Gradient Keeper Posted November 24, 2021 Report Share Posted November 24, 2021 Hopefully by Turkey night Day 6 to 6.5 we'll see a similar ridge merger, cut-off low/kona, with the block edged closer to ~155-150 W. The block on tonight's run/00z was at ~160 W which can be ideal with the right amplification and sharp downstream ridge over the south central/southeast US. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 24, 2021 Report Share Posted November 24, 2021 6z GFS running! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 24, 2021 Report Share Posted November 24, 2021 Someone should text or call Jim and tell him all is well King EURO saved the day/night. Lol 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted November 24, 2021 Report Share Posted November 24, 2021 2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: 6z GFS running! Look at that! The GFS and the EPS running side by side Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 24, 2021 Report Share Posted November 24, 2021 6z GFS Day 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted November 24, 2021 Report Share Posted November 24, 2021 1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said: Someone should text or call Jim and tell him all is well King EURO saved the day/night. Lol We should all go knock on his door. I bet his wife would appreciate that 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted November 24, 2021 Report Share Posted November 24, 2021 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 24, 2021 Report Share Posted November 24, 2021 4 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said: That progression is $$$$ The block should continue to slide east slowly and cold trough drop south-southeastward over us. Then add an eventual south central/southeastern US ridge. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 24, 2021 Report Share Posted November 24, 2021 Day 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted November 24, 2021 Report Share Posted November 24, 2021 EPS Day 8 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 24, 2021 Report Share Posted November 24, 2021 1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said: EPS Day 8 Energy seems to be cutting off nicely. Need to see Day 8.5 to 9.5 though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 24, 2021 Report Share Posted November 24, 2021 Back to 6z GFS - Day 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted November 24, 2021 Report Share Posted November 24, 2021 @DJ Droppin idk what u did but you cursed Oregon snow totals lol 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 24, 2021 Report Share Posted November 24, 2021 1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said: @DJ Droppin idk what u did but you cursed Oregon snow totals lol 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted November 24, 2021 Report Share Posted November 24, 2021 5 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Energy seems to be cutting off nicely. Need to see Day 8.5 to 9.5 though. Day 7-10 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 24, 2021 Report Share Posted November 24, 2021 Day 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 24, 2021 Report Share Posted November 24, 2021 1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said: Day 7-10 Ugh. No ridge merger... Looks like the 00z GEFS... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted November 24, 2021 Report Share Posted November 24, 2021 Eff 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 24, 2021 Report Share Posted November 24, 2021 6z is a disaster just like the 00z GFS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 24, 2021 Report Share Posted November 24, 2021 Good night. Onto 12z runs! Things can and will change, probably several times between now and Friday/Saturday. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted November 24, 2021 Report Share Posted November 24, 2021 Ik it doesn't deliver any snow but these easterlies are pretty solid 2 Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 24, 2021 Author Report Share Posted November 24, 2021 06z OP could be another outlier on its ensemble suite. We'll find out soon 2 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted November 24, 2021 Report Share Posted November 24, 2021 EPS stuck at hour 330... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 24, 2021 Report Share Posted November 24, 2021 Unfortunately 6z GEFS does not offer a pattern for Cold and SNOW in the lowland. In the mountains it does which isn't bad by any means. We'll see what 12z runs offer later this morning. We know how this goes every Fall/Winter, or well, we should by now. Never get emotionally invested or your hopes up when the models are 10+ days out, or even 7. Ever. Not even a little. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 24, 2021 Report Share Posted November 24, 2021 2 hours ago, Requiem said: Ik it doesn't deliver any snow but these easterlies are pretty solid Yeah at this point should the models be latching onto an unfortunatel crummy trend, I would welcome this most definitely. Far too early to make that call though. 12z GFS in 2 hours 13 minutes 12z ECMWF in 4 hours 23 minutes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 24, 2021 Report Share Posted November 24, 2021 6z GEFS - As I mentioned no appreciable lowland Cold and SNOW! but the pattern looks very La Nina with at times chilly rains and good mountain snows long range. It could be worse Seattle Portland Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 24, 2021 Report Share Posted November 24, 2021 I feel like I’m living a nightmare right now... These runs are horrific. 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 24, 2021 Report Share Posted November 24, 2021 10 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: I feel like I’m living a nightmare right now... These runs are horrific. That they are, but we know how this goes, and we've seen both awful runs or trends flip back in our favor very favorably, or what looked like good runs or trends even up until Day 4-5 flip the other direction to ruin and the cold slides east, or pattern ends up a bit too progressive. Model riding is not for the faint of heart. We are seasoned veterans so this shouldn't feel like anything, but it does lol. Think about how long we waited last Winter. Think Cold and SNOW! until the 2nd freaking week of February. That was a long, difficult journey. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Blob Posted November 24, 2021 Report Share Posted November 24, 2021 Looks like I missed another emotional roller-coaster. 1 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 24, 2021 Report Share Posted November 24, 2021 9 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: That they are, but we know how this goes, and we've seen both awful runs or trends flip back in our favor very favorably, or what looked like good runs or trends even up until Day 4-5 flip the other direction to ruin and the cold slides east, or pattern ends up a bit too progressive. Model riding is not for the faint of heart. We are seasoned veterans so this shouldn't feel like anything, but it does lol. Think about how long we waited last Winter. Think Cold and SNOW! until the 2nd freaking week of February. That was a long, difficult journey. Well it didn’t even snow here the second week of February last winter. I know it was a great event for many so I try not to complain about it... But a historic ice storm is like getting a brick of coal in your stocking. Last winter was pretty mild and boring. If we hadn’t had those 3 days in February it would have gone down as an all time dud. But I appreciate the words of encouragement. 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 24, 2021 Report Share Posted November 24, 2021 1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Well it didn’t even snow here the second week of February last winter. I know it was a great event for many so I try not to complain about it... But a historic ice storm is like getting a brick of coal in your stocking. Last winter was pretty mild and boring. If we hadn’t had those 3 days in February it would have gone down as an all time dud. But I appreciate the words of encouragement. That's true, and yeah the Winter would have been a total loss. From a model riding perspective this 'feels' an awful lot like 2008 where models were honestly about as bad and dismal as you can get all through November and to I believe December 3rd or 4th? then it switched very suddenly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 24, 2021 Report Share Posted November 24, 2021 38 here this morning... and there should be no rain during the daylight hours today. That feels like a dream during this wettest fall in history. And it will be the wettest fall ever by next week. 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshua Lake Oswego Posted November 24, 2021 Report Share Posted November 24, 2021 Is this a joke? 2 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 24, 2021 Report Share Posted November 24, 2021 19 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said: Is this a joke? Larger map below. Its not really that important though... there is huge pattern change coming and runs will be wildly different. This is not going to be a stable situation in the model world like we have seen for the last month or so. 2 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 24, 2021 Report Share Posted November 24, 2021 Frosty morning... at least it feels like winter... 3 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 24, 2021 Report Share Posted November 24, 2021 Hopefully this was just a false start by the models and the real stuff comes right before Christmas! Otherwise it will be the January to remember? 1 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chewbacca Defense Posted November 24, 2021 Report Share Posted November 24, 2021 12 hours ago, TheNewCulverJosh said: Love coming back every winter and seeing the same reactions to every control, ensemble, GOLU, SNAFU, PIKACHU models from you guys. You never fail to produce the goods. This may be the best winter model-riding year ever!!!!! Keep it going, popcorn is in hand. You forgot the BOHICA model, that one seems to be the best performer over the course of a winter. 1 1 Quote Britton Rd Bellingham Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWABELLI103?cm_ven=localwx_pwsdash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Blob Posted November 24, 2021 Report Share Posted November 24, 2021 Foggy this morning and 38. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted November 24, 2021 Report Share Posted November 24, 2021 45 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Larger map below. Its not really that important though... there is huge pattern change coming and runs will be wildly different. This is not going to be a stable situation in the model world like we have seen for the last month or so. Snow in Georgia and maybe Florida panhandle? 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LowerGarfield Posted November 24, 2021 Report Share Posted November 24, 2021 Cool morning here. 36F and clear. 1 Quote Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA: 2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24. Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24 Days with trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel), 4/5/24 (T) First Freeze: 10/27/2023 Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24) Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24) Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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