November 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

[Geos]

Kitsap really getting hammered with rain right now.

 

[MossMan]

Kitsap really getting hammered with rain right now.

 

http://climate.cod.edu/data/nexrad/ATX/N0Q/ATX.N0Q.20171113.0125.gif

We only had about a half hour break in the rain today up here...been a very wet weekend which I’m all for in November!

[ShawniganLake]

[snow_wizard]

Yeah I think you are the only one! I used to pay attention to JB but after a few seasons it was apparent he was major east coast bias.

 

Ya think?

[MossMan]

http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2017/11/a-possible-strong-wind-event-tomorrow.html?m=1

Cliff Mass about the possible windstorm.

[snow_wizard]

Watch the December 15th - January 15th period. Window for your first blast is starting to come into clearer focus, IMO.

 

Sounds like a good window.  I think we could see a minor shot earlier than that though as in modestly chilly and a bit of lowland snow.

[MossMan]

Sounds like a good window. I think we could see a minor shot earlier than that though as in modestly chilly and a bit of lowland snow.

My gut is telling me the last week of November...after a bump near a positive PNA it looks to start crashing again around that time period.

[Jesse]

My gut is telling me the last week of November...after a bump near a positive PNA it looks to start crashing again around that time period.

Did you eat Dewey?

[MossMan]

Did you eat Dewey?

No...if I did my post would have been much more witty and fun!

[TT-SEA]

That’s a pretty big window. I’ve bias corrected it to Dec 5 to Jan 5 in my mind.

 

That is the most perfect window possible in my opinion.   I would like that entire period filled with nothing but snow and cold.  

[Phil]

Migraine-inducing off-equator SSTA warmth (from a seasonal forecasting standpoint).

 

It's getting into "might f**k with things" territory now.

 

[Geos]

We only had about a half hour break in the rain today up here...been a very wet weekend which I’m all for in November!

 

Yeah it was nice to get a break for awhile. I finish up a yard project during the dry spell. 

0.45" of rain so far today. Been really steady in the last hour or so.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

The surface winds have shifted from NE to SE and the Olympic rain shadow is now glaringly obvious .

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Migraine-inducing off-equator SSTA warmth (from a seasonal forecasting standpoint).

 

It's getting into "might f**k with things" territory now.

 

 

So that warm east pacific is going to mess things up huh?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

So that warm east pacific is going to mess things up huh?

 

Mark is polishing his forks.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

In other news, rain moving S to N through the region this evening. 47 with moderate rain now after a balmy 57/44 day. 

[Phil]

So that warm east pacific is going to mess things up huh?

I don't think so. Not in the long run, at least.

[Geos]

Migraine-inducing off-equator SSTA warmth (from a seasonal forecasting standpoint).

 

It's getting into "might f**k with things" territory now.

 

 

So the warm SST's west of Mexico are threatening to over power the La Nina?

[Phil]

What a difference a year makes. Much colder in the Arctic this year. Here's 2017 (top) vs 2016 (bottom):

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/975936A6-1E9C-4165-8237-FFF22A73CD18_zpst5bd04eh.png

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/E1831B0B-405A-4D7D-B8BA-1B159FF06FDA_zpsq6lvnav1.png

[Deweydog]

If my calculations are correct that line of thunderstorms offshore is tracking directly toward Monmouth. Hopefully this track will be a favorable sign for the upcoming winter!

 

E1796135-2E27-485E-A54E-8A0F02C01E44.png

Meanie.

[Jesse]

Meanie.

That’s a good track!

[snow_wizard]

Talk about the Pacific being shut down.  This is RIDICULOUS for November!

 

 

[Phil]

Talk about the Pacific being shut down. This is RIDICULOUS for November!

Wow. Yeah nothing but a sea of anticyclones out there.

[Phil]

So the warm SST's west of Mexico are threatening to over power the La Nina?

Yes and no. Off-equator EPAC convection will expand the Hadley Cell there and could force ridging over the SW US and southern plains this winter (in the absence of strong high latitude blocking).

 

Latitude matters, though. It's not like we're talking about a poleward-shifted Niño SST signature or anything. Off equator convection is pretty typical of La Niña systems, but warmth of this magnitude could really mess with things for awhile.

 

It doesn't matter as much for the PNW, but it certainly does matter for folks in CA and the SW US.

[Deweydog]

WRF puts a little 50 knot bullseye right over the metro area.

 

#doomsdayscenario

[TigerWoodsLibido]

WRF puts a little 50 knot bullseye right over the metro area.

 

#doomsdayscenario

I think this storm is going to sneak up on folks here that don't read these boards. News feels like they are downplaying it. I'm excited.

[seattleweatherguy]

WRF puts a little 50 knot bullseye right over the metro area.

 

#doomsdayscenario

50 knot equal to 55mph?

[Deweydog]

50 knot equal to 55mph?

57.538972401175 mph, give or take.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

WRF puts a little 50 knot bullseye right over the metro area.

 

#doomsdayscenario

Sustained 2m wind?

[Gradient Keeper]

00z WRF shows 45-55kt gusts over PDX metro. I think it's overdoing things. Knock 10-15mph off that, so 30-40mph higher gusts. Yawn.

 

6z GFS in 3 hours 17 minutes!

 

 

00z ECMWF 40-50mph gusts PDX metro

[WeatherArchive]

It's autumn.  Time for a standard autumn storm to stir the leaves. Don't cha think?

[luvssnow_spokane]

Looks like a pretty run of the mill fall storm... sounds nice.

[Front Ranger]

0z GFS is pretty warm for the West from day 7 onward. Strong ensemble support as well.

 

All models now basically support a period of sustained warmth for the West. We'll see how long it lasts. As mentioned a few days ago, leading analogs would suggest it probably lasts through early December at least.

[BLI snowman]

Looks like a pretty run of the mill fall storm... sounds nice.

 

Yeah, mid November is the perfect time for them because it takes care of the leaves as the foliage starts to wane. Aesthetically I like having the trees bare by December.

[BLI snowman]

All models now basically support a period of sustained warmth for the West. We'll see how long it lasts. As mentioned a few days ago, leading analogs would suggest it probably lasts through early December at least.

 

Such an epic call.

[Front Ranger]

Such an epic call.

Epic pattern progressions.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Getting gusts of 31mph and the wind speed is steadily ticking up. Good timing on getting my anemometer fixed and mounted with a more secure pole .

[MikeInEverett]

That squall that just came through was something else. Very heavy rain and gusts between 40-50mph made for a fun five minutes.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

0.72" of rain overnight. Currently 42. 

[Geos]

Winds have been ramping up for awhile. Trees are definitely swaying this morning.