Jump to content

Welcome to our forums!

Sign In or Register to gain full access to our forums. By registering with us, you'll be able to discuss, share and private message with other members of our community.

Welcome!

Thanks for stopping by the Weather Forums! Please take the time to register and join our community. Feel free to post or start new topics on anything related to the weather or the climate.


Photo

February 2018 Observations and Discussion

- - - - -

  • Please log in to reply

#1051
Money

Posted 20 February 2018 - 04:25 PM

Money

    Special Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 7939 posts

Maybe we can bag a 985 pressure reading??? Either suppression or a low cutting over Iowa. Rinse and repeat.


Can’t remember the last time there was a track from stl to chi
  • Hawkeye likes this

#1052
hlcater

Posted 20 February 2018 - 04:34 PM

hlcater

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1262 posts
  • LocationHiawatha, Eastern IA

Can’t remember the last time there was a track from stl to chi


Exactly. I’d feel differently if this wasn’t the preferred track of cutters over the past 4 years. We can’t even bag a STL to ORD low, let alone a strengthening one.
  • Hawkeye likes this

2018-19 Snowfall: 

TOTAL: 0.0"

Formerly NWLinn


#1053
Hawkeye

Posted 20 February 2018 - 04:41 PM

Hawkeye

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1497 posts
  • LocationCedar Rapids, IA

A west or nw flow is the only way we can get snow here anymore.  A low coming out of the Rockies, cutting northeast, is now all but guaranteed to be rain here.  Perhaps once every 3-5 years a panhandle low dumps 6+ inches on this area.


  • hlcater likes this

season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#1054
CentralNebWeather

Posted 20 February 2018 - 05:02 PM

CentralNebWeather

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 2021 posts
  • LocationHoldrege, NE
18Z GFS would be historic snowfall in Nebraska. Pretty good chance it doesn’t verify, but I think it shows the potential stormy pattern. As we get later in the year, there is always chances of precipitation type issues with storm tracks that would cut snowfall amounts.

#1055
Tom

Posted 20 February 2018 - 06:11 PM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 16949 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

Another record was set in Chicago:

 

Interestingly, the old record was during the very cold winter of '13-'14 which happened to have a record Feb 20th daily rainfall...

 

 

 

The record rainfall for February 20th was also set at O’Hare (Chicago’s official site) where 1.80-inch had been recorded by late afternoon and still raining, supplanting the old record 1.16-inches in 2014. 


#1056
Tom

Posted 20 February 2018 - 06:31 PM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 16949 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

I started a thread for the Thu/Fri disturbance...

 

http://theweatherfor...rd-disturbance/



#1057
Tom

Posted 20 February 2018 - 06:40 PM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 16949 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

Finally, the potential weekend storm...

 

http://theweatherfor...r-winter-storm/

 

 



#1058
St Paul Storm

Posted 20 February 2018 - 06:46 PM

St Paul Storm

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1680 posts
  • LocationSt. Paul, MN

I started a thread for the Thu/Fri disturbance...

http://theweatherfor...rd-disturbance/

Thanks for starting the thread, Tom. I was involved in a car accident on my way home from work. Someone pulled out and I smashed right into him going 40mph. Probably totaled my new SUV. . Obviously didn’t get a chance to set up the thread. I need a drink, and some snow.

#1059
Tom

Posted 20 February 2018 - 06:50 PM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 16949 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

Thanks for starting the thread, Tom. I was involved in a car accident on my way home from work. Someone pulled out and I smashed right into him going 40mph. Probably totaled my new SUV. . Obviously didn’t get a chance to set up the thread. I need a drink, and some snow.

Oh no!  That's horrible...glad your alright though...cars are replaceable but I can only imagine how much it hurts to see a brand new ride totaled.


  • St Paul Storm likes this

#1060
St Paul Storm

Posted 20 February 2018 - 06:52 PM

St Paul Storm

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1680 posts
  • LocationSt. Paul, MN

Oh no! That's horrible...glad your alright though...cars are replaceable but I can only imagine how much it hurts to see a brand new ride totaled.


Thanks man. A little shaken up and some bumps and bruises but I’m all good. Was on my way to pick up my 16 month old son. Just glad he didn’t have to live thru that.
  • Tom, Snowshoe, NEJeremy and 1 other like this

#1061
gabel23

Posted 20 February 2018 - 07:04 PM

gabel23

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1203 posts
  • LocationShelby, NE

Thanks man. A little shaken up and some bumps and bruises but I’m all good. Was on my way to pick up my 16 month old son. Just glad he didn’t have to live thru that.


Glad your doing good, and glad to hear your boy wasn’t with you. Hopefully you get all covered with the insurance!
  • St Paul Storm likes this

#1062
jaster220

Posted 20 February 2018 - 07:31 PM

jaster220

    St. Joseph Lighthouse January 2014

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 4731 posts
  • LocationKRMY (Marshall, MI) KBEH (work)

Meanwhile back in SWMI, a newly hatched NWS headline has been rolled out by GRR - WInter Swamp Warnings are in effect and look to continue with this pattern! 

 

:( Sure enough, got a txt from my daughter saying the back yards a flood puddle and came home to water in my basement! 3rd time inside a year and it's gettin old already. Getting the OH winter treatment the last two days. I'll say, don't know how anyone who loves snow could survive their winters! Even IA peeps. Just brutal  :(


Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 0.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-helluva stretch!!

 

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#1063
jaster220

Posted 20 February 2018 - 07:43 PM

jaster220

    St. Joseph Lighthouse January 2014

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 4731 posts
  • LocationKRMY (Marshall, MI) KBEH (work)

Thanks for starting the thread, Tom. I was involved in a car accident on my way home from work. Someone pulled out and I smashed right into him going 40mph. Probably totaled my new SUV. . Obviously didn’t get a chance to set up the thread. I need a drink, and some snow.

 

Glad you're ok SPS! What an awful way to ruin an otherwise good day. Plus just the hassle, but like you said, things could've been worse. 12 yrs back, I was doing at least 55 on a state hwy and dude turns left right in front of me! No way to avoid creaming him so I figured I was a goner! Was an old used car from the 90's but the one single airbag for the driver actually worked. It was Christmas Eve but instead of spending the holiday in a hospital, I was able to gather with Fam thanks to the airbag technology. Thankfully I was alone as well so one was enough in my case. 


  • St Paul Storm likes this

Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 0.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-helluva stretch!!

 

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#1064
Niko

Posted 20 February 2018 - 08:01 PM

Niko

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 4869 posts
  • LocationMacomb, MI

Looks like the rain has subsided a bit. Its so mild, it feels great. Temp @ 54F, but falling throughout the nite into the 30s.



#1065
Tony

Posted 20 February 2018 - 08:07 PM

Tony

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1572 posts
  • LocationDuPage County

Thanks for starting the thread, Tom. I was involved in a car accident on my way home from work. Someone pulled out and I smashed right into him going 40mph. Probably totaled my new SUV. . Obviously didn’t get a chance to set up the thread. I need a drink, and some snow.

Glad to hear you are ok. Rough day for sure
  • St Paul Storm likes this

#1066
St Paul Storm

Posted 20 February 2018 - 08:17 PM

St Paul Storm

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1680 posts
  • LocationSt. Paul, MN
Thanks everyone. Rough day for sure but the car is replaceable. It would’ve been better if I had a weather factor to tie into the story. It was just cold and sunny at the time. Ha.
  • Tom, Snowshoe and LNK_Weather like this

#1067
Tabitha

Posted 20 February 2018 - 08:21 PM

Tabitha

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1453 posts
  • LocationBlack Hills / Elev. 3465'

Thanks for starting the thread, Tom. I was involved in a car accident on my way home from work. Someone pulled out and I smashed right into him going 40mph. Probably totaled my new SUV. . Obviously didn’t get a chance to set up the thread. I need a drink, and some snow.

 

It is good that you are all right.

 

Material objects can always be replaced; a life can never be replaced.

 

Just take it slow 'n easy.


  • St Paul Storm and LNK_Weather like this

#1068
james1976

Posted 20 February 2018 - 08:32 PM

james1976

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 4145 posts
  • LocationAplington, IA

Thanks for starting the thread, Tom. I was involved in a car accident on my way home from work. Someone pulled out and I smashed right into him going 40mph. Probably totaled my new SUV. . Obviously didn’t get a chance to set up the thread. I need a drink, and some snow.

Whoa!!!! Not what I was expecting to read when i got in here!!
Glad you are ok. Dang! Obviously a terrible situation but the car is replaceable.
Sounds like you need a good storm to track.
  • St Paul Storm and LNK_Weather like this

#1069
Money

Posted 20 February 2018 - 08:54 PM

Money

    Special Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 7939 posts
SPS crush job

http://www.pivotalwe...0&r=us_mw&dpdt=

#1070
Tom

Posted 21 February 2018 - 04:07 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 16949 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

My goodness, there is going to be one hellova glacier as we head into March if the GEFS/EPS are right across the Plains/Upper MW/W GL's...you guys are in for an epic finish for winter.  00z EPS pretty much agrees with the GEFS that MN is in the heart of it.  Question, any of you in MN have an extra room???  LOL..j/k...but seriously, I think a historic stretch is forthcoming for those who are lucky in the path.


  • Snowshoe, Tony, St Paul Storm and 1 other like this

#1071
Tom

Posted 21 February 2018 - 04:31 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 16949 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

The parade of storm systems will continue as we flip the calendar into March and the next big ticket storm is starting to get picked up on the GEFS/EPS ensembles during the Feb 28th - March 2nd period which lines up quite well with the LRC once again.  With ample blocking over the top, this one has the slow "bowling ball" look to it as March will likely roar at the open.

 

 

gfs-ens_mslpaNorm_us_32.png

 

 

ecmwf-ens_mslpaNorm_us_10.png



#1072
Tony

Posted 21 February 2018 - 06:18 AM

Tony

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1572 posts
  • LocationDuPage County

Looking like more rain for us down the road unfortunately. We could have used this moisture back a month ago.



#1073
Tom

Posted 21 February 2018 - 06:41 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 16949 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

Looking like more rain for us down the road unfortunately. We could have used this moisture back a month ago.


One thing the models may be under playing is the strength of the blocking as they did with the strength of the -PNA/SE ridge in the extended. Both AO/NAO tank big time, esp the NAO which is as close to off the charts as it gets. I’m not saying we will get hit with the weekend storm, but the end of month system has my interest at this range and the opening of March.
  • Clinton likes this

#1074
St Paul Storm

Posted 21 February 2018 - 06:54 AM

St Paul Storm

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1680 posts
  • LocationSt. Paul, MN

My goodness, there is going to be one hellova glacier as we head into March if the GEFS/EPS are right across the Plains/Upper MW/W GL's...you guys are in for an epic finish for winter.  00z EPS pretty much agrees with the GEFS that MN is in the heart of it.  Question, any of you in MN have an extra room???  LOL..j/k...but seriously, I think a historic stretch is forthcoming for those who are lucky in the path.


Come on up Tom! Got an extra set of snowshoes as well. Would be epic hiking with those totals. Whoa.
  • Tom likes this

#1075
Tom

Posted 21 February 2018 - 06:57 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 16949 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

Here's an interesting tweet I just read from a met which coincides to what I just posted above...

 

The tweet relates for Feb & Mar months:

 

 

According to our definition of the NAO, models are calling for the all-time strongest -NAO value observed since our archive (beginning in 1980). The record low value since 1980 is from February 2006 (-2.77sigma). We are seeing models call for -3sigma during late February 2018.



#1076
Tom

Posted 21 February 2018 - 06:59 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 16949 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

This February is going to turn out to be one extreme month when you look back at all the weather events that have and will be taking shape.  My gut tells me March will be filled with the same.



#1077
Tony

Posted 21 February 2018 - 07:11 AM

Tony

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1572 posts
  • LocationDuPage County

Here's an interesting tweet I just read from a met which coincides to what I just posted above...

 

The tweet relates for Feb & Mar months:

According to our definition of the NAO, models are calling for the all-time strongest -NAO value observed since our archive (beginning in 1980). The record low value since 1980 is from February 2006 (-2.77sigma). We are seeing models call for -3sigma during late February 2018.

East Coast folks will be hoping this comes to pass as this usually correlates well with at least 1 blizzard out that way.



#1078
westMJim

Posted 21 February 2018 - 07:19 AM

westMJim

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1120 posts
  • LocationGrand Rapids, mi

Two records were set here in Grand Rapids yesterday 

 

Record Report

248
SXUS73 KGRR 211417
RERGRR

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS, MI
917 AM EST WED FEB 21 2018

...DAILY RECORDS SET AT GRAND RAPIDS MI ON FEBRUARY 20 2018...

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 63 DEGREES WAS SET AT GRAND RAPIDS MI
ON FEBRUARY 20. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 61 SET IN 1930.

A RECORD RAINFALL/PRECIPITATION OF 2.53 INCHES WAS SET AT GRAND
RAPIDS MI ON FEBRUARY 20. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 1.40 INCHES
SET IN 1898.



#1079
westMJim

Posted 21 February 2018 - 07:28 AM

westMJim

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1120 posts
  • LocationGrand Rapids, mi

Two records were set here in Grand Rapids yesterday 

 

Record Report

248
SXUS73 KGRR 211417
RERGRR

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS, MI
917 AM EST WED FEB 21 2018

...DAILY RECORDS SET AT GRAND RAPIDS MI ON FEBRUARY 20 2018...

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 63 DEGREES WAS SET AT GRAND RAPIDS MI
ON FEBRUARY 20. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 61 SET IN 1930.

A RECORD RAINFALL/PRECIPITATION OF 2.53 INCHES WAS SET AT GRAND
RAPIDS MI ON FEBRUARY 20. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 1.40 INCHES
SET IN 1898.

The total precipitation for this February at GRR is now 4.43" That is good for the 4th wettest February in Grand Rapids history.  1st place is 5.77" in 1898 but in looking at the dally reports for that month  I question that amount. (two snow events on back to back days with 1.40" water with 5 and 6" of snow) 2nd place is 1938 with 5.30" and in 3rd place in 1997 with 4.80" 



#1080
Niko

Posted 21 February 2018 - 08:05 AM

Niko

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 4869 posts
  • LocationMacomb, MI

Cloudy and mild w m temps in the 40s. Clearing skies later in the day and turning a bit colder.



#1081
Niko

Posted 21 February 2018 - 08:06 AM

Niko

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 4869 posts
  • LocationMacomb, MI

EC possibility for a major Winterstorm is not outta the question as NAO is forecasted to tank in March (1st week). March can be a cruel month for them.



#1082
LNK_Weather

Posted 21 February 2018 - 09:17 AM

LNK_Weather

    Apparently my posts are garbage

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3328 posts
  • LocationLincoln, NE (The Shaft City)

Dean Wysocki is looking at around March 12 for a pullback and an introduction of Spring.


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK:               Coldest Low: N/A yet

 

 

First flake of the season:         

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#1083
Tom

Posted 21 February 2018 - 09:20 AM

Tom

    Community Mod

  • Mods
  • 16949 posts
  • LocationDes Plaines, IL

Dean Wysocki is looking at around March 12 for a pullback and an introduction of Spring.


Best guess at this point is he’s prob gonna be wrong. Coldest part of LRC will be cycling through during this period. Warmth end of March looks good to me though.

#1084
hlcater

Posted 21 February 2018 - 09:23 AM

hlcater

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1262 posts
  • LocationHiawatha, Eastern IA

Best guess at this point is he’s prob gonna be wrong. Coldest part of LRC will be cycling through during this period. Warmth end of March looks good to me though.


Well your bowling ball is manifesting itself FH168-186, nice looking, but it's a loooooong ways away. I'll start getting excited 2 days out
  • Tom likes this

2018-19 Snowfall: 

TOTAL: 0.0"

Formerly NWLinn


#1085
Niko

Posted 21 February 2018 - 09:27 AM

Niko

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 4869 posts
  • LocationMacomb, MI

@ St. Paul Storm.....

 

Just saw the post about your accident. Glad you are okay. :)


  • St Paul Storm likes this

#1086
gabel23

Posted 21 February 2018 - 09:27 AM

gabel23

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1203 posts
  • LocationShelby, NE

Dean Wysocki is looking at around March 12 for a pullback and an introduction of Spring.

I seen that....he also mentioned last night to buckle up because the next couple weeks are gonna be wintery around here. I'm hoping for a snowy and cold start to march, and warm severe weather time ending to March!!! 


  • Tom and Illinois_WX like this

#1087
gabel23

Posted 21 February 2018 - 09:31 AM

gabel23

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1203 posts
  • LocationShelby, NE

Best guess at this point is he’s prob gonna be wrong. Coldest part of LRC will be cycling through during this period. Warmth end of March looks good to me though.

Tom, I must say your knowledge of the LRC and the current weather pattern is starting to show! Looks like things will get wild for my area once again, I might have a chance at reaching 45+" of snow for the season! Hope you right though about the warm ending to March; I need all the snow gone in time for my annual good Friday golf game. This year the plan is to head up to Tatonka Golf Course up in Northern Nebraska or Table Creek in Nebraska City. I'll go anywhere in the state where it's warm enough!!! 


  • Tom likes this

#1088
LNK_Weather

Posted 21 February 2018 - 09:42 AM

LNK_Weather

    Apparently my posts are garbage

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3328 posts
  • LocationLincoln, NE (The Shaft City)

I seen that....he also mentioned last night to buckle up because the next couple weeks are gonna be wintery around here. I'm hoping for a snowy and cold start to march, and warm severe weather time ending to March!!!


Agreed. Around March 20 is when I start welcoming Spring with open arms. Gimme a good severe season!
  • gabel23 likes this

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK:               Coldest Low: N/A yet

 

 

First flake of the season:         

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#1089
GDR

Posted 21 February 2018 - 10:05 AM

GDR

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1245 posts
I’m excited for the 50s next week

#1090
Niko

Posted 21 February 2018 - 10:58 AM

Niko

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 4869 posts
  • LocationMacomb, MI

According to my calendar, Winter ends mid March. Then, afterwards, its all about preparations for Spring and Easter coming up down the road and etc. :)



#1091
Hawkeye

Posted 21 February 2018 - 11:36 AM

Hawkeye

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1497 posts
  • LocationCedar Rapids, IA

12z Euro 10-day snowfall...  broken record for ec/se Iowa... if no wnw/nw flow, no snow.  The pattern is pretty active, with bowling ball potential, but odds are it'll be mostly rain for us.

 

Attached File  ecmwf_acc_snow_conus_240.png   188.4KB   2 downloads


  • hlcater likes this

season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#1092
Stacsh

Posted 21 February 2018 - 12:21 PM

Stacsh

    New Member

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 90 posts
  • LocationGrand Haven, MI

Curious to see if the GFS continues to spin a low up south of Chicago middle of next week.  



#1093
hlcater

Posted 21 February 2018 - 12:39 PM

hlcater

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1262 posts
  • LocationHiawatha, Eastern IA

12z Euro 10-day snowfall...  broken record for ec/se Iowa... if no wnw/nw flow, no snow.  The pattern is pretty active, with bowling ball potential, but odds are it'll be mostly rain for us.
 
attachicon.gifecmwf_acc_snow_conus_240.png


24" for SE SD and S MN, they've been spoiled lately, while the hwy 30 corridor in NE and Iowa have been picking up scraps for years now. If this pattern ever changes and we get a big storm, it might be a rude awakening.

2018-19 Snowfall: 

TOTAL: 0.0"

Formerly NWLinn


#1094
Tabitha

Posted 21 February 2018 - 02:49 PM

Tabitha

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1453 posts
  • LocationBlack Hills / Elev. 3465'

The 12z EC Control looks like the Blizzard of the Century up through Nebraska & central South Dakota on Day 9.  More than 2 inches L.E.

 

It would be nice if it shifted 150 miles to the west...

 

If this March 2nd storm does not shift westward by at least 250 miles; I will experience the most profound sorrow...

 

Time is running out; so I will need to put a Spell on the Atmosphere to Effectuate a Westward Shift.

 

*Looks for Her Spell Book*



#1095
Tabitha

Posted 21 February 2018 - 02:52 PM

Tabitha

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1453 posts
  • LocationBlack Hills / Elev. 3465'

If this March 2nd storm does not shift westward by at least 250 miles; I will experience the most profound sorrow...

 

Time is running out: so I will need to put a Spell on the Atmosphere to Effectuate a Westward Shift.

 

*Looks for Her Spell Book*

 

Ah; found it....

 

Thou amber moon

Thou crimson witch

Summon the black wolf

And his howling b*tch

 

I am tied to them

Forever and On

So I lift up My Cup

And adore Babylon!



#1096
Tabitha

Posted 21 February 2018 - 02:57 PM

Tabitha

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1453 posts
  • LocationBlack Hills / Elev. 3465'

Now that that is done; the slow westward shift should commence with the 0z Suite...

 

It may take a few runs to get it into the proper location.

 

These things must be handled delicately.



#1097
bud2380

Posted 21 February 2018 - 03:04 PM

bud2380

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1882 posts
  • LocationNorth Liberty, IA

the 18z GFS has 4 separate systems tracking the SLP directly through Iowa.  The Iowa SLP magnet is real. I'd actually love to start seeing some 50s and 60s in the extended.  Last year at this time temps hit the 70s in Eastern Iowa.  I even went golfing in shorts it was so nice out.  


  • Hawkeye and jaster220 like this

#1098
Tabitha

Posted 21 February 2018 - 03:35 PM

Tabitha

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1453 posts
  • LocationBlack Hills / Elev. 3465'

Wier blier, limber lock,
Three geese in a flock
One flew east. One flew west
One flew over the cuckoo's nest!



#1099
Tabitha

Posted 21 February 2018 - 08:43 PM

Tabitha

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1453 posts
  • LocationBlack Hills / Elev. 3465'

Now that that is done; the slow westward shift should commence with the 0z Suite...

 

It may take a few runs to get it into the proper location.

 

These things must be handled delicately.

 

It seems My Spell worked too well; as the March 3rd storm jumped 400 miles to the N&W (on the 0z GFS); rather than the 250 I was aiming for.

 

I need to work on My Aim.

 

Though it now looks like a 2nd wave is developing at 240 HRS...late on March 3rd.

 

Ended up rather flat...in a flow that quickly went zonal.

 

We'll work on it.

 

Its the GFS anyway...lol.



#1100
Tabitha

Posted 21 February 2018 - 11:08 PM

Tabitha

    Daily Contributor

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1453 posts
  • LocationBlack Hills / Elev. 3465'

Now that that is done; the slow westward shift should commence with the 0z Suite...

 

It may take a few runs to get it into the proper location.

 

These things must be handled delicately.

 

Working with the ECMWF; as the heavy snow closed to within about 125 miles of here with the 0z run.


  • OKwx2k4 likes this