January Weather In the PNW

[Front Ranger]

3/4. He started out as Snow.

I take great pride in the fact that I'm still referred to by my past name, unlike many of the other members who've changed names over the years.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Yeah, but I recall that stuff being downplayed in favor of the as yet unmodeled early January promised land.

At this point I think some of us won't be shocked if the promised land isn't reached until 18-19. 10 year anniversary of the last great one so why not?

[Jesse]

I take great pride in the fact that I'm still referred to by my past name, unlike many of the other members who've changed names over the years.

To me his name has always been:

 

“This post is hidden because you have chosen to ignore posts by ____”

[Bryant]

[TigerWoodsLibido]

7 of the GFS ensemble members have a cold snap after day 10. However, the majority do not.

 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png?hc_location=ufi

[Front Ranger]

If this February turns out cold and snowy in the West, 1989-90 will be the clear Analog Champion of 2017-18.

[Front Ranger]

To me his name has always been:

 

“This post is hidden because you have chosen to ignore posts by ____”

 

I lack the desire or willpower to hide anyone's posts. I'd still want to peek every time.

 

Strange, I know, since I possess the incredible willpower to not look at the GFS past day 10 (as Dewey will remind you).

[luminen]

I can totally see this winter not having any significant cold and/or snow events for the remainder and it's probably more likely it will play out like that. Enjoy the 40F rain.

[Front Ranger]

I can totally see this winter not having any significant cold and/or snow events for the remainder and it's probably more likely it will play out like that. Enjoy the 40F rain.

 

Uh...

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1652-hard-evidence-for-a-cold-pnw-wintermy-nps-index/

[luminen]

Uh...

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1652-hard-evidence-for-a-cold-pnw-wintermy-nps-index/

 

All the analogs and analysis won't bring cold and snow no matter how much they line up. This is the PNW we're talking about.

[Front Ranger]

All the analogs and analysis won't bring cold and snow no matter how much they line up. This is the PNW we're talking about.

 

Great point. Could probably use a little more hard evidence, though.

[Deweydog]

I lack the desire or willpower to hide anyone's posts. I'd still want to peek every time.

 

Strange, I know, since I possess the incredible willpower to not look at the GFS past day 10 (as Dewey will remind you).

We all know. It's otay.

[Front Ranger]

I'm happy to report that OLM is in little danger of a top 5 warm January.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

If I remember from this morning, the EPS 15 day wasn't quite as amazing as yesterday's but it was still ok. What are others' thoughts? When the carrots were dangled previously this winter was there ever a signal that strong 15 days out?

[Deweydog]

I'm happy to report that OLM is in no danger of a top 5 cold January.

Don't be TOO hard on yourself.

[Phil]

I called it a decent retrogression signal.

 

This

 

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_35.png

 

to this

 

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_47.png

 

Is a decent signal for that range, especially in lieu of the all-time bad OP.

Is it a “signal” if only 6 ensemble members show it?

[Phil]

I am no expert on weather and I'm not trying to target anyone here; but why is it being ignored that the 10-14 day range has been good all winter? Once it gets within day 8 or 9 it falls apart just like the trough next week. Is it really any different this time?

Just like how ensemble means will skew towards stability in the long range with higher wavenumbers, when you have a few rogue members that retrograde against streamflow, it will make the entire ensemble mean look that way even if most members don’t actually have a retrogression.

 

It’s not trolling, it’s the law of averages..just from a spatial standpoint.

[Bryant]

If I remember from this morning, the EPS 15 day wasn't quite as amazing as yesterday's but it was still ok. What are others' thoughts? When the carrots were dangled previously this winter was there ever a signal that strong 15 days out?

Why do you care what other people's thoughts are? You've discounted every single good model run over the past few days.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Why do you care what other people's thoughts are? You've discounted every single good model run over the past few days.

Reverse jinx

[FroYoBro]

It feels a bit chilly out there this evening. #winter

[BLI snowman]

Is it a “signal” if only 6 ensemble members show it?

 

Yes. The mean is what it is.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

It feels a bit chilly out there this evening. #winter

You know It's bad when 43 feels chilly.

[Deweydog]

40 degree heavy rain here.

 

#aprilpreview

[TT-SEA]

Sunday continues to trend drier and warmer in the home stretch.

 

A few days ago the trend was all about jet suppression... now it continues to trend farther north and west with the heavy rain.    This is great for the central Cascades.

 

[luvssnow_spokane]

It feels a bit chilly out there this evening. #winter

It was chilly today ...we have a nice pineapple express coming up this weekend. Looks to be some good flooding possibilities. It does not get much better than this!

[TT-SEA]

It was chilly today ...we have a nice pineapple express coming up this weekend. Looks to be some good flooding possibilities. It does not get much better than this!

 

No flooding in our area per the 00Z GFS.   

[luvssnow_spokane]

Sunday continues to trend drier and warmer in the home stretch.

 

A few days ago the trend was all about jet suppression... now it continues to trend farther north and west with the heavy rain.    This is great for the central Cascades.

 

This is good!

[luvssnow_spokane]

No flooding in our area per the 00Z GFS.

 

Super I have not looked I have been traveling the last 5 days and have not been tracking much. Looks like the same 10 day BS is in play. Bummer ...

[HighlandExperience]

Super I have not looked I have been traveling the last 5 days and have not been tracking much. Looks like the same 10 day BS is in play. Bummer ...

We’ve been waiting for winter since December 27th

[weatherfan2012]

You have a long weather forum memory, man.

That initial “ice age” thread I made (while high as a teenager) was over six years ago. I think it was back in November 2011. Either way, bringing it up now feels like typical Dewey lawyering.

it also drew attention on Robert Filex blog Geos and F Guimaraes who both has posted on his blog many of times I remember got very interested in the conversation in that thread I beleave it was Geos and F Guimaraes that Introduced you to Robert Filex site.I just wonder what ever happened to F Guimaraes haven't seen him post in a few years here or on Roberts site.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

We’ve been waiting for winter since December 27th

And some of us since Jan of last year.

[Front Ranger]

It feels a bit chilly out there this evening. #winter

 

Tomorrow will be even cooler.

 

#globalcoolingtrend

[Deweydog]

Silly ol' Celine Dion...

 

576dm over the northern Bering Sea.

[Guest El nina]

Just like how ensemble means will skew towards stability in the long range with higher wavenumbers, when you have a few rogue members that retrograde against streamflow, it will make the entire ensemble mean look that way even if most members don’t actually have a retrogression.

It’s not trolling, it’s the law of averages..just from a spatial standpoint.

So in that range there's always a few really cold members that will change the average?

[Front Ranger]

0z definitely looking more promising by day 8.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GEM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Looks like the 00z ia gunna get good around day 10 again.

[High Desert Mat!]

Looks like the 00z ia gunna get good around day 10 again.

Again?? You say.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Looks like the 00z ia gunna get good around day 10 again.

At least 10 days always looks exciting ... makes it feel like winter.

[Phil]

So in that range there's always a few really cold members that will change the average?

Yes.