This is patently absurd. Forecast model accuracy has gotten substantially better in the last 20 years. Yes, occasional situations like this still happen where there's uncertainty within 24 hours. But that is the exception, not the norm. These kinds of scenarios happened way more often 20 years ago. In 2025, the day 4-5 forecast is just about as accurate as the day 1-2 forecast was 20 years ago. These improvements have happened gradually over time, so they aren't as noticeable to us, but if you jump back to where we were 20 years ago, the difference is substantial.

Slight improvement with GFS, Good improvement with GEM.

Praise ALLAH

Yep, I’m also old enough to remember that storm, I was 6 years old, up on south hill Puyallup. I remember my dad keeping us all away from the windows, transformers flashing, and my mom on the phone with her sister frantically afraid our house was going to blow away!!

I dunno. GEM just moved towards NAM/GFS as well. Pretty much all models have this am, hi-res and low-res.