July 2022 Observations and Discussions

[Clinton]

With July right on our door step I thought I would fire up a thread.  The heat looks to be on for the plains and the south with below normal temps across the Great Lakes.

The CPC sees it this way to start July.

Precip looks above average across the northern half of the sub, but relief for @Andieis a big question mark.

This mornings GFS shows this for precipitation for the first week of the month.

The 4th of July will be nice and hot for the plains and the south but the northern plains and Great Lakes could have issues with rain as we celebrate our Independence Day.  The year is half over lets hope the 2nd half of the year brings the weather your looking for.  Let's discuss.

 

[Andie]

Heading for 98 today. 
They’re calling it “seasonably hot”. 
I have other titles for it.  
Drought still keeps truckin’

Precip is just a dream.  

[Clinton]

The Euro and GFS in good agreement on the placement of thunderstorms in the middle of the country over the 4th of July weekend.  For me I'm right on the edge between a whole lot and not much.

 

[Andie]

Sat/Sun 94* & 97* respectively.  
 

20% Chance of T Storms.  
( hey, it’s a chance! ) ……

[Iceresistance]

I have the 4th of July Fireworks and sparklers ready to go! I might videotape them.

 

The storm chances this 4th of July weekend may be a goner because 95L had a Center Reformation closer to Houston!  

[Clinton]

 

[CentralNebWeather]

Weekly agricultural forecast. Love watching this guy. Very informative. 

 

[Tom]

Starting on the 4th of July, a lot of us in the MW/GL's region are in the "Ring of Fire" zone.  The 0z Euro animation below is the quintessential placement of the Ridge that retrogrades west in time.  The pattern heading into the middle part of the month is looking quite interesting for the northern half the Sub.  Man, this is shaping up to be a fun pattern tracking multiple/daily MCS's or possible Derecho's.

 

0z UKIE is loaded!  #AtmosphericFireworks

 

0z Euro...not as enthusiastic but the idea is there....

[Tom]

Nice to see the Euro Weeklies continue to trend towards a dominant trough-like pattern for the eastern CONUS mid-late July.  Things are shaping up to be pretty good up this way and points east.

 

 

A new month and an entirely new pattern is shaping up for many on here...Holy WET!  #AgBelt #NWFlow...Cooler and Wet across the central AgBelt!

[OttumwaSnomow]

Tom, this is what I expect. 

[westMJim]

07/01/2022

Welcome to July. The official H/L at Grand Rapids yesterday was 89/62 there was no rain fall and there was 85% of possible sunshine. For today the average H/L is 83/62 the record high of 101 was set in 1931 the record low of 44 was in 1982. The overnight low in MBY was 71 and it is still 71 here with cloudy skies.

[westMJim]

A brief look at June 2022. At Grand Rapids the June mean was 69.2 That was a departure of just +0.3 so the month was just about average. The High for the month was 95 on the 21^st and the low was 45 on the 4^th there were 3 days of 90 or better 10 days of 85 or better. The coolest high was 65 on the 8^th While there were 2 nights when the low stayed above 70 most nights the lows were in the 50’s and there were a few lows in the 40’s. It was a sunny and dry month with 9 clear days and 19 partly cloudy days and only 2 cloudy days. There was just 1.42” of total rain fall. At Muskegon the mean there was 67.8 for a departure of just +0.4 that too is considered “average” they recorded 2.11” of rain fall. At Holland the mean there was 68.2 for a departure of jut +0.3 also considered “average” and they had 1.72” of rain fall. Over at Lansing they reported a mean of 71.0 for a departure of +3.0 for the largest departure from average not only in west Michigan but the largest departure by a good margin in the whole state of Michigan. Lansing only recorded 1.56” of rain fall.

 

[Timmy Supercell]

Very briefly had a low of 70 here.. 75 right now and kind of a light soggy haze.
Not enough to obscure the view of town.

Still waiting to see what June's rainfall was in Ashland, but looks like 5.25" fell in May. I would estimate around half that fell (or less) in the last month. February is the wettest so far with 5.82". 

[Clinton]

For the first time in exactly a month I feel like I have a real chance at seeing some thunderstorms tonight and maybe through the weekend.  The FV3 and 3km Nam along with the GFS all show 1-3 inches of rain in mby.  Hopefully @OttumwaSnomowhas received some rain this morning, it also looks like a good chance of rain a week from today it's nice to see some chances showing up.

10 day GFS hope @Tomis ready to swim

[tStacsh]

Literally One or two sprinkles this morning.  Been too busy to water.  Planning on underground sprinkling in the next year or two.  But my front lawn is toast.   Backyard ok because we water more.   It's dry.   

 

[Andie]

A reasonable Texas summer day.  
Currently 77. On our way to 96*
 

Rain?  What’s that? 

[Phil]

SBCAPE pushing 3000J/kg at 11AM and convection already firing up on the ridges. Could be a sign this afternoon will overperform here, downstream from the terrain.

Or not..lol. We’ll see. It’s been a very inconsistent storm season thus far.

[OttumwaSnomow]

3 hours ago, Clinton said:

For the first time in exactly a month I feel like I have a real chance at seeing some thunderstorms tonight and maybe through the weekend.  The FV3 and 3km Nam along with the GFS all show 1-3 inches of rain in mby.  Hopefully @OttumwaSnomowhas received some rain this morning, it also looks like a good chance of rain a week from today it's nice to see some chances showing up.

10 day GFS hope @Tomis ready to swim

Well, my complaints  worked!! .60 this am. Most steady light to moderate,  some rumbles of thunder.  As is typical  here behind the sagging  front in the cold air there was good lift  along hwy 34. Some spots 2 inches. Some got missed. Nice start to July. Need way more.

[Phil]

Texas/Gulf Coast just blowing away records. Troughing confined to the NW US again, consistent with La Niña.

Map by Brian B.

[Timmy Supercell]

Thunderstorm on the first day of July! 86 degrees and some booms from a few miles away. 

 

[Timmy Supercell]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

Texas/Gulf Coast just blowing away records. Troughing confined to the NW US again, consistent with La Niña.

Map by Brian B.

So, Ashland might have been average? I looked at last year and June 2021 was solidly cooler than this one. 

I guess those 75-79 degree days took down the mean a few notches. 

[Phil]

21 minutes ago, Timmy Supercell said:

So, Ashland might have been average? I looked at last year and June 2021 was solidly cooler than this one. 

I guess those 75-79 degree days took down the mean a few notches. 

Had some heat but it wasn’t very sustained. And humidity was low enough to drop temps decently at night relative to climo.

[CentralNebWeather]

Getting very dry around here. Lots of misses recently by a county or so. Corn and soybeans look good as irrigation is in full swing. Yards that have sprinkler systems look good, but the rest are struggling. With the horrendous economy, I think people are trying to save money any way they can, and possibly not watering is one way. Our town has stopped watering at the parks and at other city properties. Times are rough for sure. 

[Iceresistance]

The rain and storms from 95L are not coming here, it's too far to the east and south.

[Phil]

Lots of hefty storms around here today but all have missed me.

Constant thunder now with the cell to the west but it’s dying and won’t make it here. Might catch a few raindrops.

In the meantime, muggy after a midday high of 92°F (capped by convective cloud cover).

[Phil]

Ouch if this is real.

 

[Tom]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Ouch if this is real.

 

This kind of a ridge is one that can ignite some serious storms on its periphery.  I’m looking forward to the storm chances next week.

[Phil]

21 minutes ago, Tom said:

This kind of a ridge is one that can ignite some serious storms on its periphery.  I’m looking forward to the storm chances next week.

Yeah, seems you and @Timmy Supercell are well positioned for a long stretch of stormy weather in the ring of fire.

Michael Ventrice concurs.

 

[Timmy Supercell]

The cicadas have started to widen their window of singing. Now anytime from 7pm-9pm!

And loud firework just now down my street.. 

[Timmy Supercell]

Small t'storm came thru Ashland, started weak but by the time it went right over the river it started producing some CG's. Had a few close claps about 10 minutes ago. More cells from the west coming in. So flashing from two different areas right now. 

[OmahaSnowFan]

Had 1.04” of rain early this morning from some loud boomers. Good thing too as we hadn’t had any rain since the 16th of June and everything was rapidly turning brown.

Next week looks brutal

[OttumwaSnomow]

6 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Getting very dry around here. Lots of misses recently by a county or so. Corn and soybeans look good as irrigation is in full swing. Yards that have sprinkler systems look good, but the rest are struggling. With the horrendous economy, I think people are trying to save money any way they can, and possibly not watering is one way. Our town has stopped watering at the parks and at other city properties. Times are rough for sure. 

This subject always  surprises me.  Here our town is 25k population  so lots of businesses  and  folks  well off, plenty that are economically  challenged  as well.  We basically  see ZERO WATERING.  Except  maybe new lawns that have been seeded.  We mow 170 customers  and one is a 90 acre govt contract.   1 restaurant did water before covid, no more. On avg our summers are green with a few weeks burned  up.  But some years like 2012, 2013, 2017 and probably  2022 lawns are burned to a crisp for  months!  Even crops despite  months of 1 inch or so and temps either side of 100f zero irritating.  Maybe 1% along some rivers. Why?  Whats the nations obsession  with watering? Or better  yet. WHY NO WATERING  AT ALL HERE? EVEN WELL TO DO NATIONAL  BUSINESSES?

[westMJim]

July

Wow, time is sure flying by it just seems like yesterday it was the 1^st day of the new year and now it is the start of July. At Grand Rapids July in most years is the warmest month of the year. That was not the case in 2009 when both June and August were warmer. In 1947, 1900, 1937 and 1959 August was warmer than July. In the case of 1947 August was much warmer that year July had a mean of just 69.1 but August had a mean of 77.1.

The average 30 year mean at Grand Rapids is 72.8 with 3.86” of rain fall. The average H/L is stable at 82.8/61.7 on the 1^st and 82.5/62.6 on the 31^st The warmest days on average are between the 9^th and the 16^th with a average H/L of 83.4/62.7. The 15 year average is warmer with the average mean being 73.5 with the daily average H/L of 82.8/62.0 on the 1^st and 83.6/63.2 on the 31^st the warmest days are between the 15^th to the 22^nd with a average a H/L of 84.3/63.6. The 15 year average July rain fall is 3.84”. The warmest means for July are 79.7 in 1921. 79.2 in 2012. 78.7 in 1916. 78.1 in 1901. 77.3 in 1936. Honorable mention goes to 2011 with a mean of 77.0. The coldest means for July are 67.1 in 2009. 67.2 in 1992. 68.1 in 1950. 68.2 in 1996. And 68.4 in 2014. The driest Julys are 0.40” in 1934. 0.46” in 1934. 0.54” in 1898. 0.56” in 1951 and 0.66” in 1930. There has been a total of 13 years when less than 1” of rain fell at Grand Rapids the last time was in 1976. The wettest Julys are 1992 with 8.83”. 1950 with 8.42”. 1994 with 80.7”. 1912 with 7.47” 1917 with 6.91” honorable mention goes to 2006 with 6.90”. The record hottest day was 108 on July 13 1936 it was also 106 on July 12^th that same year. A high of 104 was also recorded in 2012 and 1934 for the hottest days ever recorded at Grand Rapids.  On average there are 5 days of 90 or better in July with the most being 18 in 2012 there have been 12 years of 0 days of 90 or better in July the last time was just last year.  On average there are 11 days of 86 or better in July with the most 27 in 2012 and 1921. In 2009 and 2000 there were no days of 86 or better. The record low for July is 41 on July 6^th 1983.  For the month the mean lowest reading is a cool 49. Over the years it had gotten down into the 40’s in 75 Julys. 

[Hawkeye]

I had my hopes up for possible heavy rain next week, but models are trending north with the ring-of-fire action.  Monday had looked like a big day for Iowa, but now most models show MN/WI/MI.  Southern Iowa may get little or nothing all week.  I hope some of it can bleed down here.

The pleasant weather ends Sunday as dews surge into the 70s Monday and remain there all week.

[Tom]

1 hour ago, Hawkeye said:

I had my hopes up for possible heavy rain next week, but models are trending north with the ring-of-fire action.  Monday had looked like a big day for Iowa, but now most models show MN/WI/MI.  Southern Iowa may get little or nothing all week.  I hope some of it can bleed down here.

The pleasant weather ends Sunday as dews surge into the 70s Monday and remain there all week.

We'll see if this is a trend or just a blip in the modeling.  My experience in these type of situations is for the storms to fire up farther south than what they are modeled to be.  Storms love to track south and closer to the higher temps/DP's.  On the positive side, it does appear that Fireworks displays on Monday may escape the storm threat  around here.

[Tom]

It's a real comfy and beautiful morning 61F/58F with clear skies, no wind and the birds singing....gorgeous start to the 4th of July holiday weekend!  

[Timmy Supercell]

1 hour ago, Tom said:

It's a real comfy and beautiful morning 61F/58F with clear skies, no wind and the birds singing....gorgeous start to the 4th of July holiday weekend!  

72, an occasional downpour and lightning here

[Clinton]

What a way to break a dry pattern, big boomers have rolled through here overnight and are continuing this morning.  A nice storm train through mby, so far 1.8 inches have fallen which makes this the wettest storm of the year for me and more still to come.

[Clinton]

It's great to get some rain this morning but it will make for a hot and humid 4th of July and work week ahead.  Good news though is that the next hot stretch should be short lived as a storm and a strong cool front should be due in around Friday.

[Tom]

34 minutes ago, Clinton said:

What a way to break a dry pattern, big boomers have rolled through here overnight and are continuing this morning.  A nice storm train through mby, so far 1.8 inches have fallen which makes this the wettest storm of the year for me and more still to come.

Mother Nature could be cruel at time, but she can also bring timely blessings!  Even through it’s on a major weekend, I’m sure many farmers are thrilled.  Those vacationing near the Ozarks may not be so happy    Congrats on the score!

[Clinton]

My family was going to have a large get together tonight with some ribs and fireworks, we will gladly push it back a night.  My father in-laws corn was beginning to curl (which is what corn does to protect itself from the heat when it's dry) he is thrilled I'm sure.  Another week without rain and it would have been in big trouble.  The Ozarks should get plenty of heat and sunshine Sunday and Monday, I'll be down there next weekend when it's not quite so crazy lol.

[Hawkeye]

1 hour ago, Clinton said:

What a way to break a dry pattern, big boomers have rolled through here overnight and are continuing this morning.  A nice storm train through mby, so far 1.8 inches have fallen which makes this the wettest storm of the year for me and more still to come.

You must live farther south than I thought.  The map shows Warrensburg on highway 50, but this morning's heavy rain has fallen south of the town.

[westMJim]

07/02/2022

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 86/60 there was no rain fall and with a lot of clouds only 34% of sunshine.  The overnight low in MBY was 57 and at the current time it is clear and 65. For today the average H/L is 83/62 the record high of 98 was in 1910 and the record low of 43 was in 2001. The nest few days look to be very typical summer type weather with a good amount of sunshine and hit and miss showers and thunderstorms.

 

[Clinton]

1 minute ago, Hawkeye said:

You must live farther south than I thought.  The map shows Warrensburg on highway 50, but this morning's heavy rain has fallen south of the town.

Yes I'm about 10 miles south of Warrensburg and 20 miles north of Clinton.  I see the NE corner of my county hasn't done as well.

[Timmy Supercell]

Another thunderstorm rolling in. Since 11pm this is like the 6th cell if you count all the individual little ones coming into the county. Mostly garden variety but still. 

Got dark outside, looks about 8:40pm and not 9am. 

[Clinton]

I'm up to 2.5 inches and rain still falling.  @mlgamerhow much did you get?  I'm seeing reports of 4 inches just south of Topeka.  For what it's worth the 3km NAM was the closes for my area in predicting amounts and the FV3 did sorta ok.

[mlgamer]

30 minutes ago, Clinton said:

I'm up to 2.5 inches and rain still falling.  @mlgamerhow much did you get?  I'm seeing reports of 4 inches just south of Topeka.  For what it's worth the 3km NAM was the closes for my area in predicting amounts and the FV3 did sorta ok.

I'm sitting at 1" this morning and still raining. I've had a nice steady soaking rain for the most part. Missed out on the heavier totals to the south and west (reminds me of most winters..lol).

I bet that 2.5" sure is welcome after that bone dry June you had...

[Timmy Supercell]

Finally caught a close one on video. The flash was a lot brighter than how it was captured (kinda behind where I aimed this). 

 

[Clinton]

17 minutes ago, mlgamer said:

I'm sitting at 1" this morning and still raining. I've had a nice steady soaking rain for the most part. Missed out on the heavier totals to the south and west (reminds me of most winters..lol).

I bet that 2.5" sure is welcome after that bone dry June you had...

It sure is.  I knew this pattern was nothing like 2012 but watching everything go brown so early in the summer had me paranoid. 

[Andie]

Today will be our last day below 100*.  
High of 97*
 

The next 10 days will be 100-104* - cloudless, hot, ugly days.