MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 So the maps Tim posted showed the following highs for SLE Monday: 36Tuesday: 38Wednesday: 41 If that verified that is very cold for this time of year. Looks like 850's bottom out around -12/-13 for the Willamette Valley. Would be the coldest upper level airmass since December 2013. I am betting the temps will be colder at the surface as well. 1 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 Impressive lows this morning across Oregon AST 27PDX 26SLE 23EUG 22MDF 21TDS 20PDT 16RDM 4 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 What is the EURO showing for lows next week? Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 So nice to have action in the forecast inside of a week. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 I have generated a new 7 day forecast for TigerWoodsLibido 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 Through Day 15 EPS has the block axis at 150-160 W with a fairly strong signal for it and a cold trough. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 What is the EURO showing for lows next week?21 in Monmouth with thicknesses dropping close to that 522 and below threshold which would actually allow for onshore, BSF snow, esp in heavier showers/bands. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaya Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 I see Jaya is online...what are your thoughts on the upcoming pattern?I think the pattern transition looks like a good bet. The details are a few days from being known, but it looks promising for cold and possibly some lowland snow. All I can say at this time. Nothing you all don't know. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 4km GFS showing about a 750 ft snow level tonight, especially away from the water. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 I have generated a new 7 day forecast for TigerWoodsLibido Looks pretty plausible Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 The 12z EURO looks superb! Arctic air arrives on February 19th. Once the Arctic air entrenches itself in the Columbia River Basin it's going to be hard to scour it out without an overrunning event happening. Plus snow_wizard said late February Arctic Blast are rarely dry so we also have that going for us. Onto the 18z GFS in a couple hours and 00z model runs tonight! ❄❄❄ http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2018021312/144/850t.na.png 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeInEverett Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 Just realized if we do get snow on Sunday, all snow events this season will have fallen on Sunday’s (11/5, 12/24, 2/18) and be spaced out very evenly. 11/5-12/24 (50 days) 12/24-2/18 (58 days). Quote (Previous name: MillCreekMike) Everett, WA (elev. 180’) 2023-2024 Snowfall: 1/11: Tr. 1/18: Tr. Go M’s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 Day 15 EPS is simply beautiful. This is the type of pattern that was very common back in the 17th-19th centuries, but has been relatively rare since. 4 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 Yesterday the sounding for Bremerton was -2c 850 in the afternoon with light north flow and they hit 44 my home hit 40. The temps seem warm to me shown at the surface. But it also is very hard to predict how cold the outflow will be as well. Its not linear. There are many factors. The general thinking on here was that -11C with sunshine and bare ground results in 40 for a high in mid February. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Farmboy Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 I have generated a new 7 day forecast for TigerWoodsLibido Back to BSF by next Tuesday/Wednesday? Quote "Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 The 12z EURO looks superb! Arctic air arrives on February 19th. Once the Arctic air entrenches itself in the Columbia River Basin it's going to be hard to scour it out without an overrunning event happening. Plus snow_wizard said late February Arctic Blast are rarely dry so we also have that going for us. Onto the 18z GFS in a couple hours and 00z model runs tonight! ❄❄❄ http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2018021312/144/850t.na.pngThe 850mb temperatures over NE-Canada have been absolutely insane this month. Down to -47.7C at one point last week, just east of the Hudson Bay, on reanalysis. It’s actually not unusual to go many years without 850s coming anywhere close to -40C there. FWIW, the sub -40C 850s have persisted for almost two weeks now, and they don’t look to be going anywhere until the SSW takes out the TPV late in the month. Have to look back to January 1993/94 to find anything close, and even that airmass wasn’t quite as intense at 65N. Not to mention we’re a month later into the season this time. 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 Doesn't get any better than this... http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gifI can't remember last time I seen that much below normal. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 Its not linear. There are many factors. The general thinking on here was that -11C with sunshine and bare ground results in 40 for a high in mid February. This why I love weather. Now I will be very interested to see the high. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 I can't remember last time I seen that much below normal. 2014 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 One last beautiful day... 47 and sunny here. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 Redmond, OR up to 49 after a morning low of 4. Horse Ridge east of Bend with a 45/-16 day so far. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 Redmond, OR up to 49 after a morning low of 4. Horse Ridge east of Bend with a 45/-16 day so far.There have been some huge swings with this airmass in the bc interior the past couple days too. Puntzi mountain had a -34/20 day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 There have been some huge swings with this airmass in the bc interior the past couple days too. Puntzi mountain had a -34/20 day. I enjoy these continental airmasses for that reason. The cold airmasses in late October 2002 and 2006 were special to me for that reason. It is hard for places like Salem and Eugene to get into the teens in mid-winter so an airmass that can allow EUG to hit 17 and 16 respectively in late October is pretty incredible and one of the key factors is low dewpoints. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 18Z ICON really digs that trough in favourably this weekend. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 18Z ICON really digs that trough in favourably this weekend. 3CE69B0F-407A-42B5-A507-1F0503DC0C07.png The ICON only goes out to 120 hours on the 06 and 18z runs, but it looks incredible. Here is hour 120 with a close up view...Looks a lot like the 12z GEM did later on... Also a big improvement over the 12z ICON. 3 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 13, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 ICON ALERT! 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 Notable NPAC circulation changes: 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 Even on the 1971-2000 baseline, global SSTs are close to average now. Increased tropical wind speeds (thanks to the descending -QBO and SSW reducing the static stability integral) have removed some OHC via evaporative feedback. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 Currently playing out on Mt HoodRescue mission for many climbers because of ground conditions. Looks like one may have died ( this particular climber they were preforming cpr for a long time before the chopper got him/her out...still waiting to see if this climber made it).Amazing these choppers can get into these areas. Almost near the summit 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 Katu is running a live stream from a chopper Spoke to soon, live stream offline now Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 Weather channel also running live coverage from there Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 12z EPS for Everett looks amazing. Seattle ends up around 2 inches. Portland ends around 3. Bellingham around 3 as well. Not sure if ensembles can pick up on mesoscale features like CZs, but this lends me to believe they can considering Everett is so much higher than surrounding locations. Interesting.I have hope that we will get in on the action. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 Currently playing out on Mt HoodRescue mission for many climbers because of ground conditions. Looks like one may have died.Amazing these choppers can get into these areas. Almost near the summitHopefully this doesn't play out like the attempted rescue of climbers in 2002 where a Blackhawk crashed Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 Through hour 126 the 18z isn't as good yet... Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 Hopefully this doesn't play out like the attempted rescue of climbers in 2002 where a Blackhawk crashed D**n I remember that. I think it was May? GFS looks like it will be fine... Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 Hopefully this doesn't play out like the attempted rescue of climbers in 2002 where a Blackhawk crashedI remember watching that one live. Could not believe I was watching it actually play out. I remember yelling out Noooooo! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 Wander the yard enjoying the sunshine just now and took some 'before' pics and then will compare after we return. Although this is already after a couple solid freezes the last two nights... including 26 this morning. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 Spring plants will be put on pause for a bit with this pattern coming up. GFS snowfall through 180. 1 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 The 18Z GFS looks significantly less good than the 12Z. Unfortunately, the block is further east therefore we don't have as much cold air here in the PNW. Hopefully it gets better. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 The 18Z GFS looks significantly less good than the 12Z. Unfortunately, the block is further east therefore we don't have as much cold air here in the PNW. Hopefully it gets better. 18Z = 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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