November 2015 in the Pacific Northwest

[snow_wizard]

The WRF certainly shows some decent snowfall for the East Puget Sound lowlands Sunday morning. Nice to see the 12z ECMWF looked quite similar. Sometimes baroclinic bands drop some surprise snowfalls when cold air dams up along the back edge.

[seattleweatherguy]

Especially for you.

 

And the 12z Euro actually looked similar:

 

Screenshot 2015-11-12 at 10.10.34 PM.png

the euro gives me no snow, but love how cold its getting

[bainbridgekid]

00Z ECMWF shows basically the same set-up as its 12Z run.   Cold air is drawn in at the back edge of the precip very early on Sunday morning with accumulating snow from Olympia up through the eastside of Seattle.

 

Then the precip abruptly shuts off around dawn Sunday.    

Was just about to say that.

 

Interesting things can happen with that kind of heavy precip in the middle of the night in this kind of setup.

 

Everett's WRF sounding sure looks like wet snow to me:

 

[TT-SEA]

And then you have the GFS MOS showing a low of 45 at SEA on Sunday morning.  Probably does not see the fine details.

[Dan the Weatherman]

FWIW, the 00z GFS is depicting a record-breaking +AO (over +7sd) in the long range. There's no hope for humanity if that verifies.

 

Pretty solid consensus on a near-perfect coupling of the PV column, all the way from 1mb to the surface, with little in the way of provocative wave bombardment. The 2006-07-esque analogs are starting to look good right about now.

 

You don't think California is going to be bone dry this winter, do you? 2006-07 was Los Angeles' driest year on record with only 3.21" rain that entire season, which is about as anti El Nino is it can possibly get!

[bainbridgekid]

Operational is an outlier on the warm side most of next week.

 

Quite a few chilly members while the Op is warm and wet.

 

[Sometimesdylan]

FWIW, the 00z GFS is depicting a record-breaking +AO (over +7sd) in the long range. There's no hope for humanity if that verifies.

 

Pretty solid consensus on a near-perfect coupling of the PV column, all the way from 1mb to the surface, with little in the way of provocative wave bombardment. The 2006-07-esque analogs are starting to look good right about now.

 

06-07 was a record breaking winter up here.... 

 

 

anyway the NWS posted a neat infographic about the current storm:

http://i.imgur.com/dyUQag9.jpg

[Phil]

Solid consensus on western troughing in the 00z EPS aggregate, with an orientation that favors significant MT/retrogression potential. Goes to show how important it is to keep that vortex out of the NE PAC.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Tomorrow might be a nice mild day across W. Oregon. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Interesting...

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/gfs_namer_054_1000_500_thick.gif

[Timmy]

Interesting...

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/gfs_namer_054_1000_500_thick.gif

Not super familiar with this setup, would tha be close to wet snow?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Not super familiar with this setup, would tha be close to wet snow?

 

Potentially for some higher elevations. 

[Jesse]

Tomorrow might be a nice mild day across W. Oregon.

It's days like today and tomorrow that ensure November 2015 will be yet another warmer than average month.

[Timmy]

It's days like today and tomorrow that ensure November 2015 will be yet another warmer than average month.

i think as the climate warms you should probably migrate north or east, save yourself some time and energy.

[Timmy]

Potentially for some higher elevations.

Nw of Portland at 1500'?

[GobBluth]

I'd hope the long term 12z doesn't come to pass - that would only cause the Blob to strengthen again.

[Jesse]

Good chunk of next week starting to look really toasty.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Let's keep these warm anomalies going!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Nw of Portland at 1500'?

 

I think you could see some flakes Sunday morning. 

[Kayla]

Good chunk of next week starting to look really toasty.

 

How's the model ride feel today? You've ALMOST worn it out this week.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

[Kayla]

ECMWF Ensembles continue to trend colder for next week with some REALLY cold members Thanksgiving week with 850mb temps down to -16º or -17º. Lots of disagreement among the models as of late, will be interesting to see where we stand after this weekend.

[luvssnow_spokane]

ECMWF Ensembles continue to trend colder for next week with some REALLY cold members Thanksgiving week with 850mb temps down to -16º or -17º. Lots of disagreement among the models as of late, will be interesting to see where we stand after this weekend.

It will be even more interesting to see where we will be on Thanksgiving.  -- Hoping for the best... expecting normal (climo). 

 

Funny thing is, it seems like for many years now we get some hinting in the models of something good so, I intentionally put my Christmas lights up early just in case it is cold (icy/snowy) and it never happens. Maybe I am jinxing it? DOH! So, maybe I do not put up my lights till after Thanksgiving??! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Hoping for the best but expecting the worst!!!

[MossMan]

It will be even more interesting to see where we will be on Thanksgiving. -- Hoping for the best... expecting normal (climo).

 

Funny thing is, it seems like for many years now we get some hinting in the models of something good so, I intentionally put my Christmas lights up early just in case it is cold (icy/snowy) and it never happens. Maybe I am jinxing it? DOH! So, maybe I do not put up my lights till after Thanksgiving??!

I do that as well and it works! At least in my location...even just last November when we got hit with a couple of inches of snow. My lights were up and I could sit on my couch in the evenings and look out at them sparkling against the snow. Think I might put them up on Sunday if we get a break in the rain.

[luvssnow_spokane]

I do that as well and it works! At least in my location...even just last November when we got hit with a couple of inches of snow. My lights were up and I could sit on my couch in the evenings and look out at them sparkling against the snow. Think I might put them up on Sunday if we get a break in the rain.

Part of now hates you... JK--   No really, I keep hoping after I put my lights up that I can sit back sip hot buttered rum and watch the snow fall. but NOT!!!  So much for living in the swamp.

 

OH, that being said, last nights wind/rain storm was disappointing at my local. Top windspeed (gust) was 19mph and we were in the donut rain shadow most of the night (like most of the puget sound). "Thank you Olympics!!" If that happens for our next big snow event I might just need counseling. Wait.. I already do...

 

 Our weather around here is so diverse as I know Olympia and other place much further north got it good. 

[Kayla]

12z ECMWF looks promising late next week/weekend.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF dumps snow at my location from 4-11 a.m. on Sunday.   Getting pushed back a little later with each run.

 

Sunday could be an awesome snow day here for my kids.     Might have to hang Christmas lights that day as well.  

[TT-SEA]

Has not gone below freezing here yet... and many trees still have leaves.   

 

And yet could get buried in snow without going below freezing.   Might be a 33 and heavy snow situation.

[ShawniganLake]

24hr rainfall totals of 8-10 inches for the SW side of Vancouver Island.  A couple of road washouts, and some flooding in that area. 

[stuffradio]

Just give up guys. There are warm anomalies in Oregon!

[Timmy]

Has not gone below freezing here yet... and many trees still have leaves.   

 

And yet could get buried in snow without going below freezing.   Might be a 33 and heavy snow situation.

 

same here, i have had two highs of 40, but no freezing temps yet.  

[Kayla]

same here, i have had two highs of 40, but no freezing temps yet.  

 

Same here! Not expecting to see any snow either this weekend at 1,100ft in the West Hills.

 

The clock continues...

[Timmy]

Same here! Not expecting to see any snow either this weekend at 1,100ft in the West Hills.

 

The clock continues...

not expecting, but knowing it is a possibility is kind of nice.  i am a little over 1500'

[HighlandExperience]

WRF still showing snow for the east puget sound lowlands.

 

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/wa_snow48.60.0000.gif

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF shows more snow for my location on Friday... followed by a cold weekend.

 

Winter is here!

[seattleweatherguy]

WRF still showing snow for the east puget sound lowlands.

 

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/wa_snow48.60.0000.gif

That model shows almost an inch for me, but what about the timing.

[TT-SEA]

That model shows almost an inch for me, but what about the timing.

 

Early Sunday morning.   

[BLI snowman]

12Z ECMWF shows more snow for my location on Friday... followed by a cold weekend.

 

Winter is here!

 

Eh, maybe.

[Jesse]

Eh, maybe.

Stop ruining everyone's fun with realism!