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April 2022 (April 2008/2011 redux)


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47 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z GFS is actually quite dry after the big system coming through tonight and tomorrow.

Hard to take the GFS at face value given its inconsistency in the medium/long range. Though that always seems to be the case following periods of -dAAMt. The upcoming pattern (as it would present within the in situ state) doesn’t appear to carry substantial potential for negative precip departures in that region.

That said, the pattern will almost certainly become more meridional during week-2, so excessive precipitation doesn’t seem like a widespread risk in northern regions, either. 

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Stopped by my old stomping grounds this morning…The golf course I spent nearly a decade working at back in the late 90’s into the 2000’s. It shut down a few years ago and has since been newly resurrected as a disc golf course. I had no idea how popular it is, in all my years I rarely saw the parking lot that full like it was this morning. Good to see that property being utilized again. Though #9 Fairway is not up to my grooming standards haha! 

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FA64890A-EB6B-4AC2-97C1-CBEE97C07B6D.jpeg

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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1 hour ago, MossMan said:

Stopped by my old stomping grounds this morning…The golf course I spent nearly a decade working at back in the late 90’s into the 2000’s. It shut down a few years ago and has since been newly resurrected as a disc golf course. I had no idea how popular it is, in all my years I rarely saw the parking lot that full like it was this morning. Good to see that property being utilized again. Though #9 Fairway is not up to my grooming standards haha! 

E81FF6CE-77F7-432C-9F42-1A29F391C1EE.jpeg

FA64890A-EB6B-4AC2-97C1-CBEE97C07B6D.jpeg

Harbour Point?

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1 hour ago, MossMan said:

Stopped by my old stomping grounds this morning…The golf course I spent nearly a decade working at back in the late 90’s into the 2000’s. It shut down a few years ago and has since been newly resurrected as a disc golf course. I had no idea how popular it is, in all my years I rarely saw the parking lot that full like it was this morning. Good to see that property being utilized again. Though #9 Fairway is not up to my grooming standards haha! 

E81FF6CE-77F7-432C-9F42-1A29F391C1EE.jpeg

FA64890A-EB6B-4AC2-97C1-CBEE97C07B6D.jpeg

Played a few times…..and wow is it busy! 

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Euros still showing the trough in the longer range being pretty chilly after some warmth next week. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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1 hour ago, RentonHillTC said:

Harbour Point?

Kayak Point

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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31 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Kayak Point

Ah. Played that once in probably 2002 or 2003 with a good friend and his grandfather who died not too long after. One of my childhood golf courses where I spent many summers at camp etc closed down in mid aughts sometime. Was so weird to see it overgrown and abandoned. They did nothing with it. Tall chief RIP

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  • Longtimer

Another nice sunny day. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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43 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Ah. Played that once in probably 2002 or 2003 with a good friend and his grandfather who died not too long after. One of my childhood golf courses where I spent many summers at camp etc closed down in mid aughts sometime. Was so weird to see it overgrown and abandoned. They did nothing with it. Tall chief RIP

If it was spring or summer when you played at Kayak you probably saw me in a hole digging up a irrigation mainline to fix one of so many leaks haha! Yeah I went and walked Kayak the summer after it shut down, it was surreal! Both pics are me standing on 7 green looking back at the fairway…Just 14 years apart. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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This is why the official term is Atmospheric River. Just downloaded this off COD weather. 

CODNEXLAB-GOES-West-global-npacwestlarge-truecolor-22_00Z-20220403_map_-30-1n-20-100.gif

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Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Cold Season

Snowfall - 16.1"
December: 0.1"
January: 9.9"
February: 1.3"
March: 4.8"

Snow days: 10 - 4.8" - 3/12
Cold Highs (32 or below): 7
Coolest: 21 (Jan 7th)
Extreme Lows (below 10): 4 
Minimum: 5 (Jan 22nd)
Max wind: 40mph (Feb 18th)

Thunders: 24
3/6, 3/23, 4/7, 4/11, 4/30, 5/1, 5/3, 5/6, 5/14, 5/16
5/20, 5/21, 5/27, 6/2, 6/6, 6/8, 6/13, 6/17, 6/22, 6/25
6/26, 6/27, 7/1, 7/2, 

Tornado Watches/Warnings: 2 / 0 
Severe T'storm Watches/Warnings: 3 / 2
Frequent Lightning: 2 (5/20), (6/13)
Hailstorms: 0
Max Wind: 50mph (6/13)

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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  • Longtimer

I had snow falling 2yrs ago today! 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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55 minutes ago, Phil said:

No sign of summer yet. Maybe it won’t show up this year.🤞

 

Yes... the first half April before even the mid-point of meteorological spring is usually considered summer.  

Seattle has the most hot and humid summers in the country... so hopefully no summer this year.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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18Z GFS also looks pretty dry over the next 10 days after we get through the next 30 hours.

gfs-deterministic-namer-qpf_anom_10day-9980800.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just got back from Pullman... light rain at home now.     The vegetation in far eastern WA is still just barely coming out of dormancy.    Central WA is much greener and the trees are farther along.    Its even more advanced here though... there was a huge difference in terms of spring progression in last 15 miles of that trip as we came down from Snoqualmie Pass.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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download (21).png

Thursday will be very nice out. Seattle may very well be one of the warmest areas Eugene north. After that the "hammer" drops from the north.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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So where is this rain and storm that was supposed to be here all day Sunday?  It's breezy and overcast, but nothing has happened yet.  It's been breezy since this morning. Radar is showing it's raining on me right now, but it isn't.  I also drove 10 miles away and it said it was raining, it also wasn't. 

Screen Shot 2022-04-03 at 5.34.23 PM.png

Screen Shot 2022-04-03 at 5.39.39 PM.png

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1 hour ago, Phil said:

No sign of summer yet. Maybe it won’t show up this year.🤞

 

It'll still be summer, just maybe not weeks straight of 100's. 

We all have different perceptions on what summer is; a cold July in most places actually feels nice. I bet that translates to 80 and days in a row of thunderstorms over here. 

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Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Cold Season

Snowfall - 16.1"
December: 0.1"
January: 9.9"
February: 1.3"
March: 4.8"

Snow days: 10 - 4.8" - 3/12
Cold Highs (32 or below): 7
Coolest: 21 (Jan 7th)
Extreme Lows (below 10): 4 
Minimum: 5 (Jan 22nd)
Max wind: 40mph (Feb 18th)

Thunders: 24
3/6, 3/23, 4/7, 4/11, 4/30, 5/1, 5/3, 5/6, 5/14, 5/16
5/20, 5/21, 5/27, 6/2, 6/6, 6/8, 6/13, 6/17, 6/22, 6/25
6/26, 6/27, 7/1, 7/2, 

Tornado Watches/Warnings: 2 / 0 
Severe T'storm Watches/Warnings: 3 / 2
Frequent Lightning: 2 (5/20), (6/13)
Hailstorms: 0
Max Wind: 50mph (6/13)

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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3 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

So where is this rain and storm that was supposed to be here all day Sunday?  It's breezy and overcast, but nothing has happened yet.  It's been breezy since this morning. Radar is showing it's raining on me right now, but it isn't.  I also drove 10 miles away and it said it was raining, it also wasn't. 

Your area is usually squarely in the rain shadow in these AR set ups with SW flow... not a surprise that its drier up there.    Its going exactly as the models showed.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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27 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

It'll still be summer, just maybe not weeks straight of 100's. 

We all have different perceptions on what summer is; a cold July in most places actually feels nice. I bet that translates to 80 and days in a row of thunderstorms over here. 

Yeah that was tongue in cheek. Pretty sure we’re going to roast this summer. But maybe we’ll get lucky and repeat 2008. 🤞 

Highs in the low 80s is as “cool” as it gets here in July unless there’s heavy precipitation that starts in the morning and lasts through midday. Which is rare.

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4 minutes ago, Phil said:

Yeah that was tongue in cheek. Pretty sure we’re going to roast this summer. But maybe we’ll get lucky and repeat 2008. 🤞 

Highs in the low 80s is as “cool” as it gets here in July unless there’s heavy precipitation that starts in the morning and lasts through midday. Which is rare.

All day sounds hard to achieve. But several courses from morning to night no problem. I'd on a rare occasion have a setup in K-Falls where a t'storm woke me up, another one 3-4 hours later, then one at dinner time, and one before I'm going to bed in the same day and still reached near forecast high temperature (maybe got to 88 and was supposed to be 92). 

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Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Cold Season

Snowfall - 16.1"
December: 0.1"
January: 9.9"
February: 1.3"
March: 4.8"

Snow days: 10 - 4.8" - 3/12
Cold Highs (32 or below): 7
Coolest: 21 (Jan 7th)
Extreme Lows (below 10): 4 
Minimum: 5 (Jan 22nd)
Max wind: 40mph (Feb 18th)

Thunders: 24
3/6, 3/23, 4/7, 4/11, 4/30, 5/1, 5/3, 5/6, 5/14, 5/16
5/20, 5/21, 5/27, 6/2, 6/6, 6/8, 6/13, 6/17, 6/22, 6/25
6/26, 6/27, 7/1, 7/2, 

Tornado Watches/Warnings: 2 / 0 
Severe T'storm Watches/Warnings: 3 / 2
Frequent Lightning: 2 (5/20), (6/13)
Hailstorms: 0
Max Wind: 50mph (6/13)

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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14 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

All day sounds hard to achieve. But several courses from morning to night no problem. I'd on a rare occasion have a setup in K-Falls where a t'storm woke me up, another one 3-4 hours later, then one at dinner time, and one before I'm going to bed in the same day and still reached near forecast high temperature (maybe got to 88 and was supposed to be 92). 

Yeah any sunshine and the temp will skyrocket. The real big severe days are often sunny/capped then erupt late in the day, around 4/5pm.

The days with lots of early convection tend towards more garden variety storms unless mid-level lapse rates are exceptionally steep (we often struggle with that).

The one thing you don’t want is to be sitting right under a ridge. Shuts down convection, and what little does develop has no shear to work with.

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12 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Man, two different offers on two different houses and lost out on both of them. I thought we were escaping the crazy housing market just a bit but it's just as bad over here. We went $16k over asking on one house and lost because the other offer went $33k over asking. Just stupid. It's been very stressful and challenging but we are trying to stay positive and keep going. Everything happens for a reason, right? That's what we are telling ourselves.

On a weather note, the same system affecting you guys now will bring wind, rain, and snow to South Dakota Tues-Thurs. It will be good to get more precip as most of SD and especially down into NE are experiencing drought conditions, some more extreme than others. Any little bit helps.

It’s still insane everywhere it sounds like. Also I just noticed that our house is now estimated to be worth over 400k from when we bought it 4yrs ago…INSANE! 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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1 hour ago, MossMan said:

It’s still insane everywhere it sounds like. Also I just noticed that our house is now estimated to be worth over 400k from when we bought it 4yrs ago…INSANE! 

Yeah... think I’ll just stay put. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Longtimer

Storm has arrived. Temp down to 43.9

and 0.04” in the bucket. Was actually sunny much of the day. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

 

 

 

Wow I can’t remember seeing that before. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Tomorrow could be pretty interesting weather wise. 45-50mph wind gusts and thunderstorm potential. Not to mention a good shot of rain and mountain snow. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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  • Longtimer

So what’s everyone doing this Thanksgiving evening?? Looks more like November not April! 

6DFE0F12-A60B-42E0-A707-6553D2DAC6AC.jpeg

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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6 minutes ago, MossMan said:

So what’s everyone doing this Thanksgiving evening?? Looks more like November not April! 

6DFE0F12-A60B-42E0-A707-6553D2DAC6AC.jpeg

It is somewhat interesting that we may get our strongest wind event of the season tomorrow. Definitely more interesting than April has been in awhile. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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33 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Tomorrow could be pretty interesting weather wise. 45-50mph wind gusts and thunderstorm potential. Not to mention a good shot of rain and mountain snow. 

Even a minor chance of lowland snow!!

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5 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Even a minor chance of lowland snow!!

I’m sure mossman will manage to get some snow somehow. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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