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November 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

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#3401
Timmy_Supercell

Posted Today, 09:08 AM

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Looks like 19 for a low this morning. Mildly chilly. Vehicles are frosted up.


Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR

------------------------------------------------------------

(Personal Winter Totals since 2010)

'10-'11 = 58.20" (161% of normal)

'11-'12 = 49.00" (136% of normal)

'12-'13 = 16.70" (46% of normal)

'13-'14 = 9.05" (25% of normal)

'14-'15 = 2.90" (8% of normal)

'15-'16 = 54.45" (151% of normal)

'16-'17 = 63.00" (175% of normal)

 

Nov '16: 1.20" (30% of normal)

Dec '16: 11.10" (123% of normal)

Jan '17: 29.50" (246% of normal)

Feb '17: 12.90" (161% of normal)

Mar '17: 5.60" (224% of normal)

Apr '17: 2.70"

 

Nov '15: 4.00" (100% of normal) (Avg: 4.00")

Dec '15: 33.10" (367% of normal) (Avg: 9.00")

Jan '16: 10.75" (90% of normal) (Avg: 12.00")

Feb '16: 3.50" (43% of normal) (Avg: 8.00")

Mar '16: 3.10" (124% of normal) (Avg: 2.50")

Apr '16: T

 

OTHER WEATHER DATA

-------------------------------------------------------------

*Max 1 Day Snowfall: 12.40" (01/03/2017)*

*Max Snow Depth: 21.00" (01/07/2017)*, 18.00" (12/24/2015)

Max High (F): 101 (07/02/2013), 99 (07/02/2015)

Min High (F): 6 (12/08/2013), 7 (01/06/2017), 8 (01/05/2017)

Max Low (F): 63 (07/04/2015)

Min Low (F): -20 (12/08/2013), -19 (01/06/2017), -17 (01/05/2017)

Max Wind Gusts:

58-60 (10/15/2016), 60-65 (10/26/2016) ( 55+ MPH (09/12/2016), 67 MPH (01/19/2016), 65 MPH (02/06/2015), 63 MPH (02/05/2015), 62 MPH (02/17/2016),

56 MPH (02/08/2015), 55 MPH (12/03/2015), 58 MPH (10/25/2014), 55 MPH (12/30/2011), 58 MPH (09/04/2011), 54 MPH (03/13/2011), 58 MPH (02/15/2011), 60+ (02/14/2011)

T'storm Days: 11 (2017), 12 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011) - 1980-2015 Avg = 12 Days

Severe T'storms: 4 (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012)

Vicinity Severe T'storms: 9 (dates below)

09/04/2011, 09/12/2011, 08/12/2013, 08/22/2013, 08/04/2014, 08/05/2014, 06/09/2015, 07/05/2015, 07/09/2015

Earliest Warm-Core T'storm: (04/03/2016)

Latest Cold-Core T'storm (06/17/2016)

Latest <32 low (06/18/2014)

Latest "20's" low (06/11/2016) (28 degrees)


#3402
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted Today, 09:12 AM

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36 here. Foggy right now.

#3403
Timmy_Supercell

Posted Today, 09:14 AM

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36 here. Froggy right now.

 

Also pretty froggy here too! But KLMT seems to not be reporting any. 


Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR

------------------------------------------------------------

(Personal Winter Totals since 2010)

'10-'11 = 58.20" (161% of normal)

'11-'12 = 49.00" (136% of normal)

'12-'13 = 16.70" (46% of normal)

'13-'14 = 9.05" (25% of normal)

'14-'15 = 2.90" (8% of normal)

'15-'16 = 54.45" (151% of normal)

'16-'17 = 63.00" (175% of normal)

 

Nov '16: 1.20" (30% of normal)

Dec '16: 11.10" (123% of normal)

Jan '17: 29.50" (246% of normal)

Feb '17: 12.90" (161% of normal)

Mar '17: 5.60" (224% of normal)

Apr '17: 2.70"

 

Nov '15: 4.00" (100% of normal) (Avg: 4.00")

Dec '15: 33.10" (367% of normal) (Avg: 9.00")

Jan '16: 10.75" (90% of normal) (Avg: 12.00")

Feb '16: 3.50" (43% of normal) (Avg: 8.00")

Mar '16: 3.10" (124% of normal) (Avg: 2.50")

Apr '16: T

 

OTHER WEATHER DATA

-------------------------------------------------------------

*Max 1 Day Snowfall: 12.40" (01/03/2017)*

*Max Snow Depth: 21.00" (01/07/2017)*, 18.00" (12/24/2015)

Max High (F): 101 (07/02/2013), 99 (07/02/2015)

Min High (F): 6 (12/08/2013), 7 (01/06/2017), 8 (01/05/2017)

Max Low (F): 63 (07/04/2015)

Min Low (F): -20 (12/08/2013), -19 (01/06/2017), -17 (01/05/2017)

Max Wind Gusts:

58-60 (10/15/2016), 60-65 (10/26/2016) ( 55+ MPH (09/12/2016), 67 MPH (01/19/2016), 65 MPH (02/06/2015), 63 MPH (02/05/2015), 62 MPH (02/17/2016),

56 MPH (02/08/2015), 55 MPH (12/03/2015), 58 MPH (10/25/2014), 55 MPH (12/30/2011), 58 MPH (09/04/2011), 54 MPH (03/13/2011), 58 MPH (02/15/2011), 60+ (02/14/2011)

T'storm Days: 11 (2017), 12 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011) - 1980-2015 Avg = 12 Days

Severe T'storms: 4 (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012)

Vicinity Severe T'storms: 9 (dates below)

09/04/2011, 09/12/2011, 08/12/2013, 08/22/2013, 08/04/2014, 08/05/2014, 06/09/2015, 07/05/2015, 07/09/2015

Earliest Warm-Core T'storm: (04/03/2016)

Latest Cold-Core T'storm (06/17/2016)

Latest <32 low (06/18/2014)

Latest "20's" low (06/11/2016) (28 degrees)


#3404
snow_wizard

Posted Today, 09:24 AM

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The 12z ensemble is only done to day 10, but I like what I see.

Attached Files

  • Attached File  cold.png   211.04KB   0 downloads

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2017-18 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.2"

Coldest Low = 32

Lows 32 or below = 2

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 3

 

 


#3405
snow_wizard

Posted Today, 09:28 AM

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In all honesty, I'll take bone chilling cold over snow if I have to choose. I want both though, I'm greedy. 

 

The best is a big snow followed by wicked cold.  The snow adds to the cold potential.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2017-18 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.2"

Coldest Low = 32

Lows 32 or below = 2

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 3

 

 


#3406
AlpineExperience

Posted Today, 09:30 AM

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The best is a big snow followed by wicked cold. The snow adds to the cold potential.


16 inches of snow followed by hard freeze

#3407
snow_wizard

Posted Today, 09:31 AM

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60 Wednesday?

 

Late  Nov / early Dec is historically a likely time to torch before a great winter.  At any rate it looks to be short lived.                  


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2017-18 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.2"

Coldest Low = 32

Lows 32 or below = 2

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 3

 

 


#3408
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted Today, 09:31 AM

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The best is a big snow followed by wicked cold.  The snow adds to the cold potential.

 

The CFS weeklies are pretty cold for December.


Snowfall

2016-17: 47.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#3409
snow_wizard

Posted Today, 09:33 AM

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16 inches of snow followed by hard freeze

 

Exactly what happened in the EPSL in January 1972.  It, Nov 1985, and Dec 1990 have to be my favorites.  


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2017-18 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.2"

Coldest Low = 32

Lows 32 or below = 2

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 3

 

 


#3410
TT-SEA

Posted Today, 09:34 AM

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Sun trying to break through now...

 

20171118_092916.jpg



#3411
snow_wizard

Posted Today, 09:34 AM

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The CFS weeklies are pretty cold for December.

 

It has been gung ho for December on many runs.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2017-18 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.2"

Coldest Low = 32

Lows 32 or below = 2

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 3

 

 


#3412
AlpineExperience

Posted Today, 09:36 AM

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Exactly what happened in the EPSL in January 1972. It, Nov 1985, and Dec 1990 have to be my favorites.


Iā€™d love to experience a nov 85 in December.

#3413
snow_wizard

Posted Today, 09:37 AM

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Quite ironically this season may end up being my latest low below 32 on record.  That coming in spite of my first low below 40, first low of 32, first high below 40, and first snow all coming early.  SEA also had their earliest high of 40 or below on record.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2017-18 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.2"

Coldest Low = 32

Lows 32 or below = 2

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 3

 

 


#3414
TT-SEA

Posted Today, 09:39 AM

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Quite ironically this season may end up being my latest low below 32 on record.  That coming in spite of my first low below 40, first low of 32, first high below 40, and first snow all coming early.  SEA also had their earliest high of 40 or below on record.

 

No freeze here either... or at SEA.   And nothing likely in sight.   Of course I am making this all up.   :rolleyes:



#3415
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted Today, 09:42 AM

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Quite ironically this season may end up being my latest low below 32 on record.  That coming in spite of my first low below 40, first low of 32, first high below 40, and first snow all coming early.  SEA also had their earliest high of 40 or below on record.

 

Pretty much a normal first freeze date down here. Last winter was by far my latest ever, with no freeze until December 4th. Never looked back from there though. 


Snowfall

2016-17: 47.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#3416
TT-SEA

Posted Today, 09:48 AM

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Pretty much a normal first freeze date down here. Last winter was by far my latest ever, with no freeze until December 4th. Never looked back from there though.


It just comes down to small details and timing. Its does not mean anything and sometimes it can totally flip like last year.

#3417
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted Today, 09:51 AM

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It just comes down to small details and timing. Its does not mean anything and sometimes it can totally flip like last year.

 

November rarely has anything good down here. Even living in the Willamette Valley, early March is much more likely to see sticking snow than November, in my lifetime at least. 

 

I had snow in November 2014 and 15, and both those winters were terrible. 


Snowfall

2016-17: 47.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#3418
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted Today, 09:55 AM

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The GFS ensembles have looked fairly seasonable/chilly toward the very end of the month. 


Snowfall

2016-17: 47.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#3419
snow_wizard

Posted Today, 10:07 AM

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Pretty much a normal first freeze date down here. Last winter was by far my latest ever, with no freeze until December 4th. Never looked back from there though. 

 

It's very interesting how that works out.  Another year that was very late was 1988 and in Seattle it never froze until late December in 1929.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2017-18 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.2"

Coldest Low = 32

Lows 32 or below = 2

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 3

 

 


#3420
snow_wizard

Posted Today, 10:08 AM

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The GFS ensembles have looked fairly seasonable/chilly toward the very end of the month. 

 

The 12z was a clear improvement over the GOA.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2017-18 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.2"

Coldest Low = 32

Lows 32 or below = 2

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 3

 

 


#3421
snow_wizard

Posted Today, 10:11 AM

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No freeze here either... or at SEA.   And nothing likely in sight.   Of course I am making this all up.   :rolleyes:

 

I know it's true, although it's a tremendous fluke there wasn't one really cold night during the early month trough.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2017-18 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.2"

Coldest Low = 32

Lows 32 or below = 2

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 3

 

 


#3422
snow_wizard

Posted Today, 10:16 AM

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Iā€™d love to experience a nov 85 in December.

 

November 1985 was probably as anomalous as January 1950.  For combination of intensity and duration of cold it's unmatched for the month of November.  I think it's somewhat noteworthy 1985 as whole was the coldest year on record for the northern hemisphere over the past several decades.  Our area was represented disproportionately well in the cold department during the mid 1980s.  There is considerable evidence we are huge winners compared to most during global cooling episodes.  Let's hope the solar grand minimum we are just entering treats us the same.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2017-18 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.2"

Coldest Low = 32

Lows 32 or below = 2

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 3

 

 


#3423
TT-SEA

Posted Today, 10:34 AM

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Real distinct snow level line on Mt Si this morning...

 

20171118_101132.jpg


  • Mapsyscon and happ like this

#3424
seattleweatherguy

Posted Today, 10:38 AM

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Wow a high of 60 on wed. Pineapple express?

#3425
TT-SEA

Posted Today, 10:51 AM

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It was looking really dry for the Seahawks game on Monday night... now looking really wet. Front tomorrow night comes right back northward again.

#3426
Phil

Posted Today, 11:29 AM

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The CFS weeklies are pretty cold for December.


I highly doubt December will be cold, except maybe towards the end of the month. January, on the other hand, looks very promising to me. I'm already excited for you guys..

If all goes right and we avoid any geomagnetic storms between now and Christmas, I think January 2018 could dethrone December 2008 as the 21st century's GOAT.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#3427
snow_wizard

Posted Today, 12:00 PM

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I highly doubt December will be cold, except maybe towards the end of the month. January, on the other hand, looks very promising to me. I'm already excited for you guys..

If all goes right and we avoid any geomagnetic storms between now and Christmas, I think January 2018 could dethrone December 2008 as the 21st century's GOAT.

 

I kind of hope you're right, but December could go either way IMO.  I suppose I'm still stuck in the mindset that December has been stealing the show since 1983.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2017-18 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.2"

Coldest Low = 32

Lows 32 or below = 2

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 3

 

 


#3428
snow_wizard

Posted Today, 12:01 PM

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Real distinct snow level line on Mt Si this morning...

 

20171118_101132.jpg

 

Very pretty.


  • TT-SEA likes this

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2017-18 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.2"

Coldest Low = 32

Lows 32 or below = 2

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 3

 

 


#3429
snow_wizard

Posted Today, 12:03 PM

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Looks like we seeing some agreement on a negative PNA episode around day 10.  The 12z ECMWF is on board with a chilly trough at that time.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2017-18 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.2"

Coldest Low = 32

Lows 32 or below = 2

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 3

 

 


#3430
Jesse

Posted Today, 12:29 PM

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That is one hefty torch being advertised around Thanksgiving. Could be multiple 60 degree + days in the region next week.

#3431
BLI snowman

Posted Today, 12:54 PM

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That is one hefty torch being advertised around Thanksgiving. Could be multiple 60 degree + days in the region next week.


50+ lows also a decent bet.

#3432
daniel1

Posted Today, 12:57 PM

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Looks like we seeing some agreement on a negative PNA episode around day 10. The 12z ECMWF is on board with a chilly trough at that time.


Anything for you to try and avoid warmups

#3433
snow_wizard

Posted Today, 12:58 PM

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Anything for you to try and avoid warmups

 

So?

 

I certainly realize it will get warm for a few days this coming week.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2017-18 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.2"

Coldest Low = 32

Lows 32 or below = 2

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 3

 

 


#3434
snow_wizard

Posted Today, 01:00 PM

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That is one hefty torch being advertised around Thanksgiving. Could be multiple 60 degree + days in the region next week.

 

It looks like about 3.5 days where the 850s really get warm.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2017-18 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.2"

Coldest Low = 32

Lows 32 or below = 2

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 3

 

 


#3435
VancouverIslandSouth

Posted Today, 01:39 PM

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Sun trying to break through now...

 

20171118_092916.jpg

 

There's barely any green remaining on the grass on the left side of the road there. Must have been a dry month, that area is clearly struggling for moisture.



#3436
daniel1

Posted Today, 01:43 PM

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So?

I certainly realize it will get warm for a few days this coming week.


Ya but it kills you inside that it's gonna be warm this week.

#3437
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted Today, 02:01 PM

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This is when we want to torch. Then Christmas through January can break cold/snow records.

#3438
Timmy

Posted Today, 02:07 PM

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This is when we want to torch. Then Christmas through January can break cold/snow records.

Hot take!!! šŸ”„šŸ”„šŸ”„šŸ”„

#3439
TT-SEA

Posted Today, 02:18 PM

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There's barely any green remaining on the grass on the left side of the road there. Must have been a dry month, that area is clearly struggling for moisture.


Lack of sun there.

#3440
Timmy

Posted Today, 02:25 PM

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There's barely any green remaining on the grass on the left side of the road there. Must have been a dry month, that area is clearly struggling for moisture.


Do you understand anything about foliage? Or do you assume everything is caused by a non-existent drought?