April 2022 (April 2008/2011 redux)

[Blizzard777]

1 minute ago, T-Town said:

Another nice morning here. 44 degrees with clouds and sun. Was hoping for a bit more rain last night but it sounds like there’s a good amount on the way. 

Beautiful morning indeed 
.06 overnight here

[T-Town]

7 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

Thought I was going to be rained out in the Olympics yesterday…April Fools I suppose!  Mount Storm King hike was awesome!!!  Temp up there was around 39* 

Awesome shot. What’s the body of water?

[TacomaWaWx]

1 minute ago, T-Town said:

Awesome shot. What’s the body of water?

That’s Lake crescent west of port Angeles I believe. 

[TacomaWaWx]

Got down to 41 here this morning. Trees are getting real close to leafing out here. 

[TacomaWaWx]

Last nights euro run was pretty dynamic. High temps in the low 70s on one day and lowland snow a couple days later with highs in the mid 40s. Not to mention the cascades get one of their biggest snowstorms of the season in April. Would be 2008ish if it verified. 

[Phil]

7 hours ago, smerfylicious said:

Wow any shot of El Nino has been kicked to late fall/early winter. Maybe we won't be a BBQ this summer?

Now if only I could get my bilberries to germinate...any suggestions Tim?

Oh yeah, -ENSO base state is rock solid at the moment.

How that translates to warm season patterns is less clear. We’re still in the post-1998 z-cell/WP era, after all.

But it can be overcome, as 2008-12 demonstrates. We’ll see what happens. This is the closest we’ve been since then.

[Blizzard777]

50 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Awesome shot. What’s the body of water?

TacomaWaWx is all over it!   You can see the Strait of Juan de Fuca just behind the mountain as well

[Cascadia_Wx]

59/37 day here yesterday picked up over .20” of rain yesterday evening and overnight a little more than expected maybe that will bode well for the upcoming systems too 

Mostly cloudy this morning with a low of 43

[Phil]

EPS also projecting the next round of large scale WPAC subsidence by the end of week-2, which is a precursor to another trade wind burst later this month.

And trades are already stronger than average over the dateline despite the unfavorable MJO/intraseasonal state. The background state appears to be dominant at this time.

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

EPS also projecting the next round of large scale WPAC subsidence by the end of week-2, which is a precursor to another trade wind burst later this month.

And trades are already stronger than average over the dateline despite the unfavorable MJO/intraseasonal state. The background state appears to be dominant at this time.

Dude, I appreciate the heck out of your forecasts, but can we get an idiot’s version too please? Like “it’s going to be colder than a snake’s a** in the PNW” or something like that.

[TacomaWaWx]

Will be interesting to see how April plays out this year compared to 2021 and 2020. Both months featured significant dry streaks. 14 days in 2021 and 18 days in 2020. Last April was very dry…just 1.16” for the month and a week of +70 weather hitting 80 on 4/18. 2020 turned wet in the final 1/3 but the first 2/3rds of the month were bone dry. The system coming in a couple days is definitely more significant than we’ve seen in April in recent years. 

[Kayla]

I haven't really been following the models much lately but the 12z GFS is really unimpressive for the west as a whole. 

[MossMan]

That last time my mother in law flew in from Arizona I was sick and we were about to hit the December 2021 arctic madness…She is flying in today and for the first time since then I am sick again…Looks like a snowy April to remember upcoming. I am not nearly as excited this time. 

[MossMan]

.13” so far on the day, .30” for the month, 18.27 for the year. 
44 and cloudy. Had a low of 38. 
I don’t like Aprils…At all. 

[Clancy MT DW9972]

Howdy all!   Now that we are into Spring,  I must say that since mid January to now has been absolutely uneventful in regards to any meaningful snow for my region "southwest MT".  Since October I have measured only 35" of snow this entire winter, which is quite a bummer, as we normally get more than twice that amount.  Anyways a trend I have noticed for a little over 2 years and I am sure many of you have as well, is that whenever the NWS posts their weekly, monthly, and 3 month outlooks for temps and precip chances for this region,  they have simply been way too generous in regards to better than average chances for above normal precip across much of the state. However,  when all is said and done, maybe a few localized areas wound up getting the predicted moisture. So even though I know its virtually impossible to accurately forecast that far out, how come they keep pushing for the above normal chances, when every previous outlook has failed miserably, and the next one will most likely as well?   I have been trying to figure out why even attempt to do an outlook that far in advance.   Thats my rant I thought I would share.

 

[AlTahoe]

1 hour ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Will be interesting to see how April plays out this year compared to 2021 and 2020. Both months featured significant dry streaks. 14 days in 2021 and 18 days in 2020. Last April was very dry…just 1.16” for the month and a week of +70 weather hitting 80 on 4/18. 2020 turned wet in the final 1/3 but the first 2/3rds of the month were bone dry. The system coming in a couple days is definitely more significant than we’ve seen in April in recent years. 

Welp the Gfs has taken away all precip for California even though it had been showing storms for a week now. Tahoe city has never recorded a zero precip month for April before. I have a feeling we will continue the record dry streak through April. Summer started Jan 4th this year for us. 

[TacomaWaWx]

6 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

Welp the Gfs has taken away all precip for California even though it had been showing storms for a week now. Tahoe city has never recorded a zero precip month for April before. I have a feeling we will continue the record dry streak through April. Summer started Jan 4th this year for us. 

It’d be very frustrating living down there with such a boom or bust potential. Pretty sad seeing how bad the droughts been getting in the west recently. We’ve got it pretty nice up here compared to just about anywhere  to the south and east. 

[snow_wizard]

We are finally entering the regime I had hoped to see this spring.  Really nice roller coaster / trough, ridge, trough pattern coming up.  Not sure what went wrong in March.  It was just a total mess.

[TacomaWaWx]

10 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

We are finally entering the regime I had hoped to see this spring.  Really nice roller coaster / trough, ridge, trough pattern coming up.  Not sure what went wrong in March.  It was just a total mess.

The new euro looked pretty dynamic. 

[snow_wizard]

Right now it appears the possible El Nino for later this year is off.  Might be looking at a third year Nina with a positive QBO next winter.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, TacomaWaWx said:

The new euro looked pretty dynamic. 

No doubt.  This is unquestionably my favorite regime for April.  Really nice snow potential for the mountains and frost in lowlands.  Could be a couple of much below normal daily averages during the next 10 days.

[Skagit Weather]

The 8" of snow shown here on the Euro would certainly be something. In terms of sun angles it would almost be like getting snow at the end of August/beginning of September.

[Deweydog]

7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Right now it appears the possible El Nino for later this year is off.  Might be looking at a third year Nina with a positive QBO next winter.

January 2023.

[Meatyorologist]

[Timmy Supercell]

4 hours ago, TacomaWaWx said:

That’s Lake crescent west of port Angeles I believe. 

I remember Port Angeles getting 2' feet of snow in one storm, a few times recently. lol

[Meatyorologist]

12z Euro does not back down like the GFS does. 12z EPS is much colder than its 00z run.

[Dan the Weatherman]

59 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Right now it appears the possible El Nino for later this year is off.  Might be looking at a third year Nina with a positive QBO next winter.

Whatever happens next year, I just hope that the West gets a wetter winter overall because so much of the region is experiencing severe to extreme drought conditions right now thanks to this past decade setting dry records left and right especially in California and surrounding areas. I also realize that much of the PNW has been in drought at times (and still is in many areas) over the last decade as well.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looking good. Exciting stuff ahead. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I expect the 18z will get us back On track! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

We are finally entering the regime I had hoped to see this spring.  Really nice roller coaster / trough, ridge, trough pattern coming up.  Not sure what went wrong in March.  It was just a total mess.

I wouldn’t call March a mess, just average and boring. 

[weatherfan2012]

4 hours ago, Phil said:

Oh yeah, -ENSO base state is rock solid at the moment.

How that translates to warm season patterns is less clear. We’re still in the post-1998 z-cell/WP era, after all.

But it can be overcome, as 2008-12 demonstrates. We’ll see what happens. This is the closest we’ve been since then.

It will be interesting to see if Larry Cosgrove concedes or if he is still on the El nino train in the fall in his weather America tonight.

[Phil]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

Right now it appears the possible El Nino for later this year is off.  Might be looking at a third year Nina with a positive QBO next winter.

2022/23 will indeed be +QBO, in all likelihood. Should the Niña hold on, it would have potential to be a huge winter in the PNW region.

Of course that’s a long way off.

[Phil]

1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said:

12z Euro does not back down like the GFS does. 12z EPS is much colder than its 00z run.

Wetter than average, as well.

Week-2 looks even more promising with the axis of precipitation surpluses shifting farther south, into areas that badly need it.

[Kayla]

3 hours ago, Clancy MT DW9972 said:

Howdy all!   Now that we are into Spring,  I must say that since mid January to now has been absolutely uneventful in regards to any meaningful snow for my region "southwest MT".  Since October I have measured only 35" of snow this entire winter, which is quite a bummer, as we normally get more than twice that amount.  Anyways a trend I have noticed for a little over 2 years and I am sure many of you have as well, is that whenever the NWS posts their weekly, monthly, and 3 month outlooks for temps and precip chances for this region,  they have simply been way too generous in regards to better than average chances for above normal precip across much of the state. However,  when all is said and done, maybe a few localized areas wound up getting the predicted moisture. So even though I know its virtually impossible to accurately forecast that far out, how come they keep pushing for the above normal chances, when every previous outlook has failed miserably, and the next one will most likely as well?   I have been trying to figure out why even attempt to do an outlook that far in advance.   Thats my rant I thought I would share.

 

We've been a bit more fortunate down this way. Bozeman has seen 91" of snowfall so far this water year (since Oct 1st) and water equivalent is also running a little above average so far with 8" of precip to date. Mountains all around us are really suffering though with all the basins running only around 75% of average. 

[Kayla]

Getting some heavy wet sticking snow here currently and 33F. Praise the precipitation gods!

[Anti Marine Layer]

Did March go out like a lamb?

[RentonHill]

2 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

12z Euro does not back down like the GFS does. 12z EPS is much colder than its 00z run.

Trust the process

[AlTahoe]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

Wetter than average, as well.

Week-2 looks even more promising with the axis of precipitation surpluses shifting farther south, into areas that badly need it.

I just mt biked corral trail here in South lake tahoe today and there wasn't a patch of snow and the ground was bone dry. I don't even know what to say at this point. That Trail usually doesn't melt out till around memorial day. Even in the worst drought years it's not rideable in April. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

1 hour ago, Kayla said:

SA'ZA NAAW J NQE YCLA VCLEDWJEA OCSW EXQI SJT. NCHAYJW XJI IAAW 91" CV IWCSVJMM IC VJL EXQI SJEAL TAJL (IQWPA CPE 1IE) JWO SJEAL AGDQZJMAWE QI JMIC LDWWQWR J MQEEMA JNCZA JZALJRA IC VJL SQEX 8" CV FLAPQF EC OJEA. YCDWEJQWI JMM JLCDWO DI JLA LAJMMT IDVVALQWR EXCDRX SQEX JMM EXA NJIQWI LDWWQWR CWMT JLCDWO 75% CV JZALJRA.  

 

[Clancy MT DW9972]

1 hour ago, Kayla said:

Getting some heavy wet sticking snow here currently and 33F. Praise the precipitation gods!

In the last couple hours once the front went thru,  I saw a few flakes and tons of nonstop wind.  I just added up my total precip from Oct 2021 to Mar 31st and wound up with 3.53"  liquid total, and 1.70" so far for the year.  The really strange thing about this "winter" was that when we did actually get snow, it was never ever over 2" inches from each storm.  Every winter I can remember either wet or dry, we would certainly get at least 1 good dumping with over 5"inches or more.  Bozeman has been lucking out though,  but I can certainly tell that all the mountains in this region are not looking too great. I will say this though,  I have all the respect in the world for the NWS, however its concerning when they get everyones hopes up promising moisture and then end up with nothing.  lol.