November 2021 Observations and Discussion

[mlgamer]

The cycle length of the new pattern remains a mystery. For fun I looked at 500mb charts for Nov 18-20 and working backwards found decent matches Sept 11-13. That would be a 68 day cycle, but mid-Sept is supposedly part of the old cycle. That would bring the Oct 11/12 system back around Dec 18. That all seems unlikely (though not impossible), so I guess it's a waiting game for me anyway until things become clearer.

[jaster220]

3 hours ago, Niko said:

Temps will remain BN except for "Turkey Day." Highs mainly in the 30s and lows in the 20s. Tanite readings will really drop. Lows are expected to be in the upper teens to around 20F. Coldest nite of the season on tap.

NOAA
Ensuing increase in cold air advection likely met with rapidly
declining moisture quality as the mid level dry slot arrives by
Thursday evening, suggesting a very limited window for a possible
transition to snow within the immediate post-frontal, synoptically
forced environment. Conditions Friday then look similar to that
noted today, characterized by below average temperatures within a
generally dry northwest flow.

Puddles were frozen solid on the streets this morning for the first time at my place. Making headway on lowering soil temps but it sounds like we will torch in Dec and all the progress will be wasted.

[jaster220]

5 hours ago, Tom said:

Boy, I got the chills looking at the temps right now out across IA/MN this morning as temps are bottoming off into the low/mid 10's!  Yikes, that must have a bite to it.... @Grizzcoat @james1976must be enjoying these temps...

Well, it doesn't look like we will have much of a Thanksgiving storm system to track this week as I thought.  It appears that both pieces of energy will phase over Ontario just like the one that just tracked thru the MW/GL's region yesterday & today.  On the other hand, the +PNA pattern and -NAO will develop a stout NW Flow and the models/ensembles are suggesting a couple clippers to dive S/SE over the MW/GL's to close out the month of Nov.  Some of you may get some bouts of snowfall until the "pullback" comes knocking on the door for those who have been BN temp wise.

IF, the 0z EPS is correct, then my long standing call weeks ago for an early DEC pullback seems to be on target.  What happens next is still in question but I suspect that we will see the models grow stronger on the idea of a colder pattern setting up post 6th/7th of DEC.  I anticipate the EPO to head towards neutral territory or even (-) which would create a favorable pattern to unleash the "Arctic Hounds" down western Canada into the western/central Sub during the 1st full week of DEC.  Depending on the LRC cycle length, I'm predicting multiple storms to traverse the Sub Week 1 of DEC and there will be plenty of blocking across Canada.  The BSR is a great LR tool and it had a dominant HP pattern that developed across the Aleutians about a week ago and it is poised to continue for quite some time.  This is a Big clue as we head deeper into DEC.

 

Enjoy the Blow Torch for those of you in the western Sub, b/c what I think will happen Week 1 of DEC will be a dramatic flip for ya'll!  #RealWinter is coming to a place near you.....

 

The Euro is not backing off the Phase 7 MJO by the DEC 6th (ish) period...

So, the only certain thing is the torch? That 2 weeks out MJO forecast (by the same model we trust for other data), is it any more reliable than a d14 weather forecast? Is there a verification score difference do you know? Even if correct, I can imagine a bit of a lag time effect to the "sensible weather" after moving into a more favorable phase. Thoughts?

[Tom]

12 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

So, the only certain thing is the torch? That 2 weeks out MJO forecast (by the same model we trust for other data), is it any more reliable than a d14 weather forecast? Is there a verification score difference do you know? Even if correct, I can imagine a bit of a lag time effect to the "sensible weather" after moving into a more favorable phase. Thoughts?

Generally, I find the Euro do a better job with the MJO forecasts out into Week 2.  Let's see what the Euro Weeklies show later today and go from there.

[james1976]

@Tom yeah it was cold this morning. I drove down from the TC and my car was reading 12-14° most of the trip.

[GDR]

Storm back on!!!

[Niko]

Temps are dropping like a rock. Already in the upper 20s. Nighttime lows in the teens.

[Niko]

NOAA:

A highly amplified but still progressive upper level flow dominates
the mid to late week period. It brings dry weather Tuesday and a
warming trend by Wednesday followed by another active frontal system
for Thanksgiving. The larger scale 500 mb ridge slides across the
Great Lakes centered on Tuesday night which is driven by strong SW
low level flow. This wind pattern becomes very effective at scouring
out the early week cold air which is reflected in warmer temperature
guidance for Wednesday compared to the last few forecast cycles.
Highs near 50 are possible which would be nearly 10 degrees above
normal heading into Thanksgiving. The good news here is that warm
air is likely in place leading up to the next low pressure system
and front for Thanksgiving Day. The bulk of precipitation projected
in the extended model solutions occurs with low level thermal fields
supporting rain. The system deepens overhead and moves far enough
east for a change over to snow Thanksgiving night into Friday
morning, after the peak of model QPF but also subject to the warp-
around moisture axis Friday into next weekend.

Maybe a few snowflakes for Turkey Day in the evening hours. It wont be anything of significance, but at least it will put ya in the "Holiday Spirit."

 

[Tom]

7 hours ago, jaster220 said:

So, the only certain thing is the torch? That 2 weeks out MJO forecast (by the same model we trust for other data), is it any more reliable than a d14 weather forecast? Is there a verification score difference do you know? Even if correct, I can imagine a bit of a lag time effect to the "sensible weather" after moving into a more favorable phase. Thoughts?

The Euro Weeklies MJO forecast continues to go solidly into Phase 7...it may take till end of Week 2 to see the effects of it due to the VERY slow movement.  Notice by Dec 5 its riding the border of phase 6/7 and literally crawls.

[Niko]

7 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Puddles were frozen solid on the streets this morning for the first time at my place. Making headway on lowering soil temps but it sounds like we will torch in Dec and all the progress will be wasted.

 

[GDR]

Wow, if the euro weeklies are even close to being correct Chicago peeps will be digging out for a long time!! Fun times ahead… 

[Tom]

Woah, some significant changes in last nights 0z Euro Op and ensembles to close out Nov and open Dec.  I wasn't expecting to see this happen but it appears the model is seeing more ridging across W Canada.  Trends are pointing towards a more amped up N.A. pattern allowing for a storm system to drive S/SE through the GL's and ushering another cold surge down into the MW region.

 

 

Is the Week 2 Torch getting "muted" for parts of our Sub that are across the N and E locals???  I always dig it when the models trend favorably.  Time to book a ticket back home I think...

 

Suddenly, things are starting to look quite interesting back home and across the MW/GL's region through the first few days of DEC.  I'd like to see a few more runs to get more excited about anything of significance.  As the saying goes..."trends are our friends"...let's see it continue.

 

Just for fun, the Euro Control is also seeing this sudden flip in the modeling...Barney lurking???  Gotta tell ya, that glacier being built up in Canada is definitely going to deliver some potent arctic outbreaks next month.  

 

 

 

Unlike in years past, there are basically no real widespread snow holes except for a small region north of MT.

 

 

That will most likely get filled in over the next couple weeks as systems will traverse the region...

[Clinton]

6z GFS all of a sudden bring a low up off the Gulf on Dec 1st.  hummmm

[Tom]

6 minutes ago, Clinton said:

6z GFS all of a sudden bring a low up off the Gulf on Dec 1st.  hummmm

It also is sorta signaling the Hurricane Pamela part of the cycle that showed the tropical influence...#STJ

[westMJim]

By far last night was the coldest night of the season so far. The overnight low here at my house was 15 the official overnight low at GRR looks to have been 18. With clear skies the current temperature here in my yard is 16 (15.8). For the month the mean at Grand Rapids is now at 40.8 and that is a departure of -0.7.

[tStacsh]

Models are so far off from each other after a few days out, who knows what's coming at this point.  My guess would be more of the same up and down, but maybe a surprise or two to open December?  

[Jayhawker85]

The weather pattern the last 2-3 weeks have been extremely boring for the middle part of the country. It has just been passive cold fronts and warms fronts but they have all been dry. If this is a 50-60 day cycle we can expect some long boring parts of weather for the next year. Ewww!

[Wheezer]

20 minutes ago, Jayhawker85 said:

The weather pattern the last 2-3 weeks have been extremely boring for the middle part of the country. It has just been passive cold fronts and warms fronts but they have all been dry. If this is a 50-60 day cycle we can expect some long boring parts of weather for the next year. Ewww!

IMO, this is due to a rather benign PNA signal + or -.  Nothing to amplify any surface lows that might develop.  Roll-over ridging in the west isn't cutting it .  Until that gets resolved either with a sustained moderate to strong west coast ridge or a sustained west coast trough,  rather boring uneventful weather will continue 

[jaster220]

6 hours ago, GDR said:

Wow, if the euro weeklies are even close to being correct Chicago peeps will be digging out for a long time!! Fun times ahead… 

Based on what exactly?

[Clinton]

1 hour ago, Jayhawker85 said:

The weather pattern the last 2-3 weeks have been extremely boring for the middle part of the country. It has just been passive cold fronts and warms fronts but they have all been dry. If this is a 50-60 day cycle we can expect some long boring parts of weather for the next year. Ewww!

There are some indications that the cycle length could be in the 55-60 day range, very similar to the winter of 2010/2011.  Keep in mind the jet stream reaches it's peak strength in Jan and Feb.

[james1976]

I have a bit of yard work to do in the backyard. Looks like I dont need to be in a hurry to finish that up.

[Niko]

It is frosty out there. Feels like January w temps in the teens this morning (19F to be exact). Coldest air of the season for sure. After a brief warm-up by midweek, it turns colder again by "Black Friday" and it remains cold till early next week and beyond. That takes us into December as of matter of fact. Lets see if there can be a storm come outta nowhere and provide the goods to many. What I like is the fact that all southern Canada is covered in snow. Huge help for us in the long-run, unlike other years when there was very little snow to speak of in that part of the country.

[OmahaSnowFan]

Gorgeous but windy

[gimmesnow]

The ability to create "snow" is really impressive. This is the result from the latest cold snap at Cascade. Snow guns are amazing. They open this Saturday and Sunday, planning on being there Saturday.

[jaster220]

17 minutes ago, Niko said:

It is frosty out there. Feels like January w temps in the teens this morning (19F to be exact). Coldest air of the season for sure. After a brief warm-up by midweek, it turns colder again by "Black Friday" and it remains cold till early next week and beyond. That takes us into December as of matter of fact. Lets see if there can be a storm come outta nowhere and provide the goods to many. What I like is the fact that all southern Canada is covered in snow. Huge help for us in the long-run, unlike other years when there was very little snow to speak of in that part of the country.

Starting to sound like a real Michigander there bud. DTW officially only 22F this morn, but yeah, I had 19F on my car dash when I went to work. Not sure if anything comes out of nowhere in this dry NW flow regime, but we who are anchoring the eastern edge of the Sub seem to be in better shape as far as getting legit cold. Presuming the snowpack north of Superior and west into the Canadian plains doesn't get nuked, it will make for some wicked cold blasts. Now if we can just get some snow action. I do remember that, outside of extreme SWMI where I worked, 2013-14 winter didn't start snowing across SMI until Dec 8th.

We've been dealing with a split-flow jet pattern with the N polar branch delivering the goods just north of us here in The Mitt. It has been super active along that boundary tho, so if and when that decides to drop south, we should be good for a clipper train sort of pattern at a minimum. Would be great for the west side, less so over here. Ideally ofc, we get the storm track "X" of clippers and S stream systems coming up the OHV like we saw in 08-09 and 13-14.  

[snowstorm83]

Currently 69 (ha nice) at LNK. Getting to the point of the year where temps this high start breaking daily records. The record high for today is 71, set just 4 years ago. I'm back in Memphis for Thanksgiving and it's only the mid 50s, even with blue skies and light south breeze. Very bizarre. 

[Clinton]

Gary Lezak predicts KC to get it's first inch of snow on Dec 9th.  It was the date he chose for his "snowflake contest" he does each year.  Also expects the pattern to flip in December and says it will become quite cold.

[BrianJK]

5 hours ago, gimmesnow said:

The ability to create "snow" is really impressive. This is the result from the latest cold snap at Cascade. Snow guns are amazing. They open this Saturday and Sunday, planning on being there Saturday.

If only we all had these, the winter outlooks/forecasts made on here over the last 5+ years might have came a little closer to verifying  

[jaster220]

On the lower end of what they called for, but not too shabby considering the general lack of action.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
239 PM EST TUE NOV 23 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 PM     SNOW             4 WSW SAULT STE. MARIE  46.47N 84.45W
11/23/2021  E11.0 INCH       CHIPPEWA           MI   PUBLIC

            STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL ENDING TUESDAY MORNING.

[Beltrami Island]

That Aleutian ridge looks beautiful to me.  I know some here would like it a bit further east. Sitting in the NW of this sub, this is the pattern I would draw up from scratch for my optimum winter weather pattern.  Just 12 days out, what could go wrong? 

[OmahaSnowFan]

Topped out at 66.7 IMBY. Not too bad for a couple days before Thanksgiving. 

Airport broke today's record with a high of 67. Record was from 2016. Sioux Falls broke their 119 year old records today.

According to the GFS, it looks like we'll have several more 60+ degree days through the first week of December.

[Madtown]

2-3" turkey day morning we shall see

[bud2380]

Wake me up when novembers done. I guess if weather is on some kind of cycle and it barely rained all summer, it should stand to reason that we’ll have a dry winter too right? 

[OttumwaSnomow]

21 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

Wake me up when novembers done. I guess if weather is on some kind of cycle and it barely rained all summer, it should stand to reason that we’ll have a dry winter too right? 

Ive never seen a year with so many  long dry periods! 10 to 20 days no rain was common  entire yr 2021. Now 30 days not a drop! But very wet periods as well. This probably  the thing i dislike most about midwest/plains climate. Extremely  boring to me.

[Minny_Weather]

9 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Topped out at 66.7 IMBY. Not too bad for a couple days before Thanksgiving. 

Airport broke today's record with a high of 67. Record was from 2016. Sioux Falls broke their 119 year old records today.

According to the GFS, it looks like we'll have several more 60+ degree days through the first week of December.

May as well have it warm if there's no precip to enjoy.

The one Thanksgiving I spent in Lincoln a few years ago is the one where it was in the 70s.

[GDR]

Some of the best winters growing up were the ones that we didn’t get any snow until December.

[bud2380]

56 minutes ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

Ive never seen a year with so many  long dry periods! 10 to 20 days no rain was common  entire yr 2021. Now 30 days not a drop! But very wet periods as well. This probably  the thing i dislike most about midwest/plains climate. Extremely  boring to me.

Good point, we did have some nice rainstorms after the long lulls with no precip.  So perhaps we get the occasional big snowstorm in between dry periods this year.  I hope so, I'm ready to start tracking.  

[mlgamer]

From this morning's TOP AFD:

"Friday into early next week, a fairly persistent upper pattern will set up, courtesy of a strong blocking ridge south of Greenland. This ridge will keep a trough axis centered on the East Coast, with an upstream ridge over the western CONUS. The resulting pattern favors the bulk of the cold air staying east of the area...The northwest flow aloft will keep moisture limited. With large- scale descent downstream of the ridge and upstream of the trough, precipitation chances look slim as we round out November."

We will likely stay dry the remainder of the month. Looks like we will have no measurable snow in Nov to go along with none in Oct. So I guess it's on to December to see what that brings.

[james1976]

FWIW I've seen 2 striped woolly bears this week

[OmahaSnowFan]

2 hours ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

Ive never seen a year with so many  long dry periods! 10 to 20 days no rain was common  entire yr 2021. Now 30 days not a drop! But very wet periods as well. This probably  the thing i dislike most about midwest/plains climate. Extremely  boring to me.

I noticed that too this year. Wouldn’t rain for long periods but then it would rain 1-3” at a time when it did. Definitely different this year.