Phil Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 17 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Tons of potential ahead and I'll say it, as good as December 2008, but will that potential be realized. Yes, of course. Did you think I was going to say, "Nah, not really?" no chance. What fun would that be? NOPE! C'MON!!!! Ya gotta believe! 00z ECMWF 57 minutes I have faith in you. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 At the end of the day this might be the best we can do over the next 2-3 weeks. At least we stop torching in about 7-10 days. 1 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 Rain and temps in the 50s on Monday according to the GEM. I wonder how quickly the remnants of our glaciers can be washed away? 2 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 This is better though... 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Outpost54 Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 Now that the GFS has pulled back a bit, watch the 00z Euro flip and start showing major snow this weekend/early next week. I've got a weird feeling about this run, lol. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 PDX down to 56. Sub-50 intro to DECEMBER looking unlikely. 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 8 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said: What's the most pages for one month? I mean last February had 396 pages split into three threads. Not sure how many February 2019 had. 2 Quote Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: This is better though... This is great. Yeah I thought at Day 5.5 it was showing good signs for possible improvement. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownerd3000 Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 8 minutes ago, Deweydog said: 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,069 I thought it would be 42069 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 Patience. Pretend you're fishing. Fishing for Cold and SNOW!!!! 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 12 minutes ago, Deweydog said: But inversions and the cold anomalies they bring? It might just be a quick hitter, kinda like a cheap fling!! A hahahaha 1 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SalemDuck Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 Big block in the long range. Need to move that east about 15 degrees 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 Just now, Phishy Wx said: Pretty good SE ridge! Teleconnections 4 LIFE! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 3 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said: 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SalemDuck Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 The GEM made some nice improvements 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 GEM Day 10. Incredible potential ahead! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 37 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: I think we can both agree that some of us take this stuff seriously. Unfortunately nature is very chaotic. If you are being honest... you have to admit that you put in lots of work to prove your desired outcome. You don't spend hours posting and analyzing to tell us about things you don't like. And to be honest... neither do I. Most of us aren't really objective. Phil might be closer to that because he has no horse in our race. And Matt has always seemed very objective to me which is why we all seem to want to know his thoughts. 4 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 5 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Pretty good SE ridge! Teleconnections 4 LIFE! I’m only 88 miles from the blue! 2 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 10 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said: I thought it would be 42069 42 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 1 hour ago, snow_wizard said: Please tell me you have analogs besides 2007. That is really short sighted if you don't. As I've mentioned that November was totally different here observed weather wise. 1999 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 Wow I was only gone a few hours I missed a lot! 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post MossMan Posted December 1, 2021 Popular Post Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said: Wow I was only gone a few hours I missed a lot! This is the time of the year my wife starts getting slightly annoyed that I constantly have my face buried in my phone haha! 6 1 3 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 Looks like we’re gonna fall short of the wettest S/O/N with 19.21” of rain…record is 2016 with 19.39”. Pretty close though. Very warm finish to the month…last 5 days torched 55/52 today 0.11” of rain today and 9.72” this month. 1 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 Just now, MossMan said: This is the time of the year my wife starts getting slightly annoyed that I constantly have my face buried in my phone haha! 1999/2007 analogs…winter cancels…”communist news network” this forums almost never a dull place especially this time of year. 3 2 1 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 17 minutes ago, Front Ranger said: 42 442 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 5 minutes ago, MossMan said: This is the time of the year my wife starts getting slightly annoyed that I constantly have my face buried in my phone haha! Yep! Lots of yep, oh, and simple fast painless answers from me when she's talking to me. 2 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 Just now, Mr Marine Layer said: 442 Oldsmobile car from the 60's and 70's, mom and dad had one. 2 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 7 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said: Looks like we’re gonna fall short of the wettest S/O/N with 19.21” of rain…record is 2016 with 19.39”. Pretty close though. Very warm finish to the month…last 5 days torched 55/52 today 0.11” of rain today and 9.72” this month. So close! 2 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 Not sure if this interests anyone but check out these localized temperature variations. Upper 20s to low 50s just a few miles apart. Nocturnal downslope winds have been common lately, causing all kinds of weird anomalies. http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/?&zoom=11&scroll_zoom=false¢er=39.248473233548935,-77.55867004394533&boundaries=false,false,false,false,false,false,false,false,false,false,false&tab=observation&hazard=true&hazard_type=all&hazard_opacity=60&obs=true&obs_type=weather&elements=temp,dew,wind,gust&temp_filter=-80,130&gust_filter=0,150&rh_filter=0,100&elev_filter=-300,14000&precip_filter=0.01,18&obs_popup=true&obs_density=10&obs_provider= 4 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 Looks like we’re going to finish this month with a +2.3 departure and about 150% of normal rainfall. 25/30 days had rainfall this month. This fall will end up slightly warmer than normal thanks to November with about 150% of the average rainfall. Very much ready for winter! 1 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlTahoe Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 1 hour ago, Phil said: I have three analog pools I’m looking at, actually. The pool containing 1974, 1999, 2005, and 2007 has performed the best thus far. Still time to shake things up. But it ain’t gonna happen until the winter solstice, at earliest. First half of December is already shot. We are tracking 1999 and 2007 perfectly. 2005 featured the warm Ar's into California in Dec so that is already off the table. I am hoping for 2007 since 1999 sucked 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 3 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said: Yep! Lots of yep, oh, and simple fast painless answers from me when she's talking to me. If we ever have a forum gathering... we would probably all just be sitting around a table staring at our phones. Maybe even talking to each other on here while we are there. 4 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 1 minute ago, TT-SEA said: So close! Still the wettest fall in history for most of the western WA…not as much rain here which is fine with me. 2 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 1 minute ago, TT-SEA said: If we ever have a forum gathering... we would probably all just be sitting around a table staring at our phones. If there’s a forum meet up I’m not sure where it would be…TWLs house so we can get to see how bad it really is in Eugene or a more centralized location like Dewey’s house. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 2 minutes ago, AlTahoe said: We are tracking 1999 and 2007 perfectly. 2005 featured the warm Ar's into California in Dec so that is already off the table. I am hoping for 2007 since 1999 sucked Interesting that you are tracking perfectly with both 1999 and 2007. This month has been pretty close to 1999 up here in terms of tangible weather. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 3 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said: If there’s a forum meet up I’m not sure where it would be…TWLs house so we can get to see how bad it really is in Eugene or a more centralized location like Dewey’s house. Yeah... Matt's house would be perfect. But he likes to remain anonymous for professional reasons which is a good call. 1 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 1, 2021 Report Share Posted December 1, 2021 Man if we can somehow avoid avoid a +ENSO transition in 2022, next winter would be in rare company as 3rd year niña/+QBO and likely -PMM. All dreamland for now but it’s possible. 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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