Geos Posted November 9, 2021 Report Share Posted November 9, 2021 Sprinkling out there now and 57°. 1 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted November 9, 2021 Report Share Posted November 9, 2021 1 minute ago, TT-SEA said: Its not an east wind caused by high pressure overhead which tends to be localized near the gaps. Its a broad area of ESE wind ahead of an incoming trough and storm which is almost always more widespread. AKA - it will turn your snow into grupal. Seriously felt like it did last February 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 9, 2021 Report Share Posted November 9, 2021 Really interesting looking at the analogs in recent days. More than half have been from seasons that had great winters, but they run the gamut for ENSO, and other important factors. Many of the La Nina ones are from 1955, 1964, 1970, 1995, and 2008. Really hard to complain about that. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 9, 2021 Report Share Posted November 9, 2021 5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Its not an east wind caused by high pressure overhead which tends to be localized near the gaps. Its a broad area of ESE wind ahead of an incoming trough and storm which is almost always more widespread. Excellent points. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 9, 2021 Report Share Posted November 9, 2021 13 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said: Still wet. The coast gets hammered. 850s are colder this run, but nothing impressive yet. Besides the 850s getting cold next week, the models show much less onshore flow which allows the surface to get considerably colder next week than previous runs suggested. The GFS in particular has a very favorable surface pressure gradient for solidly below normal temps coming up. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 9, 2021 Report Share Posted November 9, 2021 SEA has really been killing it for wind over the past couple of weeks. The last three days had peak winds of 41, 31, and 39 respectively. Pretty respectable. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 9, 2021 Report Share Posted November 9, 2021 7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Besides the 850s getting cold next week, the models show much less onshore flow which allows the surface to get considerably colder next week than previous runs suggested. The GFS in particular has a very favorable surface pressure gradient for solidly below normal temps coming up. 00Z EPS is trending weaker with the blocking for the middle of next week... compare the 00Z run tonight (top) to the 00Z run from last night (bottom). I think it might be too early as Matt has been saying. Things are still too progressive. 2 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 9, 2021 Report Share Posted November 9, 2021 Tropical forcing analogs still say mid-December is when things get interesting. They’ve done pretty darn well thus far. http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/analogs/analogs.html 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted November 9, 2021 Report Share Posted November 9, 2021 54 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Its 54 with a dewpoint of 29 at SEA now... probably take a little while for rain to reach the ground. Had a decent shower about 45 minutes ago while I was in line at D*ck’s by UW. 1 Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 9, 2021 Report Share Posted November 9, 2021 Just now, bainbridgekid said: Had a decent shower about 45 minutes ago while I was in line at ****’s by UW. Can't say the name of that restaurant on here. 1 3 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 9, 2021 Report Share Posted November 9, 2021 SEA came in with a T on the midnight reading. So it won't be a 0.00 day... but there was also no measurable rain. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 9, 2021 Report Share Posted November 9, 2021 10 minutes ago, Phil said: Tropical forcing analogs still say mid-December is when things get interesting. They’ve done pretty darn well thus far. http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/analogs/analogs.html Yeah... its probably too early still. The 00Z EPS was not too cold either. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted November 9, 2021 Report Share Posted November 9, 2021 2 hours ago, Front Ranger said: Under the daily summary stats here: https://wrcc.dri.edu/cgi-bin/cliMAIN.pl?ak2968 Awesome, thanks for that! Do you know why the data is so much "rougher" or more variable for the entire period of record versus the 30 year averages? Does it have something to do with smoothing in the 30 year data? I made a graph of the data below and I'm just surprised there's so much "noise" in the average high and low temps over a 90 year period of record. 1 Quote Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted November 9, 2021 Report Share Posted November 9, 2021 51 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: SEA has really been killing it for wind over the past couple of weeks. The last three days had peak winds of 41, 31, and 39 respectively. Pretty respectable. As posted earlier, the 39mph obs shown is under. SEA peaked at 45mph around 10-10:30. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted November 9, 2021 Report Share Posted November 9, 2021 13 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: SEA came in with a T on the midnight reading. So it won't be a 0.00 day... but there was also no measurable rain. Yup. It was a near miss… rain showers are a lot heavier now just after midnight. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted November 9, 2021 Report Share Posted November 9, 2021 Wind is more sustained now as opposed to being quite gusty from earlier. No more howling. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 9, 2021 Report Share Posted November 9, 2021 2 hours ago, TT-SEA said: Yeah... its probably too early still. The 00Z EPS was not too cold either. Any word on what month may come after the current one? 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 9, 2021 Report Share Posted November 9, 2021 17 minutes ago, Deweydog said: Any word on what month may come afte the current one? I feel like this is a trick question. June? 6z GFS in 39 minutes 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 9, 2021 Report Share Posted November 9, 2021 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 9, 2021 Report Share Posted November 9, 2021 Pretty much no wind here. Some light rain tho. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 9, 2021 Report Share Posted November 9, 2021 11 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Pretty much no wind here. Some light rain tho. Looking at MFR, EUG no pressure rises have pushed inland yet. Soon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 9, 2021 Report Share Posted November 9, 2021 HIGH WIND WARNING San Juan County-Western Whatcom County-Western Skagit County- Admiralty Inlet Area-Eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca- Including the cities of Friday Harbor, Bellingham, Mount Vernon, Anacortes, Sedro-Woolley, Burlington, Port Townsend, and Sequim 150 AM PST Tue Nov 9 2021 ...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON... * WHAT...South winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 55 mph. * WHERE...San Juan County, Western Whatcom County, Western Skagit County, Admiralty Inlet Area and Eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca. * WHEN...Until 4 PM PST this afternoon. * IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if you must drive. -------------------------------------------- North Coast-Central Coast- Including the cities of Beaver, Clearwater, Forks, La Push, Neah Bay, Ozette, Queets, Aberdeen, and Hoquiam 150 AM PST Tue Nov 9 2021 ...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Southwest winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 55 mph. * WHERE...North Coast and Central Coast. * WHEN...Until 4 PM PST this afternoon. * IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if you must drive. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted November 9, 2021 Report Share Posted November 9, 2021 3 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: HIGH WIND WARNING San Juan County-Western Whatcom County-Western Skagit County- Admiralty Inlet Area-Eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca- Including the cities of Friday Harbor, Bellingham, Mount Vernon, Anacortes, Sedro-Woolley, Burlington, Port Townsend, and Sequim 150 AM PST Tue Nov 9 2021 ...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON... * WHAT...South winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 55 mph. * WHERE...San Juan County, Western Whatcom County, Western Skagit County, Admiralty Inlet Area and Eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca. * WHEN...Until 4 PM PST this afternoon. * IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if you must drive. -------------------------------------------- North Coast-Central Coast- Including the cities of Beaver, Clearwater, Forks, La Push, Neah Bay, Ozette, Queets, Aberdeen, and Hoquiam 150 AM PST Tue Nov 9 2021 ...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Southwest winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 55 mph. * WHERE...North Coast and Central Coast. * WHEN...Until 4 PM PST this afternoon. * IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if you must drive. Randy @MossMan and a few others up north is gonna feel this one. This is actually quite a development with the high wind warning. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 9, 2021 Report Share Posted November 9, 2021 2 minutes ago, Cloud said: Randy @MossMan and a few others up north is gonna feel this one. This is actually quite a development with the high wind warning. My thinking as well. Area of low pressure remained stronger or closed low more than expected. I dunno. Sleepy. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted November 9, 2021 Report Share Posted November 9, 2021 Expanded version of the Watches and Warnings. The Seattle area is now under High Wind Advisory. https://a.atmos.washington.edu/data/warning_report.WWA.html Quote WAZ507-509-556-558-091800- /O.EXB.KSEW.WI.Y.0026.211109T1100Z-211110T0000Z/ Everett and Vicinity-Tacoma Area-Bellevue and Vicinity- Seattle and Vicinity- Including the cities of Everett, Edmonds, Lynnwood, Marysville, Tacoma, Redmond, Kirkland, Bothell, Kenmore, Newport Hills, Sahalee, Pine Lake, and Seattle 150 AM PST Tue Nov 9 2021 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON... * WHAT...South winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 45 mph expected. * WHERE...Everett and Vicinity, Tacoma Area, Bellevue and Vicinity and Seattle and Vicinity. * WHEN...Until 4 PM PST this afternoon. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted November 9, 2021 Report Share Posted November 9, 2021 Pass still rain. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted November 9, 2021 Report Share Posted November 9, 2021 1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said: My thinking as well. Area of low pressure remained stronger or closed low more than expected. I dunno. Sleepy. This is crazy. Models were at a complete lost until the very last second? Crazy. it actually look like most of W.WA is under Wind Advisory and High Wind Warning. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted November 9, 2021 Report Share Posted November 9, 2021 Did the mesoscales did better in forecasting this overall? Looks like forecasting wind is quite hard. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 9, 2021 Report Share Posted November 9, 2021 2 minutes ago, Cloud said: Did the mesoscales did better in forecasting this overall? Looks like forecasting wind is quite hard. I would say previous runs of the NAM/MM5 and HRRR did the best job. The EURO did the worst. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted November 9, 2021 Report Share Posted November 9, 2021 EPSL is short-lived and not as strong. Advisory only until 10AM this morning. Quote WAZ555-091800- /O.EXT.KSEW.WI.Y.0026.000000T0000Z-211109T1800Z/ East Puget Sound Lowlands- Including the cities of Covington-Sawyer-w, Maple Valley, Monroe, Prairie Ridge, Enumclaw, Bonney Lake, and Woodinville 150 AM PST Tue Nov 9 2021 ...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING... * WHAT...South winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph. * WHERE...East Puget Sound Lowlands. * WHEN...Until 10 AM PST this morning. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 9, 2021 Report Share Posted November 9, 2021 Good night all 12z GFS in 5 hours 17 minutes 12z ECMWF in 7 hours 27 minutes 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smerfylicious Posted November 9, 2021 Report Share Posted November 9, 2021 Snowing at Stevens. Should get ~1.5 feet out of this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 9, 2021 Report Share Posted November 9, 2021 2 1 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 9, 2021 Report Share Posted November 9, 2021 Unfortunately AL comes back in the long range. No action for this location as usual. Just some seasonably cool weather. 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 9, 2021 Author Report Share Posted November 9, 2021 2 1 2 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted November 9, 2021 Report Share Posted November 9, 2021 4 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: @GHweatherChrisapparently knows something we don’t 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 9, 2021 Author Report Share Posted November 9, 2021 1 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T-Town Posted November 9, 2021 Report Share Posted November 9, 2021 Just had a squall come through here. Big time wind gusts and rain. Didn’t look like much on radar but packed a serious punch. Big transformer flash to my south. 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted November 9, 2021 Report Share Posted November 9, 2021 8 minutes ago, T-Town said: Just had a squall come through here. Big time wind gusts and rain. Didn’t look like much on radar but packed a serious punch. Big transformer flash to my south. Just arrived here…snowing leaves! 30 mph gust HRRR was correct on timing for this morning 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted November 9, 2021 Report Share Posted November 9, 2021 Those are leaves cruising north! 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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