November 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Phil]

There has been no shortage of high latitude blocking this fall, and that looks to continue. Even the NAO is tanking here soon.

 

Screenshot_5.png

I’ll believe it when I see it!

 

I just want to see deep, vertically integrated wave activity start soon. If that happens, my vortex paranoia will cease immediately.

 

Hard to believe the lack of dynamic trop/strat coupling will continue much longer in the high latitudes without the initiation of some kind of vertical transfer regime. Though the EPS has trended towards NW-Pacific troughing, which does set up the WAFz conduit to the PV thru the NPAC. So maybe that saves the day! It’s possible.

[Blizzard777]

I am wishcasting it further west!

I’m not a wishcaster...I call upon number 1 to make it so!

Got a shot of Baffin Island too!

[Kayla]

The GFS has been leading the way for about two years now. Really no reason to look at anything else.

 

[Front Ranger]

I’ll believe it when I see it!

 

I just want to see deep, vertically integrated wave activity start soon. If that happens, my vortex paranoia will cease immediately.

 

Hard to believe the lack of dynamic trop/strat coupling will continue much longer in the high latitudes without the initiation of some kind of vertical transfer regime. Though the EPS has trended towards NW-Pacific troughing, which does set up the WAFz conduit to the PV thru the NPAC. So maybe that saves the day! It’s possible.

With weak ENSO and weak solar, it's hard for me to imagine a strong vortex winter playing out.

[Bryant]

It's probably 80% chicken, 20% egg. As in, it probably does have a small effect on temps, though it's not a driver of upper air patterns at all.

I agree, in that I'm sure there is a bit of a feedback mechanism

[Jesse]

He has been molting into his winter troll coat.

[Phil]

The Euro and GFS both have a winter storm here on D4.

 

As if the similarity to the 1980s (and 2014/15) wasn’t stunning enough already. It’s not supposed to snow here in November..70*F dewpoints are more common than snow until ~ December 5th.

[Phil]

I think 1987 was the year of the Veteran’s Day storm.

 

Analog?? Matches QBO/ENSO pretty well, ironically. One of the few years that does.

[Kayla]

He has been molting into his winter troll coat.

 

Ha, you're on fire today!

[Phil]

With weak ENSO and weak solar, it's hard for me to imagine a strong vortex winter playing out.

Hey, you could be right. I’m not sure yet, honestly.

 

I am confident that wave activity will pick up next month. The question is, will it be enough to overcome the vortex during peak coupling season? We’ll see. I hope so.

[BLI snowman]

Day 10-15 EPS builds warmth across all of southern Canada

 

469A44FA-1AB6-48DE-A107-8ECEB55CAAD9.png

 

Been a long time since we saw that pattern. Good news for CA.

[Front Ranger]

I think 1987 was the year of the Veteran’s Day storm.

 

Analog?? Matches QBO/ENSO pretty well, ironically. One of the few years that does.

 

+ENSO was way stronger that year. Off the charts +PDO. Rapidly rising solar. Far different fall pattern across the CONUS.

 

Only part that looks like a good match to me is QBO. Plus I don't believe in using localized events for large-scale analogs. 

[Guest daniel1]

Hey, you could be right. I’m not sure yet, honestly.

 

I am confident that wave activity will pick up next month. The question is, will it be enough to overcome the vortex during peak coupling season? We’ll see. I hope so.

You make it seem as if this vortex is a beast. It’s anything but and prone to displacements.

[TT-SEA]

Day 10-15 EPS builds warmth across all of southern Canada

 

469A44FA-1AB6-48DE-A107-8ECEB55CAAD9.png

Looks like a Nino.

[BLI snowman]

I think 1987 was the year of the Veteran’s Day storm.

 

Analog?? Matches QBO/ENSO pretty well, ironically. One of the few years that does.

 

December 1987 was pretty good for the West.

[Phil]

Some of my vortex obsession has been reverse psychology and/or trolling, obviously. It’s just something that I do.

 

Now, here’s an honest, trolling-free statement. There probably will be some strong polar blocking during the midwinter period. I haven’t mentioned it much, and I don’t want to jinx it, but I think it’s coming. All analog guidance and dynamic extrapolation(s) of the relevant boundary conditions suggest some serious wavebreaking will develop around the holidays and produce some serious anomalies across the NH. It looks legitimate this time.

 

The question is, will it benefit the West? That, I’m not quite sure of yet. It does look like a niño-ish period with a strong STJ and SE US trough. But there could very well be a coherent, legitimate -NAO in January this year, which would tend to weaken the Aleutian low/western ridge. The 1968/69 winter had a mega-NAO which pulled off some crazy stuff in similar fashion. So, who knows what ends up happening. But it’s something. And it looks more likely than not, at this point.

[Front Ranger]

Some of my vortex obsession has been reverse psychology and/or trolling, obviously. It’s just something that I do.

 

Now, here’s an honest, trolling-free statement. There probably will be some strong polar blocking during the midwinter period. I haven’t mentioned it much, and I don’t want to jinx it, but I think it’s coming. All analog guidance and dynamic extrapolation(s) of the relevant boundary conditions suggest some serious wavebreaking will develop around the holidays and produce some serious anomalies across the NH. No joke.

 

The question is, will it benefit the West? That, I’m not quite sure of yet. It does look like a niño-ish period with a strong STJ and SE US trough. But there could very well be a coherent, legitimate -NAO in January this year, which would tend to weaken the Aleutian low/western ridge. The 1968/69 winter had a mega-NAO which pulled off some crazy stuff in similar fashion. So, who knows what ends up happening. But it’s something. And it looks more likely than not, at this point.

 

Glad to see you're coming around. 

[Phil]

Glad to see you're coming around.

Still no way to predict where the cold would go, though. Which is why I haven’t talked about Jan/Feb much.

 

I’ve been more focused on Nov/Dec since the West has an easier time scoring early w/ a +ENSO style wavetrain. And most good +ENSO winters in the west had blocky patterns develop early. This year has sort of gone that route, but indecisively so.

 

But Jan/Feb are a challenge. Need some seriously anomalous stuff in Eurasia to pull it off West of the Rockies under +ENSO. And it has to time well with the tropical forcing. It’s possible, but difficult. January is the hardest one. Everything has to align perfectly. Hasn’t happened in decades.

[Front Ranger]

Still no way to predict where the cold would go, though. Which is why I haven’t talked about Jan/Feb much.

 

I’ve been more focused on Nov/Dec since the West has an easier time scoring early w/ a +ENSO style wavetrain. And most good +ENSO winters in the west had blocky patterns develop early. This year has sort of gone that route, but indecisively so.

 

But Jan/Feb are a challenge. Need some seriously anomalous stuff in Eurasia to pull it off West of the Rockies under +ENSO. And it has to time well with the tropical forcing. It’s possible, but difficult. January is the hardest one. Everything has to align perfectly. Hasn’t happened in decades.

 

Yeah, I agree that timing and where exactly the cold goes is the tough part.

 

However, I really like the odds of the West seeing at least one major blast, even if the majority of the cold is focused further east for the winter overall. This happened every winter in the low solar 2008-11 period. And if you look further back at other very low solar periods, you'll see something similar most winters.

 

If +ENSO was stronger, I would be more confidant in January being an overall dud for the West, but the recent waverings of the Nino and the tendency towards increased high latitude blocking give me more hope for that month.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

My daughters are definitely enjoying the early snow in the Tulsa metro area. 

 

[Front Ranger]

I could see why you would want to move down there. Better weather and family.

 

Tornado alley, if you're into that sort of thing. 

 

It would be really hard for me to ever live somewhere that flat, though. And too hot/humid in the summer. PNW weather is so much better June-September.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I could see why you would want to move down there. Better weather and family.

 

When I was there a couple weeks ago it was just gorgeous. Highs in the 60s with sunshine and lows in the 30s. I love the variability of the weather there.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Tornado alley, if you're into that sort of thing. 

 

It would be really hard for me to ever live somewhere that flat, though. And too hot/humid in the summer. PNW weather is so much better June-September.

 

Definitely wouldn't be my first choice to live if I didn't have family there. But I did choose to live there for college and a bit after, and I enjoyed the weather, much moreso than living in the Willamette Valley. It is just so much more variable, the weather in the PNW is so boring in comparison. Also we wait years for an arctic blast here, there they have multiple arctic fronts each winter. Most have very limited moisture, maybe some flurries with FROPA, but some do trigger some decent snow events. Their all-time record snow falls are well below what our records are here in the PNW lowlands, but it snows more consistently from season to season. I think going back to 1900 there have only been 3 winters in Tulsa without measurable snowfall. 

[Front Ranger]

Definitely wouldn't be my first choice to live if I didn't have family there. But I did choose to live there for college and a bit after, and I enjoyed the weather, much moreso than living in the Willamette Valley. It is just so much more variable, the weather in the PNW is so boring in comparison. Also we wait years for an arctic blast here, there they have multiple arctic fronts each winter. Most have very limited moisture, maybe some flurries with FROPA, but some do trigger some decent snow events. Their all-time record snow falls are well below what our records are here in the PNW lowlands, but it snows more consistently from season to season. I think going back to 1900 there have only been 3 winters in Tulsa without measurable snowfall. 

 

Yeah, I get enjoying the weather there more Oct-May.

 

But they still have pretty lame winters overall, and again...the lack of interesting terrain would be a major downside for me.

[stuffradio]

Here's an interesting link on the QBO I saw. https://blog.weatherops.com/will-the-negative-qbo-increase-the-odds-for-a-colder-winter-this-yearI looked at some monthly numbers for the QBO, and it almost appears the QBO is trending more postive. Reading the blog link, it almost seems like it should be better for us in the west.

[Requiem]

Outlook not looking good.

[Phil]

Yeah, I get enjoying the weather there more Oct-May.

 

But they still have pretty lame winters overall, and again...the lack of interesting terrain would be a major downside for me.

I’m heavily biased, but I really think the ideal climate for Andrew (and especially Tim) would be that of the Mid-Atlantic, near the foothills. Plenty of hilly terrain, lots of snowfall, cold fronts, summer thunderstorms, and lots of heat for Tim.

 

Except for those nasty 4 months, the rest of the year is pretty nice.

[Phil]

Here's an interesting link on the QBO I saw. https://blog.weatherops.com/will-the-negative-qbo-increase-the-odds-for-a-colder-winter-this-yearI looked at some monthly numbers for the QBO, and it almost appears the QBO is trending more postive. Reading the blog link, it almost seems like it should be better for us in the west.

Well, it’s a mixed/transitioning QBO. Positive @ 30mb, negative @ 50mb (latter is more important to the state of the NPAC).

[stuffradio]

Well, it’s a mixed/transitioning QBO. Positive @ 30mb, negative @ 50mb (latter is more important to the state of the NPAC).

It's still in a pattern of trending positive though @ 50mb, which is what I was talking about.

[Phil]

It's still in a pattern of trending positive though @ 50mb, which is what I was talking about.

Positive QBO @ 50mb is good during -ENSO winters.

 

In +ENSO winters, not so much. Tends to produce a very zonal NPAC regime, which keeps the western 2/3rds of the US warmer (all else being equal, of course).

 

Those “classic” El Niño maps you often see from NOAA/CPC (warm across the northwestern 2/3rds of the US, cold/wet in the SE) are actually a solid description of a +ENSO/+QBO background state.

 

It’s the +ENSO/-QBO winters (of which there have been very few in recent years..2009/10 was the last legitimate one) that tend to produce in the West during recent decades.

[TT-SEA]

61 at SEA... nice day.

[Deweydog]

[Esquimalt]

Positive QBO @ 50mb is good during -ENSO winters.

 

In +ENSO winters, not so much. Tends to produce a very zonal NPAC regime, which keeps the western 2/3rds of the US warmer (all else being equal, of course).

 

Those “classic” El Niño maps you often see from NOAA/CPC (warm across the northwestern 2/3rds of the US, cold/wet in the SE) are actually a solid description of a +ENSO/+QBO background state.

 

It’s the +ENSO/-QBO winters (of which there have been very few in recent years..2009/10 was the last legitimate one) that tend to produce in the West during recent decades.

Aren’t we currently +ENSO/-QBO?

[Jesse]

61 at SEA... nice day.

Ten degrees cooler at PDX. Nicer day.

[Jesse]

It is currently 60 at Government Camp and 36 in Hood River. Quite the inversion.

[TT-SEA]

It is currently 60 at Government Camp and 36 in Hood River. Quite the inversion.

I think we are flying over that inversion right now..

 

 

[Deweydog]

I think we are flying over that inversion right now..

 

 

Nope. This particular inversion is 38,000 feet thick.

[Front Ranger]

What timing!

[Front Ranger]

Outlook not looking good.

 

[Requiem]

 

In this case, Debbie is somewhat accurate.