PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion

[GHweatherChris]

1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

Just a heads up. I am okay. I was not abducted and did not fall off a cliff. I know I realize I haven't posted anything in 28 minutes. I was busy on Craigslist looking to score. Who the hell is Craig anyways.

6z GFS in 2 hours

That part of Craigslist has been gone for a long while, a friend told me so!!!

[snow drift]

1 hour ago, Front Ranger said:

Top tier winter for Spokane and other eastside locations. Almost all other top tier winters there were considerably better on the westside.

74-75 was similar to 07-08. I'm not sure how the westside did during that one. 

[Kolk1604]

18 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

Found it! EPS control anyone?

Yeah think it's in the wrong spot. We want it more west right? Or northwest. 

Anyway last thing for tonight. Here's the end of the 00z EPS

[Meatyorologist]

16 minutes ago, snow drift said:

74-75 was similar to 07-08. I'm not sure how the westside did during that one. 

Very similar but a bit more productive. Big anafrontal event for SEA on Boxing Day, then decent onshore arctic events mid-Jan and late Jan with spits of snow. Some April snow on the 2nd as well.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z WRF-GFS How did I miss this earlier? Our first chilly east wind of the season with a possible Columbia Basin "cold pool" setting up. I would gladly take this. A cool air mass spills south of BC into northern Washington near or just after Day 6. East wind develops about 8-10 hours afterwards. It increases after Day 7 as cool, continental air slides into Northeast Washington. Of course this will probably change tomorrow, but it's worth keeping an eye on.

 

[bainbridgekid]

Snowpack certainly off to a great early start, especially in the Olympics reporting 1,100% of normal. This will take a hit the next week or so though as to be expected so early.

https://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/ftpref/data/water/wcs/gis/maps/wa_swepctnormal_update.pdf

Stevens has 22" on the ground and Snoqualmie is reporting 12"

wa_swepctnormal_update.pdf

[SilverFallsAndrew]

41.2 with 0.02” of rain since midnight. 

[LowerGarfield]

It was either Dec 2012 or Dec '13 when Cannon Beach and Seaside had a temperature in the mid to low teens. I wish I could remember the date, but it was quite surprising given we were on the coast.

[Tyler Mode]

Nice webcam views this morning...sad to see the smooth Rainier snow will be melting quite a bit

[AlTahoe]

8 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

Really hope these model runs showing 8+ inches of rain don't come to fruition. We are sitting at 2.62 on the month already with heavy rain falling as I type this. Over the past 31 days, only 3 of those days have been completely dry. Out of curiosity I looked.... Sioux Falls average November rainfall? 1.22 inches. Average number of rainy days? Somewhere between 4-7.

Honestly that sounds soo much better in my opinion. I get tapped out of the constant rain after a while. That will be a welcome change in the weather department. 

A small city in the North Bay Area Cazadero is at 23" of rain from Oct 1 till now.

Last year for the same period they had 0.10"

So they went from the driest fall ever recorded, to the wettest ever. Pretty wild swing. 

I am looking forward to the extended break coming up as it is soggy up here in Tahoe. 

 

[MossMan]

I still think the end of November is on the table…Along with the Turkey, Toferky, stuffing, green beans, and hopefully not the cranberries.

 

[LowerGarfield]

This morning we have 46F and sunny.

[The Blob]

34 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I still think the end of November is on the table…Along with the Turkey, Toferky, stuffing, green beans, and hopefully not the cranberries.

 

I still need to get my tofurky. 

[TT-SEA]

Some sun breaks and dry this morning... someone upstairs screwed up and forgot to turn on the hose.    I am confident that mistake will be remedied soon. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 hour ago, LowerGarfield said:

It was either Dec 2012 or Dec '13 when Cannon Beach and Seaside had a temperature in the mid to low teens. I wish I could remember the date, but it was quite surprising given we were on the coast.

2013. That was the last big arctic blast we had down this way. Though January 2017 wasn't bad, that was more low level stuff. 

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

Tim, the 12z ICON gives you about 20'' of rain in the next week. That won't happen, but the same pattern is shown on the GFS. Enjoy.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The first focus of the firehose has trended slightly south again. Looks like Salem should be in a good spot. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yeah that 2nd AR next week really slams NW Washington. 

[RentonHill]

6 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Total rain over the next 7 days per 12z GFS...

[LowerGarfield]

20 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

2013. That was the last big arctic blast we had down this way. Though January 2017 wasn't bad, that was more low level stuff. 

Yes Jan 2017 was cold. Was living on Camano that year and we had temps in the low 20s.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

Yes Jan 2017 was cold. Was living on Camano that year and we had temps in the low 20s.

December 2013

https://climate.usu.edu/mapServer/reports/e15daily.php?stn=USC00357809&year=2013&month=12&unit=EN&network=direct:ghcn&sidebar=0

January 2017

https://climate.usu.edu/mapServer/reports/e15daily.php?stn=USC00357809&year=2017&month=1&unit=EN&network=direct:ghcn&sidebar=0

 

January 2017 was a bit colder at the Silver Falls station, down the road from our place. We had a lot more snow in 2017 which probably helped. 

[RentonHill]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Matches up a little better with the ICON and GEM which dig that trough/cooler air further south. 

[MossMan]

37 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

By the time we hit D10, we are over a half of a foot of rain which would mean almost 9 inches of rain on the month when adding in what as already fallen... 

 

I’m very thankful to be in a lighter shade of red. 

[Chewbacca Defense]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

I’m very thankful to be in a lighter shade of red. 

I am just to the lower right of the 7.6 by Bellingham Bay, and I tend to do better than KBLI given my proximity to the foothills around Lake Whatcom....sooooo YIKES if this verifies! 

[TT-SEA]

1 hour ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Tim, the 12z ICON gives you about 20'' of rain in the next week. That won't happen, but the same pattern is shown on the GFS. Enjoy.

That might start to put a small dent in the drought here.   And if we get 50 inches of rain in November then we don't need any rain next spring and summer.   The trees will be all set.  

I joke... I know it doesn't work that way.     

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

That might start to put a small dent in the drought here.   And if we get 50 inches of rain in November then we don't need any rain next spring and summer.   The trees will be all set.  

The ICON and GEM are a lot better than the GFS for here. I think the GEFS is more in line with the ICON and GEM. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Nature is definitely making up for the ridiculous heat we had.

[RentonHill]

7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The ICON and GEM are a lot better than the GFS for here. I think the GEFS is more in line with the ICON and GEM. 

here is 12z GEFS total precip thru 240

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Nature is definitely making up for the ridiculous heat we had.

3 days of heat... weeks of rain.   That is not a fair trade off.     

But the reality is that November rain doesn't help much if we have another hot and dry summer.  

[RentonHill]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

3 days of heat... weeks of rain.   That is not a fair trade off.     

But the reality is that November rain doesn't help much if we have another hot and dry summer.  

[Omegaraptor]

11 hours ago, DJ Droppin said:

10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

That rain/snow ratio in the Oregon Cascades is pitiful lol

Good time to remember that a warm/boring November is a good sign

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

In the big picture... a more meaningful offset to the heat this past summer would be a wet, cool summer next year.     I guess it will depend on the ENSO evolution.  

[RentonHill]

3 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

That rain/snow ratio in the Oregon Cascades is pitiful lol

Good time to remember that a warm/boring November is a good sign

Does it have to be boring? I know we looked at Temp anomaly correlation to later goodies, but would precip anomalies signify anything? 

[FroYoBro]

9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

3 days of heat... weeks of rain.   That is not a fair trade off.     

But the reality is that November rain doesn't help much if we have another hot and dry summer.  

Wait, it rains here? 

[RentonHill]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

In the big picture... a more meaningful offset to the heat this past summer would be a wet, cool summer next year.     I guess it will depend on the ENSO evolution.  

oh i know. That GIF was me agreeing with you

[Omegaraptor]

1 minute ago, FroYoBro said:

Wait, it rains here? 

North of the Santiam River, yeah it does

[Omegaraptor]

2 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Does it have to be boring? I know we looked at Temp anomaly correlation to later goodies, but would precip anomalies signify anything? 

I don’t believe there’s much of a link with precip? Could be wrong though

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

I don’t believe there’s much of a link with precip? Could be wrong though

Could be anecdotal... but there does seem to be some correlation between very wet periods and cold/snow a few weeks later.  

[snow drift]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

In the big picture... a more meaningful offset to the heat this past summer would be a wet, cool summer next year.     I guess it will depend on the ENSO evolution.  

I just want an average summer. Cool summers are horrible and so are hot summers.