Tom Posted December 10, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 10, 2021 Is there a "Solstice Storm" brewing??? The long awaited "solstice surge" is increasing looking probable and the "kicker" that'll that set up this pattern change is the likelihood of a storm system coming out of the Rockies (another CO LOW???)...but with blocking developing over the top (Canadian HP's) #seedthecold...this should be an eventful period setting up shop across our Sub. As mentioned before, the devil of a SER is either gonna be a blessing or curse for those of us across the eastern Sub. It'll be a nail biter IMHO, esp over here but at least #realwinter is looking promising of returning in DEC when it counts, none more-so, then during the holiday season. The + signs are that the teleconnections are all lining up in sync and we will finally see a return of the -NAO block alongside a -EPO. It's fascinating watching the models go right to the pattern that transpired in mid Oct as the N ATL block, locked in for days and days. Look at what the 0z GEFS is suggesting as it shows a trough to break off south of Greenland which in turn "pumps" the ridge and...viola...we have the return of the Greenland Block. This literally happened the same exact way back in OCT if my memory serves me right. This STRAT animation is golden... Finally, I'll end this post commenting on the BSR for early Jan....if both the EPS/GEFS are correct, the 1st week of JAN looks intriguing as I see a dominant SW Flow and what should be a parade of storm system, the increased possibility of a Blizzard (yup, I'm calling it)...the period to watch is Jan 7th-11th.... 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted December 10, 2021 Report Share Posted December 10, 2021 There is still a trace of snow on the ground here at my house. The overnight low here was 28 and with cloudy skies it is now 34. Next week still looks to be very warm by December standards. The average maximum temperature for December at Grand Rapids is 54. In the last 30 years it has reached 60 or better 8 times in December. In that 30 year span it has not reached at least 50 only 5 times. The range in the last 30 years has been from 37 in 2000 to 69 in 2001. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted December 10, 2021 Report Share Posted December 10, 2021 Funny how the real cold keeps getting pushed farther and farther out on the GFS. Another head fake on winter coming? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 10, 2021 Report Share Posted December 10, 2021 12Z GFS is way south and also way more progressive with the storm next week. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted December 10, 2021 Report Share Posted December 10, 2021 If I remember, I joked about them upgrading this to Moderate. Totally my fault! 1 3 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gimmesnow Posted December 10, 2021 Report Share Posted December 10, 2021 Feeling really pessimistic about the future of my ski hills the next week. If they can't make it through this heat wave and rain, GFS says no meaningful snow making until December 22nd. Gonna really hurt them if they are forced to be closed over some of kid's winter break. Even if they make it, it's just going to be a giant sheet of ice. I was hoping the rain would miss Portage and save Cascade but not even that looks good. I guess on the bright side the people who work at the hill could use a break from everything, considering what chaos last year was. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 10, 2021 Report Share Posted December 10, 2021 8 hours ago, Tom said: Is there a "Solstice Storm" brewing??? The long awaited "solstice surge" is increasing looking probable and the "kicker" that'll that set up this pattern change is the likelihood of a storm system coming out of the Rockies (another CO LOW???)...but with blocking developing over the top (Canadian HP's) #seedthecold...this should be an eventful period setting up shop across our Sub. As mentioned before, the devil of a SER is either gonna be a blessing or curse for those of us across the eastern Sub. It'll be a nail biter IMHO, esp over here but at least #realwinter is looking promising of returning in DEC when it counts, none more-so, then during the holiday season. The + signs are that the teleconnections are all lining up in sync and we will finally see a return of the -NAO block alongside a -EPO. It's fascinating watching the models go right to the pattern that transpired in mid Oct as the N ATL block, locked in for days and days. Look at what the 0z GEFS is suggesting as it shows a trough to break off south of Greenland which in turn "pumps" the ridge and...viola...we have the return of the Greenland Block. This literally happened the same exact way back in OCT if my memory serves me right. This STRAT animation is golden... Finally, I'll end this post commenting on the BSR for early Jan....if both the EPS/GEFS are correct, the 1st week of JAN looks intriguing as I see a dominant SW Flow and what should be a parade of storm system, the increased possibility of a Blizzard (yup, I'm calling it)...the period to watch is Jan 7th-11th.... Solstice storm you say. Look at this, right on cue with the LRC and is being modeled like the Oct version. With the blocking showing up I'm getting confident it will get cold. White Christmas for KC if we can keep it on the ground. @jaster220 @Niko you guys have had a magnet early on for some winter weather, could be headed your way as well. 1 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 10, 2021 Report Share Posted December 10, 2021 1 hour ago, Clinton said: Solstice storm you say. Look at this, right on cue with the LRC and is being modeled like the Oct version. With the blocking showing up I'm getting confident it will get cold. White Christmas for KC if we can keep it on the ground. @jaster220 @Niko you guys have had a magnet early on for some winter weather, could be headed your way as well. That'd be great Clinton. For all of us S&E Peeps. Follow-on LES down Lk Mich looks classic too! Hopefully, our ground temps will have lowered a bit by then as well. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 10, 2021 Report Share Posted December 10, 2021 The Euro shows boring nw flow taking over after the record warmth next week... not a flake of snow in sight for many of us. 1 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 10, 2021 Report Share Posted December 10, 2021 I'm hearing a bit of light thunder from the thin lines moving through. Unfortunately, these showers are lasting only a minute or two. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted December 10, 2021 Report Share Posted December 10, 2021 unable to see instability maps, but if today's 12Z Euro is correct, eastern Nebraska would definitely have to watch out for severe weather. Of course doesn't take much to get a classic low instability/high shear set up this time of year. LLJ of 70+ knots with a temp around 70 and dews in the 50s. On December 15th.... Wednesday: Despite some timing differences, the 00z global are in reasonably good agreement in suggesting that a potent shortwave trough and associated surface low will move through the region on Wed. That system could bring an array of impacts to the area, including the potential for high winds, severe-convective and winter weather. Stay tuned. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted December 10, 2021 Report Share Posted December 10, 2021 Current 79/67 in Memphis. That's insane for December. Several years ago hit like 80 on Christmas, but that was also insane. 4 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted December 10, 2021 Report Share Posted December 10, 2021 3 hours ago, snowstorm83 said: Current 79/67 in Memphis. That's insane for December. Several years ago hit like 80 on Christmas, but that was also insane. Saw some all time records broke across the south today too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianJK Posted December 10, 2021 Report Share Posted December 10, 2021 8 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said: Funny how the real cold keeps getting pushed farther and farther out on the GFS. Another head fake on winter coming? Just give it 2 weeks. BIG changes coming, EPIC if you will 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted December 10, 2021 Report Share Posted December 10, 2021 Pulled a couple of soundings for next Wednesday evening. Very impressive shear profiles and even a lot of low level CAPE with values near 100. These are from 0Z and 03Z Thursday, so after dark and storms would be absolutely hauling. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 11, 2021 Report Share Posted December 11, 2021 Major severe weather outbreak occurring in eastern MO right now. It's a bad time of day for tornadoes in a area that has a long history of big tornadoes. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted December 11, 2021 Report Share Posted December 11, 2021 Massive confirmed tornado in northeast Arkansas 2 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 11, 2021 Report Share Posted December 11, 2021 4 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said: Massive confirmed tornado in northeast Arkansas The amount of area being impacted is more in line with something you would see in early May. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted December 11, 2021 Report Share Posted December 11, 2021 Huge drop on the correlation coefficient. Springtime looking storm indeed! 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted December 11, 2021 Report Share Posted December 11, 2021 Same tornado STILL on the ground 2 hours later 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted December 11, 2021 Report Share Posted December 11, 2021 Major outbreak unfolding; I'll post when there's t'storms here. I'm a little caught up using just one form of social media. 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted December 11, 2021 Report Share Posted December 11, 2021 Oh baby! 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted December 11, 2021 Report Share Posted December 11, 2021 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted December 11, 2021 Report Share Posted December 11, 2021 Tornado with debris ball 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 11, 2021 Report Share Posted December 11, 2021 5 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said: Tornado with debris ball Seems only right that this would happen in the December after a dud of a severe wx season. 2 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 11, 2021 Report Share Posted December 11, 2021 Tornado emergency in Benton. 1 1 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 11, 2021 Report Share Posted December 11, 2021 Video of the wedge tornado tonight near Hayti, MO. 2 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 11, 2021 Report Share Posted December 11, 2021 Ironic the SPC's MCD# for this one.. 1 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted December 11, 2021 Report Share Posted December 11, 2021 Same storm producing violent tornadoes for over 4 hours now 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 11, 2021 Report Share Posted December 11, 2021 13 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said: Same storm producing violent tornadoes for over 4 hours now I believe this is the same storm that killed 2 in an Arkansas nursing home tonight it's been going for awhile. Also people trapped in Amazon Facility near St. Louis. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted December 11, 2021 Report Share Posted December 11, 2021 Yep, same storm 3 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted December 11, 2021 Report Share Posted December 11, 2021 27 minutes ago, jaster220 said: Ironic the SPC's MCD# for this one.. Is this May or December? 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 11, 2021 Report Share Posted December 11, 2021 It's still going... 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 11, 2021 Report Share Posted December 11, 2021 Tornado is gone, looks like the rotation is gone too. Good thing it happened before the storm hit the Louisville suburbs. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 11, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 11, 2021 4 hours ago, Clinton said: Video of the wedge tornado tonight near Hayti, MO. That is freakin' scary...I can't imagine livin' through a TOR outbreak like this esp at night. God Speed to all who have been effected. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted December 11, 2021 Report Share Posted December 11, 2021 Line is approaching! So far Boyd County is not included in any watches but there is the outside chance this area does get a warning. 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 11, 2021 Author Report Share Posted December 11, 2021 I'm seeing overall + trends from the 0z EPS as the COLDER trends continue right around the "Solstice" period...the models are not shying away from the overwhelming agreement that High Lat Blocking shall be Locking. The biggest component has been the raging PAC jet slamming into the west coast and the lack of blocking, but that is about to change in dramatic fashion. Oh, did someone dial up that -NAO/-AO...you've been missed my many...I think its time our Sub shall reap some rewards, ay? Is it about time to focus in on the storm potential (s)...yes, I'm sorta getting excited about what lies ahead here for the start of the Christmas Holiday week as both the EPS/GEFS are showing increased ensemble support of somewhat of a "cutter" right before the Solstice, then followed by another storm just before Christmas or Christmas Eve. The potential is there, no doubt about it...I'm pretty sure there will be a lot of tugging and pulling on here as to who will reap the rewards of that magical snowfall during the holidays. 'Tis the season...come on Mother Nature...could you deliver a widespread "share the wealth"??? 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted December 11, 2021 Report Share Posted December 11, 2021 Sorry to hear about the tornadoes down in Kentucky. Here the temperature rose all night and reached 58 just before the cold front came thru. And boy there were some big time wind gust with that front. At this time it is still windy but no where near the gust that came with the front. The temperature is now down to 48. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted December 11, 2021 Report Share Posted December 11, 2021 Does this area have a tendency to kill the energy in thunderstorms? The last time we had a line of storms move through it was for the most part heavy rain with a complete absence of lightning as soon as it got here. We have our times though. March 1st 2017 did some notable damage in downtown Ashland. The 2012 derecho also knocked out power for several days. Of course I'm only hearing about these storms years after the fact. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OttumwaSnomow Posted December 11, 2021 Report Share Posted December 11, 2021 Well what a system crossing the nation. Our hearts are heavy for those in the Tornados path. But shockingly despite the low passed apparently within few miles of here. Stars were out several hrs, I had barely .02 rain. Since nov 10th ive had .03 and zero snow of course. Incredible dry spell and no real end in sight. May push 50 days soon! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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