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November 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

Snow Cold Bitter
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#1
DJ Droppin

Posted 31 October 2016 - 01:15 PM

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I didn't see anyone create a topic thread for November, so I took it upon myself.

A cold, snowy, bitter, icy, freezing, numbing November on the way!

..or just ridgy with building inversions.
....maybe some rain.
......maybe a few clouds.
........wind storm?
..........maybe an AR event or two.
............flooding?

 

One thing is for sure, a lot of excitement, enthusiasm, and possible disappointments are on the way!

 

Here we go!


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#2
stuffradio

Posted 31 October 2016 - 01:25 PM

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I'm looking forward to some November carrots!



#3
catnip

Posted 31 October 2016 - 01:39 PM

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I say an above normal, but drier November, then gradually getting colder as we head into mid-December!



#4
stuffradio

Posted 31 October 2016 - 01:42 PM

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I say an above normal, but drier November, then gradually getting colder as we head into mid-December!

CFSv2 says oven roasted water for the PNW/BC SW.



#5
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 31 October 2016 - 02:03 PM

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Looks like it is going to be (ANOTHER) warm month!


Snowfall

2016-17: 47.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#6
Jesse

Posted 31 October 2016 - 02:04 PM

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I'm looking forward to some November carrots!


I'm sure the models will be dangling some at points. :)
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#7
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 31 October 2016 - 02:13 PM

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I'm sure the models will be dangling some at points. :)

 

Goodness I hope so. Maybe we can get a nice DJF streak of cold months going. 


Snowfall

2016-17: 47.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#8
Sometimesdylan

Posted 31 October 2016 - 05:16 PM

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Might see some rain/snow mix later this week. We shall see....


"There are so many waves coming in all the time, you don't have to worry about that. Take your time—wave come. Let the other guys go; catch another one." -Duke Kahanamoku


#9
hcr32

Posted 31 October 2016 - 06:52 PM

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CFSv2 says oven roasted water for the PNW/BC SW.

 

Steam?


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#10
snow_wizard

Posted 31 October 2016 - 07:39 PM

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If the massive warmth the models have been advertising materializes a short cold snap wouldn't surprise me later in the month.  A strong MJO wave is about to emerge and that could easily throw up a quick block over the GOA.  Overall the month should be warm though.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2017-18 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Coldest Low = 32

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs Below 40 = 0

 

 


#11
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 31 October 2016 - 08:00 PM

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Some would say we are due for massive torching after just a modest torch in October!


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Snowfall

2016-17: 47.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#12
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 31 October 2016 - 08:02 PM

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For the record I think it is way to early to be worried


Snowfall

2016-17: 47.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#13
TT-SEA

Posted 31 October 2016 - 08:05 PM

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For the record I think it is way to early to be worried

 

 

I agree with this... many years in our history were warm well into November and even December and showed no sign of crashing but they did.  



#14
Jesse

Posted 31 October 2016 - 08:09 PM

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For the record I think it is way to early to be worried


Of course it is. It's only Halloween.

#15
TT-SEA

Posted 31 October 2016 - 08:11 PM

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Looks like Friday (11/4) will be the first 0.00 at SEA since October 11th... a span of 23 days.   



#16
James Jones

Posted 31 October 2016 - 09:17 PM

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The GFS shows a potential shot of continental air if you extrapolate out to hour 408. Nice.



#17
snow_wizard

Posted 31 October 2016 - 09:23 PM

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Some would say we are due for massive torching after just a modest torch in October!

 

To be fair October wasn't really a torch.  The extreme cloudiness of the month is the main reason it ended up above normal due to lack of radiational cooling.  The 850mb temps were actually below normal.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2017-18 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Coldest Low = 32

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs Below 40 = 0

 

 


#18
snow_wizard

Posted 31 October 2016 - 09:24 PM

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For the record I think it is way to early to be worried

 

Why should be worried?  Warm Novembers are historically a good sign for winter.  A short cold snap would be nice to see though.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2017-18 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Coldest Low = 32

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs Below 40 = 0

 

 


#19
TT-SEA

Posted 31 October 2016 - 09:39 PM

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To be fair October wasn't really a torch.  The extreme cloudiness of the month is the main reason it ended up above normal due to lack of radiational cooling.  The 850mb temps were actually below normal.

 

I would say that most Octobers that end up warmer than normal are probably fairly cloudy.    And October is a pretty cloudy month normally... its baked into the averages.   



#20
Tundra

Posted 31 October 2016 - 09:53 PM

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As we close October on this Halloween night and head into November, I can't be anymore happy with what the newest edition of the 00z GFS shows. It looks promising in the long range as a Block starts to form in Southern Alaska. What I think will happen going forward is Blocking starting to appear around the middle of November. Initially it will be too far East but as we head into December it should retrograde West and amplify even more giving us a better chance of getting an Arctic Blast here in the PNW. 

 

LY7gfRh.pngLdqcEqP.png


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#21
Front Ranger

Posted 31 October 2016 - 10:13 PM

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Just for fun...

 

DEN just had a very dry Sep/Oct combo, recording only .33" of precip the two months (average is 2.32"). I decided to look at all years that were very dry in Sep/Oct, drawing the line at .80".

 

Here's those years: 2010, 2003, 1992, 1983, 1980, 1977, 1975, 1964, 1962, 1956, 1953, 1952, and 1948. Common theme for most those winters was a lot of blockiness, and most had at least one major blast.


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Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#22
snow_wizard

Posted 31 October 2016 - 10:23 PM

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Just for fun...

 

DEN just had a very dry Sep/Oct combo, recording only .33" of precip the two months (average is 2.32"). I decided to look at all years that were very dry in Sep/Oct, drawing the line at .80".

 

Here's those years: 2010, 2003, 1992, 1983, 1980, 1977, 1975, 1964, 1962, 1956, 1953, 1952, and 1948. Common theme for most those winters was a lot of blockiness, and most had at least one major blast.

 

The thing that's amazing to me is all of these extreme anomalies happening everywhere and if you roll the years forward they are almost all good.  Same thing with years that were extremely dry in SE AK and the years that were extremely wet here.  I'll bet some years had all three places make the list.

 

Another notable anomaly is the strong positive height anomaly over the GOA Jun - Sep and even parts of this month.  Very good signal for a cold winter there.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2017-18 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Coldest Low = 32

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs Below 40 = 0

 

 


#23
Brennan

Posted 31 October 2016 - 10:46 PM

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On the contrary of everything pointing to good, the tropics are acting incredibly wacky, so this could potentially counteract and be a total bust year, marking the first time ever BLI had 3 straight snowless winters...

I kid, i kid... i hope.

#24
DJ Droppin

Posted 31 October 2016 - 10:52 PM

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11:52 PM Radar Update

It's STILL raining in Seattle

onxOFv6.jpg



#25
TT-SEA

Posted 31 October 2016 - 10:54 PM

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11:52 PM Radar Update

It's STILL raining in Seattle

onxOFv6.jpg

 

 

Yeah... completely parked over us as usual.

 

Been a little ridiculous.  

 

But its been wetter than normal here for years now.    



#26
Tundra

Posted 31 October 2016 - 10:58 PM

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I know it's the CFS and it's way out in the long range but wow if this verifies.  :o

 

SVRp29l.png


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#27
DJ Droppin

Posted 31 October 2016 - 11:06 PM

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I know it's the CFS and it's way out in the long range but wow if this verifies.  :o

 

SVRp29l.png

I think that would make people rather happy, unless they hate cold and snow.


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#28
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 31 October 2016 - 11:20 PM

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Meanwhile the PDX radar is showing...Ummm yeah....Time for a dry spell.


Snowfall

2016-17: 47.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#29
snow_wizard

Posted 01 November 2016 - 12:05 AM

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I ended up with a ridiculous 10.33" of rain for October.  Not sure where all of the rain came from to finish out the month.  Way wetter than it was supposed to be.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2017-18 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Coldest Low = 32

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs Below 40 = 0

 

 


#30
snow_wizard

Posted 01 November 2016 - 12:06 AM

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I know it's the CFS and it's way out in the long range but wow if this verifies.  :o

 

SVRp29l.png

 

That's the magic setup.  That would be both cold and snowy.


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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2017-18 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Coldest Low = 32

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs Below 40 = 0

 

 


#31
DJ Droppin

Posted 01 November 2016 - 12:32 AM

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That's the magic setup.  That would be both cold and snowy.

Yup, and it develops around HR 516, then evolves to greatness from there.

 

500h_anom.na.png


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#32
BLI snowman

Posted 01 November 2016 - 12:34 AM

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Spokane ended up with their wettest month on record at the airport in October. Pretty impressive.


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#33
Timmy

Posted 01 November 2016 - 03:17 AM

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That's the magic setup. That would be both cold and snowy.


Too soon for amount estimates, or nah?
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#34
DJ Droppin

Posted 01 November 2016 - 03:36 AM

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Too soon for amount estimates, or nah?

Never too soon.



#35
westcoastexpat

Posted 01 November 2016 - 03:47 AM

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Why should be worried?  Warm Novembers are historically a good sign for winter.  A short cold snap would be nice to see though.

 

Or the winter doesn't pan out and we missed out on even November. There are other ways at looking at this November. January could be a total dud. I don't think it's fair to naysay anyone worried about November being very warm just because you are certain warm November = epic January. Warm Novembers have lead to some terrible Januarys for the region before. I personally am rooting for cold and snow AS SOON AS IT CAN.

 

Until then, I've got my eye on December...



#36
westcoastexpat

Posted 01 November 2016 - 03:51 AM

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I know it's the CFS and it's way out in the long range but wow if this verifies.  :o

 

SVRp29l.png

 

That was the 12Z for the CFS. The 00Z is out for the same time:

 

500h_anom.na.png

 

Talk about flip flopping  :lol:



#37
westcoastexpat

Posted 01 November 2016 - 03:59 AM

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Wow

 

500h_anom.na.png



#38
westcoastexpat

Posted 01 November 2016 - 04:01 AM

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You'd think this was a moderate Nino looking at this map:

 

850t_anom.na.png



#39
DJ Droppin

Posted 01 November 2016 - 04:20 AM

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You'd think this was a moderate Nino looking at this map:

 

850t_anom.na.png

 

What a mess. If I were to extrapolate this out to FCST HR 2460 it shows a Winter Cancel. Thankfully this is only FCST HR 264, so we're good. Plenty of time to turn things around. Yeah, that's sarcasm. The good thing is the CFS flip-flops more than flip-flops. I just made that up literally right now.

 

12z GFS in 3 hours 8 minutes!



#40
DJ Droppin

Posted 01 November 2016 - 04:26 AM

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11/1/16 5:27 AM Christmas Countdown
Welcome to November!
 
The big day is JUST 53 days away! Almost here. May as well get out the Christmas lights and decorate early!
 
1v0NLoo.png


#41
DJ Droppin

Posted 01 November 2016 - 04:55 AM

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[ Model Countdown ]
Next up.... (Not including the NAM as I don't see a need for it at this time.)
*12z GFS in 2 hours 34 minutes
12z GEM/CMC in 3 hours 34 minutes
12z ECMWF in 4 hours 53 minutes
I sure hope something interesting shows up on the runs today. A major pattern shift, the western ridge breaking down, a wind storm, early Fall cold shot. Anything. Really. Anything.



#42
TT-SEA

Posted 01 November 2016 - 05:31 AM

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SEA ends up with 10.05 inches for October... previous record was 8.96 inches which was well above the second place year.     

 

Oh... and its still pouring rain this morning!     Good start on November.   

 

ATX_0.png



#43
TT-SEA

Posted 01 November 2016 - 05:37 AM

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SEA NWS summary of October in the AFD:

 

CLIMATE...The October rainfall total for Seattle ended up at a
record breaking 10.05". The old record was 8.96 inches set in 2003.
October 2003 included the daily record rainfall of 5.02" on October
20th. There were only 14 days with measurable rain in October 2003.
In contrast, October 2016 also set the record for the most days with
measurable rain in the month of October for Seattle with 25 days. The
old record was 23 days set in 1956, 1950 and 1947. 



#44
wx_statman

Posted 01 November 2016 - 05:41 AM

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Almost 50" of rain in the south WA Cascades in October! Graphic courtesy of Mark Nelsen:

 

 

Attached Files


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#45
Jesse

Posted 01 November 2016 - 05:43 AM

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I wonder what the record for 60+ days in November is at PDX.

#46
wx_statman

Posted 01 November 2016 - 05:55 AM

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I wonder what the record for 60+ days in November is at PDX.

 

30 days in 2016?


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#47
wx_statman

Posted 01 November 2016 - 06:00 AM

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SEA NWS summary of October in the AFD:

 

CLIMATE...The October rainfall total for Seattle ended up at a
record breaking 10.05". The old record was 8.96 inches set in 2003.
October 2003 included the daily record rainfall of 5.02" on October
20th. There were only 14 days with measurable rain in October 2003.
In contrast, October 2016 also set the record for the most days with
measurable rain in the month of October for Seattle with 25 days. The
old record was 23 days set in 1956, 1950 and 1947. 

 

28 days with .01" or more at PDX. Previous October record was 23 days.

 

8.31" total fell just short of 8.41" in 1994, though.



#48
TT-SEA

Posted 01 November 2016 - 06:37 AM

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06Z GFS showed many more dry days than we have seen lately... makes sense.



#49
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 November 2016 - 06:40 AM

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I had 17.01" which is just below the record from 1947 for this location. Still pretty impressive ranking right behind Jan 2012, Mar 2012, Dec 2015 in terms of wettest months since I have lived up here. 


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Snowfall

2016-17: 47.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#50
MossMan

Posted 01 November 2016 - 07:23 AM

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Some road flooding going on I noticed on my way to work, the ground is quickly reaching its saturation point, if we get a major atmospheric river event I could foresee some pretty good flooding and landslides happening.