PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion

[Gradient Keeper]

Hopefully by Turkey night Day 6 to 6.5 we'll see a similar ridge merger, cut-off low/kona, with the block edged closer to ~155-150 W. The block on tonight's run/00z was at ~160 W which can be ideal with the right amplification and sharp downstream ridge over the south central/southeast US.

[Gradient Keeper]

6z GFS running!

[Gradient Keeper]

Someone should text or call Jim and tell him all is well King EURO saved the day/night. Lol

[Kolk1604]

2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

6z GFS running!

Look at that! The GFS and the EPS running side by side

[Gradient Keeper]

6z GFS Day 3

[SouthHillFrosty]

1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

Someone should text or call Jim and tell him all is well King EURO saved the day/night. Lol

We should all go knock on his door. I bet his wife would appreciate that

[RentonHill]

[Gradient Keeper]

4 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

That progression is $$$$ The block should continue to slide east slowly and cold trough drop south-southeastward over us. Then add an eventual south central/southeastern US ridge.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5

 

[Kolk1604]

EPS Day 8

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said:

EPS Day 8

Energy seems to be cutting off nicely. Need to see Day 8.5 to 9.5 though.

[Gradient Keeper]

Back to 6z GFS - Day 6

[SouthHillFrosty]

@DJ Droppin idk what u did but you cursed Oregon snow totals lol

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

@DJ Droppin idk what u did but you cursed Oregon snow totals lol

[Kolk1604]

5 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Energy seems to be cutting off nicely. Need to see Day 8.5 to 9.5 though.

Day 7-10

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said:

Day 7-10

Ugh. No ridge merger... Looks like the 00z GEFS...

[RentonHill]

Eff

[Gradient Keeper]

6z is a disaster just like the 00z GFS

[Gradient Keeper]

Good night. Onto 12z runs! Things can and will change, probably several times between now and Friday/Saturday.

[Requiem]

Ik it doesn't deliver any snow but these easterlies are pretty solid

 

 

[Meatyorologist]

06z OP could be another outlier on its ensemble suite. We'll find out soon

[Kolk1604]

EPS stuck at hour 330... 

[Gradient Keeper]

Unfortunately 6z GEFS does not offer a pattern for Cold and SNOW in the lowland. In the mountains it does which isn't bad by any means. We'll see what 12z runs offer later this morning. We know how this goes every Fall/Winter, or well, we should by now. Never get emotionally invested or your hopes up when the models are 10+ days out, or even 7. Ever. Not even a little.

[Gradient Keeper]

2 hours ago, Requiem said:

Ik it doesn't deliver any snow but these easterlies are pretty solid

 

 

Yeah at this point should the models be latching onto an unfortunatel crummy trend, I would welcome this most definitely. Far too early to make that call though.

12z GFS in 2 hours 13 minutes
12z ECMWF in 4 hours 23 minutes

[Gradient Keeper]

6z GEFS - As I mentioned no appreciable lowland Cold and SNOW! but the pattern looks very La Nina with at times chilly rains and good mountain snows long range. It could be worse

Seattle

Portland

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I feel like I’m living a nightmare right now... These runs are horrific.

[Gradient Keeper]

10 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I feel like I’m living a nightmare right now... These runs are horrific.

That they are, but we know how this goes, and we've seen both awful runs or trends flip back in our favor very favorably, or what looked like good runs or trends even up until Day 4-5 flip the other direction to ruin and the cold slides east, or pattern ends up a bit too progressive. Model riding is not for the faint of heart. We are seasoned veterans so this shouldn't feel like anything, but it does lol. Think about how long we waited last Winter. Think Cold and SNOW! until the 2nd freaking week of February. That was a long, difficult journey.

[The Blob]

Looks like I missed another emotional roller-coaster.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

9 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

That they are, but we know how this goes, and we've seen both awful runs or trends flip back in our favor very favorably, or what looked like good runs or trends even up until Day 4-5 flip the other direction to ruin and the cold slides east, or pattern ends up a bit too progressive. Model riding is not for the faint of heart. We are seasoned veterans so this shouldn't feel like anything, but it does lol. Think about how long we waited last Winter. Think Cold and SNOW! until the 2nd freaking week of February. That was a long, difficult journey.

Well it didn’t even snow here the second week of February last winter. I know it was a great event for many so I try not to complain about it... But a historic ice storm is like getting a brick of coal in your stocking. Last winter was pretty mild and boring. If we hadn’t had those 3 days in February it would have gone down as an all time dud. But I appreciate the words of encouragement.

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Well it didn’t even snow here the second week of February last winter. I know it was a great event for many so I try not to complain about it... But a historic ice storm is like getting a brick of coal in your stocking. Last winter was pretty mild and boring. If we hadn’t had those 3 days in February it would have gone down as an all time dud. But I appreciate the words of encouragement.

That's true, and yeah the Winter would have been a total loss. From a model riding perspective this 'feels' an awful lot like 2008 where models were honestly about as bad and dismal as you can get all through November and to I believe December 3rd or 4th? then it switched very suddenly.

[TT-SEA]

38 here this morning... and there should be no rain during the daylight hours today.    That feels like a dream during this wettest fall in history.   And it will be the wettest fall ever by next week.

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

Is this a joke?

 

[TT-SEA]

19 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Is this a joke?

 

Larger map below.    Its not really that important though... there is huge pattern change coming and runs will be wildly different.     This is not going to be a stable situation in the model world like we have seen for the last month or so.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Frosty morning... at least it feels like winter...

[MossMan]

Hopefully this was just a false start by the models and the real stuff comes right before Christmas! Otherwise it will be the January to remember?

[Chewbacca Defense]

12 hours ago, TheNewCulverJosh said:

Love coming back every winter and seeing the same reactions to every control, ensemble, GOLU, SNAFU, PIKACHU models from you guys.

You never fail to produce the goods.  This may be the best winter model-riding year ever!!!!!  Keep it going, popcorn is in hand.

You forgot the BOHICA model, that one seems to be the best performer over the course of a winter.

[The Blob]

Foggy this morning and 38.

[Anti Marine Layer]

45 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Larger map below.    Its not really that important though... there is huge pattern change coming and runs will be wildly different.     This is not going to be a stable situation in the model world like we have seen for the last month or so.  

Snow in Georgia and maybe Florida panhandle?

[LowerGarfield]

Cool morning here. 36F and clear.