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July 2020 Observations and Discussion

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#1
Tom

Posted 28 June 2020 - 05:09 AM

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As we near the middle of the calendar year and set our sights on the month of July, are we going to Fry???  There is a stout signal among all the various climate models that a vast majority of our Sub will indeed be experiencing above normal temps throughout this month.  The first two weeks are shaping up to be quite warm and toasty which may not be such a bad thing for beach goers, anglers and the like.

 

The CFSv2 trends have pretty much locked in showing a drier outlook for the Plains and parts of the MW/GL's, while the Upper MW and SE are wetter.  Similarly, last weeks Euro Weeklies look almost identical.  So, it may be safe to say, that our A/C's will be humming and working over time for quite a while.

 

 

Let's discuss...

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#2
Hawkeye

Posted 28 June 2020 - 05:42 AM

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It's going to be August before I see a solid thunderstorm.


season snowfall: 36.2"

 

'18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#3
OKwx2k4

Posted 28 June 2020 - 05:49 AM

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As we near the middle of the calendar year and set our sights on the month of July, are we going to Fry??? There is a stout signal among all the various climate models that a vast majority of our Sub will indeed be experiencing above normal temps throughout this month. The first two weeks are shaping up to be quite warm and toasty which may not be such a bad thing for beach goers, anglers and the like.

The CFSv2 trends have pretty much locked in showing a drier outlook for the Plains and parts of the MW/GL's, while the Upper MW and SE are wetter. Similarly, last weeks Euro Weeklies look almost identical. So, it may be safe to say, that our A/C's will be humming and working over time for quite a while.


Let's discuss...


There's that look I was trying to describe a few weeks back. To perfection. I actually think that's our next month almost to a T.

#4
Tom

Posted 28 June 2020 - 06:05 AM

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There's that look I was trying to describe a few weeks back. To perfection. I actually think that's our next month almost to a T.

Near average temps/precip for your backyard ain't to shabby for the middle of Summer...



#5
OKwx2k4

Posted 28 June 2020 - 11:34 AM

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Near average temps/precip for your backyard ain't to shabby for the middle of Summer...


Not bad.
Not necessarily for my backyard are my heaviest concerns.
Seeing the drought I've sort of predicted start impacting the SW and interior NE by the end of summer.
My region will be fine, I believe.
Expecting a true long-term drought over the SW in the next 3-5 years.
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#6
Tom

Posted 29 June 2020 - 04:42 AM

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Looks like the forecast for Thursday through the TX/OK Panhandle on I-40 is going to be one HOT and Humid drive. Based on my calculations, I'll be somewhere near Amarillo, TX during the afternoon where temps are being forecast to be at or above 100F! I'm sure there will be a wall of humidity as soon as I enter the Panhandle. I forget where exactly, but I recall experiencing this a number of years back either in NM or TX where it just hits you in the face. It's also interesting as the vegetation changes almost instantly from desert to more brush and greener landscape. I love taking road trips and seeing the country side!
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#7
westMJim

Posted 29 June 2020 - 04:57 AM

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Looks like the forecast for Thursday through the TX/OK Panhandle on I-40 is going to be one HOT and Humid drive.  Based on my calculations, I'll be somewhere near Amarillo, TX during the afternoon where temps are being forecast to be AOB 100F!  I'm sure there will be a wall of humidity as soon as I enter the Panhandle.  I forget where exactly, but I recall experiencing this a number of years back either in NM or TX where it just hits you in the face.  It's also interesting as the vegetation changes almost instantly from desert to more brush and greener landscape.  I love taking road trips and seeing the country side!

I know in the summer it will not be the same. But a few years back on the way down to Fort Myers we were in northern Florida in December and it was cloudy and the cars outside temperature reading was in the mid 60's The out or no where the cars windows all fogged up on the inside as we drove through a warm front and the temperature shot up into the upper 70's just like that. It was one of the most scariest things that can happen when driving. I mean the windows just fogged up and you could not see a thing. 


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#8
Tom

Posted 29 June 2020 - 06:35 AM

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I know in the summer it will not be the same. But a few years back on the way down to Fort Myers we were in northern Florida in December and it was cloudy and the cars outside temperature reading was in the mid 60's The out or no where the cars windows all fogged up on the inside as we drove through a warm front and the temperature shot up into the upper 70's just like that. It was one of the most scariest things that can happen when driving. I mean the windows just fogged up and you could not see a thing.


That’s wild! Glad to hear nothing bad happened while driving. The weather plays a big role in all aspects of our lives. One of the big reasons why I’m fascinated by it every day.

#9
Tom

Posted 30 June 2020 - 08:30 AM

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Boy, oh boy, the duration of the HEAT coming up has big time legs....some places may be setting some records for duration of heat/humidity.  Longest heat wave since the 90's for Chicago???



#10
james1976

Posted 30 June 2020 - 08:42 AM

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Boy, oh boy, the duration of the HEAT coming up has big time legs....some places may be setting some records for duration of heat/humidity. Longest heat wave since the 90's for Chicago???

My 10 day is basically 90/70 with humidity and scattered storms. Gonna get old fast but fall will be here before we know it.
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#11
Tom

Posted 30 June 2020 - 10:56 AM

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Today's Euro is pushing 100F heat into C NE next Wed/Thu!  #BlowTorch pattern for the Plains states....


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#12
Niko

Posted 30 June 2020 - 01:03 PM

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"Incoming Heatwave" w 90F or better for a week straight or more is a strong possibility for many. The 4th will be sizzling.



#13
Tom

Posted 01 July 2020 - 05:08 AM

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I did some research and the greatest consecutive number of days where the maximum temp reaches 90F or better is 11 days way back in the 50's where it happened multiple times during that decade (Global Warming...sarc).  With that being said, could it be possible Chicago can rack up more than a week of 90F+ temps???  The late 1980's stand out to be the earliest decade where the highest streaks occurred in the years 1983, 1987, 1988  (9, 10 ,9 respectively). Skilling's forecast suggests 12 days in a row with 90F+ temps.  We shall see what nature has in store.

 

https://www.weather....erature_Records


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#14
Niko

Posted 01 July 2020 - 05:34 AM

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The last time Detroit remained consistently in the 90s for 7+ days in a row was back in 1987! Wow! Well, we are about to break that.


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#15
westMJim

Posted 01 July 2020 - 05:46 AM

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Welcome to July. Here is a summery for June 2020 in west Michigan. At Grand Rapids the mean for June was 69.6 that is a departure of +4.2 the high for the month was 93 on the 9th (that tied the record for that date) the low for the month was 42 on the 14th there were 3 days of 90 or better. At Muskegon the mean was 69.0 that is a departure of +2.7 the high for the month was 97 on the 9th that was a new record for the date. The low was 42 on the 14th there were 4 days of 90 or better. At Holland the mean was 69.7 that is good for a departure of +1.7 the high for the month was 93 on the 6th and the low was 45 on the 14th there were 2 days of 90 or better. At Kalamazoo the mean there was 71.0 that is a departure of + 2.8 the high there was 93 on the 9th  and the low was 44 on the 14th there were 5 days of 90 or better there.



#16
westMJim

Posted 01 July 2020 - 06:14 AM

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I did some research and the greatest consecutive number of days where the maximum temp reaches 90F or better is 11 days way back in the 50's where it happened multiple times during that decade (Global Warming...sarc).  With that being said, could it be possible Chicago can rack up more than a week of 90F+ temps???  The late 1980's stand out to be the earliest decade where the highest streaks occurred in the years 1983, 1987, 1988  (9, 10 ,9 respectively). Skilling's forecast suggests 12 days in a row with 90F+ temps.  We shall see what nature has in store.

 

https://www.weather....erature_Records

The longest number of 90° days in a row at Grand Rapids is 11 set way back in 1901 there have been several other times with strings of 8 days in a row. Most of the time is is very hard to get more then 3 days in our area before a cold front comes thru.


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#17
Niko

Posted 01 July 2020 - 06:40 AM

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Another sunny day today w low humidity levels, (wont last) relatively speaking, w temps in the upper 80s.



#18
Niko

Posted 01 July 2020 - 07:14 AM

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Looks like the next shot of rainfall/t'stm activity (hopefully) is next Wednesday. Until then, full-time "Sprinklers."



#19
Sparky

Posted 01 July 2020 - 07:20 AM

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Yeah I sure wanted some rain before it gets hotter and dryer but the daily rain chances here didn't pan out! At least it was cooler and cloudy since early yesterday.
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#20
Hawkeye

Posted 01 July 2020 - 09:09 AM

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The HRRR runs today continue to show cells bubbling up again through parts of east-central Iowa this afternoon and evening, with a few lucky spots getting 1-2" while others get very little.


season snowfall: 36.2"

 

'18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#21
CentralNebWeather

Posted 01 July 2020 - 10:30 AM

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According to NWS Hastings, June was a top 10 hottest in Central Nebraska history. I will have to see official stats for amount of days over 90. It will be a lot. Month was 5-7 degrees above average with below normal precipitation. Grass looks like August 1 not July 1. Irrigation season is now going 100%.
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#22
CentralNebWeather

Posted 01 July 2020 - 10:51 AM

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The last month was hot. This week is hot. Then I just took a look at next week. Might be the hottest week in years. Over 100 several days is forecasted. I don’t even want to fathom what dews might be. Corn will putting moisture into the air along with irrigation. I’ve had relatives from Texas say that Central Nebraska in July and early August felt hotter than Texas when corn is growing and irrigation is running 100%. Then add a heat wave.
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#23
Niko

Posted 01 July 2020 - 11:21 AM

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Some clouds trying to hide the sun a bit. Hopefully, a t'stm can pop up outta nowhere. :wacko:



#24
Niko

Posted 01 July 2020 - 11:23 AM

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Attm, 86F/66F. Not too bad. Noticeable humidity levels, which is okay by my standards. Anything at 70F or higher becomes annoying to me and has a big X mark next to it.



#25
Niko

Posted 01 July 2020 - 01:03 PM

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Just looked at my extended outlook and looks more like a "Heat Tsunami." Temps in the 90s for the foreseeable future.



#26
gabel23

Posted 01 July 2020 - 01:19 PM

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The last month was hot. This week is hot. Then I just took a look at next week. Might be the hottest week in years. Over 100 several days is forecasted. I don’t even want to fathom what dews might be. Corn will putting moisture into the air along with irrigation. I’ve had relatives from Texas say that Central Nebraska in July and early August felt hotter than Texas when corn is growing and irrigation is running 100%. Then add a heat wave.

I heard areas in southwest nebraska around the Cambridge area are in big trouble. Sounds like the dry land corn will be a complete loss and with the heat continuing on the drought in that area will just continue to grow. 


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#27
St Paul Storm

Posted 01 July 2020 - 01:44 PM

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87/74.....feels awesome (said no one, ever). 5+ inches of rain before a heat wave equals we gonna be sticky.
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#28
Tom

Posted 01 July 2020 - 02:11 PM

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@ FAR_Weather, how is Fargo treating ya?  Was the road trip ok?



#29
Hawkeye

Posted 01 July 2020 - 03:00 PM

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I've managed to pick up almost a half inch of rain today from the bubbly cells.

 

The upcoming heat doesn't look too bad.  The locals, NWS, and The Weather Channel all have upper 80s to maybe 90º every day.  Today's Euro has mid to upper 80s through day eight, then 90/91 on day 9/10.  That's warm, but pretty tame.


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season snowfall: 36.2"

 

'18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#30
CentralNebWeather

Posted 01 July 2020 - 03:03 PM

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I heard areas in southwest nebraska around the Cambridge area are in big trouble. Sounds like the dry land corn will be a complete loss and with the heat continuing on the drought in that area will just continue to grow.


Unless they can irrigate, it will be a loss. Lots of water here, but it all costs money, electricity, fuel, water, etc. if drought conditions expand I think commodity prices will go up. Double edged sword.

#31
CentralNebWeather

Posted 01 July 2020 - 03:07 PM

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Caught a break from humidity today, dews only in the low 50’s. They are back tomorrow and it only gets worse in the coming days. I have underground sprinklers and my yard looks the worst it has in years. Continued heat and wind just saps whatever water you put down.
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#32
Niko

Posted 01 July 2020 - 03:48 PM

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Caught a break from humidity today, dews only in the low 50’s. They are back tomorrow and it only gets worse in the coming days. I have underground sprinklers and my yard looks the worst it has in years. Continued heat and wind just saps whatever water you put down.

Tip: Best time to water your lawn is morning (5am-10am at the latest).  You want the water to hit the soil. If you use your sprinklers later than that time, all the water goes to waste, as it will evaporate b4 hitting the soil as the sun is beating down. Nighttime water causes droplets to cling to the grass, therefore increasing the chance of a disease to form. Just make sure to give it 1-1.5" of water per week. Dont go overboard, be careful.
 


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#33
Niko

Posted 01 July 2020 - 03:50 PM

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Attm, deep, blue sunny skies w temps at 82F. Not too uncomfortable, YET!



#34
FAR_Weather

Posted 01 July 2020 - 06:00 PM

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Coolest high here over the next 10 days looks to be in the upper 80s. None of them look to be of the dry variety either. It'll be miserable.
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>1" Snowfalls for Toledo Express Airport in 2019-2020: 11/11 (4.0"), 12/31 (1.0"), 1/17-18 (5.5"), 2/5-6 (3.2"), 2/9 (1.3"), 2/12-13 (1.2"), 2/25-26 (4.1"), 3/22 (1.6"), 4/17 (2.0")

 

Total Snowfall for 2019-2020 @ KTOL: 25.6"            Coldest Low: 8*F (11/13)

 

 

First flake of the season: 11/7/2019 @ 10:06 AM EST

 


#35
Sparky

Posted 01 July 2020 - 07:48 PM

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I've managed to pick up almost a half inch of rain today from the bubbly cells.

The upcoming heat doesn't look too bad. The locals, NWS, and The Weather Channel all have upper 80s to maybe 90º every day. Today's Euro has mid to upper 80s through day eight, then 90/91 on day 9/10. That's warm, but pretty tame.

My you are lucky. A strip to my northeast through my county also got around that amount. I was in a dry hole once again kinda like last summer but at least also had more good hits at other times last year.

#36
FAR_Weather

Posted 02 July 2020 - 01:31 AM

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GFS shows temps in the mid-110s in Central SD near hour 240. That includes a DP in the mid-70s. This would be due to a cold front knocking on their door.

>1" Snowfalls for Toledo Express Airport in 2019-2020: 11/11 (4.0"), 12/31 (1.0"), 1/17-18 (5.5"), 2/5-6 (3.2"), 2/9 (1.3"), 2/12-13 (1.2"), 2/25-26 (4.1"), 3/22 (1.6"), 4/17 (2.0")

 

Total Snowfall for 2019-2020 @ KTOL: 25.6"            Coldest Low: 8*F (11/13)

 

 

First flake of the season: 11/7/2019 @ 10:06 AM EST

 


#37
westMJim

Posted 02 July 2020 - 03:03 AM

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It looks like June 2020 was indeed the sunniest of record at Grand Rapids with a reported 82.3% of possible sunshine the old record was 81.7% back in 1963. At Grand Rapids there now have been 3 days in a row with highs in the upper 80's but over at Muskegon they have now had 3 days in a row with highs in the 90's.
At this time it is clear and 66 here at my house and the last reading at GRR was reported as cloudy?? and 67

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#38
Tom

Posted 02 July 2020 - 03:25 AM

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Rise N Shine from AZ!  This is my last day here for what has been a long 4 month stay. I can't believe how fast time flies...it feels like it was just yesterday that I got here.  Nonetheless, I'm excited to head back home and tackle the 26-28 hour non stop drive from Phoenix to Chicago!  I've been watching the models to see what the weather will look like down in TX/OK and it looks like there is a chance of some severe wx right about the time I'll be cruising near OKC later this evening.  Might have to dodge some storms or at least see mother nature show off a light show to my north while driving down the I-40.

 

 

I'll chime in from time to time while on the road.  Be good and stay cool everyone!

 

 

 

 

image5.png?5b93247bc76788f5211b38b8553df

 

 

 

nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_21.png


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#39
james1976

Posted 02 July 2020 - 04:43 AM

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@Tom safe travels. That's a heck of a drive.
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#40
james1976

Posted 02 July 2020 - 04:47 AM

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Driving into work this morning it caught my attention how high the corn already is around here. Shoulder high in many fields. The recent rain and warm temps have been good to the crop in this area.
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#41
FAR_Weather

Posted 02 July 2020 - 05:54 AM

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9am and already nasty here in Fargo. 81°F with a DP of 72.
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>1" Snowfalls for Toledo Express Airport in 2019-2020: 11/11 (4.0"), 12/31 (1.0"), 1/17-18 (5.5"), 2/5-6 (3.2"), 2/9 (1.3"), 2/12-13 (1.2"), 2/25-26 (4.1"), 3/22 (1.6"), 4/17 (2.0")

 

Total Snowfall for 2019-2020 @ KTOL: 25.6"            Coldest Low: 8*F (11/13)

 

 

First flake of the season: 11/7/2019 @ 10:06 AM EST

 


#42
Niko

Posted 02 July 2020 - 06:12 AM

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Currently at 82F w SUNNY skies!



#43
Niko

Posted 02 July 2020 - 07:04 AM

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T'stm activity in my forecast for next Wed. Fingers crossed! :blink:



#44
St Paul Storm

Posted 02 July 2020 - 07:46 AM

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Safe travels Tom! That is one heck of a drive in 2 days, let alone nonstop. You’re hardcore!

Heat index at 10:30 is already 97F. Oppressive is the first word that comes to mind.
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#45
Tom

Posted 02 July 2020 - 08:43 AM

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81F at Holbrook, AZ...made a quick pit stop to refuel and hopped on I-40 heading east towards Albuquerque. Saw many campers while driving up through the mountains. The scenery for the rest of the way through AZ will be pretty baron.
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#46
westMJim

Posted 02 July 2020 - 09:33 AM

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The latest reading at GRR is now at 87. Here at my house I now have a reading of 93. While Grand Rapids has not had a day of 90 or better since June 20th Muskegon now has had 4 days in a row of 90 or better. In fact Muskegon has had the state high on 2 of the last 3 days. Across the area so far this summer Muskegon and Kalamazoo have had 5 days of 90 or better. Grand Rapids 4. Holland 3 and to the east Lansing has also had 3 days so far. The average number of 90 days in the last 30 years are Grand Rapids 10. Kalamazoo 13. Holland 9. Muskegon average is only 3 so they are already have more than average. And to the east at Lansing their average is 9 days of 90 or better over the last 30 years.



#47
Tom

Posted 02 July 2020 - 09:40 AM

Tom

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Just crossed the border into NM and I drove through a brief shower. 1st Monsoon precip of the season. Noticed a bit more moisture in the air. 78F under mostly cloudy skies just outside of Gallup, NM.
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#48
Niko

Posted 02 July 2020 - 10:52 AM

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Temps are approaching 90F w dew at 61, which is not all that bad. Skies are nothing but deep blue.

 

Ugggh.....wish I was in Greece now! Dang Covid! :wacko:



#49
CentralNebWeather

Posted 02 July 2020 - 01:49 PM

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You step outside to the Central Nebraska tropics and are hit in the face with a 73 dew point. I think if you look closely you can literally see the corn growing in front of you. A potential MCS might just make it here tonight. As usual, not expecting anything, but will be happy for any precipitation.
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#50
Tom

Posted 02 July 2020 - 04:02 PM

Tom

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Passed up Amarillo, TX not long ago and in the distance you could see the slow moving cell. We saw a double rainbow. Driving through pouring rain, 64F, finally nice to see heavy rain!
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