Super Bowl Weekend Snow

[Money]

RAP now showing 9-10 inches of snow in SE W

 

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rap&p=snku_acc&rh=2018020317&fh=21&r=conus&dpdt=

 

HRRR with 8+ as well

[VMB443]

RAP now showing 9-10 inches of snow in SE W

 

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rap&p=snku_acc&rh=2018020317&fh=21&r=conus&dpdt=

 

HRRR with 8+ as well

My gut tells me this is going to over perform - we’ve had a lot of under performers so you’d have to think eventually the law of averages is going to catch up. At times we are getting some nice bursts of snow.

[Tom]

St Paul getting rocked for a little while...radar looks great up by you...

[Tony]

Lots of dry air to overcome by Chi-town as usual

[Money]

My gut tells me this is going to over perform - we’ve had a lot of under performers so you’d have to think eventually the law of averages is going to catch up. At times we are getting some nice bursts of snow.

18z RAP coming in even better for your area with 10-11 now

[hlcater]

18z RAP coming in even better for your area with 10-11 now

Is this your first potential 6+ of the season?

[Money]

Is this your first potential 6+ of the season?

Yeah we’ve probably only had 7 or 8 total inches of snow this winter. There was one clipper early on that gfs had over here with 6+ within 24 hours of the event but shifted north and hit GB instead

[Hoosier]

Lots of dry air to overcome by Chi-town as usual

This is looking to be a dud in Chicago metro...maybe 1-2" tops for the most part.

[St Paul Storm]

Getting raked right now. Mega flakes.

[Tony]

This is looking to be a dud in Chicago metro...maybe 1-2" tops for the most part.

Yep, story of our winter. Next week will probably end up being a dud as well when all is said and done. Potential is there for some

[Tony]

I'm still holding out for some lake influence to hopefully kick in and over perform. On e can always hope.

[Madtown]

just got added to the wwa

[FV-Mike]

This is looking to be a dud in Chicago metro...maybe 1-2" tops for the most part.

Hasn't the forecast always been 1-3 inches for the weekend? Still think lakeside there will be some 3+ 

[Money]

Moderate snow with huge flakes now

 

Def increasing in intensity last 30 mins

[WBadgersW]

At work... Seems like things are looking more snowy?

[Madtown]

looks like a band is setting up 30mi north of me

[VMB443]

Things seem to be skirting just north of me, hope that’s not a trend.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Things seem to be skirting just north of me, hope that’s not a trend.

Its the OmaDome, it decided to pay Milwaukee a visit. Enjoy!

[hlcater]

In other news, nice band of rain over Iowa. It's not snow, but it IS QPF, which is better than nothing, especially this season. Temps are also way over performing, up to 45 degrees at the airport.

[St Paul Storm]

Should have another 2 hours or so of snowfall. Gonna end up exceeding the predicted amounts I think. At least 3” out there now. Still snowing moderately.

[Money]

just got added to the wwa

Latest HRRR with 6+ for you

 

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=snku_acc&rh=2018020319&fh=17&r=us_mw&dpdt=

[VMB443]

Its the OmaDome, it decided to pay Milwaukee a visit. Enjoy!

I’m definitely feeling some Nebraska pain right now - hoping it is just a passing malady.

[Tabitha]

Some pretty heavy snow just moved in here out of the blue at 1:35 PM MDT with a temperature of 41 F...as a sharp cold front is moving through.

 

Started the day with bare ground and just 15.5" of snow on the winter.

 

Hopefully, there will be some improvement there.

[Madtown]

me as well. dusting on concrete and nothing coming for the sky...painful

[Money]

About 2.7 on the ground so far and coming down good. Been snowing since 10/11 ish

[hlcater]

Despite radar indicating rain here, it is actually not doing anything, and when it does precipitate, it falls as snow. Must be quite a bit of dry air and evaporative cooling.

[Tabitha]

Some pretty heavy snow just moved in here out of the blue at 1:35 PM MDT with a temperature of 41 F...as a sharp cold front is moving through.

 

Started the day with bare ground and just 15.5" of snow on the winter.

 

Hopefully, there will be some improvement there.

 

Temp fell from 41 F to 34 F in 30 minutes and the snow is accumulating on grassy surfaces...

 

 

Edit: Down to freezing  / 32 F at 2:25 PM MDT.

 

 

HRDPS; the only model I trust; has 0.4 LE through Hour 24.

[WBadgersW]

North it is. Fondy and Sheboygan are going to be the winners.

[Niko]

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...A long duration of widespread accumulating snow late tonight through Sunday evening. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches are expected. * WHERE...Genesee, Lapeer, St. Clair, Livingston, Oakland and Macomb Counties. * WHEN...From 1 AM to 7 PM EST Sunday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions Sunday. Be prepared for reduced visibilities at times. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow covered roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving. 

[FarmerRick]

Temp fell from 41 F to 34 F in 30 minutes and the snow is accumulating on grassy surfaces...

 

 

Edit: Down to freezing  / 32 F at 2:25 PM MDT.

 

 

HRDPS; the only model I trust; has 0.4 LE through Hour 24.

 

 

Something is better than nothing, which is what we'll likely get.  

[Money]

Around 4 so far and coming down good

 

1 inch the last hour or so

[Tabitha]

Something is better than nothing, which is what we'll likely get.  

 

It continues to snow here; generally not too heavily.

 

Temp was down to 17 F @ 4:35 PM MDT...down 24 degrees in just 3 hours.

 

There is a big canyon off the back of my property and it very, very, windy there.  Thus, telling the difference between falling snow and blowing snow is not so easy.

 

I hope Nebraska sees a nice snowfall.

 

[Money]

Already 3 fatalities in FDL

 

Nasty outside

[VMB443]

Coming down here again - pretty heavy.

[Tabitha]

It continues to snow here; generally not too heavily.

 

Temp was down to 17 F @ 4:35 PM MDT...down 24 degrees in just 3 hours.

 

There is a big canyon off the back of my property and it very, very, windy there.  Thus, telling the difference between falling snow and blowing snow is not so easy.

 

I hope Nebraska sees a nice snowfall.

 

 

At 5:20 PM MDT the snow is coming down a bit more earnestly and the temperature has fallen back to about 14 F. There is also some fog & blowing snow.

 

Wind has slackened considerably and is light out of the north.

[jaster220]

WWA for 3-5" overnight looks solid. Local grid has 100% SNOW for tonight and Sunday. Haven't seen back-2-back periods with 100% since idk when? Winds are up which means dynamic system, not a whimpy dying system. Night time cooling will bring the snow line south, tho not sure at what hour exactly??

[jaster220]

Nice AFD by GRR. They even think up to 4" for Monday night along 94.

 

 

SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)

Issued at 300 PM EST Sat Feb 3 2018

 

No changes are going to be made with the headlines with this

forecast package. The only things that might need to be adjusted

with time would be an upgrade to a warning across the NW if snow

falls to heavily, or some slight adjustments with regards to

expiration times depending on the timing of the impactful snow out

of the area on Sun.

 

We are still thinking a general 3-6 inch event for much of the area,

with locally higher amounts across the NW of up to 10 inches through

Sunday. The duration of the snow across the NW will keep those

accumulations from being too high of an impact. The heaviest snow

will be across the NW portion of the area through tonight and will

diminish Sun morning as the front sinks far enough SE and offshore

flow takes shape.

 

The heaviest snow for the SE portion of the area will come overnight

tonight and through Sunday morning. This comes as the sfc front will

sink into that portion of the area, and the upper wave passage takes

place. There is fairly good consensus amongst the models, so we feel

good at this time with the advisory.

 

Some lake effect will be possible along the immediate lakeshore

counties late Sun and Sun night with NNW flow and colder air coming

back in. This lake effect should not be of much consequence as the

ridging coming in the wake of the Sun upper wave will drive

inversion heights down to around 3-4k feet AGL.

 

We will not have to wait long then for our next synoptic snow event

in this active pattern taking shape over the nrn CONUS. We will see

a jet streak dive SE out of Canada and ride along the U.S./Canadian

border. There is not much of a sfc low with this system, but there

is quite a bit of stronger mid-level fgen that develops and moves

through as a result of the RRQ of the strong jet streak.

 

This will focus much of the snow late Mon and mainly Mon night

across the South. The lakeshore may see some slightly elevated

amounts with lake enhancement occurring with a wrly low level flow.

Right now it looks like up to about 4 inches will be possible

(highest South). The details still are a bit uncertain, especially

with it being a fgen event and where bands may set up.

 

Latest map for this storm:

 

[Madtown]

That dumped. 4:00 to 5:40...2" sitting at 3" right now.

[Tom]

It's rippin' snow outside....everything is covered with a solid coating...

[Niko]

It will get nasty here later tanite. Winds are alittle gusty now.