November 2015 in the Pacific Northwest

[Jesse]

28 and very frosty this morning.

[WS Snow]

Total snow per new 12Z WRF:

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/snow24.36.0000.gif

Sigh. Was hoping for a little snow on the ground in Suncadia (2200 feet) for Turkey Day. Seems iffy.

[stuffradio]

28 and very frosty this morning.

Funnily enough, today and yesterday has been the least frosty over the last week for here.

[ShawniganLake]

Total snow per new 12Z WRF:

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/snow24.36.0000.gif

Still showing some accumulating snow here late this evening.  I guess we will see but I have my doubts.  I think the WRF is usually too aggressive with the cold air. 

[Timmy]

Total snow per new 12Z WRF:

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/snow24.36.0000.gif

 

 

this is nuts, yesterdays wrf had 4-6'' for me, at least the 00z had 1'' for me, now looks like nothing...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

this is nuts, yesterdays wrf had 4-6'' for me, at least the 00z had 1'' for me, now looks like nothing...

 

This little "event" has turned into quite the epic fail so far...

[luvssnow_spokane]

Funnily enough, today and yesterday has been the least frosty over the last week for here.

Same here... 

[luvssnow_spokane]

This little "event" has turned into quite the epic fail so far...

Becoming quite a common pattern anymore.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Models continue to be an epic turd fest... <_>

[TT-SEA]

Looking at the HRRR radar loop... we barely see just a little light rain tonight before the whole thing dives straight down the coast.   Even the mountains will be screwed.

 

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/jsloopLocalDiskDateDomainZipTZA.cgi?dsKeys=hrrr_jet:&runTime=2015112315&plotName=1ref_t1sfc&fcstInc=60&numFcsts=25&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR%20Model%20Fields%20-%20Experimental&maxFcstLen=24&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=t1

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looking at the HRRR radar loop... we barely see just a little light rain tonight before the whole thing dives straight down the coast.   Even the mountains will be screwed.

 

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/jsloopLocalDiskDateDomainZipTZA.cgi?dsKeys=hrrr_jet:&runTime=2015112315&plotName=1ref_t1sfc&fcstInc=60&numFcsts=25&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR%20Model%20Fields%20-%20Experimental&maxFcstLen=24&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=t1

 

Not terrible for my location. Probably won't be cold enough though!

[Front Ranger]

On the bright side, it appears a significant November event has been avoided, which many were convinced would be the death knell for the rest of winter. History, if it means anything, still argues that the best chance to score this winter will come later.

[TT-SEA]

After the light precip tonight and early tomorrow... the 12Z ECMWF is dry for the rest of the run.     I had a feeling that the extreme wetness of late October and the first half of November meant a period of dry weather was coming up.    I like when we get periods of really heavy precip followed by long dry spells in the winter.   Much better than getting .25 per day forever.

 

The ULL lingers over the inter-mountain west for a long time and seems to block up the pattern.  

[stuffradio]

After the light precip tonight and early tomorrow... the 12Z ECMWF is dry for the rest of the run.     I had a feeling that the extreme wetness of late October and the first half of November meant a period of dry weather was coming up.    I like when we get periods of really heavy precip followed by long dry spells in the winter.   Much better than getting .25 per day forever.

 

The ULL lingers over the inter-mountain west for a long time and seems to block up the pattern.  

Not sure about this whole "dry" thing. It's raining moderately here right now.

[TT-SEA]

Not sure about this whole "dry" thing. It's raining moderately here right now.

 

 

You knew it was going to rain today up there.

 

Probably going to be moderate rain up there from now until next week... models are obviously wrong.  

[ShawniganLake]

Not sure about this whole "dry" thing. It's raining moderately here right now.

Shawnigan Lake will end November with below average precip.  Probably right around 75% of Normal.

[BLI snowman]

Shawnigan Lake will end November with below average precip.  Probably right around 75% of Normal.

 

Same here, looking to finish a bit below 6" for the month here which is a bit below average.

 

Same story as well in Bellingham.

[TT-SEA]

About 14 inches here for the month which is above normal by about 3 inches. We rocketed up to above normal in the first 17 days of the month which made the current dry period sort of expected after a wet October as well.

[Abbotsford_wx]

Same here, looking to finish a bit below 6" for the month here which is a bit below average.

 

Same story as well in Bellingham.

 

Ditto here. It's looking like we'll finish around 8" compared to our normal of about 10". We're running a deficit of about 14" for 2015.

[MossMan]

White Christmas? Pattern reset in time for that? 1998 redux?

How was November 1998...at all similar this this Nov? Been way too long now.

[stuffradio]

The Mission guy that joined here is at over 12", and before today I was just below 12", something like 11.88" or something like that. I should be at or above 12" sometime today. I haven't done an official measurement yet today.

[ShawniganLake]

White Christmas? Pattern reset in time for that? 1998 redux?

How was November 1998...at all similar this this Nov? Been way too long now.

1998-99 was a La Nina, so not much point in looking at that one.  November of 98 was mild and wet. 

[TT-SEA]

1998-99 was a La Nina, so not much point in looking at that one.  November of 98 was mild and wet. 

 

 

Agree... look at 1997-98 for a better analog.

 

Nothing too exciting around Christmas that year.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Freezing Rain advisory for E. Gorge, NC Oregon, and the lower Columbia basin. Currently only 26 in Pendleton. 

[luvssnow_spokane]

White Christmas? Pattern reset in time for that? 1998 redux?

How was November 1998...at all similar this this Nov? Been way too long now.

I wish! But nope... Maybe February or March as usual ...

[ShawniganLake]

How does the WRF do with surface temps during potential Inversions?  Looks like its going with temps pushing 50F on Thursday.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

http://www.cascadeaccess.com/~mnelsen/RPM_SNOW_18z.jpg

[BLI snowman]

How does the WRF do with surface temps during potential Inversions?  Looks like its going with temps pushing 50F on Thursday.

 

xwa_tsfc_82_0000_gif_pagespeed_ic_NmxuDqcMIO.png

 

It's pretty useless with inversions. That map is obviously excessive, with the widespread mid tp upper 40s in the Columbia Basin.

[ShawniganLake]

It's pretty useless with inversions. That map is obviously excessive, with the widespread mid tp upper 40s in the Columbia Basin.

Cool, thanks.  I have never really paid much attention to it before. 

[Abbotsford_wx]

How does the WRF do with surface temps during potential Inversions?  Looks like its going with temps pushing 50F on Thursday.

 

xwa_tsfc_82_0000_gif_pagespeed_ic_NmxuDqcMIO.png

 

That might verify for the valley. I expect mid 40's at least, and above freezing overnight lows. We should dip below freezing when the outflow slackens off Thursday night.

[Deweydog]

http://www.cascadeaccess.com/~mnelsen/RPM_SNOW_18z.jpg

Bend over Bend, here it comes!!!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Winter storm warning for south central oregon. 5 to 8 inches in k falls. Up to 20 inches in the Fremont and warner mountains.

[Front Ranger]

Winter storm warning for south central oregon. 5 to 8 inches in k falls. Up to 20 inches in the Fremont and warner mountains.

 

Sweet. I might go up to Crater Lake on Wednesday or Friday.

[Timmy]

Looks like snow will be right on the margin for me.  Any snow will be more than I saw last winter.  If not, well southern Oregon/northern California could certainly use it.

you are out towards vernonia if i recall?

[MossMan]

1998-99 was a La Nina, so not much point in looking at that one. November of 98 was mild and wet.

For some reason I had it in my mind that 1998-99 was a El Niño year. Oh well. Anyway it's 38 degrees and rain. What a waste 38 degree rain is.

[HighlandExperience]

Just stepped outside. It is COLD, MISERABLE, and RAINY!

 

I took this picture on a short hike over the weekend. Lake 22 sits at a mere 2400 feet, but gets quite a bit of snow in the winter. It amazes me how much snow many locations along the mountain loop highway receive. Many of the locations near sea level easily exceed 100-200 plus inches a winter.

 

http://www.wta.org/site_images/trip-reports/2015/tripreport.image.2015-11-23.8995499937/@@images/bc059b1d-7b7c-4f6b-839a-2b647a7d4450.jpeg

[BLI snowman]

If the inversion does its job then next Monday could be a close call for some frozen stuff. GFS has been trying to bring something in that day.

 

Jinx!! Lol!!!!!

[Parksvillewx]

37F rain here all day..

[MossMan]

Been pouring all evening here with 37 degree temps. What a waste.

[stuffradio]

36F rain here. What a waist.