SnowWillarrive Posted January 2, 2022 Report Share Posted January 2, 2022 24 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: We'll have to wait and see if we really get hosed like the models are showing or not. Tough call. Saw someone on Twitter from Lea Hill in Auburn reporting mixed rain and snow. That has to bode well for areas farther east. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted January 2, 2022 Report Share Posted January 2, 2022 Cliff posted another update saying zero lowland snow tonight into tomorrow morning. Expecting some light snow Wednesday evening with the overrunning event. https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2022/01/the-melt-out-begins-no-lowland.html?m=1 3 1 1 Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KingstonWX Posted January 2, 2022 Report Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, bainbridgekid said: Cliff posted another update saying zero lowland snow tonight into tomorrow morning. Expecting some light snow Wednesday evening with the overrunning event. https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2022/01/the-melt-out-begins-no-lowland.html?m=1 So widespread 8" confirmed? 2 5 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 2, 2022 Report Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, bainbridgekid said: Cliff posted another update saying zero lowland snow tonight into tomorrow morning. Expecting some light snow Wednesday evening with the overrunning event. https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2022/01/the-melt-out-begins-no-lowland.html?m=1 Dude must love the taste of crow. 1 2 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawksfan2008 Posted January 2, 2022 Report Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, TT-SEA said: Dude must love the taste of crow. It’s almost like he’s doing it to say “I told you so” at this point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted January 2, 2022 Report Share Posted January 2, 2022 Holding at 37 here for the high so far today with east winds hanging on. See the south with is up to Aurora now though so should just be a matter of hours until PDX pops into the low 50s probably mid to upper 40s here Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownerd3000 Posted January 2, 2022 Report Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 hour ago, MossMan said: Good! I ordered a fancy two person side by side sled since the kids small plastic one broke last week. Hopefully they will get to use it this season! It's coming 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawksfan2008 Posted January 2, 2022 Report Share Posted January 2, 2022 Morgan Palmer calling out the possibility and admitting he doesn’t know. Good for him. Humility. 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted January 2, 2022 Report Share Posted January 2, 2022 18z Euro comes out in 20 minutes. If it holds serve I’d have to imagine we will see some of the pros start talking about tonight more seriously. Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanNyberg Posted January 2, 2022 Report Share Posted January 2, 2022 Just now, Hawksfan2008 said: Morgan Palmer calling out the possibility and admitting he doesn’t know. Good for him. Humility. He's always been pretty honest. I've always appreciated that. 2 Quote -------------------- Sean Nyberg IG: @SeanNyberg X: @SeanNyberg Facebook: Sean Nyberg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 2, 2022 Report Share Posted January 2, 2022 9 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said: Cliff posted another update saying zero lowland snow tonight into tomorrow morning. Expecting some light snow Wednesday evening with the overrunning event. https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2022/01/the-melt-out-begins-no-lowland.html?m=1 Perfect, it’s going to snow!! 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chewbacca Defense Posted January 2, 2022 Report Share Posted January 2, 2022 Winds still cranking though the gap between big gusts is getting longer. We have been at 44 most of the day, but the temp is starting to drop and is now at 41. It also clouded back up and we are seeing a little bit of rain. 1 Quote Britton Rd Bellingham Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWABELLI103?cm_ven=localwx_pwsdash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 2, 2022 Report Share Posted January 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said: 18z Euro comes out in 20 minutes. If it holds serve I’d have to imagine we will see some of the pros start talking about tonight more seriously. The front is already moving inland... its moving along pretty fast. Might be time for them to figure out what will happen over the next 8 hours. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gusky Posted January 2, 2022 Report Share Posted January 2, 2022 I've been a bit skeptical of Cliff Mass's forecasts recently too, but I think we have to be a bit realistic here... this event is EXTREMELY marginal. Temps aren't likely to go to freezing on their own, and any snow would rely on heavy precip to cool the air. Even then, a large, disruptive snow event just isn't likely (especially 5 inches like the GFS says). NAM and most other models, with the notable exception of the GFS, don't think sfc will cool below 34/35 tonight and tomorrow night. To be fair, BFI is currently measuring 8 degrees cooler than NAM predicted, so could be closer than expected. I personally think that snow levels will reach sea level, but I would be surprised to see accumulations over an inch for metro areas. As always, I want nothing more than for this post to reverse jinx it and to get absolutely BURIED in snow, but I can't help but feel that the actual NWS forecasters, some of the top experts in the area, and Cliff Mass are right here. 2 1 Quote My Weather Station: https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/b415ff35b2d13f00c899051028f04466 Located in North Seattle, elevation ~150ft. Highest temperature ever recorded is 110.3, lowest is 14.5. My Twitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gusky Posted January 2, 2022 Report Share Posted January 2, 2022 In other news, I think the front might be here... (I'll just ignore the tornado indicated in RadarScope lol) 1 1 Quote My Weather Station: https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/b415ff35b2d13f00c899051028f04466 Located in North Seattle, elevation ~150ft. Highest temperature ever recorded is 110.3, lowest is 14.5. My Twitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted January 2, 2022 Report Share Posted January 2, 2022 Just now, gusky said: In other news, I think the front might be here... (I'll just ignore the tornado indicated in RadarScope lol) 7PM to Midnight is when models indicate the I-5 corridor will have the heaviest precip rates. Looks about right to me. 3 Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 2, 2022 Report Share Posted January 2, 2022 Getting very dark all of a sudden. 38.3 degrees. impressive amount of water coming off my roof. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KingstonWX Posted January 2, 2022 Report Share Posted January 2, 2022 9 minutes ago, gusky said: I've been a bit skeptical of Cliff Mass's forecasts recently too, but I think we have to be a bit realistic here... this event is EXTREMELY marginal. Temps aren't likely to go to freezing on their own, and any snow would rely on heavy precip to cool the air. Even then, a large, disruptive snow event just isn't likely (especially 5 inches like the GFS says). NAM and most other models, with the notable exception of the GFS, don't think sfc will cool below 34/35 tonight and tomorrow night. To be fair, BFI is currently measuring 8 degrees cooler than NAM predicted, so could be closer than expected. I personally think that snow levels will reach sea level, but I would be surprised to see accumulations over an inch for metro areas. As always, I want nothing more than for this post to reverse jinx it and to get absolutely BURIED in snow, but I can't help but feel that the actual NWS forecasters, some of the top experts in the area, and Cliff Mass are right here. As much as I hate to say it, I think you are right. I hope the atmosphere proves both of us wrong though. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 2, 2022 Report Share Posted January 2, 2022 41F with some very heavy rain over the last 1/2 hour here. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted January 2, 2022 Report Share Posted January 2, 2022 11 minutes ago, gusky said: I've been a bit skeptical of Cliff Mass's forecasts recently too, but I think we have to be a bit realistic here... this event is EXTREMELY marginal. Temps aren't likely to go to freezing on their own, and any snow would rely on heavy precip to cool the air. Even then, a large, disruptive snow event just isn't likely (especially 5 inches like the GFS says). NAM and most other models, with the notable exception of the GFS, don't think sfc will cool below 34/35 tonight and tomorrow night. To be fair, BFI is currently measuring 8 degrees cooler than NAM predicted, so could be closer than expected. I personally think that snow levels will reach sea level, but I would be surprised to see accumulations over an inch for metro areas. As always, I want nothing more than for this post to reverse jinx it and to get absolutely BURIED in snow, but I can't help but feel that the actual NWS forecasters, some of the top experts in the area, and Cliff Mass are right here. NWS doesn't even mention a rain snow mix. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted January 2, 2022 Report Share Posted January 2, 2022 50 degrees in Tigard and 39 degrees at PDX. Always fun to see the big differences in temperatures in setups like this. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gusky Posted January 2, 2022 Report Share Posted January 2, 2022 Just now, 12345WeatherNerd said: NWS doesn't even mention a rain snow mix. I'll be honest, I found that a bit weird... accumulations might be unlikely, but you'd think they would mention the chances, however low, of snow levels briefly dropping to sea level. Quote My Weather Station: https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/b415ff35b2d13f00c899051028f04466 Located in North Seattle, elevation ~150ft. Highest temperature ever recorded is 110.3, lowest is 14.5. My Twitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 3, 2022 Report Share Posted January 3, 2022 Joseph Oregon is a town that knows how to hang onto some legit cold. Currently 3 there with a 12/-5 day so far. 2 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted January 3, 2022 Report Share Posted January 3, 2022 18z increased snow totals over the 12z. 4 1 Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted January 3, 2022 Report Share Posted January 3, 2022 And the 10:1 map just for giggles. 3 Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weiner Warrior Posted January 3, 2022 Report Share Posted January 3, 2022 Snoqualmie looks horrible. Good for skiing. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weiner Warrior Posted January 3, 2022 Report Share Posted January 3, 2022 1 minute ago, bainbridgekid said: And the 10:1 map just for giggles. I'm locking in the 10:1 maps. Screw it. 12 inches for Seattle!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weiner Warrior Posted January 3, 2022 Report Share Posted January 3, 2022 2 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said: And the 10:1 map just for giggles. Is that all in 9 hours? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted January 3, 2022 Report Share Posted January 3, 2022 2 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said: And the 10:1 map just for giggles. temps? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted January 3, 2022 Report Share Posted January 3, 2022 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanNyberg Posted January 3, 2022 Report Share Posted January 3, 2022 Between Seattle and Everett from now to 10AM tomorrow: 18Z Euro: 4.5-6" (Kuchera ratio) 10-12" (10:1 ratio) 18Z GFS: 4.5-6.5" (Kuchera ratio) 6-8" (10:1 ratio) 18Z NAM: 2-6" (Kuchera ratio) 2-8" (10:1 ratio) 18Z NBM: 0-2" (10:1 ratio) Across the models you get 0-12" over the next 18 hours anywhere between Seattle and Everett and areas to the east. National Weather Service doesn't even mention the chance of a rain/snow mix. While the higher totals are extremely unlikely, not even suggesting anything seems a bit odd and a bit irresponsible. Even if it ends up being right, that will be more luck than honest forecasting. Especially since we're coming off of a week+ of snow, it is not like the first snow chance of the year where people might freak out. 6 Quote -------------------- Sean Nyberg IG: @SeanNyberg X: @SeanNyberg Facebook: Sean Nyberg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 3, 2022 Report Share Posted January 3, 2022 7 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: Another increase. Shows the heaviest snow up around Everett and Lynnwood. Interestingly... the ECMWF showed almost half an inch of precip at SEA by 4 p.m. today and they have only had .02 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 3, 2022 Report Share Posted January 3, 2022 6 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: Another increase. 8 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said: 18z increased snow totals over the 12z. So weird to see see Everett and even Seattle with much more accumulation than me. I do not approve. 1 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smerfylicious Posted January 3, 2022 Report Share Posted January 3, 2022 Keeps bouncing between 33-35 here. Winds up to 20mph mostly sustained. Dew point is back below freezing though. Signs point to...maybe? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakerepp Posted January 3, 2022 Report Share Posted January 3, 2022 8 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said: And the 10:1 map just for giggles. Welp I'm in the bullseye so if anything gonna happen, I'm gonna see something. Quote Home Weather Station Stats for 2023 High - Satans Bunghole Lowest High - Not sure Low - I don't have the data Sub 40 highs - Not quite Sub-freezing highs - Try again Lows below 25 - You're joking Lows below 20 - No 2023 Snowfall - LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 3, 2022 Report Share Posted January 3, 2022 Hard to throw out the euro at this range. Wtf is going on this year with the models. 3 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted January 3, 2022 Report Share Posted January 3, 2022 10 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: Another increase. Bothell in the bullseye is what I like to see. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smerfylicious Posted January 3, 2022 Report Share Posted January 3, 2022 Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said: Hard to throw out the euro at this range. Wtf is going on this year with the models. They both got "updated" Which given the GFS track record, it's hitting it out of the park compared to what it used to do. Both models are really struggling with marginal events, however. Anything with close to 0 850's seems to show it dumping snow for both, hence why we've had some pretty epic misses. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 3, 2022 Report Share Posted January 3, 2022 Honestly the front looks ahead of schedule and not really stalling, looks to be moving along to the east fast. 2 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowWillarrive Posted January 3, 2022 Report Share Posted January 3, 2022 3 minutes ago, MossMan said: So weird to see see Everett and even Seattle with much more accumulation than me. I do not approve. No matter what those maps say your location will still get 12+ inches 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Posted by MR.SNOWMIZER,
28 reactions
Go to this post
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.