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December 2021 Observations and Discussion


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1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

Between that comment, and Tom's post above wrt the NAO forecast to come down, we just may be in for a favorable stretch. I take it as a positive sign for this pattern that these clippers seem to be strengthening as they hit The Mitt. 

I agree 100%. I have noticed that as well.

Final Snowfall as of today July 2022 is: 47.1" Detroit Metro Area.

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3 hours ago, Tom said:

Today's trends in both blocking and MJO are turning the corner in the model world.  The 12z GEFS continue the theme of more troughing over the central CONUS starting this weekend.

1.gif

Sweet!

DTX might be picking up on this as well:

3:04pm

Quote

Additional shortwave energy also looks quite plausible into the
weekend within this active clipper pattern with a trend to colder
conditions and snow with time. Details of the evolution of an system
at that point of the forecast remains elusive at this point, but it
should be noted that a number of medium range model solutions show a
fairly significant system by the end of this forecast period.

 

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 35.7"  Largest Storm: 5.6" (2/2-3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 2.5 Jan: 8.4 Feb: 12.3 Mar: 3.2 Apr: 1.6

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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2 minutes ago, Niko said:

Kinda matches w/ what Tom posted right....

https://theweatherforums.com/uploads/monthly_2021_11/1.thumb.gif.7daf47c3b76cc8671cd9a8d9d50823f3.gif

Yes and Tom can correct me if I'm wrong but this storm I believe marks the start of cycle 2 and it took an inland track back on Oct 6th.  I think Jaster and I talked back then that this could produce for you guys maybe it will get it's act together and give Tom some snow as well.  Lets just hope the +AO doesn't warm things up to much.

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10 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Yes and Tom can correct me if I'm wrong but this storm I believe marks the start of cycle 2 and it took an inland track back on Oct 6th.  I think Jaster and I talked back then that this could produce for you guys maybe it will get it's act together and give Tom some snow as well.  Lets just hope the +AO doesn't warm things up to much.

I remember that storm as a matter of fact.

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Final Snowfall as of today July 2022 is: 47.1" Detroit Metro Area.

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46 minutes ago, Clinton said:

I bet it takes the inland track.

Well, tbh, this is some of the more serious/interesting MET-speak I've seen out of GRR so something's up. Too early to say how it all plays out, but they wouldn't spend a minute on this if there wasn't something possible in the back of their minds.

Quote
-Forecast confidence low in the longer term

Considerable forecast uncertainty develops later this week into
early next week. Tropical Depression 27W, presently west of Guam, is
expected to undergo recurvature and extratropical transition by mid
week. As this occurs, a pronounced midlatitude Rossby wavetrain is
shown to emerge from the eastern Pacific, as seen in time-longitude
(Hovmoller) sections of 200-mb meridional winds (averaged over 30-
60N). This yet-to-develop wave packet lends considerable uncertainty
downstream over North America after Friday, but the overall signal
is for somewhat amplified flow at 500 mb by 12z Mon, consisting of
an ensemble-mean eastern North America longwave trof and West Coast
ridge. However, the timing/placement of key transient synoptic-scale
features in the extended period are highly uncertain at this
juncture.

 

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 35.7"  Largest Storm: 5.6" (2/2-3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 2.5 Jan: 8.4 Feb: 12.3 Mar: 3.2 Apr: 1.6

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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25 minutes ago, Niko said:

I remember that storm as a matter of fact.

Actually, I hadn't due to it getting lost inbetween the autumn equinox monster, and the later monster(s) systems. Had to go back and see that it gave DTW a modest 3 or 4 tenths of precip. Not bad, just not that memorable. Iirc, Clinton was posting about it mostly because the track would be favorable for him if it were winter (LRC scouting ahead) and the fact that it had been so horribly boring and dry out that way. Same as lately.

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 35.7"  Largest Storm: 5.6" (2/2-3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 2.5 Jan: 8.4 Feb: 12.3 Mar: 3.2 Apr: 1.6

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Big, Gorgeous group of geese flew over the house tonight.  
 

The unusual thing was it was already dark and they were blasting South like there was no tomorrow.  The big goose up front was really on them and they were working to keep up.  I could barely see them in the sky but they were low yet not stopping for the lake I live by. Just kept powering south.  
Beautiful site to see and hear.  

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Ground Control to Major Tom:  "Return to Base...I repeat - return to Base!"

 

2021-11-29 18z gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_h144-162.gif

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  • Snow 2

Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 35.7"  Largest Storm: 5.6" (2/2-3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 2.5 Jan: 8.4 Feb: 12.3 Mar: 3.2 Apr: 1.6

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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2 hours ago, Clinton said:

I bet it takes the inland track.

So which date is that gulf low for exactly. 12z GEM this morning was trying to give us 2 storms, GFS likes that lead wave for this weekend that I posted. And yeah, I don't see any reason it would go out to sea at this stage of the season anyways.

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 35.7"  Largest Storm: 5.6" (2/2-3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 2.5 Jan: 8.4 Feb: 12.3 Mar: 3.2 Apr: 1.6

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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1 minute ago, jaster220 said:

So which date is that gulf low for exactly. 12z GEM this morning was trying to give us 2 storms, GFS likes that lead wave for this weekend that I posted. And yeah, I don't see any reason it would go out to sea at this stage of the season anyways.

Dec 5th/6th, I like how the 18z GFS handles it.

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14 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

So which date is that gulf low for exactly. 12z GEM this morning was trying to give us 2 storms, GFS likes that lead wave for this weekend that I posted. And yeah, I don't see any reason it would go out to sea at this stage of the season anyways.

Some models are sending another clipper your way on the 3rd also (Euro, CMC and Icon).  Good times in your region.

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0z NAM hangs some teaser snow down the chedda curtain Wed morn. Where's all the torch going??

image.png.a9ce7eaed4bc7212a4c47c966de3c2c8.png

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 35.7"  Largest Storm: 5.6" (2/2-3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 2.5 Jan: 8.4 Feb: 12.3 Mar: 3.2 Apr: 1.6

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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6 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Some models are sending another clipper your way on the 3rd also (Euro, CMC and Icon).  Good times in your region.

OMG, models want to hear Chicago Peeps cry "uncle". Brutal

image.png.14333b1b6817a6b90c3c61a69076dc2f.png

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 35.7"  Largest Storm: 5.6" (2/2-3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 2.5 Jan: 8.4 Feb: 12.3 Mar: 3.2 Apr: 1.6

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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11 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Some models are sending another clipper your way on the 3rd also (Euro, CMC and Icon).  Good times in your region.

Helluva way to run a torch

image.png.a15db5813f3cafa51e30005e9d58bb17.png

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 35.7"  Largest Storm: 5.6" (2/2-3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 2.5 Jan: 8.4 Feb: 12.3 Mar: 3.2 Apr: 1.6

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Euro is very far north with both storms. Takes my 12/7 storm and brings the SLP over Winnipeg.

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>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"), 1/14 (2.7"), 1/22 (2.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 51.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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OMG! The GFS is a flame thrower here in KC for the foreseeable future. Darn it! Please change on the 12z run today. 

 

Clinton.....find me some changes!!!! 

Congrats to all the beautiful snow up in the Great Lakes region...hope you all are enjoying it.  It's winter....at least up there. I watched the Michigan State game Saturday just to see it snowing. 

 

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Happy Taco Tuesday...that's what I'll be whipping up today on my patio deck while grilling some seasoned chicken and enjoying the low 80's today.  This has been one of the best late autumn trips wx wise out here in the SW.  It's been years since we have seen literally an entire month with zero precip and AN temps for days...Literally, every single day this month has been AN.  Just incredible.  I can see this summer having some very hot days as this ridge-like pattern will cycle back. 

In the meantime, I'd like to chime in on some LR thoughts as we near the start of met Winter tomorrow.   For those of you in the GL's, the pattern will keep on giving while the rest out west will have to wait for Winter to arrive.  Unfortunately, I don't see any signs in the immediate future for snow lovers out west and south.  Not until we see the cooperation of the teleconnections.  The models are wildly flipping back n forth...for instance, yesterday's Euro Weeklies have now changed its tune wrt to the MJO.  See below how it goes into Phase 7, then back to 6, then back to 7.  This is still, however, a decent pattern if your looking for snow and some cold to seed into the pattern.  It's going to take till mid month (ish) for those out west IMHO.  The LR signals up in the Strat are suggesting to me that by the 19th or so the cold will begin to press south and the west coast ridge will subside drastically.  It may even start earlier than this as we will be in the SW Flow part of the LRC.  I could be wrong but I do foresee a very active period of storms the week of the Winter Solstice into the holidays.  This will be a banner year for parts of our Sub and I'm hopeful that a majority of us will reap some white gold just in time for the spirit of the holidays. 

image.png

 

#ThinkSnow...while the GL's region and parts of the eastern MW get rocked over the next 10 days, the western Sub will begin to get in the action.  The Euro Weeklies are slowly coming around and showing some + changes in the 500mb pattern towards the end of Week 2.  The snow signal is growing stronger as we get closer (good signs) from 2 weeks ago when these maps were available for the holiday period.

1.png

2.png

 

Through the 28th of Dec...you can gauge that the pattern will eventually "press"...if the Euro Weeklies are correct about the EPO forecast then it would make sense...

3.png

 

 

4.png

 

I'll finish off by showing this Day 10 Strat warming over Canada...looks quite similar to what happened back in Oct.  In all fairness, what JB is saying wrt to the Strat Warming that is forecast to develop this month, it is not necessarily a "true" major sudden Strat Warming event.  Nevertheless, this will result in a very cold pattern to end Dec and open Jan.  This is what has my attn for some brutal arctic air to invade our entire Sub.  I do believe that there is a lot to look forward to for those who have not seen any snow so far.  This years LRC has had some good periods and they will cycle through when the cold and precip "marry" together.  Good times ahead!

 

 

5.png

 

 

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while it is still too early to put full faith into this possible event this is the write up from the NWS office in GRR.

-Possible snow storm late in the weekend then really cold

So here is where the weather gets glitchy. It turns out we have a

developing Typhoon (Nyatoh) in the western Pacific that is

expected to recurved into the north Pacific over the weekend.

This will buckle the upper air pattern enough of force a

developing trough over Great Lakes late in the weekend. Both the

GFS and ECMWF give Michigan a significant snow storm from this

event in the late Sunday to Monday time frame. How we get that

storm is significantly different on those models. About 70 percent

of the ensembles of both models have this snow storm.

 

The snow storm, if it happens, would be in the late Sunday or

Monday time frame. Behind this storm is VERY COLD air. It is

questionable if the system that develops will be deep enough to

pull this air far enough south to that it gets into this area.

We could have highs in the teens Monday or Tuesday if that does

happens. That in turn would bring a significant lake effect snow

event with it. We will have to keep on eye on this potential event

as it would be the most impactful of the season so far.

Remember it is still a ways off so do not put this in stone yet.

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1 hour ago, Tom said:

The pattern that keeps on giving in and around the GL's region...0z Euro has some nice totals for the Mitt...the trails will be looking mighty fine this year... @FAR_Weather  @Madtown are all in the game as well...

1.png

2.png

 

Am I seeing near a foot in mby?! Holy crap!

@jaster220 will flip when he sees this.......his area is 12"+.

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Final Snowfall as of today July 2022 is: 47.1" Detroit Metro Area.

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1 hour ago, Tom said:

Happy Taco Tuesday...that's what I'll be whipping up today on my patio deck while grilling some seasoned chicken and enjoying the low 80's today.  This has been one of the best late autumn trips wx wise out here in the SW.  It's been years since we have seen literally an entire month with zero precip and AN temps for days...Literally, every single day this month has been AN.  Just incredible.  I can see this summer having some very hot days as this ridge-like pattern will cycle back. 

In the meantime, I'd like to chime in on some LR thoughts as we near the start of met Winter tomorrow.   For those of you in the GL's, the pattern will keep on giving while the rest out west will have to wait for Winter to arrive.  Unfortunately, I don't see any signs in the immediate future for snow lovers out west and south.  Not until we see the cooperation of the teleconnections.  The models are wildly flipping back n forth...for instance, yesterday's Euro Weeklies have now changed its tune wrt to the MJO.  See below how it goes into Phase 7, then back to 6, then back to 7.  This is still, however, a decent pattern if your looking for snow and some cold to seed into the pattern.  It's going to take till mid month (ish) for those out west IMHO.  The LR signals up in the Strat are suggesting to me that by the 19th or so the cold will begin to press south and the west coast ridge will subside drastically.  It may even start earlier than this as we will be in the SW Flow part of the LRC.  I could be wrong but I do foresee a very active period of storms the week of the Winter Solstice into the holidays.  This will be a banner year for parts of our Sub and I'm hopeful that a majority of us will reap some white gold just in time for the spirit of the holidays. 

image.png

 

#ThinkSnow...while the GL's region and parts of the eastern MW get rocked over the next 10 days, the western Sub will begin to get in the action.  The Euro Weeklies are slowly coming around and showing some + changes in the 500mb pattern towards the end of Week 2.  The snow signal is growing stronger as we get closer (good signs) from 2 weeks ago when these maps were available for the holiday period.

1.png

2.png

 

Through the 28th of Dec...you can gauge that the pattern will eventually "press"...if the Euro Weeklies are correct about the EPO forecast then it would make sense...

3.png

 

 

4.png

 

I'll finish off by showing this Day 10 Strat warming over Canada...looks quite similar to what happened back in Oct.  In all fairness, what JB is saying wrt to the Strat Warming that is forecast to develop this month, it is not necessarily a "true" major sudden Strat Warming event.  Nevertheless, this will result in a very cold pattern to end Dec and open Jan.  This is what has my attn for some brutal arctic air to invade our entire Sub.  I do believe that there is a lot to look forward to for those who have not seen any snow so far.  This years LRC has had some good periods and they will cycle through when the cold and precip "marry" together.  Good times ahead!

 

 

5.png

 

 

Thanks, Tom. A few more weeks of warmth here in the country's midsection, after that, the winter party begins. Let's GO!

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31 minutes ago, MIKEKC said:

Thanks, Tom. A few more weeks of warmth here in the country's midsection, after that, the winter party begins. Let's GO!

It's so frustrating how things have to line up perfectly here just to get some Winter weather.  I think I need a vacation to Michigan right now!

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3 hours ago, Tom said:

The pattern that keeps on giving in and around the GL's region...0z Euro has some nice totals for the Mitt...the trails will be looking mighty fine this year... @FAR_Weather  @Madtown are all in the game as well...

1.png

2.png

 

Then it gets absolutely nerfed by unseasonable temps.

>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"), 1/14 (2.7"), 1/22 (2.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 51.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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2 minutes ago, Clinton said:

It's so frustrating how things have to line up perfectly here just to get some Winter weather.  I think I need a vacation to Michigan right now!

Totally agree.  But this year is even worse than most so far.  We haven't even been close to any winter weather.  Usually by now there has been a near miss or two (or at least something forecasted to just miss us).  This year, we can't even get the cold air, much less the combo of cold air and precip.  I didn't think the GFS could get any worse than yesterday's forecast for one below normal day in the next sixteen.  But the 06z run has zero below normal days.  On top of that, there's less than .25 inches of precip forecasted for the next two weeks.  I'm telling you man, echoes of 2011-2012 are getting louder and louder.   

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I think the 06z GFS might be picking up on cycle #2. The below images are 60 days apart. The GFS then develops the West coast trough shown below into a closed low over Nebraska which is what happened in cycle #1. So this matches pretty well...so maybe around a 60 day cycle length or so if this pans outs.

 

gfs_z500_vort_us_42.png

dwm500_test_20211011.gif

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  • 21-22 Total Snowfall: 21.1" (123% of seasonal normal 17.1" )
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9 minutes ago, someweatherdude said:

Totally agree.  But this year is even worse than most so far.  We haven't even been close to any winter weather.  Usually by now there has been a near miss or two (or at least something forecasted to just miss us).  This year, we can't even get the cold air, much less the combo of cold air and precip.  I didn't think the GFS could get any worse than yesterday's forecast for one below normal day in the next sixteen.  But the 06z run has zero below normal days.  On top of that, there's less than .25 inches of precip forecasted for the next two weeks.  I'm telling you man, echoes of 2011-2012 are getting louder and louder.   

I remember that year and how there were hardly any storms in the pattern anywhere.  So I don't think it will be like that, lets see how the next 3 weeks play out before we declare this season a loss.

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Even a solid rain event would be nice.  I am going to water my shrubs again today and I'll probably do it again in a couple weeks.

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season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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2 minutes ago, mlgamer said:

I think the 6z GFS might be picking up on cycle #2. The below images are 60 days apart. The GFS then develops the West coast trough shown below into a closed low over Nebraska which is what happened in cycle #1. So this matches pretty well...so maybe around a 60 day cycle length or so if this pans outs.

 

gfs_z500_vort_us_42.png

dwm500_test_20211011.gif

Looks good lets see what happens!  We need to get that AO and NAO down or it will be a rainer.

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15 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Looks good lets see what happens!  We need to get that AO and NAO down or it will be a rainer.

Clinton, that's for sure....it's always something!  If the Oct 11/12 and Oct 27/28 storms don't deliver any snow here in cycle #2, I'm probably looking at another well below normal seasonal snowfall again this season. 🥴

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  • 21-22 Total Snowfall: 21.1" (123% of seasonal normal 17.1" )
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2 hours ago, Niko said:

Am I seeing near a foot in mby?! Holy crap!

@jaster220 will flip when he sees this.......his area is 12"+.

GRR AFD talking about possible snowstorm next Sunday/Monday.  Euro and GFS are similar in W to E track.  Someone could see so long duration snows out of this.  Might need a thread soon. 

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2 hours ago, mlgamer said:

Clinton, that's for sure....it's always something!  If the Oct 11/12 and Oct 27/28 storms don't deliver any snow here in cycle #2, I'm probably looking at another well below normal seasonal snowfall again this season. 🥴

Might take a look at the 12z ICON, it just flipped colder for our area starting around the 5th and then has a storm around the 8th in the "slot".

Also 12z GFS has it as well .

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48 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Might take a look at the 12z ICON, it just flipped colder for our area starting around the 5th and then has a storm a storm around the 8th in the "slot".

Also 12z GFS has it as well .

Yeah, I think the models have been slowly starting to pick up on the Oct 11 storm. A positive +AO and +NAO might work together to produce a weaker and warmer system. Hopefully that doesn't happen....time will tell I guess...lol

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  • 21-22 Total Snowfall: 21.1" (123% of seasonal normal 17.1" )
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OAX is now forecasting 74 for Thursday. Should easily kill the daily record of 68 and it's not much more to beat the monthly record of 75. At least 12z GFS is less of a torch fest in the mid-long range for western members. More like near average overall. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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