2/3-2/4 Southern Lakes/Ohio Valley Winter Storm...

[Sciascia]

It's not even snowing at STL let alone Springfield or Decatur.

Ouch.

[james1976]

radar looks amazing. wish we could get rid of this dry air in iowa. looks like it wants to push north.

[Tony]

Reports of snow have begun around places like St Louis, Springfield. Good news.

[ChiTownBlizzard11]

She is a beauty alright on radar... Hard to believe she's going to just snuff out.

[indianajohn]

Projected total snowfall for northwerst indiana keep going up by the hour Skilling has us around 10" range......suprised we still in a watch

[Tom]

I think if the 18z runs come in wetter and farther NW we may have to expand some of the WSW farther NW.  It does seem south side of KC may get dry slotted in the next few hours, if that happens, it def is trending NW.  They weren't poised to get dry slotted.

[Sciascia]

Not sure when last updated, but LOT map going with 2-4 in the area. P&C also 2-4".

[gosaints]

The RAP is doing its usual coming back down to earth

[Tony]

Areas in Central IL starting to saturate. Our donut hole gettin closer to closing up.

[Tom]

Snowing heavily in Champaign/Urbana...

[Tony]

I will go bold and say 3:30pm

I am sticking with this call for startup time.

[Geos]

18z RAP

 

[Meichel]

Currently working in Indianapolis, and it just started here.

 

SN 23° calling for 8-12" tonight.

[Sciascia]

Hearing NAM went SE, so.....gonna ride my 2-day old guess of 2.5" at ORD. Hope I bust low!

[abhidupage]

Not really a big change for us on Nam 18z

[Tony]

Hearing NAM went SE, so.....gonna ride my 2-day old guess of 2.5" at ORD. Hope I bust low!

Don't really care about the global models at this point in the game. Just going to ride the radar trends and see what lake effect can develope later tonight into tomorrow.

[abhidupage]

Just talked to Caplan though he said the New Microcast run has 4" areawide even to K3

[gabel23]

Not really a big change for us on Nam 18z

 

 

I think if the 18z runs come in wetter and farther NW we may have to expand some of the WSW farther NW.  It does seem south side of KC may get dry slotted in the next few hours, if that happens, it def is trending NW.  They weren't poised to get dry slotted.

That's further NW than this morning. Also, places north of me were calling for 1-2" they are now up  to 2-4 in their grid. Moderate snow here right now; visibility a half a mile and snow flakes are very grainy. Sitting around an inch, hoping to get up to 5 by the time all is said and done. 

[DominicR]

I heard flakes falling in Bollingbrook

[Geos]

I heard flakes falling in Bollingbrook

 

That would be something given the radar donut around the radar site.

[shakjen]

For what its worth, light flurries just started here in LaSalle. i am 300 yards south of I-80. can see traffice on 80 as I type this.

[Geos]

I don't think anything has made it into the Chicago metro proper. Nothing was reported at IKK at 2:35pm.

[dubuque473]

Been snowing here for a bit now. Very light but constant.

[Sciascia]

Just read through LOT's new AFD. They don't seem to believe LES will be much of a player over here.

[Geos]

Been snowing here for a bit now. Very light but constant.

 

That tells me the lake is helping dry the air. Since you're due west of the area and it isn't snowing here yet.

 

Sharp northern fringe

 

[DominicR]

Just read through LOT's new AFD. They don't seem to believe LES will be much of a player over here.

 

It's always a wild-card. Didn't think it would much but maybe a little bit.

[Tony]

Just started to flurry here in Lombard

[DominicR]

I'd go with 3-5 for Chicago possibly more along lake if enhancement/effect ever does come into play. Addtional 6-8 inches on top of whatever has fallen across N MO/SE IA/C IL/IN. Detroit looks awfully close to warning snows. I'd go with 4-8 inches with highest south along border. NAM much more robust than GFS but outlier with crazy totals.

[DominicR]

0314 PM     SNOW             SULLIVAN                39.60N 88.61W

02/04/2014  M3.0 INCH        MOULTRIE           IL   MESONET

 

            MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW FALLING. ROADS ARE SNOW COVERED

            AND THERE IS BLOWING SNOW.

 

0310 PM     SNOW             DECATUR                 39.85N 88.93W

02/04/2014  M3.0 INCH        MACON              IL   BROADCAST MEDIA

 

            REPORTED AT WAND-TV.

 

[Geos]

Looks like KC never dry-slotted.

[Tom]

Looks like the doughnut hole starting to collapse over Chicagoland...wouldn't be surprised to see some light snow falling within the hour.

 

 

[Tom]

@ Geo's, that radar filled right back up but south side may be on the edge, north side has been doing real well.  Jim Cantore showed a live shot and snow let up where he was on the south side of KC.

[winterfreak]

Not to nit pick but Jim Cantore is not really on the south side of KC. That's more like midtown. Anyway it's still snowing pretty good here.

[DominicR]

Not to nit pick but Jim Cantore is not really on the south side of KC. That's more like midtown. Anyway it's still snowing pretty good here.

 

How much do you have?

[indianajohn]

Radar showing snow but none of it making it to the ground

[indianajohn]

Snowfall expected to start a few hours earlier then forecasted you think it will affect the totals much?

[Tom]

Light Flurries falling right now...

[Tony]

I'd go with 3-5 for Chicago possibly more along lake if enhancement/effect ever does come into play. Addtional 6-8 inches on top of whatever has fallen across N MO/SE IA/C IL/IN. Detroit looks awfully close to warning snows. I'd go with 4-8 inches with highest south along border. NAM much more robust than GFS but outlier with crazy totals.

I know you mentioned earlier about that dry slot pushing the defo band further north and so far that dry slot continues to push further north. In the end I am wondering what effect, if any, will that have.

[The Snowman]

I know you mentioned earlier about that dry slot pushing the defo band further north and so far that dry slot continues to push further north. In the end I am wondering what effect, if any, will that have.

I'm just jumping into the storm again after giving up a few days back, but it sounds like the snows would be pushed further north.

 

Wondering if someone else can confirm.

[Tom]

Looks like the dry air won't be too much of a problem over here.  I think the lake may be helping as I can see NE/SW bands on the high resolution radar.