January Weather In the PNW

[snow_wizard]

Another reasonably chilly day today.  I ended up with 39 - 29.  Let's hope the yearly average never goes above normal in 2018!

[snow_wizard]

The WPO really starts to tank at the end of the 18z GFS.  The ECMWF ensemble is trending that way also.  That would be a huge help for us.  As much as I hate to see an Aleutian trough it might be what we need to shake things up.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

The WPO really starts to tank at the end of the 18z GFS. The ECMWF ensemble is trending that way also. That would be a huge help for us. As much as I hate to see an Aleutian trough it might be what we need to shake things up.

Your optimism keeps this place going man. Thanks.

[Farmboy]

The 18z has some notable improvements. Still not great, but better.

Any improvements seem to disappear in the long range like a fart in the wind....

[snow_wizard]

Your optimism keeps this place going man. Thanks.

 

I still have high confidence in this winter.  There have been many great winters that didn't even get started until the second half of January.

[snow_wizard]

Any improvements seem to disappear in the long range like a fart in the wind....

 

There pretty good reason to think something will start to pop on the models very soon now with the MJO wave.  If that fails it will be time to worry.

[BLI snowman]

The WPO really starts to tank at the end of the 18z GFS. The ECMWF ensemble is trending that way also. That would be a huge help for us. As much as I hate to see an Aleutian trough it might be what we need to shake things up.

Indeed. I think we're looking at a 3-4 week period at a minimum for offshore blocking to really return with much fervor. But Nina forcing should favor us a lot more by February.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Indeed. I think we're looking at a 3-4 week period at a minimum for offshore blocking to really return with much fervor. But Nina forcing should favor us a lot more by February.

Groundhog Day regional blizzard? I could live that day over and over.

[MossMan]

18Z=same old stuff. Ridge moves too far east, some back door and cold pool action at best.

Baby steps and notches in the right direction though!

[Phil]

I could be wrong again, but I’m seeing another round of deepish eastern troughing late in January following the shake-up during the middle of January (which I originally thought would be an Arctic opportunity in the west, but..lol).

 

Then I think the switch into a classic Niña/-QBO regime in February is still on track. Maybe something like 2007/08 or 2005/06 or maybe 2011/12. Hard to know the specifics, but I’d lean towards +EPO/-PNA and cool NW flow.

[MossMan]

I could be wrong again, but I’m seeing another round of deepish eastern troughing late in January following the shake-up during the middle of January (which I originally thought would be an Arctic opportunity in the west, but..lol).

 

Then I think the switch into a classic Niña/-QBO regime in February is still on track. Maybe something like 2007/08 or 2005/06. Hard to know the specifics, but I’d lean towards +EPO/-PNA and cool NW flow.

So we should put our sleds and snowblowers away until February?

[Jesse]

So we should put our sleds and snowblowers away until February?

Next winter. Unless you live in the foothills.

[Phil]

So we should put our sleds and snowblowers away until February?

I think February will definitely trend towards warmth and ridging in the eastern US, and with the -QBO taking over in the tropical Pacific, the -PNA should be easier to sustain albeit at the expense of the -EPO.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I could be wrong again, but I’m seeing another round of deepish eastern troughing late in January following the shake-up during the middle of January (which I originally thought would be an Arctic opportunity in the west, but..lol).

 

Then I think the switch into a classic Niña/-QBO regime in February is still on track. Maybe something like 2007/08 or 2005/06 or maybe 2011/12. Hard to know the specifics, but I’d lean towards +EPO/-PNA and cool NW flow.

Welp, those anal logs can basically put to bed the hopes for a decent event for the C and S Valley. I think 08 had one onshore snow event for Eugene that melted by the next night. We shall see but I'm not very optimistic, even though Jim is.

[Gradient Keeper]

Indeed. I think we're looking at a 3-4 week period at a minimum for offshore blocking to really return with much fervor. But Nina forcing should favor us a lot more by February.

I would be fine with a Feb 2014 type of event

 

6z GFS in 9 hours 50 minutes

[snow_wizard]

Indeed. I think we're looking at a 3-4 week period at a minimum for offshore blocking to really return with much fervor. But Nina forcing should favor us a lot more by February.

 

It would be awesome if it could start in late January though.  Events that start in January and go into February are often the best of the best.

[snow_wizard]

The temp has already dropped 3 degrees from the max of 39.  The atmosphere is VERY decoupled right now.

[Jesse]

I could be wrong again, but I’m seeing another round of deepish eastern troughing late in January following the shake-up during the middle of January (which I originally thought would be an Arctic opportunity in the west, but..lol).

 

Then I think the switch into a classic Niña/-QBO regime in February is still on track. Maybe something like 2007/08 or 2005/06 or maybe 2011/12. Hard to know the specifics, but I’d lean towards +EPO/-PNA and cool NW flow.

So you’ve officially abandoned the idea of any arctic air affecting us this month? That might be just the reset we’ve been needing.

[Phil]

There’s one wild card left, IMO. The mid/late-January wavetrain (Aleutian Low/Alaska Ridge/Euro Ridge) is the perfect WAFz conduit to the stratosphere. So there’s a chance we could pull off a full-fledged SSW event in late January.

 

If so..then who knows what could happen in February.

[ShawniganLake]

Next winter. Unless you live in the foothills.

Even up this way. February 06 and 08 were pretty lame. Tim and Andrew would be able to enjoy though.

[TT-SEA]

The temp has already dropped 3 degrees from the max of 39.  The atmosphere is VERY decoupled right now.

 

Maybe in your neighborhood.   Not here and not in Seattle... sunny and breezy today.   Very well mixed.    Just perfect out there... air feels very dry.  

 

Grass is also quite green for the dead of winter. 

 

[Phil]

So you’ve officially abandoned the idea of any arctic air affecting us this month? That might be just the reset we’ve been needing.

No, but it’s looking less likely IMO.

 

And lol, maybe.

[TT-SEA]

You can also see that air mass was well mixed in Seattle today... very clear with no haze.    My favorite kind of winter day... the only thing better would be adding some snow on the ground.  

 

[Timmy]

Maybe in your neighborhood. Not here and not in Seattle... sunny and breezy today. Very well mixed. Just perfect out there... air feels very dry.

 

Grass is also quite green for the dead of winter.

 

Make sure you get those mountains in the background

[Deweydog]

Even up this way. February 06 and 08 were pretty lame. Tim and Andrew would be able to enjoy though.

February 2006 gets marginalized because it was a dry hump but that mid month air mass was very formidable though. 504dm thicknesses made it to Spokane for the only time since December 1998.

[TT-SEA]

Make sure you get those mountains in the background

 

Hard not to around here... they are in every direction except to the west. 

[Dave]

Welp, those anal logs can basically put to bed the hopes for a decent event for the C and S Valley. I think 08 had one onshore snow event for Eugene that melted by the next night. We shall see but I'm not very optimistic, even though Jim is.

Dec 2008 was much better than that down here. We had a 3 - 4 day stretch with solid snow cover and cold temps.  It just wasn't historic like much of the PNW was north of here, 

[TT-SEA]

February 2006 gets marginalized because it was a dry hump but that mid month air mass was very formidable though. 504dm thicknesses made it to Spokane for the only time since December 1998.

 

I remember that well... we were up in Bellingham house shopping with my parents and it was crystal clear but cold with a screaming NE wind.  

[MossMan]

Maybe in your neighborhood. Not here and not in Seattle... sunny and breezy today. Very well mixed. Just perfect out there... air feels very dry.

 

Grass is also quite green for the dead of winter.

 

33 here currently.

[Jesse]

33 here currently.

A chilly 42 here after a low of 27.

[TT-SEA]

33 here currently.

 

I think your area is mixed but you are on the edge of the Fraser outflow.    It was only 34 in Bellingham today.   There was a good north wind all the way down the Sound today.  

 

We had downsloping from the outflow through the pass out here so it was a little warmer.    There are some areas that don't get northerly or easterly flow in this pattern and those areas are stagnant.   

 

SEA was 44/31 today.   Respectably chilly but well mixed.  

[ShawniganLake]

February 2006 gets marginalized because it was a dry hump but that mid month air mass was very formidable though. 504dm thicknesses made it to Spokane for the only time since December 1998.

I didn’t know that. Just looking at the climate records, it resulted in some sunny frosty days here. Similar to today.

[ShawniganLake]

That winter was insane. Seattle had about 60" in that time.

The 70” in early February had a very Erie Pennsylvania feel to things on southern Vancouver Island

 

Yates street in downtown Victoria that February

 

[Deweydog]

I didn’t know that. Just looking at the climate records, it resulted in some sunny frosty days here. Similar to today.

It was a worst-case scenario from a low level perspective. From mid February sun angles to the backdoor trajectory to the void of any kind of transition event, it wasn't much to write home about.

[TT-SEA]

The 70” in early February had a very Erie Pennsylvania feel to things on southern Vancouver Island

 

Yates street in downtown Victoria that February

 

E7FAF152-68C8-4136-AF24-3FA42FAA4E57.jpeg

 

That is so frickin cool.  

[BLI snowman]

February 2006 gets marginalized because it was a dry hump but that mid month air mass was very formidable though. 504dm thicknesses made it to Spokane for the only time since December 1998.

It was very impressive, -14c 850mb temps over us.

 

2005-06 was generally interesting from mid February onwards. The early March trough was also impressive.

[Farmboy]

I still have high confidence in this winter. There have been many great winters that didn't even get started until the second half of January.

I'll bet those winters didn't have a gigantic west Pacific warm pool to contend with, though...

[VancouverIslandSouth]

The 70” in early February had a very Erie Pennsylvania feel to things on southern Vancouver Island

 

Yates street in downtown Victoria that February

 

E7FAF152-68C8-4136-AF24-3FA42FAA4E57.jpeg

 

I'd like to order a repeat.

[Deweydog]

I'll bet those winters didn't have a gigantic west Pacific warm pool to contend with, though...

I think the famous last words pool is more of a factor. The latent heat release from Phil and Jim's forecasting hubris is definitely a factor.

[HighlandExperience]

I think the famous last words pool is more of a factor. The latent heat release from Phil and Jim's forecasting hubris is definitely a factor.

They didn’t have Steve pool