April 2022 (April 2008/2011 redux)

[TacomaWaWx]

53/38 today…our coolest day in 2 weeks. It also looks like our 6 day dry streak will be ending soon. 

[Mr Marine Layer]

How low will it snow?

[FroYoBro]

51 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Actually gonna be on Kauai during our mid-month slopmageddon.

Sorry Tim, you can't come!!

Every PNW weenie knows to never leave town in April!

[Meatyorologist]

[Meatyorologist]

[TacomaWaWx]

Raining. 

[MossMan]

Raining. 45. 

 

[TT-SEA]

1 hour ago, BLI snowman said:

Actually gonna be on Kauai during our mid-month slopmageddon.

Sorry Tim, you can't come!!

Nice!   Which side of the island?

 

[BLI snowman]

9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Nice!   Which side of the island?

 

Poipu, but gonna have a rental car so should be doing plenty of hikes around the island.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Poipu, but gonna have a rental car so should be doing plenty of hikes around the island.

Poipu is our favorite spot.   

Kalapaki Joe's has a spectacular happy hour.  Are you staying at Kiahuna Plantation by any chance?   

[BLI snowman]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Poipu is our favorite spot.   

Kalapaki Joe's has a spectacular happy hour.  Are you staying at Kiahuna Plantation by any chance?   

Actually at the Sheraton which is right next door I think.

[awright-31]

03-31-2022 OBS for MBY

High temp - 55* recorded at 5:45 pm
Low temp - 33* recorded at 7:15 am

New precip - 0.00"
Final March precip total - 2.82"
(53% of monthly normal)

[Phil]

1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said:

Maybe summer will get cancelled too. 

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Maybe summer will get cancelled too. 

one can hope

[Timmy]

[Phil]

00z GFS is balls to the wall cold. Subzero 850mb temps surge all the way down to Baja California.

[Meatyorologist]

25 minutes ago, Timmy said:

Holy shit, @TigerWoodsLibido get in here!

[Meatyorologist]

516dm 1000-500mb thickness off the WA coast 

[TT-SEA]

2 hours ago, BLI snowman said:

Actually at the Sheraton which is right next door I think.

Yep... same beach.   

[RentonHillTC]

44 minutes ago, Timmy said:

[TacomaWaWx]

Not much rainfall here just 0.03”. 

[DJ Droppin]

00z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

[DJ Droppin]

00z ECMWF 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals. Is it early April, or early January? I can't tell. This is bonkers. Cold enough for Socks!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

What the fuckk?

[Meatyorologist]

44 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

00z ECMWF 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals. Is it early April, or early January? I can't tell. This is bonkers. Cold enough for Socks!

Wow. My god.

Though we did see some issues back in December for its rather…generous…marginal setups. Andrew and Tim will be fine.

[Meatyorologist]

EPS holding strong

[smerfylicious]

Wow any shot of El Nino has been kicked to late fall/early winter. Maybe we won't be a BBQ this summer?

Now if only I could get my bilberries to germinate...any suggestions Tim?

[Mr Marine Layer]

9 hours ago, RentonHillTC said:

[T-Town]

Another nice morning here. 44 degrees with clouds and sun. Was hoping for a bit more rain last night but it sounds like there’s a good amount on the way. 

[Jginmartini]

Thought I was going to be rained out in the Olympics yesterday…April Fools I suppose!  Mount Storm King hike was awesome!!!  Temp up there was around 39* 

[Jginmartini]

1 minute ago, T-Town said:

Another nice morning here. 44 degrees with clouds and sun. Was hoping for a bit more rain last night but it sounds like there’s a good amount on the way. 

Beautiful morning indeed 
.06 overnight here

[T-Town]

7 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

Thought I was going to be rained out in the Olympics yesterday…April Fools I suppose!  Mount Storm King hike was awesome!!!  Temp up there was around 39* 

Awesome shot. What’s the body of water?

[TacomaWaWx]

1 minute ago, T-Town said:

Awesome shot. What’s the body of water?

That’s Lake crescent west of port Angeles I believe. 

[TacomaWaWx]

Got down to 41 here this morning. Trees are getting real close to leafing out here. 

[TacomaWaWx]

Last nights euro run was pretty dynamic. High temps in the low 70s on one day and lowland snow a couple days later with highs in the mid 40s. Not to mention the cascades get one of their biggest snowstorms of the season in April. Would be 2008ish if it verified. 

[Phil]

7 hours ago, smerfylicious said:

Wow any shot of El Nino has been kicked to late fall/early winter. Maybe we won't be a BBQ this summer?

Now if only I could get my bilberries to germinate...any suggestions Tim?

Oh yeah, -ENSO base state is rock solid at the moment.

How that translates to warm season patterns is less clear. We’re still in the post-1998 z-cell/WP era, after all.

But it can be overcome, as 2008-12 demonstrates. We’ll see what happens. This is the closest we’ve been since then.

[Jginmartini]

50 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Awesome shot. What’s the body of water?

TacomaWaWx is all over it!   You can see the Strait of Juan de Fuca just behind the mountain as well

[Cascadia_Wx]

59/37 day here yesterday picked up over .20” of rain yesterday evening and overnight a little more than expected maybe that will bode well for the upcoming systems too 

Mostly cloudy this morning with a low of 43

[Phil]

EPS also projecting the next round of large scale WPAC subsidence by the end of week-2, which is a precursor to another trade wind burst later this month.

And trades are already stronger than average over the dateline despite the unfavorable MJO/intraseasonal state. The background state appears to be dominant at this time.

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

EPS also projecting the next round of large scale WPAC subsidence by the end of week-2, which is a precursor to another trade wind burst later this month.

And trades are already stronger than average over the dateline despite the unfavorable MJO/intraseasonal state. The background state appears to be dominant at this time.

Dude, I appreciate the heck out of your forecasts, but can we get an idiot’s version too please? Like “it’s going to be colder than a snake’s a** in the PNW” or something like that.

[TacomaWaWx]

Will be interesting to see how April plays out this year compared to 2021 and 2020. Both months featured significant dry streaks. 14 days in 2021 and 18 days in 2020. Last April was very dry…just 1.16” for the month and a week of +70 weather hitting 80 on 4/18. 2020 turned wet in the final 1/3 but the first 2/3rds of the month were bone dry. The system coming in a couple days is definitely more significant than we’ve seen in April in recent years. 

[Kayla]

I haven't really been following the models much lately but the 12z GFS is really unimpressive for the west as a whole. 

[MossMan]

That last time my mother in law flew in from Arizona I was sick and we were about to hit the December 2021 arctic madness…She is flying in today and for the first time since then I am sick again…Looks like a snowy April to remember upcoming. I am not nearly as excited this time. 

[MossMan]

.13” so far on the day, .30” for the month, 18.27 for the year. 
44 and cloudy. Had a low of 38. 
I don’t like Aprils…At all. 

[Clancy MT DW9972]

Howdy all!   Now that we are into Spring,  I must say that since mid January to now has been absolutely uneventful in regards to any meaningful snow for my region "southwest MT".  Since October I have measured only 35" of snow this entire winter, which is quite a bummer, as we normally get more than twice that amount.  Anyways a trend I have noticed for a little over 2 years and I am sure many of you have as well, is that whenever the NWS posts their weekly, monthly, and 3 month outlooks for temps and precip chances for this region,  they have simply been way too generous in regards to better than average chances for above normal precip across much of the state. However,  when all is said and done, maybe a few localized areas wound up getting the predicted moisture. So even though I know its virtually impossible to accurately forecast that far out, how come they keep pushing for the above normal chances, when every previous outlook has failed miserably, and the next one will most likely as well?   I have been trying to figure out why even attempt to do an outlook that far in advance.   Thats my rant I thought I would share.

 

[AlTahoe]

1 hour ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Will be interesting to see how April plays out this year compared to 2021 and 2020. Both months featured significant dry streaks. 14 days in 2021 and 18 days in 2020. Last April was very dry…just 1.16” for the month and a week of +70 weather hitting 80 on 4/18. 2020 turned wet in the final 1/3 but the first 2/3rds of the month were bone dry. The system coming in a couple days is definitely more significant than we’ve seen in April in recent years. 

Welp the Gfs has taken away all precip for California even though it had been showing storms for a week now. Tahoe city has never recorded a zero precip month for April before. I have a feeling we will continue the record dry streak through April. Summer started Jan 4th this year for us. 

[TacomaWaWx]

6 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

Welp the Gfs has taken away all precip for California even though it had been showing storms for a week now. Tahoe city has never recorded a zero precip month for April before. I have a feeling we will continue the record dry streak through April. Summer started Jan 4th this year for us. 

It’d be very frustrating living down there with such a boom or bust potential. Pretty sad seeing how bad the droughts been getting in the west recently. We’ve got it pretty nice up here compared to just about anywhere  to the south and east. 

[snow_wizard]

We are finally entering the regime I had hoped to see this spring.  Really nice roller coaster / trough, ridge, trough pattern coming up.  Not sure what went wrong in March.  It was just a total mess.

[TacomaWaWx]

10 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

We are finally entering the regime I had hoped to see this spring.  Really nice roller coaster / trough, ridge, trough pattern coming up.  Not sure what went wrong in March.  It was just a total mess.

The new euro looked pretty dynamic. 

[snow_wizard]

Right now it appears the possible El Nino for later this year is off.  Might be looking at a third year Nina with a positive QBO next winter.