April 2022 (April 2008/2011 redux)

[snow_wizard]

Just now, TacomaWaWx said:

The new euro looked pretty dynamic. 

No doubt.  This is unquestionably my favorite regime for April.  Really nice snow potential for the mountains and frost in lowlands.  Could be a couple of much below normal daily averages during the next 10 days.

[Skagit Weather]

The 8" of snow shown here on the Euro would certainly be something. In terms of sun angles it would almost be like getting snow at the end of August/beginning of September.

[Deweydog]

7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Right now it appears the possible El Nino for later this year is off.  Might be looking at a third year Nina with a positive QBO next winter.

January 2023.

[Meatyorologist]

[Timmy Supercell]

4 hours ago, TacomaWaWx said:

That’s Lake crescent west of port Angeles I believe. 

I remember Port Angeles getting 2' feet of snow in one storm, a few times recently. lol

[Meatyorologist]

12z Euro does not back down like the GFS does. 12z EPS is much colder than its 00z run.

[Dan the Weatherman]

59 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Right now it appears the possible El Nino for later this year is off.  Might be looking at a third year Nina with a positive QBO next winter.

Whatever happens next year, I just hope that the West gets a wetter winter overall because so much of the region is experiencing severe to extreme drought conditions right now thanks to this past decade setting dry records left and right especially in California and surrounding areas. I also realize that much of the PNW has been in drought at times (and still is in many areas) over the last decade as well.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looking good. Exciting stuff ahead. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I expect the 18z will get us back On track! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

We are finally entering the regime I had hoped to see this spring.  Really nice roller coaster / trough, ridge, trough pattern coming up.  Not sure what went wrong in March.  It was just a total mess.

I wouldn’t call March a mess, just average and boring. 

[weatherfan2012]

4 hours ago, Phil said:

Oh yeah, -ENSO base state is rock solid at the moment.

How that translates to warm season patterns is less clear. We’re still in the post-1998 z-cell/WP era, after all.

But it can be overcome, as 2008-12 demonstrates. We’ll see what happens. This is the closest we’ve been since then.

It will be interesting to see if Larry Cosgrove concedes or if he is still on the El nino train in the fall in his weather America tonight.

[Phil]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

Right now it appears the possible El Nino for later this year is off.  Might be looking at a third year Nina with a positive QBO next winter.

2022/23 will indeed be +QBO, in all likelihood. Should the Niña hold on, it would have potential to be a huge winter in the PNW region.

Of course that’s a long way off.

[Phil]

1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said:

12z Euro does not back down like the GFS does. 12z EPS is much colder than its 00z run.

Wetter than average, as well.

Week-2 looks even more promising with the axis of precipitation surpluses shifting farther south, into areas that badly need it.

[Kayla]

3 hours ago, Clancy MT DW9972 said:

Howdy all!   Now that we are into Spring,  I must say that since mid January to now has been absolutely uneventful in regards to any meaningful snow for my region "southwest MT".  Since October I have measured only 35" of snow this entire winter, which is quite a bummer, as we normally get more than twice that amount.  Anyways a trend I have noticed for a little over 2 years and I am sure many of you have as well, is that whenever the NWS posts their weekly, monthly, and 3 month outlooks for temps and precip chances for this region,  they have simply been way too generous in regards to better than average chances for above normal precip across much of the state. However,  when all is said and done, maybe a few localized areas wound up getting the predicted moisture. So even though I know its virtually impossible to accurately forecast that far out, how come they keep pushing for the above normal chances, when every previous outlook has failed miserably, and the next one will most likely as well?   I have been trying to figure out why even attempt to do an outlook that far in advance.   Thats my rant I thought I would share.

 

We've been a bit more fortunate down this way. Bozeman has seen 91" of snowfall so far this water year (since Oct 1st) and water equivalent is also running a little above average so far with 8" of precip to date. Mountains all around us are really suffering though with all the basins running only around 75% of average. 

[Kayla]

Getting some heavy wet sticking snow here currently and 33F. Praise the precipitation gods!

[Mr Marine Layer]

Did March go out like a lamb?

[RentonHill]

2 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

12z Euro does not back down like the GFS does. 12z EPS is much colder than its 00z run.

Trust the process

[AlTahoe]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

Wetter than average, as well.

Week-2 looks even more promising with the axis of precipitation surpluses shifting farther south, into areas that badly need it.

I just mt biked corral trail here in South lake tahoe today and there wasn't a patch of snow and the ground was bone dry. I don't even know what to say at this point. That Trail usually doesn't melt out till around memorial day. Even in the worst drought years it's not rideable in April. 

[Mr Marine Layer]

1 hour ago, Kayla said:

SA'ZA NAAW J NQE YCLA VCLEDWJEA OCSW EXQI SJT. NCHAYJW XJI IAAW 91" CV IWCSVJMM IC VJL EXQI SJEAL TAJL (IQWPA CPE 1IE) JWO SJEAL AGDQZJMAWE QI JMIC LDWWQWR J MQEEMA JNCZA JZALJRA IC VJL SQEX 8" CV FLAPQF EC OJEA. YCDWEJQWI JMM JLCDWO DI JLA LAJMMT IDVVALQWR EXCDRX SQEX JMM EXA NJIQWI LDWWQWR CWMT JLCDWO 75% CV JZALJRA.  

 

[Clancy MT DW9972]

1 hour ago, Kayla said:

Getting some heavy wet sticking snow here currently and 33F. Praise the precipitation gods!

In the last couple hours once the front went thru,  I saw a few flakes and tons of nonstop wind.  I just added up my total precip from Oct 2021 to Mar 31st and wound up with 3.53"  liquid total, and 1.70" so far for the year.  The really strange thing about this "winter" was that when we did actually get snow, it was never ever over 2" inches from each storm.  Every winter I can remember either wet or dry, we would certainly get at least 1 good dumping with over 5"inches or more.  Bozeman has been lucking out though,  but I can certainly tell that all the mountains in this region are not looking too great. I will say this though,  I have all the respect in the world for the NWS, however its concerning when they get everyones hopes up promising moisture and then end up with nothing.  lol.  

[Meatyorologist]

32 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

 

I read that out loud and the furniture in my room began to levitate

[Phil]

18z GEFS mean looks like the 12z EPS. Impressive agreement from this range.

[T-Town]

34 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

I read that out loud and the furniture in my room began to levitate

 

[MossMan]

Even though I am coughing up a lung and having a steady stream of mucusy clearish liquid flowing from my nose…I still got out and sprayed weeds since this is looking like my only opportunity before the non mucusy clear liquid starts flowing from the sky again! 

[TacomaWaWx]

56/41 today. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Nice day. 

[Deweydog]

35 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Even though I am coughing up a lung and having a steady stream of mucusy clearish liquid flowing from my nose…I still got out and sprayed weeds since this is looking like my only opportunity before the non mucusy clear liquid starts flowing from the sky again! 

I had a cold on 4/19/08.

[Meatyorologist]

41 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Even though I am coughing up a lung and having a steady stream of mucusy clearish liquid flowing from my nose…I still got out and sprayed weeds since this is looking like my only opportunity before the non mucusy clear liquid starts flowing from the sky again! 

Analogs?

[Kayla]

2 hours ago, Clancy MT DW9972 said:

In the last couple hours once the front went thru,  I saw a few flakes and tons of nonstop wind.  I just added up my total precip from Oct 2021 to Mar 31st and wound up with 3.53"  liquid total, and 1.70" so far for the year.  The really strange thing about this "winter" was that when we did actually get snow, it was never ever over 2" inches from each storm.  Every winter I can remember either wet or dry, we would certainly get at least 1 good dumping with over 5"inches or more.  Bozeman has been lucking out though,  but I can certainly tell that all the mountains in this region are not looking too great. I will say this though,  I have all the respect in the world for the NWS, however its concerning when they get everyones hopes up promising moisture and then end up with nothing.  lol.  

Yeah pretty much all of Central and Eastern MT is in a world of hurt. Bozeman is the one spot that has been closer to average within the region.

I will say that the upcoming pattern does show some promise for more widespread soaking precip chances for much of the area so fingers crossed it verifies! 

[Omegaraptor]

4 hours ago, Phil said:

2022/23 will indeed be +QBO, in all likelihood. Should the Niña hold on, it would have potential to be a huge winter in the PNW region.

Of course that’s a long way off.

Are there any third year Niña + westerly QBO winters even in the record to use as analogs?

[MossMan]

42 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Analogs?

2008! 

[Cascadia_Wx]

58/43 day partly to mostly sunny even though it’s been a troughy pattern the last 3-4 days there has been lots of sunshine 

Clouds increasing now and 55 looking forward to a good soaking later tomorrow through Monday 

[Clancy MT DW9972]

36 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Yeah pretty much all of Central and Eastern MT is in a world of hurt. Bozeman is the one spot that has been closer to average within the region.

I will say that the upcoming pattern does show some promise for more widespread soaking precip chances for much of the area so fingers crossed it verifies! 

I should perform a rain dance!  Funny thing though, back in early 2002, a large group of folks on 1 of the reservations somewhere in the state, can't remember which one, performed a rain dance performance which was in the newspapers and the local news stations!  And guess what?  the vast majority of the state ended that year with well above normal moisture!  

[Phil]

56 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Are there any third year Niña + westerly QBO winters even in the record to use as analogs?

The only one I can think of is 1975/76, but there was a lot going on during that stretch that made for bizarre outcomes (which culminated in the great pacific climate shift the subsequent year).

So not very analogous to the present era.

[Front Ranger]

6 hours ago, Dan the Weatherman said:

Whatever happens next year, I just hope that the West gets a wetter winter overall because so much of the region is experiencing severe to extreme drought conditions right now thanks to this past decade setting dry records left and right especially in California and surrounding areas. I also realize that much of the PNW has been in drought at times (and still is in many areas) over the last decade as well.

 

1 hour ago, Clancy MT DW9972 said:

I should perform a rain dance!  Funny thing though, back in early 2002, a large group of folks on 1 of the reservations somewhere in the state, can't remember which one, performed a rain dance performance which was in the newspapers and the local news stations!  And guess what?  the vast majority of the state ended that year with well above normal moisture!  

There you go, Dan. CA just needs to hire a good rain dance group. I'm sure they can afford it with all that tax revenue.

[awright-31]

04-01-2022 OBS for MBY

High temp - 53* recorded at 1:31 pm
Low temp - 35* recorded at 6:31 am

New precip - T"
April precip to date - T"
(<1% of monthly normal)

[Cascadia_Wx]

Starting to look like the biggest weather story in the next week could be the warmth on Thursday 

[Skagit Weather]

I honestly can't remember the last time the 84 hr snow forecast map looked like this. I've seen the 168 hr map maxed out a number of times, but it's been a while since this amount of snow fell in two days. I think snow levels might be a tad too high at the start for maximum accumulation, but it will still be boatloads of snow.

[Meatyorologist]

lawdy.. 

[Meatyorologist]

It's still amplifying btw...

[Meatyorologist]

Going to bed now... I'm sure this will tickle some of your fancy

[TacomaWaWx]

Got down to 43 here this morning no rain yet. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Low of 43 here as well mostly cloudy and just a little drizzle so far 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yesterday was so nice. 53/37. Cloudy and 38 now. 

[MossMan]

17 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yesterday was so nice. 53/37. Cloudy and 38 now. 

.05” so far on the day here. 40 degrees. 

[Blizzard777]

Dry roads but it will be here soon and wind advisory for Monday.  Some excitement in the weather world. 
 

45*

[T-Town]

15 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

Dry roads but it will be here soon and wind advisory for Monday.  Some excitement in the weather world. 
 

45*

Best part of spring is the weather variety. Enjoyed happy hour on the deck yesterday, looking forward to a couple days of stormy weather now. 

[ShawniganLake]

Snow level is going to be pretty low in SW BC later this evening.  I’d guess areas above 500-1000ft could see some snow in the air. 

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS is actually quite dry after the big system coming through tonight and tomorrow.

[Phil]

47 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z GFS is actually quite dry after the big system coming through tonight and tomorrow.

Hard to take the GFS at face value given its inconsistency in the medium/long range. Though that always seems to be the case following periods of -dAAMt. The upcoming pattern (as it would present within the in situ state) doesn’t appear to carry substantial potential for negative precip departures in that region.

That said, the pattern will almost certainly become more meridional during week-2, so excessive precipitation doesn’t seem like a widespread risk in northern regions, either.