PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion

[Blizzard777]

49 minutes ago, van city said:

Where the **** is Jesse? I knew something was missing here. 

We do not speak of his name 

[SouthHillFrosty]

Portland gets over 3 inches of rain. How is that a bust? Holy sheit run for @TacomaWaWx

[Blizzard777]

Man, what a fun weather day here!!!! 
45* .40 in the bucket 

[RentonHill]

tail of last string on its way out and the new storms coming in 

[Chewbacca Defense]

22 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

I was trying to log in and couldn’t get it to login and people were trying to figure out what was going on. I was like man I gotta email Fred and get on here and let them know before they show up at my work confusing my managers. My real name is Kurtis by the way that would’ve been helpful information if you guys showed up lmao.

Yeah it was getting to the point of about 5-10 weather geeks were going to be descending on the Tacoma Fred Meyer, running up to the manager "we are looking for one of your employees, major weather geek, has be been to work recently?  He hasn't been on the forum for days" 

manager: "what's his name?"

"TacomaWaWx"

Manager ...

 

 

No doubt, Fred Meyer managers deal with some crazy S**T but I think this would have topped them all.  Glad to hear everything is alright.  I initially chalked it up to a password issue as well until someone mentioned the personal issue going on in your life then I think it turned into an "OH CRAP" moment for a lot of folks, myself included.

 

Pretty cool to see this community rally to look out for one another yet again.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Portland gets over 3 inches of rain. How is that a bust? Holy sheit run for @TacomaWaWx

It's cut the totals here in half... With more cutting to come unfortunately. 

[Blizzard777]

C’MON….one of these lit up cells needs to stay in tacked and hit me!  I want more! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

These runs are all pretty close to being decent. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Probably the worst model runs I've experienced since the mid 80's.

[TacomaWaWx]

17 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Yeah it was getting to the point of about 5-10 weather geeks were going to be descending on the Tacoma Fred Meyer, running up to the manager "we are looking for one of your employees, major weather geek, has be been to work recently?  He hasn't been on the forum for days" 

manager: "what's his name?"

"TacomaWaWx"

Manager ...

 

 

No doubt, Fred Meyer managers deal with some crazy S**T but I think this would have topped them all.  Glad to hear everything is alright.  I initially chalked it up to a password issue as well until someone mentioned the personal issue going on in your life then I think it turned into an "OH CRAP" moment for a lot of folks, myself included.

 

Pretty cool to see this community rally to look out for one another yet again.

Lol they do know about my weather geekness at my work so they probably would’ve known it was me. I’m just glad I was able to log in before I was a missing persons case and on the back of a milk carton! 
this place is a very cool place we are family here. 

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

19 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Portland gets over 3 inches of rain. How is that a bust? Holy sheit run for @TacomaWaWx

Exhibit A. 00z, 6z, 12z, 18z. Notice a trend?

[Chewbacca Defense]

Very lame weather up here today.  It got a little breezy this morning before sunrise, sun came out for a bit, and now rain.  Awesome to see the dynamic weather in the South Sound, this thunderstorm loving southerner would love to see that drift this way. 

 

Currently 43 and .20" in  the rain bucket so far.

[Kolk1604]

49 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Portland gets over 3 inches of rain. How is that a bust? Holy sheit run for @TacomaWaWx

Lol just lol. I'm sure that would break some records

[RentonHill]

4 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

Lol just lol. I'm sure that would break some records

Its even crazier to think that its showing this in reasonable timeframe....most of that falls in the next 7 days! Here is just through Saturday noon (hour 100)

[Randyc321]

55 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Portland gets over 3 inches of rain. How is that a bust? Holy sheit run for @TacomaWaWx

If this verifies, the Skokomish is going way past flood stage. WAY past

[TacomaWaWx]

Just now, RentonHillTC said:

Its even crazier to think that its showing this in reasonable timeframe....most of that falls in the next 7 days! Here is just through Saturday noon (hour 100)

Looks like we’re well on our way to 3 consecutive wetter than normal months here. 

[TacomaWaWx]

It’s dark out and raining moderately but nothing too exciting right now. 

[Deweydog]

36 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Exhibit A. 00z, 6z, 12z, 18z. Notice a trend?

Hope it continues!

Flooding can be dangerous and deadly.

[RentonHill]

2 minutes ago, Randyc321 said:

If this verifies, the Skokomish is going way past flood stage. WAY past

Doesnt the Skokie flood pretty easily?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

18z GFS defaults to my favorite pattern in the long range. 

[Randyc321]

1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

Doesnt the Skokie flood pretty easily?

When somebody cries nearby the Skok floods. 

[Kolk1604]

5 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Its even crazier to think that its showing this in reasonable timeframe....most of that falls in the next 7 days! Here is just through Saturday noon (hour 100)

If that verifies I'll put my money on an December 08 repeat. Usually snow follows flooding rains around here

Or like in 06 Flooding---->Snow---->Hanukkah Eve

[yellowstone]

44 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Exhibit A. 00z, 6z, 12z, 18z. Notice a trend?

I...just...don't understand this mindset.  It reminds of last February when model runs were showing Seattle getting 25+ inches of snow.  While we would have been thrilled to see it, most of us knew the models were out of their minds and adjusted expectations accordingly so, when we got 10ish inches, we were still thrilled.  We didn't spend the entire time it was snowing outside (raining in this case) complaining (or repeatedly pointing it out if that's how you choose to characterize it) about that one model run or what could have been or talking about rug pulling. Let's say this trend continues and PDX underperforms and you end up with 2 inches.  That's still...well above average for one week.  You're already above average for this point in the month.  That's still going to help the drought (not end it but 7 inches wouldn't end it either as CA just showed us).  Like...enjoy that you're getting above average rain!  If you're making the case the models have a consistent wet bias for PDX, then when you see the models, keep that in mind.  I'm not sure why we need to keep rehashing it.  Finally, if this model trend were to keep going as it has, Seattle would get like 9 inches of rain. That's not happening either.  I would be shocked if they even get the 5 called out in the 18z. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I haven't really seen the GFS ensembles for a while, but I am more inclined to believe runs like the 18z that kind of keep the storm parade going. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

8 minutes ago, yellowstone said:

I...just...don't understand this mindset.  It reminds of last February when model runs were showing Seattle getting 25+ inches of snow.  While we would have been thrilled to see it, most of us knew the models were out of their minds and adjusted expectations accordingly so, when we got 10ish inches, we were still thrilled.  We didn't spend the entire time it was snowing outside (raining in this case) complaining (or repeatedly pointing it out if that's how you choose to characterize it) about that one model run or what could have been or talking about rug pulling. Let's say this trend continues and PDX underperforms and you end up with 2 inches.  That's still...well above average for one week.  You're already above average for this point in the month.  That's still going to help the drought (not end it but 7 inches wouldn't end it either as CA just showed us).  Like...enjoy that you're getting above average rain!  If you're making the case the models have a consistent wet bias for PDX, then when you see the models, keep that in mind.  I'm not sure why we need to keep rehashing it.  Finally, if this model trend were to keep going as it has, Seattle would get like 9 inches of rain. That's not happening either.  I would be shocked if they even get the 5 called out in the 18z. 

This is a good attitude. There is really nothing in the models right now showing that we will have a dry month, at worst we will end up around average. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just about 4" of rain on the month now. Average to date is 2.90", so we are well ahead of average. 

[LowerGarfield]

1 hour ago, Requiem said:

Idk, never had much of an issue with Jesse. I definitely caught the ire of some other conference-call fixated server members, but he was never too bad on my end.

Who was the member who kept saying they wanted to kill someone named Tim? I was just a lurker then.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

Who was the member who kept saying they wanted to kill someone named Tim? I was just a lurker then.

Jesse

[NWbyNW]

A wild weather day.  It started out unassuming, sunny and beautiful.   Then the wind came, sideways dumping rain, then it cleared up, got sunny again, then more rain, then it cleared up with a rainbow, then it got foggy and rainy, and it just kept going on and on like that.  Wind has been either really blustery, or dead silent.  At the moment it is the latter, but it changes every thirty minutes or so. 

 

I reduced the image size so they won't take up so much site memory. 

[The Blob]

1 hour ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Yeah it was getting to the point of about 5-10 weather geeks were going to be descending on the Tacoma Fred Meyer, running up to the manager "we are looking for one of your employees, major weather geek, has be been to work recently?  He hasn't been on the forum for days" 

manager: "what's his name?"

"TacomaWaWx"

Manager ...

 

 

No doubt, Fred Meyer managers deal with some crazy S**T but I think this would have topped them all.  Glad to hear everything is alright.  I initially chalked it up to a password issue as well until someone mentioned the personal issue going on in your life then I think it turned into an "OH CRAP" moment for a lot of folks, myself included.

 

Pretty cool to see this community rally to look out for one another yet again.

At least he now knows who his stalkers are.

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

9 minutes ago, yellowstone said:

I...just...don't understand this mindset.  It reminds of last February when model runs were showing Seattle getting 25+ inches of snow.  While we would have been thrilled to see it, most of us knew the models were out of their minds and adjusted expectations accordingly so, when we got 10ish inches, we were still thrilled.  We didn't spend the entire time it was snowing outside (raining in this case) complaining (or repeatedly pointing it out if that's how you choose to characterize it) about that one model run or what could have been or talking about rug pulling. Let's say this trend continues and PDX underperforms and you end up with 2 inches.  That's still...well above average for one week.  You're already above average for this point in the month.  That's still going to help the drought (not end it but 7 inches wouldn't end it either as CA just showed us).  Like...enjoy that you're getting above average rain!  If you're making the case the models have a consistent wet bias for PDX, then when you see the models, keep that in mind.  I'm not sure why we need to keep rehashing it.  Finally, if this model trend were to keep going as it has, Seattle would get like 9 inches of rain. That's not happening either.  I would be shocked if they even get the 5 called out in the 18z. 

First of all, you don’t need to understand my mindset. I don’t have to defend it to anybody. I don’t understand a lot of your mindsets either. I will never change your mind, and you will never change mine. Some people want warm and sunny. Some want windstorms. Some brutal cold. As they say, variety is the spice of life.

Secondly, you are assuming that under-performing at PDX is 2”. What if it’s 1”? What if it’s .5” When do you give me permission to be disappointed?

I would never root for damage to life, property, or nature. I just want it to consistently rain a sh*tload. I am tired of the models overpromising and underdelivering. Maybe I should speak at the next weather forecasting conference? 

 

[The Blob]

4 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

First of all, you don’t need to understand my mindset. I don’t have to defend it to anybody. I don’t understand a lot of your mindsets either. I will never change your mind, and you will never change mine. Some people want warm and sunny. Some want windstorms. Some brutal cold. As they say, variety is the spice of life.

Secondly, you are assuming that under-performing at PDX is 2”. What if it’s 1”? What if it’s .5” When do you give me permission to be disappointed?

I would never root for damage to life, property, or nature. I just want it to consistently rain a sh*tload. I am tired of the models overpromising and underdelivering. Maybe I should speak at the next weather forecasting conference? 

 

I like watching how the systems develop. They start out with way overpreformance and come down to an actual reality. Would we love for something historic to repeat itself? Sure, that would be amazing history to experience. I would honestly be happy if the only snow we get is flakes in the air this winter. 

[snow_wizard]

Looks like we have a consensus for above heights over the GOA in the near future.  Looks like a cold regime overall.  The 18z GFS has a nice period with highs in the low 40s and lows in the low 30s  Things are starting to come together.

[TT-SEA]

7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Looks like we have a consensus for above heights over the GOA in the near future.  Looks like a cold regime overall.  The 18z GFS has a nice period with highs in the low 40s and lows in the low 30s  Things are starting to come together.

I don't really see things coming together yet in terms of cold... I need to see something on the EPS.  The GFS has been wildly inconsistent and always seems to lean towards extreme amplification in the long range.    Here is the 12Z EPS... there is a transitory cold shot next week but its not a pattern change.    Matt and Phil say December.   

 

[snow_wizard]

More great analogs today.  Even 1978 showed up today which was one of the coldest / blockiest winters on record for the United States.  Seeing 1990 a lot which isn't surprising since it had the persistent area of above normal heights near the Date Line that we've been seeing this season.

[snow_wizard]

14 minutes ago, The Blob said:

I like watching how the systems develop. They start out with way overpreformance and come down to an actual reality. Would we love for something historic to repeat itself? Sure, that would be amazing history to experience. I would honestly be happy if the only snow we get is flakes in the air this winter. 

You have got to be kidding.  With the background state we have that would be a huge bust.

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

18z GFS defaults to my favorite pattern in the long range. 

So a January 1950 redux wouldn't be better in your opinion?  You do seem to have something against 150 blocking with very cold air.

[High Desert Mat?]

#Bringtheevilvillainback

[TT-SEA]

9 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

So a January 1950 redux wouldn't be better in your opinion?  You do seem to have something against 150 blocking with very cold air.

Andrew loves rain.  

[BLI snowman]

2 hours ago, Front Ranger said:

Yeah, but now the forum is lacking a qualified villain.

If it came down to a vote, I'd vote for him to come back...on mod preview to start.

Don't know if he could handle that, though.

It has been noticeably more tranquil since he left. I would hope that he's been reading the forum often enough the last two months to notice the difference. The tone has generally improved.