PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEM Alert! Day 6-10

[Cloud]

Easily the highest wind right now coming into focus. BFI just had 21 with 26mph gust. 
 

BFI is quite in the open but also sheltered at a near Sea level with hills surround it. I sit on top of a hill, so it’s a lot more windy/gusty here. 

[Blizzard777]

2 minutes ago, Cloud said:

The winds are from the SE and occasionally ESE. 

Same here….just east of me gusting to 31 but at my house 10mph.  

[Rubus Leucodermis]

It was, in fact, a tornado: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/tornado-ubc-confirmed-1.6241724

[Front Ranger]

2 hours ago, Skagit Weather said:

That's insane! It looks like the average high temperature drops by almost 1 degree a day at peak cooling in the middle of October. Where did you find that climatological data? I know about the WRCC tables, but for Fairbanks Airport I couldn't find those exact values (I see 32.7F on October 15 and and 11.1F on November 15th)

Under the daily summary stats here: https://wrcc.dri.edu/cgi-bin/cliMAIN.pl?ak2968

[Blizzard777]

A few outages already South Sound

[Kolk1604]

6 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

00z GEM Alert! Day 6-10

Here's the 850s for the same period. Day 10 going places?

[Cloud]

4 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

It was, in fact, a tornado: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/tornado-ubc-confirmed-1.6241724

So it looks like it did briefly go over land as well and base on the damage assessment there, they gave it an EF0.  From afar, it certainly look like more than an EF0 though. 

[smerfylicious]

10 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Are y'all having east winds up there? or?

Yup. It's 52 degrees outside and 30-40mph currently. No lights flickering yet.

[AbbyJr]

6 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

00z GEM Alert! Day 6-10

Although I doubt it will verify, this run looks primed for a major arctic blast. Exciting to see so early and adds to my confidence that this will be a decent if not epic PNW winter.

[RentonHill]

1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said:

Here's the 850s for the same period. Day 10 going places?

GEFS 850s

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said:

Here's the 850s for the same period. Day 10 going places?

Heck ya it is. Thanks for posting that!

[Blizzard777]

2 minutes ago, smerfylicious said:

Yup. It's 52 degrees outside and 30-40mph currently. No lights flickering yet.

Your trees are pre bent and conditioned for this just like Troutdales trees!  
Enjoy! 

[Cloud]

3 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Heck ya it is. Thanks for posting that!

This is much better than old boring summer!

[Cloud]

Just checking in on SEA…. Just had a 35mph gust. 

[The Winter Warlock]

And… there goes all of Enumclaw on the PSE Outage map.

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, Archon said:

And… there goes all of Enumclaw on the PSE Outage map.

Yep a friend that lives out that way just posted on FB that her power is out. 

[TT-SEA]

19 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Dead calm here.

Not as windy as I expected here yet either... but when Enumclaw gets the wind then we usually have less up here. 

[Kolk1604]

Just now, MossMan said:

Yep a friend that lives out that way just posted on FB that her power is out. 

So jealous. Just down the hill... silence.

[smerfylicious]

8 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

Your trees are pre bent and conditioned for this just like Troutdales trees!  
Enjoy! 

Haha I talked to my neighbor a few weeks ago who said to be ready for 30+ mph throughout most of winter. Last year they had 80mph blizzard conditions with the February storm. Looked pretty cool.

I wonder why my property has no trees lol

[RentonHill]

3 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

So jealous. Just down the hill... silence.

Was sumner in that weird little finger gap that wasn’t supposed to get any wind with this first part??

[Cloud]

Wind picking up even more now… the last gust just rocked the house. That’s probably near 40mph-ish. 

[Kolk1604]

1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

Was sumner in that weird little finger gap that wasn’t supposed to get any wind with this first 

Yup sure looked like I was in the wind shadow lol

[MossMan]

Lots of pretty colors! 

[MossMan]

Snohomish Co numbers creeping up as well. 

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF Day 1

[Blizzard777]

Just now, smerfylicious said:

Haha I talked to my neighbor a few weeks ago who said to be ready for 30+ mph throughout most of winter. Last year they had 80mph blizzard conditions with the February storm. Looked pretty cool.

I wonder why my property has no trees lol

Lol,  In Troutdale all establish trees in the neighborhood did fine during the huge wind events but any trees we planted were usually taken out within 3 years!   I also planted one tree and had my daughter stand next to it for the photo so when she was and adult could go back to that same tree…..it didn’t last…snapped in half 2 years later  . Gave up on trees and stuck to low lying shrubs.

[RentonHill]

10 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Wind picking up even more now… the last gust just rocked the house. That’s probably near 40mph-ish. 

You were spot on! 39 at BFI

[Kolk1604]

5 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

00z ECMWF Day 1

Best part about daylight savings. We get this an hour earlier!

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2

[TT-SEA]

I can hear wind the roaring up on the ridge or maybe the roar is coming from the other side of the ridge in Maple Valley... but its not that windy here.    The angle has just enough SE component to spare us the worst... at least so far.     00Z ECMWF shows the east wind at its strongest right about now.  

[Cloud]

SEA with a decent sustained gusts of 30-40mph over the last hour.

[RentonHill]

Fun 24 hours for that latitude in oregon

[Cloud]

PSE outage map is expanding and mostly near the foothills. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3 rainfall totals (ending 4 PM Thursday) AR shifted south a bit it looks like from previous runs.

[Phil]

1 hour ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Well since people have posted the ECMWF weeklies and the CFS, I thought I would post last night's GFS long-ranger, starting at hour 364.  Not bad.

 

Now that’s a block.

[Cloud]

As with the wind and the warm front closing in… temps have risen to the mid-50s here. Models shows peak winds happening now, so once it dies down so will the temps… I don’t think it’ll go any higher than this. 
 

Current 55. 

[Kolk1604]

4 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 3 rainfall totals (ending 4 PM Thursday) AR shifted south a bit it looks like from previous runs.

Day 3.5

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4