lowlandsnow Posted January 22, 2022 Report Share Posted January 22, 2022 High of around 25 in Seattle on the 6th 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 22, 2022 Report Share Posted January 22, 2022 1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Jim says this is not possible. I was talking about up here. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted January 22, 2022 Report Share Posted January 22, 2022 2 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said: Portland does really well not as much snow in Seattle though Where do you see that? Seattle gets continuous snow fall in this run. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 22, 2022 Report Share Posted January 22, 2022 Looks like the 498 line crosses into NE WA at hour 360. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted January 22, 2022 Report Share Posted January 22, 2022 So three days of great 18z runs. Will 00z tonight make it three bad ones to follow? Interesting patterns with the model runs. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted January 22, 2022 Report Share Posted January 22, 2022 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 22, 2022 Report Share Posted January 22, 2022 Only some -30 type stuff in the north part of Central and Eastern WA on this run. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted January 22, 2022 Report Share Posted January 22, 2022 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lowlandsnow Posted January 22, 2022 Report Share Posted January 22, 2022 Now there closer but at hour 336 it was 5 vs 12+ 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 22, 2022 Report Share Posted January 22, 2022 1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said: So three days of great 18z runs. Will 00z tonight make it three bad ones to follow? Interesting patterns with the model runs. Not surprising with the crazy ensemble spread we've been seeing. This run is epic. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted January 22, 2022 Report Share Posted January 22, 2022 5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Vodka anyone? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted January 22, 2022 Report Share Posted January 22, 2022 Forgot to post Portland… 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 22, 2022 Report Share Posted January 22, 2022 44/30 so far today up here. 18z is obviously going to be an extreme outlier. 1 2 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted January 22, 2022 Report Share Posted January 22, 2022 GEFS is again even better, starts the party earlier. I guess that one CMC run wasn't crazy. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 22, 2022 Report Share Posted January 22, 2022 I trust NOTHING both the 18z GFS Op and GEFS show as the past 2 runs have looked outstanding only to see the following 00z GFS run back way off. IF though tonight's 00z GFS is similar I'll be surprised and rather stoked as well. C'MON!!!! 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 22, 2022 Report Share Posted January 22, 2022 The GEFS has better digging and a better offshore block than the 12z. 1 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshua Lake Oswego Posted January 22, 2022 Report Share Posted January 22, 2022 12 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said: Where do you see that? Seattle gets continuous snow fall in this run. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 22, 2022 Report Share Posted January 22, 2022 2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: I trust NOTHING both the 18z GFS Op and GEFS show as the past 2 runs have looked outstanding only to see the following 00z GFS run back way off. IF though tonight's 00z GFS is similar I'll be surprised and rather stoked as well. C'MON!!!! You are so right. 18z doesn't mean much at this point. Tough to accept, but true. 1 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted January 22, 2022 Report Share Posted January 22, 2022 3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: 44/30 so far today up here. 18z is obviously going to be an extreme outlier. I think there’s a non zero chance the models just had to incorporate a delay of sorts. 18z yesterday had no hump on the way down. Today does, but will still end up good. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted January 22, 2022 Report Share Posted January 22, 2022 Want some confidence that this is not a drunkle outlier? Look at how bad 12z GFS was compared to it's ensemble. The 18z is very much possible. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 22, 2022 Report Share Posted January 22, 2022 5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: 44/30 so far today up here. 18z is obviously going to be an extreme outlier. Looks like I'll end up 36/30. Colder than I expected. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted January 22, 2022 Report Share Posted January 22, 2022 1 minute ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said: This was stated before more snow fell in Portland BTW. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 22, 2022 Report Share Posted January 22, 2022 1 minute ago, snow_wizard said: Looks like I'll end up 36/30. Colder than I expected. 43/36 here. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted January 22, 2022 Report Share Posted January 22, 2022 2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: You are so right. 18z doesn't mean much at this point. Tough to accept, but true. Really? It builds off improvements of the 12z. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 22, 2022 Report Share Posted January 22, 2022 1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said: 43/36 here. This pattern is exceptional for fake cold here. Just the right amount of offshore flow. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 22, 2022 Report Share Posted January 22, 2022 3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: You are so right. 18z doesn't mean much at this point. Tough to accept, but true. 1 1 4 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 22, 2022 Report Share Posted January 22, 2022 I just don't get why people so easily accept bad model runs, but ignore good ones. Just plain odd. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted January 22, 2022 Report Share Posted January 22, 2022 OP 18z GFS is a cold outlier! Reality: 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted January 22, 2022 Report Share Posted January 22, 2022 Cancel winter. Pack it up. I’ll see y’all next year 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted January 22, 2022 Report Share Posted January 22, 2022 Would like to see better 850s vs 12z, not worse. Maybe better later in run. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 22, 2022 Report Share Posted January 22, 2022 8 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said: OP 18z GFS is a cold outlier! Reality: There's a lot of uncertainty right now. There have been very cold ensemble members on both the EPS and GEFS today. All anyone is saying is this isn't over. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 22, 2022 Report Share Posted January 22, 2022 1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said: Would like to see better 850s vs 12z, not worse. Maybe better later in run. The 500mb pattern actually looks better though. The trough digs better. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 22, 2022 Report Share Posted January 22, 2022 13 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: I just don't get why people so easily accept bad model runs, but ignore good ones. Just plain odd. Because we've lived here our whole lives. 7 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 22, 2022 Report Share Posted January 22, 2022 Got really quiet in here once the ensembles started running... 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 22, 2022 Report Share Posted January 22, 2022 2 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 22, 2022 Report Share Posted January 22, 2022 Wouldn’t be surprised if we get a midnight low again tonight if the fog takes awhile to develop…already down to 40 before sunset. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted January 22, 2022 Report Share Posted January 22, 2022 1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Got really quiet in here once the ensembles started running... Yep, everyone was waiting around on a Saturday afternoon, sweating, just absolutely terrified of the 18z ensembles. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 23, 2022 Report Share Posted January 23, 2022 5 minutes ago, FroYoBro said: Yep, everyone was waiting around on a Saturday afternoon, sweating, just absolutely terrified of the 18z ensembles. Got really active during the outlier run. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 23, 2022 Report Share Posted January 23, 2022 Gorgeous out! 2 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 23, 2022 Report Share Posted January 23, 2022 Probably the worst ensemble run in 4-5 days. Trend continues sadly. Still some potential, but Matt was right. 1 1 1 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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