PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion

[snow drift]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

1999-2000 sticks in my mind as more of a worse case scenario. 

It was hot trash

[Phil]

10 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

1999-2000 sticks in my mind as more of a worse case scenario. 

IIRC that was one of the strongest +EPO winters in the satellite era. Monster cold across Alaska and the Beaufort.

Hopefully we won’t be repeating that anytime soon.

[Phil]

Yikes. No thank you.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7

[TigerWoodsLibido]

48 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm done looking for rain.  Now it's all about cold.  There certainly is some of that on this run.

It's never cold here anymore. The GFS has us finally making it back down into the 30s on Thanksgiving so that's nice. I figure I may as well root for ending the drought here first and hope that the city doesn't burn next summer. If we get cold and snow then great, but it seems highly unlikely given the trends.

[BLI snowman]

I'm sure the April 18-20, 2008 pattern would have been a major blast if it had been midwinter. Everything was ideal for us, just a bit too little too late. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

I'm sure the April 18-20, 2008 pattern would have been a major blast if it had been midwinter. Everything was ideal for us, just a bit too little too late. 

Snowed in Eugene! 

[Deweydog]

36 minutes ago, Phil said:

The second half of January had the same problem, though.

This is textbook rossby wave dispersion, with the in-situ +EPO/+NPO background state contributing to the lack of wholesale meridional displacement of the TPV.

Yes the GOA ridge looks “amplified” on the surface, but what is going on under the hood tells a much different story. This isn’t easy to convey visually, unfortunately.

Sounds very technical and brilliant, but it was a pattern ripe with potential. Not for some mega blast, but certainly something solid that would have changed hearts and minds. It doesn’t take much around here…

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Eugene had a nice snow in January 2008.

https://youtu.be/LfM9phy7RIg

https://youtu.be/Z8dabM4bJjE

[Gradient Keeper]

Now that we're in the 2nd week of November I don't want to wait 10+ days for arctic air and snow.... Who's with me.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9'er

[snow drift]

2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Now that we're in the 2nd week of November I don't want to wait 10+ days for arctic air and snow.... Who's with me.

Let's save it for December and January, but I would gladly take a November 1985 repeat.

[snow_wizard]

49 minutes ago, luminen said:

1971-1972 repeat incoming!

That one has been coming up as an analog from time to time.  Second year Nina, good solar match, and some other things going for it.

That winter was very decent for Seattle, but not as good for PDX.

[Dave]

12 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

I'm sure the April 18-20, 2008 pattern would have been a major blast if it had been midwinter. Everything was ideal for us, just a bit too little too late. 

I got 2 inches out of that! I was living at elevation though (750'). It hit at the perfect time in the middle of the night and melted out by 9:00am. Still was by far the latest I've ever seen flakes in this area.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

https://youtu.be/wCvNGe68ZKA

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 9'er

Decent.

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, bainbridgekid said:

Nine times out of ten that Winter’s large scale pattern would have resulted in a very good Winter here. Tiny details just kept screwing most people below 800 feet.

Top tier winter for Spokane and other eastside locations. Almost all other top tier winters there were considerably better on the westside.

[bainbridgekid]

5 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Now that we're in the 2nd week of November I don't want to wait 10+ days for arctic air and snow.... Who's with me.

I think of November 20th as being more or less when the chance of legitimate arctic air and snow begins. 10 days from tomorrow. I know there are exceptions but they are very rare for a reason.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Eugene had a nice snow in January 2008.

https://youtu.be/LfM9phy7RIg

https://youtu.be/Z8dabM4bJjE

I remember being up all night enjoying that one at my frat.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Top tier winter for Spokane and other eastside locations. Almost all other top tier winters there were considerably better on the westside.

I think 2007-08 was quite good just north of the Canadian border also.  Just slightly too little amplification.  I strongly feel this winter will be at least somewhat toned down on the EPO by comparison.  

[Deweydog]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Decent.

2007-08

[Gradient Keeper]

10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

[snow_wizard]

I really like the end of the ECMWF.  Another cold surface high to our NW.  Two different mini cold snaps on this run.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

2007-08

Most of the time the NE Pacific high pressure cell was centered further south that winter.

[Kolk1604]

8 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

I think of November 20th as being more or less when the chance of legitimate arctic air and snow begins. 10 days from tomorrow. I know there are exceptions but they are very rare for a reason.

Lol hopefully we see something like this with the 850s by Thanksgiving 

[snow_wizard]

The ECMWF spits out some decently chilly temps for the 6 to 10 day period, and blessfully little rainfall.

[snow_wizard]

6 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

Lol hopefully we see something like this with the 850s by Thanksgiving 

That was the best blast of this century actually.  Too bad it wasn't able to stick around a few days longer.  It dropped to 8 here on the coldest night and it was only clear for half the night.

[Cloud]

Jesus f’king christ…… didn’t have time for the forums for 1 day and missed all the juicy drama. Lol 

 

[snow_wizard]

18 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Really hope these model runs showing 8+ inches of rain don't come to fruition. We are sitting at 2.62 on the month already with heavy rain falling as I type this. Over the past 31 days, only 3 of those days have been completely dry. Out of curiosity I looked.... Sioux Falls average November rainfall? 1.22 inches. Average number of rainy days? Somewhere between 4-7.

Honestly that sounds soo much better in my opinion. I get tapped out of the constant rain after a while. That will be a welcome change in the weather department. 

Yeah...I get very tired of these long runs of wet days.  That's as much of a reason I like Central WA so much as the amount of snow they get.

[Kolk1604]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

That was the best blast of this century actually.  Too bad it wasn't able to stick around a few days longer.  It dropped to 8 here on the coldest night and it was only clear for half the night.

Lol wait when was this?

Right after Thanksgiving 2006, there was a night it dropped around 12. I worked in it that was fun 

[snow_wizard]

One thing I'm pretty impressed by is the amount of rain we've gotten over the past several days with temps in the low 40s.  That's pretty uncommon for this early.

Another thing is how consistently windy some places have been.  SEA had winds hit 40 again today.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

Lol wait when was this?

Right after Thanksgiving 2006, there was a night it dropped around 12. I worked in it that was fun 

Oh...I thought you had posted a graphic for Nov 2010.  I saw November and figured that was the only one that had numbers like that.

[GHweatherChris]

8 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Jesus f’king christ…… didn’t have time for the forums for 1 day and missed all the juicy drama. Lol 

 

You were literally reacting to stuff this afternoon.

[Kolk1604]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Oh...I thought you had posted a graphic for Nov 2010.  I saw November and figured that was the only one that had numbers like that.

Lol my bad. No just temps at 500mb. Waiting for 850s like that 

[Cloud]

4 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

You were literally reacting to stuff this afternoon.

Yeah...... And? I didn't have time after that. Wish I hadn't missed it. 

[Meatyorologist]

15 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Jesus f’king christ…… didn’t have time for the forums for 1 day and missed all the juicy drama. Lol 

 

Call off the Cloud search party everyone!

[Gradient Keeper]

Just a heads up. I am okay. I was not abducted and did not fall off a cliff. I know I realize I haven't posted anything in 28 minutes. I was busy on Craigslist looking to score. Who the hell is Craig anyways.

6z GFS in 2 hours

[Kolk1604]

Found it! EPS control anyone?