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February Weather in the Pacific Northwest

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#2651
Tyler Mode

Posted 14 February 2018 - 04:16 PM

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Favor to ask, if you post a webcam image, can you post the actual image vs. a link?  If you are trying to show how deep the snow is etc, and it's a live image, the point doesn't come across.

 

:D


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#2652
WSmet

Posted 14 February 2018 - 04:16 PM

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 why is it an issue to say it was Joe Zagrodnik?

6d1RBvZ.jpg

Good, you did your research, it doesn't detract from the fact that I'M NOT at liberty to divulge. Got it?



#2653
Front Ranger

Posted 14 February 2018 - 04:18 PM

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Lol. If that ain’t proof the NAO turns the PNA on, I don’t know what is.

When you think about it, the Pacific has been “going it alone” this winter (for the most part), without any downstream help since November. I think the results have spoken for themselves.

 

This is kinda open to interpretation. Yeah, the winter has sucked mostly to this point in the PNW and most of the West, but it's been epic for much of MT and pretty darn cold over much of the country, especially the northern tier. Just looking at things from a bigger picture angle.

 

Attached File  60dTDeptUS.png   104.33KB   0 downloads


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#2654
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 14 February 2018 - 04:23 PM

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This is kinda open to interpretation. Yeah, the winter has sucked mostly to this point in the PNW and most of the West, but it's been epic for much of MT and pretty darn cold over much of the country, especially the northern tier. Just looking at things from a bigger picture angle.

 

attachicon.gif60dTDeptUS.png

 

It is almost as if there is some kind of impenetrable geographical barrier preventing cold from reaching us! 


Snowfall

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

Robert Mueller is a traitor to this nation.


#2655
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 14 February 2018 - 04:24 PM

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What suggests this will be different? This looks like a pretty typical bleed preceded by cold onshore flow.

 

BUZZ KILL

 

I guess the fact the cold air seems to pour in pretty quickly on the models...


Snowfall

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

Robert Mueller is a traitor to this nation.


#2656
Arctic Front

Posted 14 February 2018 - 04:26 PM

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Good, you did your research, it doesn't detract from the fact that I'M NOT at liberty to divulge. Got it?


By research, you mean use the search function? It's Twitter and it's public. If he didn't want people knowing his thoughts, he wouldn't tweet them.
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#2657
Jesse

Posted 14 February 2018 - 04:29 PM

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This is kinda open to interpretation. Yeah, the winter has sucked mostly to this point in the PNW and most of the West, but it's been epic for much of MT and pretty darn cold over much of the country, especially the northern tier. Just looking at things from a bigger picture angle.

 

attachicon.gif60dTDeptUS.png

 

It's actually pretty unusual to see much of Montana that cold with basically nothing making it our way.



#2658
Geos

Posted 14 February 2018 - 04:32 PM

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This is kinda open to interpretation. Yeah, the winter has sucked mostly to this point in the PNW and most of the West, but it's been epic for much of MT and pretty darn cold over much of the country, especially the northern tier. Just looking at things from a bigger picture angle.

 

attachicon.gif60dTDeptUS.png

 

Continental Divide is pretty much the division between warm and cold.


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 24.41", 08/04

 

2017-2018 winter snowfall total: 9.0", 3/23

Weather station/wx cam: http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2
https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#2659
MR.SNOWMIZER

Posted 14 February 2018 - 04:35 PM

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I am pretty f***** thrilled we could see an actual arctic front. 

 

I don't even remember the last time we had one of those... February 2011, November 2010?! The last one I can remember was November 2010. The December 14, 2008 one was also very defined!

 

Even the big arctic blasts in 2013/14 kind of filtered in. 

A front like December 1990 would blow peoples minds around here. I still remember what this area can do when things are perfect. Been so long.


We come from the land of the ice and snow.


#2660
MR.SNOWMIZER

Posted 14 February 2018 - 04:38 PM

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What suggests this will be different? This looks like a pretty typical bleed preceded by cold onshore flow.

 

Be easy on him, He's the man on the silver mountain.


We come from the land of the ice and snow.


#2661
Front Ranger

Posted 14 February 2018 - 04:41 PM

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It's actually pretty unusual to see much of Montana that cold with basically nothing making it our way.


Definitely. As sucky as things have been, it's not like the large-scale pattern has been all that far off from being good. Blocking has been there, and cold air has been close on several occasions.

Nothing at all like most of the suckfests of the past couple decades. Plus, this winter is about to actually deliver some real cold to the West. :)

Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#2662
Jesse

Posted 14 February 2018 - 04:45 PM

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Definitely. As sucky as things have been, it's not like the large-scale pattern has been all that far off from being good. Blocking has been there, and cold air has been close on several occasions.

Nothing at all like most of the suckfests of the past couple decades. Plus, this winter is about to actually deliver some real cold to the West. :)


Doesn’t take away from Phil’s point that certain pattern drivers have been unfavorable for much of the far west until recently, though.
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#2663
Esquimalt

Posted 14 February 2018 - 04:51 PM

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Clown range, d10-15 18z GFS. Such a beautiful pattern.

Easy WHEM Hadley Cell contraction, convective ventilation of the deep tropics, large scale radiative loss to space via latent heat release in the mid/upper tropical troposphere, dehydration of the tropical stratosphere, reduced cloud cover at the pole, and increased cloud cover in the tropics.

NG66MG8.png

What does this pattern mean for us in the PNW? More cooler than normal temperatures, without the arctic air I assume? 



#2664
Front Ranger

Posted 14 February 2018 - 04:58 PM

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Doesn’t take away from Phil’s point that certain pattern drivers have been unfavorable for much of the far west until recently, though.


Well, that much is obvious. But he seemed to be inferring that the large scale pattern drivers are finally turning favorable for cold, when if you live in MT or anywhere in the northern tier, you've done just fine this winter without his coveted -NAO/-PNA combo.

The dominant factor this winter has undoubtedly been the -EPO, and that's not changing with this upcoming cold period. The main difference is it's finally a more favorable block for the West overall.

It may or may not be a direct result of the SSW. Sometimes those lead to good things for the West, sometimes they don't. Regardless, this cold season has had nice blocking since it started, which is why places as close as Montana have had the winter they've had. Not like we're seeing a flip from a 1999-00.

Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#2665
Deweydog

Posted 14 February 2018 - 05:00 PM

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BUZZ KILL

I guess the fact the cold air seems to pour in pretty quickly on the models...


Maybe I'm missing something. I haven't been paying a ton of attention.

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#2666
BLI snowman

Posted 14 February 2018 - 05:06 PM

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I am pretty f***** thrilled we could see an actual arctic front.

I don't even remember the last time we had one of those... February 2011, November 2010?! The last one I can remember was November 2010. The December 14, 2008 one was also very defined!

Even the big arctic blasts in 2013/14 kind of filtered in.


It looks pretty anemic down here. Without much gorge outflow it's going to be tough to stay below 38-39 on Monday.

#2667
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 14 February 2018 - 05:42 PM

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gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_24.png

 

hmmmm

 

It just misses us. This seems reminiscent of the BC slider that pummeled the southern half of the Willamette Valley back in December 2013. Still 6 days out so plenty of time for this to change and clobber somebody in the PNW.



#2668
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 14 February 2018 - 05:46 PM

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It just misses us. This seems reminiscent of the BC slider that pummeled the southern half of the Willamette Valley back in December 2013. Still 6 days out so plenty of time for this to change and clobber somebody in the PNW.


Definitely could be like that Feb, 2014 event too.

Monmouth, Oregon Winter 17-18 Stats:

 

Coldest high: 34 (Dec 24)

Coldest low: 22 (Dec 11 & Feb 23)

Total snowfall: 1"

Last snowfall: February 21-22, 2018

Last accumulating snowfall on roads: March 6, 2017

Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)

Last White Christmas: 2008

 

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope


#2669
Jesse

Posted 14 February 2018 - 05:48 PM

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It looks pretty anemic down here. Without much gorge outflow it's going to be tough to stay below 38-39 on Monday.

 

Not feeling the February 15-16, 1956 analog anymore?



#2670
snow_wizard

Posted 14 February 2018 - 06:00 PM

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A front like December 1990 would blow peoples minds around here. I still remember what this area can do when things are perfect. Been so long.

 

I think the last real flash freeze Arctic front we had was November 2010.  That was the real deal for sure.  This one sure looks like it will be decent with 850s crashing to -13 or so.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2017-18 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.7"

Coldest Low = 19

Lows 32 or below = 51

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 21

 

 


#2671
jaya

Posted 14 February 2018 - 06:01 PM

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What suggests this will be different? This looks like a pretty typical bleed preceded by cold onshore flow.

Most cold air west of the Cascades comes in from aloft (with exception to the small region around the gaps in the terrain.  Air aloft is cold with this system.  It looks cold. 

 

For snow, I want to see a low drop south to the west of the Olympics try to put some warm air advection over the top of a southward advancing cold front. The slower the movement, the better the snowfall amounts.

 

With the cold air aloft and the cooling air from the north, I think that snow-water ratios should be better than 10 to one with this setup (so amounts may over perform what the models show.  I am hoping that Sunday will be a nice and snowy one, and that the snow will stick around for a couple of days or so.  

 

I also like the eastward run to run shift of that next low toward midweek.  Warm air advection into a cold air mass can be good for snow that moves farther into the cold air than models indicate. It will be fun to see how things progress.

 

It looks like things may stay interesting into the first week of March.



#2672
snow_wizard

Posted 14 February 2018 - 06:02 PM

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Not feeling the February 15-16, 1956 analog anymore?

 

You guys will have to rely on cold coming down from the Fraser, but the air mass looks pretty d**n cold with good upper level support.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2017-18 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.7"

Coldest Low = 19

Lows 32 or below = 51

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 21

 

 


#2673
snow_wizard

Posted 14 February 2018 - 06:04 PM

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Most cold air west of the Cascades comes in from aloft (with exception to the small region around the gaps in the terrain.  Air aloft is cold with this system.  It looks cold. 

 

For snow, I want to see a low drop south to the west of the Olympics try to put some warm air advection over the top of a southward advancing cold front. The slower the movement, the better the snowfall amounts.

 

With the cold air aloft and the cooling air from the north, I think that snow-water ratios should be better than 10 to one with this setup (so amounts may over perform what the models show.  I am hoping that Sunday will be a nice and snowy one, and that the snow will stick around for a couple of days or so.  

 

I also like the eastward run to run shift of that next low toward midweek.  Warm air advection into a cold air mass can be good for snow that moves farther into the cold air than models indicate. It will be fun to see how things progress.

 

It looks like things may stay interesting into the first week of March.

 

The 12z WRF showed a nice snow event a couple of days after the cold air arrives.  I would love to see that after a good 2 to 4 inches with the Arctic front.


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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2017-18 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.7"

Coldest Low = 19

Lows 32 or below = 51

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 21

 

 


#2674
snow_wizard

Posted 14 February 2018 - 06:05 PM

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Has anyone seen the EPS plumes for snowfall with this?


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2017-18 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.7"

Coldest Low = 19

Lows 32 or below = 51

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 21

 

 


#2675
BLI snowman

Posted 14 February 2018 - 06:06 PM

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Not feeling the February 15-16, 1956 analog anymore?


Euro is better than the GFS so we'll see. The trough orientation is reminiscent but that airmass was wicked cold. -18c at 850mb.
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#2676
jaya

Posted 14 February 2018 - 06:08 PM

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Check this page out https://atmos.washin...m5rt/ensembles/for ensembles. Click on plumes. You can get snow plumes from the MM5 ensembles for several points.  Bad thing is, it is only run once per day, so it will likely be a tad out of date by a cycle or two.


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#2677
jaya

Posted 14 February 2018 - 06:09 PM

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Sorry, but the plumes are only out to 3 days.  No extended...  But, this did do a good job with last night's snow in places like Everett northward. We can get some resolution on Friday?



#2678
jaya

Posted 14 February 2018 - 06:11 PM

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Euro is better than the GFS so we'll see. The trough orientation is reminiscent but that airmass was wicked cold. -18c at 850mb.

From the standpoint of overall pattern, the ECMWF is both more consistent -and colder and snowier from a pattern look- than the GFS.  The GEM looks quite interesting!  I am liking the ICON more every time I look at this.



#2679
snow_wizard

Posted 14 February 2018 - 06:12 PM

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Euro is better than the GFS so we'll see. The trough orientation is reminiscent but that airmass was wicked cold. -18c at 850mb.

 

I suppose we could achieve -15 with this, but that would be pushing it.  I was happy to see how much colder the EPS was today 12z vs 0z.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2017-18 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.7"

Coldest Low = 19

Lows 32 or below = 51

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 21

 

 


#2680
snow_wizard

Posted 14 February 2018 - 06:13 PM

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From the standpoint of overall pattern, the ECMWF is both more consistent -and colder and snowier from a pattern look- than the GFS.  The GEM looks quite interesting!  I am liking the ICON more every time I look at this.

 

Any stats on how accurate the ICON is vs other models?


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2017-18 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.7"

Coldest Low = 19

Lows 32 or below = 51

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 21

 

 


#2681
jaya

Posted 14 February 2018 - 06:15 PM

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I suppose we could achieve -15 with this, but that would be pushing it.  I was happy to see how much colder the EPS was today 12z vs 0z.

It really would not take much to bring some really cold air into the Pacific NW.  It has been close by all winter and is still just north of the Canadian Coast ranges.  The upper levels are key, and they look cold.  It will not hit 0 in Seattle or anything like that - late in the winter- but this will likely be the coldest we have seen in a while.


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#2682
Phil

Posted 14 February 2018 - 06:17 PM

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It is almost as if there is some kind of impenetrable geographical barrier preventing cold from reaching us!


Yeah, what could possibly force cold air backwards over the Rockies/Cascades?

It’s almost like you need downstream blocking to prevent it from sliding east... ;)
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#2683
jaya

Posted 14 February 2018 - 06:20 PM

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Any stats on how accurate the ICON is vs other models?

 

Any stats on how accurate the ICON is vs other models?

 

 

Not that I can find.  I have just been looking at it over the past couple of months.  Qualitatively, it does look like it performs well, has high resolution, and holds back cold air east and north of the mountains well.  It has also done okay with precipitation amounts for the cases I have looked at so far this year.  If it has a fault, it may be in initialization. I see that it runs earlier and faster than all of the other global scale models. Either Max Planck Institute has a very powerful computer, or they are running the model with a less vigorous initialization scheme than the other models.  ECMWF spends almost a whole cycle time just on its initialization (one factor in their superior performance overall).  I'm still trying to get some info on the model and how it works (from a physics and scheduling standpoint).



#2684
Deweydog

Posted 14 February 2018 - 06:22 PM

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The NAM is about to be relevant for the first time since last year.

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#2685
Phil

Posted 14 February 2018 - 06:29 PM

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Well, that much is obvious. But he seemed to be inferring that the large scale pattern drivers are finally turning favorable for cold, when if you live in MT or anywhere in the northern tier, you've done just fine this winter without his coveted -NAO/-PNA combo.

The dominant factor this winter has undoubtedly been the -EPO, and that's not changing with this upcoming cold period. The main difference is it's finally a more favorable block for the West overall.

It may or may not be a direct result of the SSW. Sometimes those lead to good things for the West, sometimes they don't. Regardless, this cold season has had nice blocking since it started, which is why places as close as Montana have had the winter they've had. Not like we're seeing a flip from a 1999-00.


Here’s my two cents:

1) It is a direct result of the SSW. This is quantitatively demonstrable, from a physical/observational standpoint, so it’s not really up for debate (IMO).

2) Until now, the large scale drivers have not been favorable for PNW cold..it’s been a +PNA/+NAO winter, which has teleconnected well with the broad WHEM Hadley Cells and a NE-shifted warm pool.

3) The -EPO won’t be a major factor after Feb 22nd. It’s just a pure -PNA/-NAO constructive interference regime at that point. Much like mid/late 1955/56, 1968/69, 1981/82, 2005/06, etc.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#2686
MR.SNOWMIZER

Posted 14 February 2018 - 06:40 PM

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The NAM is about to be relevant for the first time since last year.

It's a oldie but goodie like you!!

We come from the land of the ice and snow.


#2687
Front Ranger

Posted 14 February 2018 - 06:44 PM

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Maybe I'm missing something. I haven't been paying a ton of attention.


Jaya is on it.

Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#2688
Deweydog

Posted 14 February 2018 - 06:44 PM

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It's a oldie but goodie like you!!


Awwwww shucks...

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#2689
Deweydog

Posted 14 February 2018 - 06:48 PM

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Jaya is on it.


https://m.youtube.co...h?v=GCFRJEjM3fc

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#2690
nwsnow

Posted 14 February 2018 - 07:00 PM

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I just noticed that the all important 18z NAVGEM also trended the Tuesday low much further east. 

 

 

navgem_mslp_pcpn_nwus_24.png



#2691
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 14 February 2018 - 07:06 PM

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I just noticed that the all important 18z NAVGEM also trended the Tuesday low much further east.


navgem_mslp_pcpn_nwus_24.png


Thickness values only 534 won't get the job done even if that stalls at Coos Bay

Monmouth, Oregon Winter 17-18 Stats:

 

Coldest high: 34 (Dec 24)

Coldest low: 22 (Dec 11 & Feb 23)

Total snowfall: 1"

Last snowfall: February 21-22, 2018

Last accumulating snowfall on roads: March 6, 2017

Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)

Last White Christmas: 2008

 

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope


#2692
Deweydog

Posted 14 February 2018 - 07:10 PM

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Thickness values only 534 won't get the job done even if that stalls at Coos Bay


Need to work on your basic meteorology there...

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#2693
BLI snowman

Posted 14 February 2018 - 07:12 PM

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Thickness values only 534 won't get the job done even if that stalls at Coos Bay


Offshore flow with a residual cold airmass = Good for snow

#2694
Timmy

Posted 14 February 2018 - 07:12 PM

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Need to work on your basic meteorology there...


Get him! Hit him with that BSF

#2695
Deweydog

Posted 14 February 2018 - 07:15 PM

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Get him! Hit him with that BSF


Is that anything like ATM?

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#2696
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 14 February 2018 - 07:20 PM

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Is that anything like ATM?


That's what Arkansas fans call Texas A&M fans

Monmouth, Oregon Winter 17-18 Stats:

 

Coldest high: 34 (Dec 24)

Coldest low: 22 (Dec 11 & Feb 23)

Total snowfall: 1"

Last snowfall: February 21-22, 2018

Last accumulating snowfall on roads: March 6, 2017

Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)

Last White Christmas: 2008

 

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope


#2697
MR.SNOWMIZER

Posted 14 February 2018 - 07:29 PM

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Thickness values only 534 won't get the job done even if that stalls at Coos Bay

You are so wrong it actually scares me.
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We come from the land of the ice and snow.


#2698
TT-SEA

Posted 14 February 2018 - 07:32 PM

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You are so wrong it actually scares me.

 

Really?   It actually scares you?   You are afraid of that?    :rolleyes:



#2699
Timmy

Posted 14 February 2018 - 07:33 PM

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Really? It actually scares you? You are afraid of that? :rolleyes:

how much snow did you get this morning?

#2700
Deweydog

Posted 14 February 2018 - 07:35 PM

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Only two things scare me.... And one of them is nuclear war.
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All roads lead to Walgreens.