PNW February 2022 - Winters Last Stand

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

that genuinely surprises me

Technically +0.1F. Those 1991-2020 averages come in handy. But they actually ended the month with 10 straight negative daily departures. For the month they had 15 days with a negative departure, 12 days with a positive departure, and 4 days that were exactly normal. 

[Phishy Wx]

would prefer a 2019 late Feb redux if we get a preference.  pretty decent storm in Spokane with blowing and drifting.  also close to ground blizzard conditions after the storm due to strong NE winds down the Purcell Trench.  I think it got down to -1 as well

[Phishy Wx]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Oh my my...

I think that would leave E WA high and dry, typical

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Phishy Wx said:

I think that would leave E WA high and dry, typical

I'm thinking more February 2018 or March 2020...

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Technically +0.1F. Those 1991-2020 averages come in handy. But they actually ended the month with 10 straight negative daily departures. For the month they had 15 days with a negative departure, 12 days with a positive departure, and 4 days that were exactly normal. 

I'll say. That and the actually somewhat impressive string of 23-29°F lows KSLE pulled off in the second half of the month. I figured the fog/high humidity would have capped cooling to around 30°F (as it did at my place)...not so

[Gradient Keeper]

18z GFS (Day 1-8)

[Gradient Keeper]

Kind of close to a late season bitter blast if the PV phases better with the arctic trough. Ya never know! C'MON!!!!

00z ECMWF in 6 hours 57 minutes

[snow_wizard]

Looks like another significant February cold snap in the works.  Totally unreal.

The model progression the past couple of days has been the definition of a sneaker cold spell.  Something that started out looking rather pedestrian has trended to a low end Arctic outbreak.

[Gradient Keeper]

GFS Ensembles trending colder

Portland: 12z -7.8c, 18z -9c
Seattle: 12z -7.7c, 18z -9.4c
Moses Lake: 12z -12.4c, 18z -14.7c

[snow_wizard]

11 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Kind of close to a late season bitter blast if the PV phases better with the arctic trough. Ya never know! C'MON!!!!

00z ECMWF in 6 hours 57 minutes

I hope my 1970-71 analog ends up being the guide on this.  That was a really solid late winter event.

[Phil]

PV off the steroids finally?

[Jbolin]

WTF is "up" with February's lately?

[Meatyorologist]

Phebruary phreak-out!!!

[Phishy Wx]

11 minutes ago, JBolin said:

WTF is "up" with February's lately?

on an equal note, what is wrong with January?

[gusky]

Really hope I don't miss out on some cold (snow?) next week in Cannon Beach.

[SnowWillarrive]

35 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Looks like another significant February cold snap in the works.  Totally unreal.

The model progression the past couple of days has been the definition of a sneaker cold spell.  Something that started out looking rather pedestrian has trended to a low end Arctic outbreak.

Question is whether we can eek out some decent snowfall in this pattern. 

[gusky]

[gusky]

2 minutes ago, gusky said:

Don't think this will be able to pair with the cold, but could make for some nice t-storms!

[Meatyorologist]

4 minutes ago, gusky said:

Late February means better sfc heating, and the beginning of Spring thunderstorm season! March through May is where it really shines, but any time there's a postfrontal onshore airmass there's always a shot! Just the other day, Michael Snyder's locale was hit with a strike by a shower retreating southward

[Jbolin]

8 minutes ago, gusky said:

Thundersnow?

[gusky]

Just now, Meatyorologist said:

Late February means better sfc heating, and the beginning of Spring thunderstorm season! March through May is where it really shines, but any time there's a postfrontal onshore airmass there's always a shot! Just the other day, Michael Snyder's locale was hit with a strike by a shower retreating southward

I'll be looking forward to it! Saw Snyder's twt, he thinks it could have hit a plane flying through based on his Nest footage.

Better surface heating also means dust devil season! Hoping to chase those sometimes.

[gusky]

1 minute ago, JBolin said:

Thundersnow?

It's possible, timings looking a little awkward. I think there's definitely a chance with some especially strong convection, but temps will be quite marginal (generally no lower than 40F sfc, -5C 850s) in NW Oregon

[Jbolin]

12 minutes ago, gusky said:

It's possible, timings looking a little awkward. I think there's definitely a chance with some especially strong convection, but temps will be quite marginal (generally no lower than 40F sfc, -5C 850s) in NW Oregon

It was sarcasm but itz kool..

[gusky]

2 minutes ago, JBolin said:

It was sarcasm but itz kool..

I don't joke about thundersnow.

[TacomaWaWx]

Had a feeling this weather the last month was a fake spring. 49/42 today. Would be cool to get some snow but I’m not counting on it should could be some decent cold anomalies atleast and not the fake kind. 

[Blizzard777]

Weather forum activated! 
 

Meanwhile…nice day and currently 49*

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The nice thing about this is it kind of snuck up on it and if it "busts" I don't think anyone will care too much. 

[Christensen87]

1 hour ago, gusky said:

Really hope I don't miss out on some cold (snow?) next week in Cannon Beach.

I’ll be in CB this weekend. Hoping the rain doesn’t come in till later in the day Saturday so I can enjoy some dry time on the beach. Friday night should be OK for a bonfire. 

[Dan the Weatherman]

1 hour ago, Phishy Wx said:

1 hour ago, JBolin said:

WTF is "up" with February's lately?

on an equal note, what is wrong with January?

I don't know, but California as a whole has had more dry Januarys and Februarys during the last 10 years and is getting downright aggravating and depressing due to the never ending drought conditions and plant mortality that is occurring in the northern half of the state.

[Cascadia_Wx]

2 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

At face value this should get us down to -1°F to -2°F on the month using 1991-2020. Pretty cool to have a below average DJF trifecta, though late month inversions hard carried January; if we had been just 1k ft higher, Jan would have been a much different story.

PDX and VUO could technically pull it off too

They were -0.5F and -2.1F for December respectively -0.1F and -0.2F for January 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I like how the ensembles start to dip again toward the end. 

[Meatyorologist]

9 minutes ago, Dan the Weatherman said:

I don't know, but California as a whole has had more dry Januarys and Februarys during the last 10 years and is getting downright aggravating and depressing due to the never ending drought conditions and plant mortality that is occurring in the northern half of the state.

It's kind of surreal. I've driven through there twice in the last five years, and on the second go around everything looked so much more brown and dead. With March fast approaching and no wet pattern in sight, it's getting kind of ridiculous. I get the feeling there are regions where pine trees exist that the climo no longer supports them there. If not drought relief, fire will ultimately be the equalizer.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, Meatyorologist said:

It's kind of surreal. I've driven through there twice in the last five years, and on the second go around everything looked so much more brown and dead. With March fast approaching and no wet pattern in sight, it's getting kind of ridiculous. I get the feeling there are regions where pine trees exist that the climo no longer supports them there. If not drought relief, fire will ultimately be the equalizer.

Last time we went through the amount of dead and dying trees around Lake Shasta and in the siskiyous was amazing 

[Gradient Keeper]

1 hour ago, JBolin said:

WTF is "up" with February's lately?

There is a very long lag time due to all of the thinking Cold and SNOW, MBG, Cold enough for Socks, Here we go, C'MON!!! to Cold and SNOW, MBG, Cold enough for Socks, Here we go and C'MON!!! in actuality coming to fruition.

00z GFS in 2 hour 51 minutes

[Gradient Keeper]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I like how the ensembles start to dip again toward the end. 

Yep. Early March chill on the way. MBG

[TacomaWaWx]

50 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Yep. Early March chill on the way. MBG

Careful, you’ve now warranted some mossman March snow pictures 

[Meatyorologist]

1 hour ago, DJ Droppin said:

Yep. Early March chill on the way. MBG

It's been 67 years since KSEA had a subfreezing high in March; 29°F (!) on 3/4/1955.

32°F on 3/8/1951 is the latest subfreezing high on record and the only other time this was accomplished in March. 3/2/1989 very nearly cut this deficit in half but instead squeaked out a 33°F max, exactly one month after failing to eclipse 18°F. I'm sure the half foot of snow blanketing the ground put Seattle snow weenies at ease.

2002 was dead set on breaking new ground as high temperatures plummeted to an impressive 36°F on the 16th, before doubling down further with a 37°F on the 20th; clinching the latest and second latest sub-40°F highs on record. With some (not so minor) pattern tweaking there is an argument to be made that mid-March is our theoretical cut off point for subfreezing highs... maybe a bit later depending on your proximity to Covington.

[Meatyorologist]

 

On a side note, at the 500mb level 3/20/2002 is basically the March version of 12/29/1968.

 

[ShawniganLake]

11 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

 

On a side note, at the 500mb level 3/20/2002 is basically the March version of 12/29/1968.

 

I remember that March storm well.  Mid 20s with moderate snow the night of the 19th. 32/26 on March 20, 2002 with almost 10” of snow on the ground. 

[Meatyorologist]

It's pretty D**n incredible how the surface details during Dec 1968 worked out the way they did.

The image above depicts 12/30/68. KSEA had a 18/6 spread that day, KPDX earning a cool 14/8. PDX would also spend the following day in the teens. What the hell man.