made a few weeks ago and is related to a storm that we had Oct 9th-11th.  It's too early to draw conclusions but not to early to discuss that storm.  @james1976the GFS is slowly coming around but I would be majorly disappointed if it cut to my west.

[jaster220]

Before today's micro-heatwave reverses the trend, DTW is running negative on the month here.

 

 

[james1976]

6 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

2 weeks out. Pointless to make anything good or bad of that portrayal. I know we all want that first true storm. I sure do after Sunday's little appetizer. Sadly, just as those 384hr GFS snow maps are useless, the Op GFS runs beyond about 72 hrs aren't any better.

Oh I know. I just think its funny cuz Iowa always seems to be a low magnet. 

[jaster220]

2 minutes ago, Clinton said:

 

That storm goes with a prediction I made a few weeks ago and is related to a storm that we had Oct 9th-11th.  It's too early to draw conclusions but not to early to discuss that storm.  @james1976the GFS is slowly coming around but I would be majorly disappointed if it cut to my west.

Yeah, I just meant wrt how the GFS is portraying it, not the potential of a storm in the time-frame. You're good bud. Hopefully by then it's nailing the entire forum.

[Clinton]

[Jayhawker85]

1 hour ago, Clinton said:

Now just 100 miles further north and west and i will be very happy with this! 

[Clinton]

2 minutes ago, Jayhawker85 said:

Now just 100 miles further north and west and i will be very happy with this! 

If I remember right you and @mlgamer were in the bullseye of the heaviest precip in our area. I think it will be stronger and further north than what that model showed.

[mlgamer]

41 minutes ago, Clinton said:

If I remember right you and @mlgamer were in the bullseye of the heaviest precip in our area. I think it will be stronger and further north than what that model showed.

Yep. The Oct 10/11 and Oct 27/28 systems offer lots of promise as they cycle through this winter for my neck of the woods, though we'll have to see if they deliver. Hopefully no hours of rain with 34 degrees type stuff.

[OmahaSnowFan]

Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.......

Tonight

Clear, with a low around 30. West northwest wind around 10 mph.

Thursday

Sunny, with a high near 42. Northwest wind 8 to 13 mph becoming light west northwest in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 22 mph.

Thursday Night

Partly cloudy, with a low around 29. Light and variable wind becoming south southeast 5 to 10 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 17 mph.

Friday

Partly sunny, with a high near 49. South wind 10 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph.

Friday Night

Mostly cloudy, with a low around 33. South wind 5 to 9 mph becoming light after midnight.

Saturday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 52.

Saturday Night

Mostly cloudy, with a low around 35.

Sunday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 47.

Sunday Night

Partly cloudy, with a low around 22.

Monday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 36.

Monday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 26.

Tuesday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 50.

Tuesday Night

Mostly cloudy, with a low around 33.

Wednesday

Partly sunny, with a high near 43.

[GDR]

Snoozer!!!

[GDR]

[Anti Marine Layer]

How is the weather in KOMA?

[Niko]

6 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Before today's micro-heatwave reverses the trend, DTW is running negative on the month here.

 

 

Finally running BN for once....