April 2022 (April 2008/2011 redux)

[Meatyorologist]

32 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

 

I read that out loud and the furniture in my room began to levitate

[Phil]

18z GEFS mean looks like the 12z EPS. Impressive agreement from this range.

[T-Town]

34 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

I read that out loud and the furniture in my room began to levitate

 

[MossMan]

Even though I am coughing up a lung and having a steady stream of mucusy clearish liquid flowing from my nose…I still got out and sprayed weeds since this is looking like my only opportunity before the non mucusy clear liquid starts flowing from the sky again! 

[TacomaWaWx]

56/41 today. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Nice day. 

[Deweydog]

35 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Even though I am coughing up a lung and having a steady stream of mucusy clearish liquid flowing from my nose…I still got out and sprayed weeds since this is looking like my only opportunity before the non mucusy clear liquid starts flowing from the sky again! 

I had a cold on 4/19/08.

[Meatyorologist]

41 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Even though I am coughing up a lung and having a steady stream of mucusy clearish liquid flowing from my nose…I still got out and sprayed weeds since this is looking like my only opportunity before the non mucusy clear liquid starts flowing from the sky again! 

Analogs?

[Kayla]

2 hours ago, Clancy MT DW9972 said:

In the last couple hours once the front went thru,  I saw a few flakes and tons of nonstop wind.  I just added up my total precip from Oct 2021 to Mar 31st and wound up with 3.53"  liquid total, and 1.70" so far for the year.  The really strange thing about this "winter" was that when we did actually get snow, it was never ever over 2" inches from each storm.  Every winter I can remember either wet or dry, we would certainly get at least 1 good dumping with over 5"inches or more.  Bozeman has been lucking out though,  but I can certainly tell that all the mountains in this region are not looking too great. I will say this though,  I have all the respect in the world for the NWS, however its concerning when they get everyones hopes up promising moisture and then end up with nothing.  lol.  

Yeah pretty much all of Central and Eastern MT is in a world of hurt. Bozeman is the one spot that has been closer to average within the region.

I will say that the upcoming pattern does show some promise for more widespread soaking precip chances for much of the area so fingers crossed it verifies! 

[Omegaraptor]

4 hours ago, Phil said:

2022/23 will indeed be +QBO, in all likelihood. Should the Niña hold on, it would have potential to be a huge winter in the PNW region.

Of course that’s a long way off.

Are there any third year Niña + westerly QBO winters even in the record to use as analogs?

[MossMan]

42 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Analogs?

2008! 

[Cascadia_Wx]

58/43 day partly to mostly sunny even though it’s been a troughy pattern the last 3-4 days there has been lots of sunshine 

Clouds increasing now and 55 looking forward to a good soaking later tomorrow through Monday 

[Clancy MT DW9972]

36 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Yeah pretty much all of Central and Eastern MT is in a world of hurt. Bozeman is the one spot that has been closer to average within the region.

I will say that the upcoming pattern does show some promise for more widespread soaking precip chances for much of the area so fingers crossed it verifies! 

I should perform a rain dance!  Funny thing though, back in early 2002, a large group of folks on 1 of the reservations somewhere in the state, can't remember which one, performed a rain dance performance which was in the newspapers and the local news stations!  And guess what?  the vast majority of the state ended that year with well above normal moisture!  

[Phil]

56 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Are there any third year Niña + westerly QBO winters even in the record to use as analogs?

The only one I can think of is 1975/76, but there was a lot going on during that stretch that made for bizarre outcomes (which culminated in the great pacific climate shift the subsequent year).

So not very analogous to the present era.

[Front Ranger]

6 hours ago, Dan the Weatherman said:

Whatever happens next year, I just hope that the West gets a wetter winter overall because so much of the region is experiencing severe to extreme drought conditions right now thanks to this past decade setting dry records left and right especially in California and surrounding areas. I also realize that much of the PNW has been in drought at times (and still is in many areas) over the last decade as well.

 

1 hour ago, Clancy MT DW9972 said:

I should perform a rain dance!  Funny thing though, back in early 2002, a large group of folks on 1 of the reservations somewhere in the state, can't remember which one, performed a rain dance performance which was in the newspapers and the local news stations!  And guess what?  the vast majority of the state ended that year with well above normal moisture!  

There you go, Dan. CA just needs to hire a good rain dance group. I'm sure they can afford it with all that tax revenue.

[awright-31]

04-01-2022 OBS for MBY

High temp - 53* recorded at 1:31 pm
Low temp - 35* recorded at 6:31 am

New precip - T"
April precip to date - T"
(<1% of monthly normal)

[Cascadia_Wx]

Starting to look like the biggest weather story in the next week could be the warmth on Thursday 

[Skagit Weather]

I honestly can't remember the last time the 84 hr snow forecast map looked like this. I've seen the 168 hr map maxed out a number of times, but it's been a while since this amount of snow fell in two days. I think snow levels might be a tad too high at the start for maximum accumulation, but it will still be boatloads of snow.

[Meatyorologist]

lawdy.. 

[Meatyorologist]

It's still amplifying btw...

[Meatyorologist]

Going to bed now... I'm sure this will tickle some of your fancy

[TacomaWaWx]

Got down to 43 here this morning no rain yet. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Low of 43 here as well mostly cloudy and just a little drizzle so far 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yesterday was so nice. 53/37. Cloudy and 38 now. 

[MossMan]

17 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yesterday was so nice. 53/37. Cloudy and 38 now. 

.05” so far on the day here. 40 degrees. 

[Blizzard777]

Dry roads but it will be here soon and wind advisory for Monday.  Some excitement in the weather world. 
 

45*

[T-Town]

15 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

Dry roads but it will be here soon and wind advisory for Monday.  Some excitement in the weather world. 
 

45*

Best part of spring is the weather variety. Enjoyed happy hour on the deck yesterday, looking forward to a couple days of stormy weather now. 

[ShawniganLake]

Snow level is going to be pretty low in SW BC later this evening.  I’d guess areas above 500-1000ft could see some snow in the air. 

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS is actually quite dry after the big system coming through tonight and tomorrow.

[Phil]

47 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z GFS is actually quite dry after the big system coming through tonight and tomorrow.

Hard to take the GFS at face value given its inconsistency in the medium/long range. Though that always seems to be the case following periods of -dAAMt. The upcoming pattern (as it would present within the in situ state) doesn’t appear to carry substantial potential for negative precip departures in that region.

That said, the pattern will almost certainly become more meridional during week-2, so excessive precipitation doesn’t seem like a widespread risk in northern regions, either. 

[MossMan]

Stopped by my old stomping grounds this morning…The golf course I spent nearly a decade working at back in the late 90’s into the 2000’s. It shut down a few years ago and has since been newly resurrected as a disc golf course. I had no idea how popular it is, in all my years I rarely saw the parking lot that full like it was this morning. Good to see that property being utilized again. Though #9 Fairway is not up to my grooming standards haha! 

[RentonHill]

1 hour ago, MossMan said:

Stopped by my old stomping grounds this morning…The golf course I spent nearly a decade working at back in the late 90’s into the 2000’s. It shut down a few years ago and has since been newly resurrected as a disc golf course. I had no idea how popular it is, in all my years I rarely saw the parking lot that full like it was this morning. Good to see that property being utilized again. Though #9 Fairway is not up to my grooming standards haha! 

Harbour Point?

[Blizzard777]

1 hour ago, MossMan said:

Stopped by my old stomping grounds this morning…The golf course I spent nearly a decade working at back in the late 90’s into the 2000’s. It shut down a few years ago and has since been newly resurrected as a disc golf course. I had no idea how popular it is, in all my years I rarely saw the parking lot that full like it was this morning. Good to see that property being utilized again. Though #9 Fairway is not up to my grooming standards haha! 

Played a few times…..and wow is it busy! 

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF is fairly dry after the big system tonight and tomorrow. 

[RentonHill]

18 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF is fairly dry after the big system tonight and tomorrow. 

Dynamic temps

[TacomaWaWx]

Euros still showing the trough in the longer range being pretty chilly after some warmth next week. 

[TacomaWaWx]

Should be raining here fairly soon…53 here and a little breezy. 

[MossMan]

1 hour ago, RentonHillTC said:

Harbour Point?

Kayak Point

[RentonHill]

31 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Kayak Point

Ah. Played that once in probably 2002 or 2003 with a good friend and his grandfather who died not too long after. One of my childhood golf courses where I spent many summers at camp etc closed down in mid aughts sometime. Was so weird to see it overgrown and abandoned. They did nothing with it. Tall chief RIP

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Another nice sunny day.